The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/15/2023 at 4:45 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	98	58	359	16241	2.21

 

Quite a few expansions, with many theaters giving it an extra room (usually meaning 3 more shows). 19.3% daily growth rate at T-2 is very similar to other blockbusters I've tracked- 18.5% for Indiana Jones, 19.8% for Barbie; But it needs to be doing better than those since its starting point is much lower. Hoping for a better jump tomorrow with this sizable expansion.

 

Strays (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	53	2	52	5051	1.03
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	15	62	1499	4.14
TOTALS:	67	17	114	6550	1.74

 

That is not a typo, it sold a grand total of 2 tickets for Thursday... big bruh moment.

 

Comps:

0.67x Joy Ride w/ EA: $733k

0.46x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	113	102	461	17597	2.62

 

Comp:

1.11x Haunted Mansion- $3.44 Million (yeah yeah I know, bad comp, but it's the best I got)

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	28.41
3-Day:	95.34

 

Growth Rates for other movies I tracked (1-day, 3-day):

 

Haunted Mansion- 47%, 115%

Barbie- 25%, 94%

Indiana Jones- 15%, 65%

Mission Impossible- 28%, 69%

 

Ramping up better than the large blockbusters but I was expecting better growth rates since the starting point is lower. 

 

Strays (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	54	32	84	5329	1.58
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	45	107	1499	7.14
TOTALS:	68	77	191	6828	2.8

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	61.54
3-Day:	127.03

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses, ALL growth rates are just for Thursday, no EA included):

 

0.69x Joy Ride w/ EA: $756k (38%, 130%)

0.65x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.39 Million (15%, 110%)

 

Decent T-1 update but NHF blew up on its last day as we know, and Joy Ride didn't, so it's all about that. Still looking at around $1 Million right now, this late burst gives me some hope for better.

 

I will be able to give a T-1 hour update for this, but I'm pretty sure I won't be able to do it for Blue Beetle. Damn these early preview times!

Edited August 16, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[VanillaSkies]

https://x.com/homeofdcu/status/1691843173012623548?s=46&t=MLaj-yLE8F9oL8gkcbAe7w
 

could account for a bump in walk-ups this weekend…

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/15/2023 at 7:00 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
188	1224	33495	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

132

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.304x) of The Flash

~$2.94M THUR Previews 

 

(0.963x) of TMNT

~$3.71M THUR Previews

 

(0.491x) of Fast X

~$3.68M THUR Previews

 

(0.430x) of RoTB 

~$3.79M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.53M previews 

 

Finally a solid day. Looks like ~$3.5M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1520	33987	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

296

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.327x) of The Flash

~$3.17M THUR Previews 

 

(0.512x) of Fast X

~$3.84M THUR Previews

 

(0.404x) of RoTB 

~$3.55M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.52M previews 

 

Good day, nice review bump. Sticking with $3.5M previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/15/2023 at 7:06 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	366	25986	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

42

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.879x) of Asteroid City

~$968k THUR Previews

 

(1.119x) of Boogeyman

~$1.23M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.09M

 

I would guess $800k-$1M as of rn

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	414	25986	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.992x) of Asteroid City

~$1.01M THUR Previews

 

(1.027x) of Boogeyman

~$1.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.07M

 

As of right now, I'll go with $900k-$1.1M previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/15/2023 at 7:15 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	135	29254	0.46%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.135x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$947k THUR Previews

 

(0.104x) of Oppenheimer

~$1.09M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.02M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	170	29254	0.58%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

35

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.168x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.18M THUR Previews

 

(0.126x) of Oppenheimer

~$1.32M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.25M

[HummingLemon]

@TheFlatLannister

 

So $3.5M previews would mean a $21.5-24M weekend, right? Or do you think it'll overperform with the internal multiplier (>7x)?

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local Regal (7pm)

 

Beetle has sold one less ticket than Shazam 2 ($3.4m) on a total of 3 instead of 6 showings.  I'd say the theater learned it's lesson but it gave 3 (larger) showings to Strays which has sold 3 tickets.

 

Blue Beetle: 43/771

Strays 3/903

 

Schools are starting to go back but still the multi should be considerably lower than S2's 8.856. 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@TheFlatLannister

 

So $3.5M previews would mean a $21.5-24M weekend, right? Or do you think it'll overperform with the internal multiplier (>7x)?

Reviews seem good enough. I would bet on an IM over 7x, but I don't have weekend data. 

[vafrow]

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-8

 

I wasn't going to do Gran Turismo after I did an initial count before they postponed it, but, figured I'd do one.

 

At T-8, it's at exactly 100 tickets sold across 50 theatres and 177 showtimes.

 

Off it's premium screen allocation, I think it's going to great business on National Cinema Day.

 

I have a direct comp now with Blue Beetle, which was at 221 on the same day, leaving GT at 45% at same point in time. With comps on that most recently pointing to $3.1M, that gives it $1.4M

 

My local theatre has sold zero tickets, so hard to do any local comps. But, If I adjust my local comps to same tickets sold per showtime, it brings it to

 

0.141x Fast X for $1.1M

0.085x T:ROTB for $0.7M

 

Not great numbers, but, I haven't done any analysis on the EA shows, and that will suck up a lot of early demand.

[HummingLemon]

Yeah a 6-7x IM seems a little low for this one. Since reviews are ""positive"" I think it'll do 7.5x. Probably a $26-28M opening weekend

Edited August 17, 2023 by HummingLemon

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local Regal (7pm)

 

Beetle has sold one less ticket than Shazam 2 ($3.4m) on a total of 3 instead of 6 showings.  I'd say the theater learned it's lesson but it gave 3 (larger) showings to Strays which has sold 3 tickets.

 

Blue Beetle: 43/771

Strays 3/903

 

Schools are starting to go back but still the multi should be considerably lower than S2's 8.856. 

 

 

I still remember on the day of release you thought 2m previews was possible for Shazam 2. You data sample is too tiny to be accurate for these movies. It works only when movies are presales heavy. 

[ZeeSoh]

36 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@TheFlatLannister

 

So $3.5M previews would mean a $21.5-24M weekend, right? Or do you think it'll overperform with the internal multiplier (>7x)?

That would be a relatively low multi imo. Except for The Flash recent DC movies have had multi's of high 7 to high 8 (The Batman at 7.61, Black Adam at 8.81 and Shazam 2 at 8.85). So with a combination of good reviews so far, a small opening and it being a new character so no significant fan rush like for an established character like Flash, I would expect this to have a mid to high 7 multi if not 8 like BA and S2. But with some schools still out on vacation it could lower the multi a bit but I still don't see it dipping below 7

[divesyn]

42 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	414	25986	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.992x) of Asteroid City

~$1.01M THUR Previews

 

(1.027x) of Boogeyman

~$1.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.07M

 

As of right now, I'll go with $900k-$1.1M previews 

This doesnt includes EA right? I really can’t see it getting close to 10m

This movie is just dead dead, not seeing anything on internet about it

[HummingLemon]

12 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

That would be a relatively low multi imo. Except for The Flash recent DC movies have had multi's of high 7 to high 8 (The Batman at 7.61, Black Adam at 8.81 and Shazam 2 at 8.85). So with a combination of good reviews so far, a small opening and it being a new character so no significant fan rush like for an established character like Flash, I would expect this to have a mid to high 7 multi if not 8 like BA and S2. But with some schools still out on vacation it could lower the multi a bit but I still don't see it dipping below 7

So assuming "positive" audience reception, let's just go with 7.75x. 3.5 * 7.75 = $27.13M

[keysersoze123]

Equalizer 3 MTC1 previews - 4828/414432 83323.58 2037 shows

 

Even worse than Blue Beetle. But this is a Denzel action flick and so I am expecting it to sell close to release than 15 days to go. 

[TheFlatLannister]

31 minutes ago, divesyn said:

This doesnt includes EA right? I really can’t see it getting close to 10m

This movie is just dead dead, not seeing anything on internet about it

I had no idea there was EA for this until you said that. I have no data on that since showings were today at 7pm

[TheFlatLannister]

When a tracker doesn't even know your film has early access, you know its DOA

 

 

[filmlover]

With Dumb Money changing course on its release plans, this is what September and October look like now:

 

9/1: Equalizer 3

9/8: Nun 2, Greek Wedding 3

9/15: Haunting in Venice

9/22: Expendables 4

9/29: Saw X, Paw Patrol 2, The Creator

10/6: Dumb Money

10/13: Exorcist, Ordinary Angels

10/20: Killers of the Flower Moon

10/27: Five Nights at Freddy's

 

Since I get the sense Expendables is about to lose its date soon (the lack of further promo materials and concrete info on Lionsgate's website other than "Coming Soon" seems to indicate such), one of either Paw Patrol or Saw (unless they're that worried about being the third horror movie in as many weeks following The Nun and horror-adjacent Haunting in Venice) really should move up to 9/22 since I doubt a week will make a difference for either.

[keysersoze123]

Some of the horror movies could open well but that is really a weak Sep/Oct for sure. I am feeling good about Dune 2 opening big if it opens as scheduled. Flower Moon with Leo cannot be underestimated but subject matter and length makes me think OW wont be that huge. But we have to see close to release how things go. Hopefully the strikes are done and Leo is able to market the movie. 

Edited August 17, 2023 by keysersoze123

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Some of the horror movies could open well but that is really a weak Sep/Oct for sure. I am feeling good about Dune 2 opening big if it opens as scheduled. Flower Moon wit Leo cannot be underestimated but subject matter and length makes me think OW wont be that huge. But we have to see close to release how things go. Hopefully the strikes are done and Leo is able to market the movie. 

I do think Flower Moon has potential but it remains to be seen if Paramount will actually push it or if it's essentially going to be treated as a glorified qualifying run for its streaming release on Apple given the combo of subject matter + runtime (it's only going to fit in 3 shows a day on each screen it plays on) + potentially nonexistent promo tour. The fact it's not featured on the studio's website at all (on the other hand, fellow Apple-going-theatrical title Napoleon is featured on Sony's website so it seems like they will push people into being convinced to see it on the big screen) feels like a bit of a red flag in that regard.

 

Paramount Pictures

Edited August 17, 2023 by filmlover