The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

Saturday sales 

ORLANDO-GAINSVILLE-DAYTONA 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
370	10742	70636	15.2%

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

Looks like the seats were actually "blocked" so Saturday sales are actually behind Friday sales. 

 

0.967x behind Friday sales.

 

Sunday sales 

ORLANDO-GAINSVILLE-DAYTONA 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
372	5888	72601	8.1%

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

192 seats sold over the past week

 

0.548x behind Saturday sales.

0.530x behind Friday sales. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/23/2023 at 6:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	378	25865	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

32

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.773x) of Nun II ~$2.40M THUR Previews

(0.761x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.89M THUR Previews

(1.835x) of Boogeyman ~$2.02M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.44M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	394	25865	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.720x) of Nun II ~$2.23M THUR Previews

(0.726x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.76M THUR Previews

(1.438x) of Boogeyman ~$1.58M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.19M previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/23/2023 at 6:35 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	501	25911	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.349x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.08M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	516	25911	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.350x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.09M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/23/2023 at 6:38 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	500	28131	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.486x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.60M THUR Previews

(0.252x) of RoTB ~$2.21M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.91M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	523	28131	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.490x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.62M THUR Previews

(0.239x) of RoTB ~$2.10M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.86M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/23/2023 at 6:49 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11103	43473	25.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.827x) of Barbie ~$17.45M FRIDAY for TET

(0.994x) of ATSV~$17.24M FRIDAY for TET

(1.658x) of TLM~$17.07M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.21M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.19M

 

T-20 comps

(2.327x) of GOTG3~$40.72M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $57.01M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11144	43473	25.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.830x) of Barbie ~$17.51M FRIDAY for TET

(0.997x) of ATSV~$17.30M FRIDAY for TET

(1.664x) of TLM~$17.14M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.21M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.09M

 

T-19 comps

(2.330x) of GOTG3~$40.78M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $57.07M

 

First day in a while that it hasn't slipped against GOTG comp

[Relevation]

Tickets are now up for Killers of the Flower Moon, 9PM EST drop

[HummingLemon]

@Relevation

 

By the way, what OW are you expecting for Taylor Swift now?

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/21/2023 at 6:31 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Saw X (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	29	61	61	4357	1.4

 

Comps:

1.2x The Nun II: $3.7 Million

0.78x Insidious Red Door: $3.91 Million

 

Pretty good start, concerning number of shows though.

 

The Creator (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	32	23	177	5543	3.19
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	19	33	586	5.63
TOTALS:	34	42	210	6129	3.43

 

Comps:

Haunted Mansion: Missed

0.3x TMNT (w/ all EA): $1.66 Million

0.82x TMNT (just Previews day, no EA): $3.15 Million

 

Sadly, no more TMNT comp after today.  Really unsure of what to use as comps besides Haunted Mansion.

 

The Exorcist: Believer (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	44	5	96	8629	1.11

 

Comp:

0.6x Haunted Mansion: $1.86 Million

 

Also, @katnisscinnaplex not sure where ya been, sending good vibes your way! Hope all is well.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Saw X (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	33	73	134	5387	2.49

 

Comps:

1.17x The Nun II: $3.6 Million

0.76x Insidious Red Door: $3.82 Million

1.14x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.42 Million 

2.23x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.675 Million

 

Still pretty nice, Nun and Insidious comps are the most important imo

 

The Creator (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	34	65	242	6375	3.8
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	9	42	586	7.17
TOTALS:	36	74	284	6961	4.08

 

Comps:

0.92x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $2.85 Million

0.98x Blue Beetle (comped with just Thursday): $3.22 Million

1.99x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $2.38 Million

 

These are baaaaad comps, don't put too much trust in them. Venice might be the best one, since the other two had pretty good release week growth rates and I think The Creator will behave more similarly to Venice, but we shall see.

 

The Exorcist: Believer (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	44	12	108	8629	1.25

 

Comp:

0.63x Haunted Mansion: $1.96 Million

 

Actual horror comps coming next update

[misterpepp]

On 9/19/2023 at 11:04 PM, datpepper said:

I'm not sure about Freddy, that one goes on sale in the morning.

 

Different source says this is now going on sale in the evening of Oct 1, at around 9pm EST. Another "we shall see" situation.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

Different source says this is now going on sale in the evening of Oct 1, at around 9pm EST. Another "we shall see" situation.

 

Sunday Night Football ad?

 

Would FNAF actually warr...

 

*stops*

 

NBC... Peacock simulcast for SNF.

 

OHHHHHHHHH.  Nearly clever there, potentially.

[HummingLemon]

FNAF $65m OW. Source? My arbitrary guess

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon said:

FNAF $65m OW. Source? My arbitrary guess

 

 

 

(IYKYK)

((long time thread readers should def know, ftr))

[eman92]

23 hours ago, eman92 said:

Saw X T-5 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

Saw X fell behind the Thursday preview numbers for The Nun II, which I was expecting since The Nun II had a huge amount of sales on T-5 for Thursday. Saw X slightly closed the gap on Friday and did well on Saturday sales. Sunday the Nun II and Saw X both sold 3 additional tickets. Overall Saw X fell behind now by 6 tickets for the weekend. I'm hoping AMC will add additional showtimes tomorrow or Monday which should then help draw some uptick in presales to Saw X.

 

 

T-5	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	55	49
Friday	43	36
Saturday	21	31
Sunday	10	7
Total	129	123

 

COMPS

0.89x of The Nun II for $2.76M Thursday Preview

0.95x of The Nun II for $31.09M Weekend incl Preview

 

Still solid signs that Saw X is hanging in there with The Nun II, but it has been doing slightly less than The Nun II the past few days. 

 

 

Saw X T-4 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Saw X made up some solid ground on The Nun II today. Ended up selling 7 more tickets more than The Nun II on T-4 and so now Saw X has 1 more ticket sale more than The Nun II for the whole weekend in total. 

 

T-4	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	61	55
Friday	52	46
Saturday	30	40
Sunday	10	13
Total	153	154

 

It is still 6 tickets behind on Thursday, I'm hoping that either tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest my AMC will release more showtimes for Sept 29th weekend which should hopefully help. 

 

0.90x of The Nun II for $2.80M Thursday Preview

1.01x of The Nun II for $32.82M Weekend incl Preview

 

 

[Issac Newton]

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Dumb Money T-4: 26.79% Awareness

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-18: 42.6%

What Happens Later T-39: 15.34%

Migration T-88: 22.27%

The Color Money T-91: 32.41%

Mean Girls: The Musical T-109: 20.23%

 

The Creator T-4: 30.48% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 43% chance of 10M

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-4: 38.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Saw X T-4: 44.12% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

 

The Exorcist: Believer T-11: 44.1% Awareness

Final Awareness: 84% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 83% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M

[Porthos]

On 9/24/2023 at 12:52 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	10991	18739	7748	41.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

28

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	83.62		132	9266		0/329	31642/40908	22.65%		21117	36.69%		30.10m	43.65m
BP2	124.73		114	6212		1/294	30810/37022	16.78%		16800	46.12%		34.92m	50.64m
AM3	187.56		63	4131		0/235	28425/32556	12.69%		10475	73.97%		32.82m	47.59m
GOTG3	243.42		76	3183		0/206	26483/29666	10.73%		10750	72.07%		42.60m	61.77m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-20 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	239.51		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	65.90%
JWD	391.12		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	70.65%
Ava 2	364.10		98	2128		0/142	19210/21338	9.97%		8986	86.22%
AtSV	496.99		99	1559		0/123	18343/19902	7.83%		9744	79.52%
Barbie	576.92		80	1343		0/96	11284/12627	10.64%		12077	64.16%
Oppy	882.46		18	878		0/53	7372/8250	10.64%		4621	167.67%
Barben	348.85		98	2221		0/149	18656/20877	10.64%		16698	46.40%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2245/6150  [36.50% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	10990	18797	7807	41.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	82.54		193	9459		0/329	31449/40908	23.12%		21117	36.97%		29.71m	43.08m
BP2	123.65		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	46.47%		34.62m	50.20m
AM3	187.13		41	4172		0/235	28384/32556	12.81%		10475	74.53%		32.75m	47.48m
GOTG3	238.75		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		10750	72.62%		41.78m	60.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-19 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	230.16		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	66.40%
JWD	377.70		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	71.19%
Ava 2	343.92		142	2270		0/142	19068/21338	10.64%		8986	86.88%
AtSV	487.63		42	1601		0/123	18301/19902	8.04%		9744	80.12%
Barbie	547.86		82	1425		0/96	11202/12627	11.29%		12077	64.64%
Oppy	861.70		28	906		0/53	7344/8250	10.98%		4621	168.95%
Barben	334.92		110	2331		0/149	18546/20877	11.17%		16698	46.75%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2261/6150  [36.76% sold]

 

===

 

The NFL.... It's POWAH!

Edited September 25, 2023 by Porthos

[vale9001]

that quorum awareness for taylor swift concert seems to high for the kinda of promotion it got until now.. What kinda of question they make? I wouldn't be surprised some are just saying "i heard about it" cause they heard about the tour in general.

[Cooper Legion]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

(IYKYK)

((long time thread readers should def know, ftr))

Don't worry Porthos, I'll save you:

 

FNAF $39M OW. Source? My guess

[vafrow]

On 9/24/2023 at 8:09 AM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-20 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,444

New Sales: 54

Growth from yesterday 0.3%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  94

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,658

Percentage of seats sold: 66.7%

Tickets per showtime: 174.9

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Nothing too eventful happening. Growth remains low, but steady. 

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-19 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,501*

New Sales: 57

Growth from yesterday 0.3%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  94

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,658

Percentage of seats sold: 66.9%

Tickets per showtime: 175.5

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

One location has a glitch, so I can't pull ths number. I had to play with the numbers tp land an estimate that's potentially undercounting. But, nothing surprising with numbers at this point.

 

I'll be travelling for work this week, so won't be able to pull numbers for a day or so.

 

Edit: holdout theatre back online. Numbers updated.

 

I also managed to pull data on other tracks this morning, but will only post them later today if I get the chance.

Edited September 25, 2023 by vafrow

[vale9001]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	10990	18797	7807	41.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	82.54		193	9459		0/329	31449/40908	23.12%		21117	36.97%		29.71m	43.08m
BP2	123.65		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	46.47%		34.62m	50.20m
AM3	187.13		41	4172		0/235	28384/32556	12.81%		10475	74.53%		32.75m	47.48m
GOTG3	238.75		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		10750	72.62%		41.78m	60.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-19 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	230.16		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	66.40%
JWD	377.70		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	71.19%
Ava 2	343.92		142	2270		0/142	19068/21338	10.64%		8986	86.88%
AtSV	487.63		42	1601		0/123	18301/19902	8.04%		9744	80.12%
Barbie	547.86		82	1425		0/96	11202/12627	11.29%		12077	64.64%
Oppy	861.70		28	906		0/53	7344/8250	10.98%		4621	168.95%
Barben	334.92		110	2331		0/149	18546/20877	11.17%		16698	46.75%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2261/6150  [36.76% sold]

 

===

 

The NFL.... It's POWAH!

 

 

good numbers. This is far away to be as frontloaded as someone was thinking some days ago.