The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Talk To Me

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
32	131	5408	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.048x) of Boogeyman

~$1.15M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Talk To Me

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
32	133	5408	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.911x) of Boogeyman

~$1.00M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

GRAN TURISMO

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
96	33	16828	0.19%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-21

 

Disney springs has not listed showings yet, so sales will be low for now

 

EA Wednesday = 19 sold 

 

Not even going to include Fast X comp right now because lol ($189k comp)

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/19/2023 at 4:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Thursday

93 Showings

4937

+1254

13968

0.920

AtSV T-1

15.97M

 

T-2 Friday

203 Showings

7419

+1445

26723

1.246

AtSV T-2

43.00M

 

T-3 Saturday

201 Showings

5933

+1135

26114

1.753

AtSV T-3

65.57M

 

T-4 Sunday

185 Showings

3643

+885

24745

2.533

AtSV T-4

79.17M

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Thursday

79 Showings

6538

+1601

11800

0.773

AtSV T-0

13.41M

 

T-1 Friday

203 Showings

9532

+2113

26833

1.101

AtSV T-1

38.00M

 

T-2 Saturday

201 Showings

7764

+1831

26284

1.570

AtSV T-2

58.72M

 

T-3 Sunday

185 Showings

5118

+1475

26854

2.411

AtSV T-3

75.34M

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/19/2023 at 4:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday

129 Showings

10164

+1618

16022

ATP:

16.49

0.967	Avatar 2 T-1	16.44M
0.463	Thor L&T T-1	13.43M
0.892	JW Dominion T-1	16.05M

 

T-2 Friday

252 Showings

14758

+2371

29923

ATP:

15.50

1.043	Avatar 2 T-2	37.76M
0.724	Thor L&T T-2	29.35M
1.023	JW Dominion T-2	42.55M

 

T-3 Saturday

255 Showings

16864

+2340

30616

ATP:

15.45

1.124	Avatar 2 T-3	49.81M
0.887	Thor L&T T-3	37.33M
1.248	JW Dominion T-3	58.54M

 

T-4 Sunday

246 Showings

12449

+1969

29862

ATP:

15.60

1.292	Avatar 2 T-4	47.27M
1.076	Thor L&T T-4	34.96M
1.560	JW Dominion T-4	60.21M

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Thursday

129 Showings

11430

+1266

15024

ATP:

16.09

0.883	Avatar 2 T-0	15.02M
0.426	Thor L&T T-0	12.36M
0.741	JW Dominion T-0	13.33M

 

T-1 Friday

253 Showings

17129

+2371

29958

ATP:

15.17

1.041	Avatar 2 T-1	37.67M
0.688	Thor L&T T-1	27.92M
0.964	JW Dominion T-1	40.11M

 

T-2 Saturday

256 Showings

19155

+2291

30656

ATP:

15.24

1.116	Avatar 2 T-2	49.46M
0.845	Thor L&T T-2	35.58M
1.174	JW Dominion T-2	55.05M

 

T-3 Sunday

247 Showings

14527

+2078

29902

ATP:

15.34

1.335	Avatar 2 T-3	48.82M
1.075	Thor L&T T-3	34.93M
1.510	JW Dominion T-3	58.30M

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/19/2023 at 4:17 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

749

1455

51.48%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

809

1782

45.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4106	512	12056	34.06%	13	76

 

0.882	AtSV T-1	15.31M
0.695	Avatar 2 T-1	11.81M
0.453	Thor L&T T-1	13.15M
0.815	JW Dominion T-1	14.66M
1.791	Dune T-1	9.14M

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

924

1455

63.51%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

997

1782

55.95%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5759	1653	12056	47.77%	13	76

 

0.870	AtSV T-0	15.09M
0.759	Avatar 2 T-0	12.91M
0.471	Thor L&T T-0	13.65M
0.805	JW Dominion T-0	14.49M
1.753	Dune T-0	8.94M

 

Missed some showings for Emagine and Drafthouse, but doesn't really matter since it's overperforming at both chains anyways. Only comp I'm gonna trust is the Dune one, so I'll go with 9M

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

924

1455

63.51%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

997

1782

55.95%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5759	1653	12056	47.77%	13	76

 

0.870	AtSV T-0	15.09M
0.759	Avatar 2 T-0	12.91M
0.471	Thor L&T T-0	13.65M
0.805	JW Dominion T-0	14.49M
1.753	Dune T-0	8.94M

 

Missed some showings for Emagine and Drafthouse, but doesn't really matter since it's overperforming at both chains anyways. Only comp I'm gonna trust is the Dune one, so I'll go with 9M

[vafrow]

14 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-1, Milton, ON

 

Sales up 34% to 388. This is ahead of anything I've tracked at my theatre, including Super Mario opening day. I've added SM and GOTG3 as comps because I tracked those at T-1 and final sales.

 

On top of Barbie just doing really well, I have to think that part of this is summer impact. Maybe the late closure of schools here (June 30th was last day), that we're seeing a bigger effect for July movies. MI7 did crazy business here too.

 

I think we'll see strong walk up sales, especially as people realize that it's easier to get a ticket tonight than tomorrow night.

 

13.379x of TLM for $137.8M

1.522x of ATSV for $26.4M

1.432x of MI7 for $10.0M

1.213x of Mario for $38.4M

2.075x of GOTG3 for $36.3M

 

Not much else to say other than this is doing really well here, and seems comparable to the general area.

 

Barbie T-0, Milton, ON

 

Early show update

 

At close of early show, walk ups have lead to 38% increase so far to get to 535 seats so far. I feel pretty confident it'll surpass Mario for highest ticket sales for openers I've tracked.

 

7.230x of TLM for $74.5M

1.579x of ATSV for $27.4M

1.005x of MI7 for $7.0M

0.959x of Mario for $27.4M

2.027x of GOTG3 for $35.5M

 

My numbers don't really align well to others, and Canada seems to operate very differently than the US it seems. However, if the Canadian market is just a rounding error to the domestic total, I'd round up.

 

I'll check in with numbers as final show approaches close.

[DAJK]

I just want to point out, that whatever happens this weekend, the one thing that is obvious is that THIS thread is probably the BEST box office tracking page on the entire internet (at least for information that is made publicly available). This page called Barbie over 100M weeks before any of the trades did, and has been calling 150 for weeks now, again, way before any of the trades did.

 

Again and again I am reminded how valuable this community is. Every single tracker on here provides an incredible service, because without every single data point we have, the overall picture wouldn’t be as clear. I think every single person here needs to give themselves a pat on the back, after an incredible run over the last few months. Very well deserved, and I’m sure this weekend will be a huge success for all of you.

[vafrow]

15 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

T-1 Oppenheimer, Milton, ON

 

As good as Barbie is doing, Oppenheimer really is staying pace with it really well. Sales up 22% to reach 203. Well ahead of the films that it should be closest with, and more comparable to bigger blockbuster fare. And while my theatre has it on a plf, there are three IMAX screens within a 20Km radius (including a 70mm format) so I assumed that would absorb a lot of demand. 

 

2.671x of Fast X for $20.0M

0.796x of ATSV for $13.8M

2.707x of Flash for $26.2M

0.523x of Barbie for ???

 

 

 

T-0 Oppenheimer, Milton, ON

 

Oppenheimer continues to be really strong, for a film that only was available for pre-sales from last Thursday. It's doubled the comps I threw at it, and now comparable to things like ATSV that was a monster performer here.

 

Early sales figure of 297 tickets, up 46% from the morning.

 

This has 2 screens, but, only three screenings ( 2 early evening, one late)

 

 

2.160x of Fast X for $16.2M

0.873x of ATSV for $15.1M

2.467x of Flash for $23.9M

0.553x of Barbie for ???

 

With MI7 doing really well here after a month of things underindexing, I think I'm more confused about my market. Maybe people in my area really are into the Barbieheimer concept.

Edited July 21, 2023 by vafrow

[vale9001]

17 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I just want to point out, that whatever happens this weekend, the one thing that is obvious is that THIS thread is probably the BEST box office tracking page on the entire internet (at least for information that is made publicly available). This page called Barbie over 100M weeks before any of the trades did, and has been calling 150 for weeks now, again, way before any of the trades did.

 

Again and again I am reminded how valuable this community is. Every single tracker on here provides an incredible service, because without every single data point we have, the overall picture wouldn’t be as clear. I think every single person here needs to give themselves a pat on the back, after an incredible run over the last few months. Very well deserved, and I’m sure this weekend will be a huge success for all of you.

 

Yeah official trackers and journalists are basically a week later to this forum and thread.

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	3	271	19233	29816	10583	35.49%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	3
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	229
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1130

 

T-0 (Mid-Day)

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM [11:30-12:30]	102.12		707	10363		2/345	32649/43012	24.09%		11474	92.23%		19.67m
JWD [1200-12:50]	111.52		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	96.51%		20.07m
BA [11:35-12:25]	292.35		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	235.49%		21.93m
Ava 2 [11:30-12:15]	133.84		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	117.77%		22.75m
Scrm6 [12:05-12:25]	406.57		324	2603		0/118	11473/14076	18.49%		3134	337.68%		23.17m
Wick4 [11:45-12:20]	243.57		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	194.25%		21.68m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	115.05		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	98.45%		20.13m
FX [11:30-12:05]	310.81		477	3405		0/243	29842/33247	10.24%		4122	256.74%		23.31m
TLM [11:40-12:15]	188.88		629	5603		0/225	23553/29156	19.22%		6561	161.30%		19.45m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	131.17		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	108.61%		22.76m
RotB [11:40-12:10]	270.04		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4973	212.81%		23.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      2794/10440  [26.76% sold]
Matinee:    1223/4204  [29.09% | 11.56% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:          400/422 [94.79% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:    10183/29394 [34.64% sold] [+1130 tickets sold]

 

===

 

Slightly under JWD's Mid-Day pace, but also sampled about 30 minutes earlier.  Comps will prob come between 20.5m to 22m when all is said and done and probably looking at 20m to 21m after PLF/3D adjustments are made.  Just depends on how strong those walkups are the rest of the day.

 

Will also probably look at other films which didn't have 3Dn as I'm concerned that some of the GA-skewed films here have too high of an ATP, if I have the time (which I actually might!).

 

No real time for other thoughts, I'm afraid (already late with this as it is).

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:30pm]

* NOTE:  All showtimes before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of their screening.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	4	274	17904	29981	12077	40.28%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	3
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	165
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1494

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic2 [3:55-4:15]	305.67		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	305.67%		19.10m
TGM [3:30-4:45]	105.26		1111	11474		2/345	31538/43012	26.68%		11474	105.26%		20.27m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	110.13		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	110.13%		19.82m
BA [3:50-4:30]	268.74		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	268.74%		20.16m
Scrm6 [4:20-4:40]	385.35		531	3134		0/121	11402/14536	21.56%		3134	385.35%		21.97m
Wick4 [3:50-4:15]	221.68		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	221.68%		19.73m
GOTG [3:45-4:30]	112.34		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	112.34%		19.66m
FX [3:50-4:15]	292.99		717	4122		0/243	29125/33247	12.40%		4122	292.99%		21.97m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	184.07		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	184.07%		18.96m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	123.94		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	123.94%		21.50m
RotB [3:50-4:15]	242.85		1054	4973		0/202	20839/25812	19.27%		4973	242.85%		21.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      3321/10440  [31.81% sold]
Matinee:    1509/4204  [35.89% | 12.49% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:          400/422 [94.79% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:    11677/29559 [39.50% sold] [+1494 tickets sold]

 

================

 

Removed the Avatar 2 comp as it is the absolute most unsuitable comp I could have and replaced it with Sonic 2.

 

So the great news for Barbie is that it has strong sales all the way into the 10pm hour, which bodes well not only for the weekend, but for tonight's preview number.  The not-as-great news is capacity.  Even with all the added showtimes, it still was running into "I don't want to buy aisle seats/first few rows" problems.  Also, just looks like Sacramento might be under-performing for whatever reason.

 

Of the comps I have, for pace, JWD is obviously the best.  But while there's been ATP hikes since last year, the PLF/3D difference is stark.  On the other hand, comps like AtSV are painting a rosier picture.  And maybe there wasn't as much early access here as other places + no Dolby theaters to speak of to help with PLF.

 

Still, have to call it like I see it locally, so let's go with 20.25m +/- 1.25m.

[The Dude]

As a new member on this forum I have to say, thank you all for providing such valuable information during the last few weeks. It has been an amazing ride and every night I looked forward to checking in on this thread. Thank you! Enjoy this amazing weekend, because it’s a special one.

Edited July 20, 2023 by The Dude

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:15pm - 12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	80	6785	10859	4074	37.52%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	367

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	131.89		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	109.02%		8.18m
Dune [12:00-12:20]	170.39		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	139.76%		8.69m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	42.93		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	37.15%		7.73m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	27.63		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	24.25%		7.74m
Ava 2 [11:30-12:15]	51.52		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	45.34%		8.76m
Wick4 [11:45-12:15]	93.76		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	74.78%		8.34m
FX [11:30-12:05]	119.65		477	3405		0/243	29842/33247	10.24%		4122	98.84%		8.97m
Indy 5 [11:45-12:15]	102.28		478	3983		0/183	20730/24713	16.12%		4767	85.46%		7.36m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:     1083/3693  [29.33% sold]
Matinee:          38/81  [46.91% | 0.93% of all tickets sold]
----    
70mm:                    776/776    [+16 tickets] [19.05% of all tickets sold] [SOLD OUT]
All other PLF:     1892/4557  [+126 tickets] [46.44% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           1406/5526 [+225 tickets] [34.51% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeaaah, this is getting squeezed.  Standard sales aren't even that bad!  Just a horrendous screen crunch.  Comps will prob point to somewhere between 7.75m to 8.5m.  Not getting anymore sales out of Esquire IMAX is gonna hurt though.

 

Oppenheimer Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:30pm - 4:40pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	80	6238	10859	4621	42.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

547

 

 

T-0 Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	123.66		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	123.66%		7.67m
Dune [5:10-5:30]	158.52		524	2915		0/109	11878/14793	19.71%		2915	158.52%		8.08m
JWD [13:45-4:35]	42.14		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	42.14%		7.59m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	27.51		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	27.51%		7.70m
Ava 2 [3:50-4:25]	51.42		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	51.42%		8.74m
Wick4 [3:50-4:15]	84.82		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	84.82%		7.55m
FX [3:50-4:15]	112.11		717	4122		0/243	29125/33247	12.40%		4122	112.11%		8.41m
Indy 5 [3:50-4:20]	96.94		784	4767		0/183	20009/24776	19.24%		4767	96.94%		6.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Oppenheimer's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:     1253/3693  [33.93% sold]
Matinee:          40/81  [49.38% | 0.87% of all tickets sold]
----     
70mm:                    776/776 [SOLD OUT]   [16.79% of all tickets sold]
All other PLF:    2095/4557 [+203 tickets] [45.34% of all tickets sold]
Standard:           1750/5526 [+344 tickets] [37.87% of all tickets sold]

 

Capacity, capacity, capacity.  No other way to put it, especially when noting that the 10pm+ showtimes aren't filling up yet.  Lots has already been said about this film, so no real need to repeat it. With all of the factors in play, be a minor miracle if this is accurate, but the recent comps BP2 and later* say 8.2m +/- .5m and who am I to disagree?

* Aside from Indy 5

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

And after two and a half months of tracking hell:

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

Over 40% of seats sold for both Barbie and Oppy in sacto's sample. Yeah, capacity is an issue 

[Bob-omb]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

And after two and a half months of tracking hell:

 

 

You can always do Blue Beetle  Thank you so much for your work and explanations for newbies.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Bob-omb

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

You can always do Blue Beetle  Thank you so much for your work and explanations for newbies.

 

Good news is that counting Blue Beetle sales won't be as complicated.

 

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Bob-omb said:

You can always do Blue Beetle

 

 

======

 

Ftr, I will be posting the occasional Quick and Dirty (including *TWO* tonight ).

 

But regular full bore tracking? 

 

Probably gonna be a while.

[Ryan Reynolds]

people mention capacity issues , maybe impact Barbie more if some go in groups of ten and want to sit together

[poweranimals]

I just heard that Dune 2 might get pushed to 2024.

 

Edit: Here we go.

 

'Dune 2' Release Date May Shift to 2024 As Labor Strikes Rage On - Variety

Edited July 21, 2023 by poweranimals