The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[LonePirate]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

T-3 Friday Comps for Oppenheimer

 

Indy5 - 40-45M

A2 - 30-35M

JWD - 34-39M

MI7 - 40-45M

I think there have been only 13 films so far this year that have had opening weekends larger than the average of these comparisons for Oppenheimer's possible Friday. If it somehow hits above the average of those ranges, there is a chance it could hit $100M for the weekend. I personally don't think it can reach that lofty height at all; but it's still insane that it has even the tiniest of chances. For a three hour period drama starring an actor most people could not identify, this is unprecedented, especially considering another film is likely going to gross between $150M-$200M this weekend. Does Inside Out still hold the record for highest grossing non-#1 opening weekend?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

None of these are perfect because of the timing of the tracking runs, but they should give an idea.

 

T-3 Friday Comps for Oppenheimer

 

Indy5 - 40-45M

A2 - 30-35M

JWD - 34-39M

MI7 - 40-45M

 

Shows how ridiculous some of the predictions are. Especially predicting doom based on preview bump !!!!

 

That said I am not saying its going to hit even the low end. But its going to have a big friday and weekend. 

[ZackM]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shows how ridiculous some of the predictions are. Especially predicting doom based on preview bump !!!!

 

That said I am not saying its going to hit even the low end. But its going to have a big friday and weekend. 

 

Yeah the capacity issues are going to result in a huge spillover into the weekend.

[ZackM]

Just for fun I ran Oppenheimer numbers for Alpha on Sunday and it's already at 130k.  It's gonna have a good weekend.

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

Yeah the capacity issues are going to result in a huge spillover into the weekend.

And weekdays next week at this point. 

The real question is, how much of the older audience will show up for Oppy this weekend (since they are less likely to buy tickets in advance) and how many will stay for something else instead? MI7, another well reviewed flick. SOF which has had big chatter. Or will they opt to see what all the Barbie fuss is about…..

 

Time will tell, but an exciting weekend ahead!

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Just for fun I ran Oppenheimer numbers for Alpha on Sunday and it's already at 130k.  It's gonna have a good weekend.

it has sold over 38K tickets for monday !!! So weekdays will be strong as well. 

[ZackM]

3 hours ago, ZackM said:

I should have final numbers for Alpha Barbie Early Access in the next few hours too.  As of last night nearly 96% of seats had been sold, so I can't wait to see how close it gets to 100%.  It's honestly the most incredible thing I've seen since I've been tracking.  Even taking the small number of screens into account.

 

It turns out 96% of capacity is too much.

 

Total ticket sales for today: -65

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by ZackM

[misterpepp]

On 7/14/2023 at 6:10 PM, LegionWrex said:

Does anybody know when tickets for Meg 2 go on sale?

 

July 25, same day as Demeter.

[LegionWrex]

5 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

July 25, same day as Demeter.

At last. #Meg2Sweep

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

It turns out 96% of capacity is too much.

 

Total ticket sales for today: -65

 

Extrapolating pace data Barbie will end with a negative domestic total, too bad 

[DAJK]

Barbie has surpassed all 2023 opener's TOTAL preview #s in presales already at the theaters I track. Any walk-up that happens in the next 24 hours is just gravy. Really wouldn't be surprised at 25M previews at this point. 

 

Oppenheimer right now has already surpassed John Wick 4's preview TOTAL, and is creeping up on Dominion. 

 

Capacity will limit both of these movies tomorrow; there isn't that much higher they can climb, which is unfortunate. I think we really have something special on our hands.

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	80	7569	10682	3113	29.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	126
Total Seats Sold Today	302

NOTE:  Regal Delta Shores was sampled at approx 6am PDT - all other showings were sampled at 11:45pm Tue night.

 

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	139.60		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	83.30%		8.65m
Dune	178.70		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	106.79%		9.11m
JWD	45.39		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	28.39%		8.17m
BP2	26.10		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	18.53%		7.31m
Ava 2	49.65		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	34.64%		8.44m
Wick 4	97.31		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	57.14%		8.66m
FX	130.63		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	75.52%		9.80m
Indy 5	107.64		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	65.30%		7.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       773/3390  [22.80% sold]
Matinee:          28/81  [34.57% | 0.90% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                       707/776 [+9 tickets] [22.71% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1542/4620 [+143 tickets] [49.53% of all tickets sold]
Standard:            864/5286 [+150 tickets] [27.75% of all tickets sold]

 

=========

 

This was a really meh Tuesday, unfortunately. :---/.

 

Don't know if it was due to lack of screen expansion (literally one — ONE!!! — theater expanded, and that at exactly two showings) or Barbie hogging all the glory or other factors like the in-built fanbase of Nolan finally catching up to the film or it was just a randomly meh day.

 

Can't sugar coat it though.  Just not a great day locally.

 

NB: As noted, Regal Delta Shores was sampled a little after 6am local time, which is so early into the day as to not matter, IMO.

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	80	7152	10859	3707	34.14%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Net Showings Added Today	0
Total Net Seats Added Today	177
Total Seats Sold Today	594

 

T-1 Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	133.06		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		3737	99.20%		8.25m
Dune	175.94		365	2107		0/109	12686/14793	14.24%		2915	127.17%		8.97m
JWD	44.03		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	33.80%		7.93m
BP2	27.21		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	22.07%		7.62m
Ava 2	51.19		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	41.25%		8.70m
Wick 4	94.69		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	68.04%		8.43m
FX	126.61		545	2928		0/243	30319/33247	8.81%		4122	89.93%		9.50m
Indy 5	105.76		613	3505		0/184	21339/24844	14.11%		4767	77.76%		7.61m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:       964/3693  [26.10% sold]
Matinee:          32/81  [39.51% | 0.86% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                   760/776 [+53 tickets] [20.50% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    1766/4557 [+224 tickets] [47.64% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           1181/5526 [+317 tickets] [31.86% of all tickets sold]

 

========

 

Probably converging somewhere on 8m to 9m, if Sacto isn't over-performing to a huge degree thanks to that 15/70mm print (one of which SOLD OUT tonight — with the other only having 16 tickets left).  But even if it is, this is gonna have by far the highest ATP since Ava 2, which might mitigate an over-performance to some degree.

 

Can't even say there wasn't a review bounce, coz I honestly think there was.  Just an utter lack of capacity for desired seats/showtimes/premium screens is holding it back. 

 

Which will be... interesting for tomorrow.  Just how many of the standard seats/less desirable PLF seats will in fact be taken tomorrow?  Hell if I know.  Heck, might even be spillover from Barbie if a desired Barbie showtime looks unappealing for whatever reason. Find out one way or the other in short order.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	244	19827	27443	7616	27.75%

 

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	13
Total Seats Added Today	1732
Total Seats Sold Today	1043

NOTE:  Regal Delta Shores was sampled at approx 6am PDT - all other showings were sampled at between 10:45pm and 11:40pm PDT on Tuesday..

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	87.43		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	66.38%		16.84m
JWD	111.04		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	69.45%		19.99m
BA	296.46		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	169.47%		22.23m
Ava 2	121.47		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	84.75%		20.65m
Scream 6	427.62		268	1781		0/111	11647/13428	13.26%		3134	243.01%		24.37m
Wick 4	238.07		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	139.79%		21.19m
GOTG3	105.94		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	70.85%		18.54m
FX	319.60		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	184.76%		23.97m
TLM	191.74		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	116.08%		19.75m
AtSV	140.96		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	78.16%		24.46m
RotB	304.40		524	2502		0/183	22360/24862	10.06%		4973	153.15%		26.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1740/8660  [20.09% sold]
Matinee:    735/3683  [19.96% | 9.65% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:       390/422 [92.42% sold] [-1 tickets sold]
Thr:    7226/27021 [26.74% sold] [+1044 tickets sold]

 

=======

 

First things first:

 

On Monday (T-3), I accidentally shorted Barbie 61 tickets (67 - 6 = 61), which changes my analysis of the day a bit. 

 

SIDE NOTE:  I really need to buy a new keyboard, apparently.

I noticed this error late last night and already adjusted everything, but for record keeping:

 

T-3: 908 tickets sold

T-2: 1043 tickets sold.

 

Secondly, as I noted in the Oppenheimer post above, I was able to finally get numbers from that troublesome theater at a little after 6am locally (woke up early, saw it was working, promptly got the ticket numbers and went back to sleep), so it should be close enough to the real total as to not change a thing.

(also was pretty damn important to wait for that theater as they sold over a 100 tickets there yesterday)

 

All in all a very nice day. Now we see just how good it'll be these last two days.

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	3	268	20134	29587	9453	31.95%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	3
Total Showings Added Today	24
Total Seats Added Today	2144
Total Seats Sold Today	1837

 

T-1 Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	97.90		945	9656		2/345	33356/43012	22.45%		11474	82.39%		18.86m
JWD	112.28		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	86.20%		20.21m
BA	299.71		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	210.35%		22.48m
Ava 2	130.55		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	105.20%		22.19m
Scream 6	414.79		498	2279		0/116	11326/13605	16.75%		3134	301.63%		23.64m
Wick 4	241.46		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	173.51%		21.49m
GOTG3	113.03		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	87.93%		19.78m
FX	322.85		545	2928		0/243	30319/33247	8.81%		4122	229.33%		24.21m
TLM	190.05		1002	4974		0/225	24182/29156	17.06%		6561	144.08%		19.57m
AtSV	134.37		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	97.01%		23.31m
RotB	275.44		930	3432		0/201	22254/25686	13.36%		4973	190.09%		24.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       2410/10440  [23.08% sold]
Matinee:    1032/4204  [24.55% | 10.92% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:         400/422 [94.79% sold] [+10 tickets sold] [FINAL]
Thr:    9053/29165 [31.04% sold] [+1827 tickets sold]

 

===

 

Right about what I was expecting, tbh, if on the higher end of my expectations.  Probably zeroing in on 21m to 23m unadjusted (up slightly from earlier gun-to-my-head range of 19m to 22m a couple of days ago).  

 

Perhaps not too surprisingly, this is still playing an awful lot like "JWD But With Good-to-Great Reviews". 

 

Current comp against JWD is 112% and today Barbie sold 18% more tickets than JWD did on its T-1.  Should have continued growth against JWD (the new showings, for instance, were filling up rapidly), but then there's that pesky PLF factor to worry about.  Not to mention no 3D (JWD had a decent clip of 3D sales at 11% or so of all sales locally).  Frankly, if it wasn't for that, I'd feel much more comfortable with 23m as a target.

 

Still, no matter how it's sliced, an excellent day for Barbie.  And one that augurs very well for Opening Night.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Porthos
reworded point slightly

[Krissykins]

These all look crazy for Barbie. What a weekend it’s going to be.

 

Hope Oppenheimer can open in the 70’s, we’ve had several 60m openers already this summer. 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-2, Milton, ON

 

Back to a steady 20% jump to 290. I'd like to have seen higher, but, with full weekend showtimes added, people would have had the option to pick near empty Friday or Saturday showings last night instead.

 

Sales are now ahead of final GOTG3 numbers.

 

11.154x of TLM for $114.9M

1.368x of ATSV for $23.7M

1.480x of MI7 for $10.4M

 

I should restate the reasons for my comps.

 

TLM is on there as the only female blockbuster, even though it crashed and burned locally. It had strong walk ups though, so that number should look different by the end.

 

MI7 is there because it's the highest selling comp I have. It also almost doubled on walk ups. It overindexed here, so the dollar value is fairly meaningless, but I want to see if it can stay ahead in terms of raw admissions.

 

ATSV is there because it's the one that Barbie has probably followed the closest. But, it lagged initially and now outperforming. It's walk ups were muted, partly by capacity.

 

Barbie T-1, Milton, ON

 

Sales up 34% to 388. This is ahead of anything I've tracked at my theatre, including Super Mario opening day. I've added SM and GOTG3 as comps because I tracked those at T-1 and final sales.

 

On top of Barbie just doing really well, I have to think that part of this is summer impact. Maybe the late closure of schools here (June 30th was last day), that we're seeing a bigger effect for July movies. MI7 did crazy business here too.

 

I think we'll see strong walk up sales, especially as people realize that it's easier to get a ticket tonight than tomorrow night.

 

13.379x of TLM for $137.8M

1.522x of ATSV for $26.4M

1.432x of MI7 for $10.0M

1.213x of Mario for $38.4M

2.075x of GOTG3 for $36.3M

 

Not much else to say other than this is doing really well here, and seems comparable to the general area.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

 

T-2 Oppenheimer, Milton, ON

 

Another strong day, just not supercharged like yesterday. Sales up 24% to 166.

 

It's very concentrated towards to plf screen, which isn't a surprise.

 

Notable, in the area, as new showtimes were announced into next week, people were literally waiting to pounce on them for the IMAX 70mm screenings. I was on a Cineplex subreddit, and people were waiting for updates and any new showing in that format was selling well right away.

 

2.635x of Fast X for $19.8M

0.783x of ATSV for $13.6M

3.074x of Flash for $29.8M

0.572x of Barbie for ???

 

T-1 Oppenheimer, Milton, ON

 

As good as Barbie is doing, Oppenheimer really is staying pace with it really well. Sales up 22% to reach 203. Well ahead of the films that it should be closest with, and more comparable to bigger blockbuster fare. And while my theatre has it on a plf, there are three IMAX screens within a 20Km radius (including a 70mm format) so I assumed that would absorb a lot of demand. 

 

2.671x of Fast X for $20.0M

0.796x of ATSV for $13.8M

2.707x of Flash for $26.2M

0.523x of Barbie for ???

 

 

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Really getting clamped by lack of screens.  Was hoping to see way more added this week.

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	354	252	5	16	51
Seats Added	38,456	29,209	1,187	2,426	6,296
Seats Sold	13,868	11,661	7,651	5,127	4,706
7/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	2,130	117,307	358,862	32.69%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	39	137	296	422
ATP	Gross
$18.41	$2,159,622

 

Still chugging along, but I just don't know how strong walkups can be when it's already at 38% capacity.

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	39	354	252	5	16
Seats Added	3,875	38,456	29,209	1,187	2,426
Seats Sold	19,374	13,868	11,661	7,651	5,127
7/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	2,169	136,681	362,737	37.68%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	57	187	364	516
ATP	Gross
$18.18	$2,484,861

 

 

Oppenheimer Comps
	Indy 5		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Flash
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1	$13.2	$13.5	$16.2	$17.3	$11.3	$11.4
T-2	$12.8	$13.1	$16.0	$17.2	$11.0	$11.2
T-3	$12.9	$13.1	$16.1	$17.2	$11.1	$11.2
T-4	$12.7	$13.0	$15.9	$17.1	$10.9	$11.0
T-5	$12.6	$12.9	$15.9	$17.1	$10.6	$10.7
T-6	$12.5	$12.8	$16.1	$17.3
T-7	$12.4	$12.7	$16.2	$17.4
T-8	$12.0	$12.3	$15.9	$17.1	$10.0	$10.1
T-9	$11.8	$12.1	$15.8	$17.0	$9.8	$9.9
T-10	$11.4	$11.8	$15.4	$16.6	$9.1	$9.2
T-11	$11.0	$11.4	$14.9	$16.0
T-12	$10.8	$11.2	$14.6	$15.8
T-13	$10.6	$11.0	$14.4	$15.5
T-14	$10.5	$10.9	$14.2	$15.3
T-15	$10.4	$10.8	$14.1	$15.2	$8.5	$8.5

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	1,006	624	54	82	203
Seats Added	122,030	79,586	7,383	11,724	25,954
Seats Sold	31,753	25,344	16,443	10,857	11,474
7/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	4,510	205,814	660,291	31.17%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	72	264	587	1,014
ATP	Gross
$15.91	$3,274,501

 

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
7/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,800	20,668	95.80%
ATP	Gross
$21.12	$418,176

 

 

Bigger day than everything other than NWH.

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	166	1,006	624	54	82
Seats Added	14,965	122,030	79,586	7,383	11,724
Seats Sold	42,664	31,753	25,344	16,443	10,857
7/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	4,676	248,478	675,256	36.80%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	94	333	776	1,318
ATP	Gross
$15.74	$3,911,044

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
7/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,735	20,668	95.49%
ATP	Gross
$21.11	$416,606

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-1	Jax	6	90	406	2,492	10,347	24.08%
		Phx	7	87	397	2,503	12,636	19.81%
		Ral	8	84	407	2,853	9,501	30.03%
	Total		21	261	1,210	7,848	32,484	24.16%
Barbie (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	3	0	277	319	86.83%
		Phx	1	1	2	203	208	97.60%
		Ral	2	2	3	186	190	97.89%
	Total		5	6	5	666	717	92.89%
Oppenheimer	T-1	Jax	6	31	170	1,229	5,381	22.84%
		Phx	6	27	126	1,052	4,102	25.65%
		Ral	8	34	162	1,138	3,913	29.08%
	Total		20	92	458	3,419	13,396	25.52%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  It was back online yesterday and had sold more tickets but it is back down for maintenance.

 

Oppenheimer T-1 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .497x (8.94m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .605x (8.89m)

 - Avatar 2 - .554x (9.42m)

 - Dune - 1.94x (9.89m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.789x (12.88m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.42x (12.49m)

 - Eternals - 1.001x (9.506m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .402x

 

Size adjusted average - 10.2m

 

Oppenheimer pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Oppenheimer	55.83%	24.07%	25.57%	15.47%
JW3 Total			15.73%	17.48%
Top Gun 2	62.60%	25.37%	14.92%	20.77%
Avatar 2	44.81%	20.44%	19.99%	15.65%
Dune			21.41%	16.99%
Indiana Jones	52.39%	27.83%	9.3 9%	16.10%
M:I 7 Total	54.72%	29.16%	18.13%	17.17%

T = Today

Last day was (slightly) below all comps.  As others have mentioned, capacity is going to be an issue, but it should help spread out sales over the weekend.  Going back to my 9m prediction due to lack of availability.

 

Barbie (Total) T-1 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.379x (23.45m)

 - JWD (Total) - 1.237x (22.27m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - 1.132x (21.85m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 27.38x (19.98m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.434x (20.61m)

 - Eternals - 2.492x (23.67m)

 - Oppenheimer - 2.49x

 

Size adjusted average - 22.84m

 

Barbie pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Barbie Total	59.02%	29.40%	34.15%	16.65%
Avatar 2	44.81%	20.44%	19.99%	15.65%
JW3 Total			15.73%	17.48%
Top Gun 2 Total	49.22%	21.84%	15.25%	15.92%
I Wanna Dance	77.71%	20.00%	23.57%	18.25%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Eternals	38.34%	15.95%	19.75%	13.26%

T = Today

 

Another pretty good day.  Last day is in line with comps.

 

Barbie (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.272x (21.62m)

 - JW3 - 1.3x (23m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.389x (20.41m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 25.24x (18.42m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.166x (18.99m)

 - Eternals - 2.297x (21.82m)

 

Size adjusted average - 21.89m

 

Barbie (Thu) pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Barbie	66.10%	32.63%	38.64%	18.23%
Avatar 2	44.81%	20.44%	19.99%	15.65%
JW3			16.55%	19.39%
Top Gun 2	62.60%	25.37%	14.92%	20.77%
I Wanna Dance	77.71%	20.00%	23.57%	18.25%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Eternals	38.34%	15.95%	19.75%	13.26%

 

Top Gun and Transformers (+70.8%) are the closest comps I've got for 3-day pace at this level.  Had some higher (F9 at +75.7%, Sonic 2 at +80.9%, and Venom 2 at +101%!).  Transformers comp right now is at 36.03m so I didn't really see a point in including it.  

 

 

All in all, I'm not changing my prediction which is still at 20m for Thursday (excl EA). 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Barbie	T-0	Jax	6	98	480	2,972	12,142	24.48%
		Phx	7	87	584	3,087	12,636	24.43%
		Ral	8	97	603	3,456	10,941	31.59%
	Total		21	282	1,667	9,515	35,719	26.64%
Barbie (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	3	0	277	319	86.83%
		Phx	1	1	2	203	208	97.60%
		Ral	2	2	3	186	190	97.89%
	Total		5	6	5	666	717	92.89%
Oppenheimer	T-0	Jax	6	31	260	1,489	5,381	27.67%
		Phx	6	28	276	1,328	4,141	32.07%
		Ral	8	36	296	1,434	4,059	35.33%
	Total		20	95	832	4,251	13,581	31.30%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - the shows for this weekend have been removed.  Here's what I could find online.  I left the tickets sold in the counts (164 for Barbie, 55 for Oppenheimer) for better or worse.  

 

Oppenheimer T-0 comps

 - JWD (Total) - .515x (9.27m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .63x (9.26m)

 - Avatar 2 - .582x (9.89m)

 - Dune - 1.922x (9.8m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.767x (12.72m)

 - Mission Impossible 7 (Total) - 1.349x (11.87m)

 - Eternals - 1.025x (9.74m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .418x

All R movies - 14.26m

All dramas - 10.79m

All movies - 12.71m

 

Size adjusted average from comps - 10.33m

New model forecast - 10.07m

 

Oppenheimer pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Oppenheimer	70.52%	25.83%	24.82%	24.33%
JW3 Total	64.37%	23.59%	15.92%	19.98%
Top Gun 2	70.31%	28.66%	17.93%	19.44%
Avatar 2	53.37%	22.67%	21.91%	18.36%
Dune	87.62%			25.47%
Shang-Chi	65.77%	28.51%	24.87%	22.99%
M:I 7 Total	75.01%	33.48%	20.45%	30.84%
Eternals	55.98%	16.89%	18.97%	21.33%

T = Today

 

Well well well.  I was expecting this to slow down as shows were filling up, but yesterday was ahead of most of the comps and pretty close to my main comp of Dune.  Oppy just broke my T-0 morning record for an R-rated movie, just edging out The Matrix 4 (4,123) which was opening day.  I've been hesitant to raise my prediction all week, but after seeing these numbers, I will finally bump up to an impressive 9.9m!  

 

Barbie (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.303x (22.14m)

 - JW3 - 1.285x (22.74m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.409x (20.72m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 23.91x (17.45m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.257x (19.54m)

 - Eternals - 2.295x (21.8m)

 - Don't Worry - 8.818x (27.34m)*

 - Super Mario (OD) - .88x (27.89m)*

All PG-13 movies - 27.68m

All comedy movies - 28.74m

All 3pm previews movies - 25.1m

All movies - 28.44m

 

Size adjusted average - 22.4m

New model forecast - 20.88m

 

Barbie (Thu) pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Barbie	73.13%	31.55%	36.95%	21.24%
Avatar 2	53.37%	22.67%	21.91%	18.36%
JW3	74.57%	26.30%	16.76%	22.63%
Top Gun 2	70.31%	28.66%	17.93%	19.44%
I Wanna Dance	99.00%	21.00%	24.05%	27.97%
Fantastic Beasts 3	55.62%	30.37%	30.83%	17.83%
Eternals	55.98%	16.89%	18.97%	21.33%

 

Quote

At 4,792 total tickets sold, Barbie has passed the T-0 morning sample of all but 12 movies I've tracked.  Not sure where it will end up, but I'd wager in the 11k-12k range that morning (around Batman's total with EA).  

 

Barbie didn't quite reach my goal from T-5 to now, but it did finish in 5th for most preview sales at T-0 for PG-13 movies.  No surprise that the four that beat it were all Marvel pics (NWH 31k, Dr Strange 20.7k, BP2 14.1k and Thor 4 13.3k).  I'd love to throw out a 22-23m prediction, but those high comps (Avatar 2, JW3, Top Gun) were all helped by a much higher ATP.  The good news is that theaters are still adding shows so there shouldn't be any fear of capacity being reached and walkups should still be great.  That being said, I'll put my morning forecast at 21m (excluding EA). 

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,143
Sold - 173,922
Total - 704,930
ATP - $16.82

 

Saturday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,128
Sold - 170,344
Total - 706,049
ATP - $16.19
 

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,185
Sold - 205,521
Total - 708,789
ATP - $16.57
 

Saturday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,186
Sold - 200,553
Total - 711,833
ATP - $16.00