The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[cowboylikeme]

14 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

Everything in total? About $55-60M.

WOW Thank you. This is huge right? 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, cowboylikeme said:

WOW Thank you. This is huge right? 

Definitely. At this point we’re just trying to figure out presale frontloading and capacity restrictions. We still have over a month until it’ll really start to matter. 

[Legion Again]

8 hours ago, Willowra said:

If Ant-Man 3 had received better, how much do you think it would have grossed at the box office? I don't think it would have crossed $300m even with the good reception.

With good reception it was heading for like 140->350 easy

[el sid]

The Nun II counted today for Thursday.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 143 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 127 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 17 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 25 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 90 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 185 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 591.

Up 83% since last Friday. That's not a bad jump but somehow I expected a tiny bit more.
Comps (all three films counted on the same day, Tuesday of the release week for Thursday): M3gan (2.75M from previews) had 341 sold tickets,
The Meg 2 (3.2M) had 338
and HE (5.4M) had 1.025 sold tickets.
Scream VI (5.7M) had 1.295 sold tickets on Monday and 1.693 sold tickets on Wednesday.
And The Boogeyman (1.1M) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 173 sold tickets.
 

Idk. Three comps look good and two others don't (Scream VI and HE). I wait till I see the jumps in the next two days before I dare to offer new predictions.

[Willowra]

19 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

With good reception it was heading for like 140->350 easy

I don't think good reviews can bump opening weekend gross of a MCU movie by 25%. The OW of a MCU movie depends on hype. In the case of Ant-Man 3, hype was limited to fandom, so it had no chance of opening with $140m

[vale9001]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

‘Marvels’, ‘Hunger Games’ Prequel Most Want To See: Fandango Fall Poll – Deadline

Very good for Scorsese movie being so high. 

While disappointing for the exorcist. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by vale9001

[misterpepp]

Somewhat surprisingly, Exorcist: Believer just went on sale.

 

Also, as I stated a few posts back, Haunting in Venice went on sale today.

[bakedpotato]

4 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

Definitely. At this point we’re just trying to figure out presale frontloading and capacity restrictions. We still have over a month until it’ll really start to matter. 

Wonder how much of those presales are for OW

[XXR vs XXR]

17 minutes ago, bakedpotato said:

Wonder how much of those presales are for OW

Around 80% I believe. @keysersoze123 has more insight into the spread.

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/4/2023 at 3:07 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2017

2629

76.72%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1929

2492

77.41%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9372	231	18466	50.75%	13	124

 

0.909	Barbie T-0	20.27M
0.610	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	21.96M
0.405	NWH T-0	20.23M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2020

2629

76.84%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1943

2492

77.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9508	136	18466	51.49%	13	124

 

0.922	Barbie T-0	20.56M
0.619	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	22.28M
0.411	NWH T-0	20.53M

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/4/2023 at 3:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-39 Friday

90 Showings

7426

+660

14797

ATP:

22.64

0.229	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	8.26M
0.191	NWH Thurs T-0	9.57M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	12.43M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	14.40M

 

T-40 Saturday

146 Showings

8253

+1014

23526

ATP:

22.22

0.222	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	12.14M
0.193	NWH Fri T-0	13.92M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	18.42M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	21.12M

 

T-41 Sunday

134 Showings

5941

+789

21581

ATP:

22.09

0.135	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	7.81M
0.118	NWH Sat T-0	8.73M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	12.15M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	13.60M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-38 Friday

91 Showings

7727

+301

14904

ATP:

22.62

0.239	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	8.59M
0.199	NWH Thurs T-0	9.95M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	12.92M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	14.97M

 

T-39 Saturday

148 Showings

8842

+589

23732

ATP:

22.17

0.238	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	13.01M
0.207	NWH Fri T-0	14.91M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-0	19.68M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-0	22.57M

 

T-40 Sunday

136 Showings

6386

+445

21787

ATP:

22.00

0.145	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	8.39M
0.127	NWH Sat T-0	9.39M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-0	13.01M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-0	14.56M

 

One of the theaters isn't working at Emagine, so just gonna skip it for today

[Hilts]

On 9/4/2023 at 8:20 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-43	16	93	0	6,148	6,148	15,916	38.63%
T-42	19	124	0	2,134	8,282	23,809	34.79%
T-41	19	133	0	869	9,151	25,027	36.56%
T-40	19	140	0	441	9,592	25,770	37.22%
T-39	19	140	0	302	9,894	25,770	38.39%
T-0 Comps
Barbie					1.001x	=	$21.11m

 

Still chugging along. Sold more than I expected considering previous daily drops but no extra shows added so tomorrow will be a bigger test.

 

This has now outsold Barbie's final total here (ex EA) which was my highest track. We are into the unknown.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-42	19	124	0	2,134	8,282	23,809	34.79%
T-41	19	133	0	869	9,151	25,027	36.56%
T-40	19	140	0	441	9,592	25,770	37.22%
T-39	19	140	0	302	9,894	25,770	38.39%
T-38	19	143	0	216	10,110	26,066	38.79%
T-0 Comp
Barbie					1.023x	=	$21.58m

 

Broken the 10k barrier. Above not adjusted for ATP. Will send through Nun and Wedding update later.

[misterpepp]

On 9/3/2023 at 2:35 AM, datpepper said:

Apologies if this is already known, but there will be early access shows for The Creator on Sep 27. I'm keeping an eye out for when they go on sale, should be before general tix if Venice is anything to go by.

 

No general tix sale date yet, but the early access shows go on sale on Sep 7.

[DisposedData]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

I don't think good reviews can bump opening weekend gross of a MCU movie by 25%. The OW of a MCU movie depends on hype. In the case of Ant-Man 3, hype was limited to fandom, so it had no chance of opening with $140m

It literally had previews that should have gotten it to 140m OW. It collapsed during opening week because of poor reception 

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-39

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	10444	36394	28.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

567

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

16

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.778x) of Barbie ~$16.42M FRIDAY for TET

(0.966x) of GOTG3~$16.90M FRIDAY for TET

(0.935x) of ATSV~$16.22M FRIDAY for TET

(1.559x) of TLM~$16.06M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.4M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $21.32M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-38

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
202	10496	36394	28.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

16

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.782x) of Barbie ~$16.50M FRIDAY for TET

(0.971x) of GOTG3~$16.99M FRIDAY for TET

(0.939x) of ATSV~$16.30M FRIDAY for TET

(1.567x) of TLM~$16.14M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.48M

Adjusted 30% up for ATP $21.42M

 

Defintely cooled off, but that's to be expected with how hot presales started. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	156	25529	0.61%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-30

 

(0.167x) of Oppenheimer ~$1.76M THUR Previews

 

I have no horror comps this far out so i'll just use oppy for now

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
167	614	29964	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

67

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.269x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$6.34M THUR Previews

 

(2.856x) of Talk to me ~$3.56M THUR Previews

 

(2.013x) of Boogeyman ~$2.21M THUR Previews

 

(1.663x) of Meg 2 ~$5.32M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $4.36M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
175	667	31328	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

53

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.166x) of Insidious: The Red Door ~$5.83M THUR Previews

 

(2.690x) of Talk to me ~$3.35M THUR Previews

 

(2.040x) of Boogeyman ~$2.24M THUR Previews

 

(1.290x) of Meg 2 ~$4.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.89M

 

Going down against comps

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
131	228	23286	0.98%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.704x) of Strays ~$581k THUR Previews

 

(1.541x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.12M THUR Previews

 

(0.597x) of Asteroid City ~$657k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $786k

 

Staying consistently around $700K

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
133	243	23682	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.664x) of Strays ~$548k THUR Previews

 

(1.389x) of Ruby Gilman ~$1.0M THUR Previews

 

(0.584x) of Asteroid City ~$643k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $730k

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/4/2023 at 4:41 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	32	0	80	3501	2.29

 

Nope, no typo. This sold two singular tickets in two theaters, but two were refunded in another ticket, for a grand total of zero. 

 

Comps:

0.82x Strays (Total): $907k

0.64x Joy Ride (Total): $704k

0.58x No Hard Feelings (Just Thursday): $1.25 Million 

 

I learned my lesson about making definitive statement about releases that sell such little tickets that comps can quickly change... not so sure about $1 million anymore. Tracking closer to what katniss and FlatLanister show.

 

The Nun II (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	64	26	141	11328	1.24

 

Comps:

0.73x Insidious Red Door: $3.66 Million

1.04x Talk To Me (Total): $1.29 Million

2.04x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.53 Million

 

Hoping for better jumps

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	41	43	123	4413	2.79

 

Comps:

1.08x Strays (Total): $1.19 Million

0.72x Joy Ride (Total): $791k

0.82x No Hard Feelings (Thursday): $1.76 Million 

 

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. Jk but this is behaving rather irregularly, but I took these numbers later than usual, which makes more of a difference with fewer tickets. Tomorrow's pull and comping 3-day growth rates will shed more light on this.

 

The Nun II (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	91	72	213	14663	1.45

 

Comps:

0.7x Insidious Red Door: $3.52 Million

1.16x Talk To Me (Total): $1.45 Million

2.07x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.55 Million

2.48x Barbarian: $2.11 Million

2.32x Beast: $ 2.15 Million

 

This better hope for a late pull a la Insidious because right now I'm seeing 2.5-3 million for its previews

[DAJK]

Didn't like the first Nun at all, but I was kinda hoping Nun 2 could be a breakout (40M or so). Would love to see the Conjuring movies come back in force, but maybe they really are a product of the 2010s (or of Wan himself, and since he's no longer involved...).