The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

34 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I’m assuming RoTB had strong late growth in Ontario. If so, RoTB comp should start to fall fast and get closer to the Flash comp 

 

The growth on ROTB for me was in the walk ups. So, it should stay steady until then. Flash started picking up around now, so that'll probably drop. 

 

Ontario also had schools in session right up until end of June, so, Thursday demand should be stronger for an August release.

 

With my tracking initially all at a very local level, its insufficient data for the most part.

 

I've swung the other way by tracking 30-40 theatres, but my method is manual counts. I'm hoping it gives more consistent trends, but, overall, I think the conclusion that the Canadian market just operates very differently holds very true. 

 

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

 but I'm completely lost as to who the target audience for that joke is supposed to be.

At the risk of getting political... ACAB Millennials and Gen-Zers, presumably.

 

ETA to explain:  "Batman is a cop" is definitely a meme in some social circles (taken to varying degrees of seriousness).  So riffing on that sounds like what this is referencing.

 

Fairly targeted joke, but there you are.

 

 

Edited August 13, 2023 by Porthos

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Apologies for the really scarce info, I get what Cineplex gives me.

 

Strays

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs Aug 17 (no friday presales yet it seems)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	1	3	11	220	231	0.0476

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	3	9	2	1016	1018	0.0019

 

This is literally what I get for my counts for presales. Apparently Friday sales are verboten at the moment out west for Strays. And for the Thurs shows, of the theatres I regularly track, these are it. 

 

I know August is a tough month, but wow this is....looking at empty theatres and lack of theatres doing presales for upcoming films is hard. Im guessing stuff like Barbie and Oppenheimer theatres are just continuing to keep those shows on the a lot of screens, and guess leaving stuff like BB, GT and now Strays just kind of grabbing whatever scraps they can

 

I didn't even think to check Strays in my area, as it's not playing in my local.

 

I checked my southern Ontario radius, and it's worse than you'd probably guess.

 

Across 28 theatres and 84 showtimes that have it open for Thursday previews across that full GTA and southern western radius up to London, it's only at 21 tickets sold.

 

I didn't record my numbers for it, but this is around what I was seeing for Ruby Gillman. 

 

I should include this as a comp for my next Blue Beetle update. BB is doing 20x the sales.

[filmlover]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

At the risk of getting political... ACAB Millennials and Gen-Zers, presumably.

 

ETA to explain:  "Batman is a cop" is definitely a meme in some social circles (taken to varying degrees of seriousness).  So riffing on that sounds like what this is referencing.

 

Fairly targeted joke, but there you are.

 

 

I mean, I figured it was aimed at a very small portion of Twitter but do even they find it funny lol? Reminds me of when the Oscars made a "has anyone heard of this movie?" joke during the ceremony at the expense of...The Last Duel, of all movies. Such is the rut that humor circa the 2020s has found itself stuck in, I guess.

 

Speaking of which, Strays is arriving in less than a week and has no buzz of any kind. Probably not a surprise considering it looks like it would've appeared like a fresh idea about a decade or so ago when the "what if your favorite kids movies were rated R?" comedy concept wasn't nearly as rote.

[vafrow]

33 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mean, I figured it was aimed at a very small portion of Twitter but do even they find it funny lol? Reminds me of when the Oscars made a "has anyone heard of this movie?" joke during the ceremony at the expense of...The Last Duel, of all movies. Such is the rut that humor circa the 2020s has found itself stuck in, I guess.

 

Speaking of which, Strays is arriving in less than a week and has no buzz of any kind. Probably not a surprise considering it looks like it would've appeared like a fresh idea about a decade or so ago when the "what if your favorite kids movies were rated R?" comedy concept wasn't nearly as rote.

 

To be fair, every type of comedy would have done better 10 years ago. I think studios are trying every angle to see if anything still works in the genre.

 

And Strays seems to have some of the worst luck. One of the key benefits it had was a pretty strong cast of well known celebrities that would have made the talk show rounds.

 

Instead, they're forced to push off due to being in a crowded release date and clearly some serious health concerns around Jamie Foxx.

 

It gets pushed off to the strike impacted period where there's no benefit from the cast doing PR, but you're also dealing with Jamie Foxx with a PR scandal due to anti semetic social media posts.

 

Basically, it's a movie that they had to hope that a lot of things go right for them, that basically went the other way.

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/10/2023 at 6:13 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	56	66	191	10782	1.77

 

Comp:

0.88x Turtles (Just Tuesday): $3.4 Million

 

Strays (T-7):

Day: T-7,T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	42	6	28	4290	0.65
Wednesday EA: 13 theaters	13	13	22	1359	1.62
TOTALS:	55	19	50	5649	0.89

 

Comp (Total):

0.68x Joy Ride w/ EA: $753k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	56	45	236	10782	2.19

 

Pretty bad growth, an average of 15 tickets per day sold. Much has been said about the Latino potential for this movie, but in a metro with a very low % of the population being Latino, we might see the flip side of that. We'll see what late growth looks like these last few days.

 

Strays (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	42	9	37	4290	0.86
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	12	34	1499	2.27
TOTALS:	56	21	71	5789	1.23

 

Comps:

0.64x Joy Ride w/ EA: $705k

0.67x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.44 Million

 

It's not looking good, tickets for NHF were on sale much later so its growth rate will eclipse Strays, this needs a good review bump or it's DOA.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	300	24786	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.940x) of Asteroid City

~$1.03M THUR Previews

 

(0.150x) of Haunted Mansion

~$465k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $747k

 

Looks like a sold out showing listed on fandango wasn't actually sold out lol. 11 seats sold today, but total tix sold is 300 now that the showing can be scraped. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	310	24786	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.909x) of Asteroid City

~$1M THUR Previews

 

(0.149x) of Haunted Mansion

~$464k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $732k

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/12/2023 at 6:23 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	1029	28836	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.318x) of The Flash

~$3.09M THUR Previews 

 

(0.409x) of Indy 5

~$2.94M THUR Previews

 

(0.535x) of Fast X

~$4.01M THUR Previews

 

(0.518x) of RoTB 

~$4.55M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.64M previews 

 

Semi-solid day, all things considered. 

 

Pace T-6 to T-5 

Blue beetle 5% increase

RoTB 9.11% increase

Fast X 5.32% increase

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	1067	28836	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

38

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.318x) of The Flash

~$3.09M THUR Previews 

 

(0.408x) of Indy 5

~$2.94M THUR Previews

 

(0.530x) of Fast X

~$3.97M THUR Previews

 

(0.487x) of RoTB 

~$4.28M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.57M previews 

 

Still falling against comps. 

Edited August 13, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon]

@TheFlatLannister

 

What's Blue Beetle's current pace against The Flash? (T-4)?

[HummingLemon]

This is looking like a $20-25M opening weekend. Don't see how it breaks even off an opening so low.

[TheFlatLannister]

7 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@TheFlatLannister

 

What's Blue Beetle's current pace against The Flash? (T-4)?

Blue Beetle T-5 to T-4: 3.69% increase

Flash T-5 to T-4: 3.74% increase 

[El Gato]

So it’s looking like 3-4M in previews with a range of 18-32M opening weekend (low to high end). Unless word of mouth is stellar and walk ups are out of this world, the DCEU is looking at its 7th flop in a row? Well the DCEU sure is making history! Lol

 

on a side note, how are international sales? Maybe Latin America can save it? 

[ringedmortality]

12 minutes ago, El Gato said:

Maybe Latin America can save it? 

Not that I know the presales there but Chicano culture doesn’t really translate to Latin America 

[El Gato]

1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:

Not that I know the presales there but Chicano culture doesn’t really translate to Latin America 

I was moreso thinking Brazil because of Bruna and Mexico because of the Mexican actors they cast. Plus Cobra Kai was pretty big in Latin America. 
 

On side note I’m wondering if BB will manage a 2x multiplier since both Flash and Shazam 2 failed to do so 

[Ezen Baklattan]

I don't think Universal usually does early access but it does feel like Strays is the exact kind of movie that would have benefitted from an early screening to try and get it in front of a full house and hopefully generate good WOM. But I checked my goto theaters in Pittsburgh and, no pun intended, WOOF.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 8/12/2023 at 9:09 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 23776/471914 415249.16 2266 shows

Friday - 14845/628812 252596.57 2939 shows 

 

 

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 26078/472478 453336.90 2270 shows

Friday - 16684/628977 283024.54 2945 shows

 

Looking at ~3.5-4m previews and 25-30m OW depending on how the final walkups go.  

[HummingLemon]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 26078/472478 453336.90 2270 shows

Friday - 16684/628977 283024.54 2945 shows

 

Looking at ~3.5-4m previews and 25-30m OW depending on how the final walkups go.  

Being generous on both fronts (3x legs, 33/67 split) would give this a $227M to $273M worldwide total. So STILL a flop

Edited August 14, 2023 by HummingLemon
remove part of comment

[HummingLemon]

3 hours ago, El Gato said:

I was moreso thinking Brazil because of Bruna and Mexico because of the Mexican actors they cast. Plus Cobra Kai was pretty big in Latin America. 
 

On side note I’m wondering if BB will manage a 2x multiplier since both Flash and Shazam 2 failed to do so 

Something would have to go really wrong for this to not do at least 2x

[JustLurking]

4 hours ago, El Gato said:

I was moreso thinking Brazil because of Bruna and Mexico because of the Mexican actors they cast. Plus Cobra Kai was pretty big in Latin America. 
 

On side note I’m wondering if BB will manage a 2x multiplier since both Flash and Shazam 2 failed to do so 

the few comps posted for brazil are meh. waluigi's last update had it below 30% of GOTG3. didn't see anything for mexico but I imagine it's not much different.

 

I imagine this will turbo tank in europe/asia as well if it can't even pull interest in LATAM. so...yeah. my theaters in italy certainly seem to suggest interest in the film is next to non-existent here.

Edited August 14, 2023 by JustLurking

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Back on the Strip T-4: 21.71% Awareness

The Equalizer 3 T-18: 52.2% Awareness

Saw X T-46: 37.68% Awareness

Godzilla Minus One T-109: 14.77% Awareness

Anyone But You T-123: 13.21% Awareness

 

Blue Beetle T-4: 40.38% Awareness

Final Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M, 11% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

 

Strays T-4: 44.92% Awareness

Final Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Gran Turismo T-11: 38.94% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

 

The Hill T-11: 22.57% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-60: 10.45% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M