The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Hilts]

20 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	3	3	0	2	17	1,224	1.39%
T-8	3	3	0	5	22	1,224	1.80%
T-7	3	3	0	2	24	1,224	1.96%
T-6	3	3	0	3	27	1,224	2.21%
T-5	3	3	0	4	31	1,224	2.53%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-10	18	42	0	3	92	8,758	1.05%
T-9	19	43	0	9	101	8,760	1.15%
T-8	19	43	0	6	107	8,760	1.22%
T-7	20	45	0	8	115	9,613	1.20%
T-6	20	45	0	7	122	9,394	1.30%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.485x	=	$1.63m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.157x	=	$1.38m
Haunted Mansion					0.507x	=	$1.57m
Strays					1.485x	=	$1.63m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					2.732x	=	$1.50m

 

Comp average: $1.54m

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	3	3	0	5	22	1,224	1.80%
T-7	3	3	0	2	24	1,224	1.96%
T-6	3	3	0	3	27	1,224	2.21%
T-5	3	3	0	4	31	1,224	2.53%
T-4	3	3	0	8	39	1,224	3.19%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	19	43	0	9	101	8,760	1.15%
T-8	19	43	0	6	107	8,760	1.22%
T-7	20	45	0	8	115	9,613	1.20%
T-6	20	45	0	7	122	9,394	1.30%
T-5	20	45	0	7	129	9,394	1.37%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.585x	=	$1.74m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.148x	=	$1.30m
Haunted Mansion					0.519x	=	$1.61m
Strays					1.474x	=	$1.62m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					2.800x	=	$1.54m

 

Comp average: $1.56m

[Hilts]

20 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-17	20	74	0	8	60	15,606	0.38%
T-16	20	74	0	2	62	15,606	0.40%
T-15	20	74	0	2	64	15,606	0.41%
T-14	20	74	0	7	71	15,606	0.45%
T-13	20	74	0	11	82	15,606	0.53%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.547x	=	$1.69m
Barbie					0.069x	=	$1.45m
Asteroid City					1.093x	=	$1.20m
Strays					1.708x	=	$1.88m

 

Comp average: $1.56m

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-16	20	74	0	2	62	15,606	0.40%
T-15	20	74	0	2	64	15,606	0.41%
T-14	20	74	0	7	71	15,606	0.45%
T-13	20	74	0	11	82	15,606	0.53%
T-12	20	74	0	3	85	15,606	0.54%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.563x	=	$1.75m
Barbie					0.067x	=	$1.41m
Asteroid City					1.037x	=	$1.14m
Strays					1.700x	=	$1.87m

 

Comp average: $1.54m

[Hilts]

20 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-25	20	159	0	30	11,091	28,656	38.70%
T-24	20	161	0	25	11,116	28,840	38.54%
T-23	20	163	0	59	11,175	28,984	38.56%
T-22	20	163	0	36	11,211	28,984	38.68%
T-21	20	163	0	43	11,254	28,984	38.83%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.138x	=	$24.02m
Oppenheimer					2.311x	=	$24.27m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.731x	=	$26.87m
T-21 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					22.735x	=	$25.01m

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-24	20	161	0	25	11,116	28,840	38.54%
T-23	20	163	0	59	11,175	28,984	38.56%
T-22	20	163	0	36	11,211	28,984	38.68%
T-21	20	163	0	43	11,254	28,984	38.83%
T-20	20	163	0	47	11,301	28,984	38.99%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.143x	=	$24.12m
Oppenheimer					2.321x	=	$24.37m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.747x	=	$26.98m
T-20 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					22.557x	=	$24.81m

[eman92]

14 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.816x	=	$4.08m
Talk To Me					2.217x	=	$2.76m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.829x	=	$2.65m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.833x	=	$2.12m
The Nun II					1.010x	=	$3.13m
Expend4bles					2.615x	=	$1.96m

 

Comp average: $2.79m

That's very solid for Saw X! I'm surprised to see it overtaking The Nun II at this point. I'm not surprised with Insidious/Talk To Me and The Meg 2 its losing ground since your last update, since those were summer releases and I'd expect better Thursday numbers for those releases. 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by eman92

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	346	25865	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

75

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.814x) of Nun II ~$2.52M THUR Previews

(0.751x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.85M THUR Previews

(2.247x) of Boogeyman ~$2.47M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.61M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

SAW X

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
135	378	25865	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

32

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.773x) of Nun II ~$2.40M THUR Previews

(0.761x) of Equalizer 3 ~$2.89M THUR Previews

(1.835x) of Boogeyman ~$2.02M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.44M previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	461	25911	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.330x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.02M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	501	25911	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.349x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.08M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	467	28131	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.477x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.57M THUR Previews

(0.256x) of RoTB ~$2.26M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.92M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	500	28131	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.486x) of Blue Beetle ~$1.60M THUR Previews

(0.252x) of RoTB ~$2.21M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $1.91M

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11074	43473	25.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.825x) of Barbie ~$17.40M FRIDAY for TET

(0.991x) of ATSV~$17.20M FRIDAY for TET

(1.653x) of TLM~$17.03M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.21M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.06M

 

T-21 comps

(2.360x) of GOTG3~$41.30M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $57.82M

 

Still slipping against Guardians comp

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	11103	43473	25.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-0

T-0 comps previews: 

(0.827x) of Barbie ~$17.45M FRIDAY for TET

(0.994x) of ATSV~$17.24M FRIDAY for TET

(1.658x) of TLM~$17.07M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $17.21M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $24.19M

 

T-20 comps

(2.327x) of GOTG3~$40.72M FRIDAY for TET

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $57.01M

[HummingLemon]

This place is gonna go crazy no matter what when pre-sales for The Marvels starts

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon said:

This place is gonna go crazy no matter what when pre-sales for The Marvels starts

defintely my most anticipated end of the year tracking 

[HummingLemon]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

defintely my most anticipated end of the year tracking 

That and Aquaman. I could imagine a scenario where it's tracking abysmally low or a situation where it's tracking just fine.

[eman92]

23 hours ago, eman92 said:

Saw X T-6 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

Things slowed down for Saw X compared to The Nun II on T-6 at my theater. The Nun II went from 61 tickets to 104, Saw X went from 82 to 101 so it has fallen slightly behind The Nun II at this point, but still tracking closely. This is the breakdown for T-6 by date for tickets sold:
 

 

 

T-6	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	42	44
Friday	42	28
Saturday	13	25
Sunday	7	4
Total	104	101

 

 

Saw X performing just slighlyyyyyy better than The Nun II for Thursday. I have a feeling T-5 The Nun II will be outperforming Saw X on Thursday. My AMC still has not added additional showtimes to Thursday yet and I think it is hurting Saw X at this point. Based on these metrics it's still doing well but basically tracking right on par with The Nun II.

 

COMPS

1.05x of The Nun II for $3.25M Thursday Preview

0.97x of The Nun II for $31.66M Weekend incl Preview

 

I'm hoping Saw X at this point can just stay on track with The Nun II. If it keeps falling behind I'm worried that the initial 2 days of presales were really just fans and that traffic has died down. Tomorrow will be interesting. I'm hoping that AMC adds more times for Sept 29th weekend tomorrow or at least sometime this weekend. It's very odd to me that basically the new releases for next weekend still don't have a lot of showings. Even The Creator doesn't have many showings listed at my AMC and same for Paw Patrol. I guess they're going to do a mass purge of old releases this week and they want to see which films are still going to perform well before giving their theaters away. 

 

 

 

Saw X T-5 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

Saw X fell behind the Thursday preview numbers for The Nun II, which I was expecting since The Nun II had a huge amount of sales on T-5 for Thursday. Saw X slightly closed the gap on Friday and did well on Saturday sales. Sunday the Nun II and Saw X both sold 3 additional tickets. Overall Saw X fell behind now by 6 tickets for the weekend. I'm hoping AMC will add additional showtimes tomorrow or Monday which should then help draw some uptick in presales to Saw X.

 

 

T-5	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	55	49
Friday	43	36
Saturday	21	31
Sunday	10	7
Total	129	123

 

COMPS

0.89x of The Nun II for $2.76M Thursday Preview

0.95x of The Nun II for $31.09M Weekend incl Preview

 

Still solid signs that Saw X is hanging in there with The Nun II, but it has been doing slightly less than The Nun II the past few days. 

 

[Porthos]

On 9/23/2023 at 12:30 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11019	18739	7720	41.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

33

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	84.52		187	9134		0/329	31774/40908	22.33%		21117	36.56%		30.43m	44.12m
BP2	126.60		150	6098		1/294	30924/37022	16.47%		16800	45.95%		35.45m	51.40m
AM3	189.77		104	4068		0/235	28488/32556	12.50%		10475	73.70%		33.21m	48.16m
GOTG3	248.47		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		10750	71.81%		43.48m	63.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-21 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	267.96		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	65.66%
JWD	410.64		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		10966	70.40%
Ava 2	380.30		169	2030		0/142	19308/21338	9.51%		8986	85.91%
AtSV	528.77		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	79.23%
Barbie	611.24		92	1263		0/96	11363/12626	10.00%		12077	63.92%
Oppy	897.67		24	860		0/53	7390/8250	10.42%		4621	167.06%
Barben	363.64		116	2123		0/149	18753/20876	10.17%		16698	46.23%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

 

Regal:     2240/6150  [36.42% sold]

 

====

 

At the suggestion of @Menor the Destroyer threw together another chart, this time totally uncomped, purely for daily pace and final percentage of sales comparisons.  This was the first full day of sales for The Batman, so it's not of great use at the mo for daily pace (duh), but might sorta kinda be soon enough, so might as well add it now.  If it doesn't ever look to be good, can easily remove it.

 

The Barbenheimer comp might never be good for daily pace, but maaaaaaaybe for final percentages, if theaters go wild with capacity.  Though since Barbie had a 3pm start and Oppenheimer a 5pm, capacity comparisons only goes so far (if at all).  Still, I have noted people using Barbenheimer in their analysis, so why not?

 

Not sure about adding any other films, but I am open to suggestions (ie "I'll consider it" 😉 ).  Might finally throw in L&T into the main comp block, but I'm not sure what value that gives that isn't already covered by all of the other MCU flicks. 

 

ETA: 

 

Thought I should add that TGM locally is NEVER going to be a good comparison on daily pace, except maybe for the final week/surge of sales, as that played like a MCU flick locally, so I intentionally left it off of the final percent charts.  But if enough people ask for it, I might relent and add it after all.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	10991	18739	7748	41.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

28

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	83.62		132	9266		0/329	31642/40908	22.65%		21117	36.69%		30.10m	43.65m
BP2	124.73		114	6212		1/294	30810/37022	16.78%		16800	46.12%		34.92m	50.64m
AM3	187.56		63	4131		0/235	28425/32556	12.69%		10475	73.97%		32.82m	47.59m
GOTG3	243.42		76	3183		0/206	26483/29666	10.73%		10750	72.07%		42.60m	61.77m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-20 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	239.51		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	65.90%
JWD	391.12		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	70.65%
Ava 2	364.10		98	2128		0/142	19210/21338	9.97%		8986	86.22%
AtSV	496.99		99	1559		0/123	18343/19902	7.83%		9744	79.52%
Barbie	576.92		80	1343		0/96	11284/12627	10.64%		12077	64.16%
Oppy	882.46		18	878		0/53	7372/8250	10.64%		4621	167.67%
Barben	348.85		98	2221		0/149	18656/20877	10.64%		16698	46.40%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2245/6150  [36.50% sold]

[vafrow]

On 9/23/2023 at 6:00 AM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-21 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,390

New Sales: 45

Growth from yesterday 0.3%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,365

Percentage of seats sold: 66.5%

Tickets per showtime: 174.4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Not much to add. Still in the slow grind.

 

I do like and agree with a lot of the analysis here, particularly @M37 approach. There's no comp roadmap here. Just a question of how much is left to come.

 

My market is probably an outlier in that it's running at the highest capacity of the comps we've seen. It's at 66.5%. But it's averaging less than two showtimes per theatre. Because they originally had matinee shows, they weren't scheduling the early evening show too early, and didn't leave a good option for evening shows.

 

Usual protocol for the chain is that they allocate some screens for advance sale, and the rest become available in their usual updates. For Thursday previews, this happens around T-9, because Thursday is the end of the week cycle. The Friday start means we won't get the new showtimes until T-3 now.

 

At minimum, I expect almost all the mid size theatres (6 to 10 screen) that only got one showtime to get a second theatre added with both an early and late show. Especially since they still will likely need to have capacity to absorb the matinee tickets most likely.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-20 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,444

New Sales: 54

Growth from yesterday 0.3%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  94

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,658

Percentage of seats sold: 66.7%

Tickets per showtime: 174.9

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Nothing too eventful happening. Growth remains low, but steady. 

[vafrow]

On 9/23/2023 at 6:29 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-6), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 234

New sales: 60

Growth from Thursday (T-7): 34%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 2.34

 

0.611x of Equalizer 3 for $2.3M

 0.994x of Gran Turismo for $1.4M

0.412x of Blue Beetle for $1.4M

0.516x of Saw X for???

 

Dropping quickly against comps. Kind of odd that it's more front loaded than existing franchise flicks.

 

I threw in Saw X as a comparitor, which I took last night. Given the same release date, I thought it makes a good comparison. Saw X doing vastly better though.

 

 

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-5), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 266

New sales: 32

Growth from yesterday: 14%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 2.66

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

0.933x of Equalizer 3 for $3.5M

 1.520x of Gran Turismo for $2.1M

0.630x of Blue Beetle for $2.1M

0.672x of Saw X for???

 

I must have had errors in yesterdays numbers, as things have jumped against comps despite a modest growth level. 

 

Equalizer has not been serving as a good comp for me, so taking that out as an outlier, I'd go with $2.1M guess on The Creator for now.

[vafrow]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:08 AM, vafrow said:

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-6, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 180

New Sales: 125

Growth: 227%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime: 1.6

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

11.667x Ruby Gillman (50km radius ) for $8.5M

1.602x Haunted Mansion (100km radius) for $5.0M

0.528x Blue Beetle for $1.7M

0.536x of Saw X for???

0.769x of The Creator for???

 

First off, more strong sales for this, which remains surprising. I'm not sure where it's broadcast these days, but the Paw Patrol brand is owned by a Canadian company, so it might resonate more here. But, it's honestly felt that the whole thing is a bit stale, but that might be bias as my kids have aged our of the demo.

 

The comps are not precise, as I didn't formally track either one. For Ruby, when it was doing so poorly, I did a sweep of a 50km radius to see if it was doing as badly as other trackers.

 

For Haunted Mansion, it was my first foray into a wider track, and I just did 100km radius. 

 

For both comps, I took approximate cut off points in my data to where it lined up, so I'm not comparing my full data set to partial geographic areas. 

 

I went back and added more comps, as the Ruby Gillman and HM make sense from a genre perspective, but not helpful for predictors at this stage.

 

I threw in Blue Beetle as something somewhat kid oriented.

 

I also put in the weekend competitors to see how its trailing. A preschool animated film being competitive with adult skewing fare is impressive.

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-5, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 261

New Sales: 81

Growth: 45%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime: 2.3 

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

0.618x Blue Beetle for $2.0M

0.659x of Saw X for???

0.981x of The Creator for???

 

The Haunted Mansion and Ruby Gillman were sporadic, so no comp today on them, but neither was too useful.

 

This has almost caught Creator, despite that being available a week earlier. I remain impressed by this performance. It's doing really well for a Thursday night.

 

[vafrow]

On 9/22/2023 at 9:28 PM, vafrow said:

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, D2, T-6, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 336

New Sales: 84

Growth: 33%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 4.7

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

1.474x of Equalizer 3 for $5.6M

0.985x of Blue Beetle for $3.3M

 

I didn't get Nun 2 comps at T-6, and I'm pretty sure the formula messed up yesterday. By T-4, when Nun comes back online, the ratio will probably be on ths 2-3 range, so won't seem so abnormal.

 

Still a solid day. I should indicate that only Thursday previews are available right now, so it's probably pushing up Thursday demand a bit. Still, it's a solid performance.

 

Saw X, Thursday previews, T-5, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 396

New Sales: 60

Growth: 18%

Theatre count: 46

Showtimes: 72

Tickets per showtime: 5.5

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

 

COMPS

1.389x of Equalizer 3 for $5.3M

0.938x of Blue Beetle for $3.1M

 

The Nun comp comes back tomorrow, but it's still well ahead. 

[abracadabra1998]

23 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-5, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 261

New Sales: 81

Growth: 45%

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime: 2.3 

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

COMPS

0.618x Blue Beetle for $2.0M

0.659x of Saw X for???

0.981x of The Creator for???

 

The Haunted Mansion and Ruby Gillman were sporadic, so no comp today on them, but neither was too useful.

 

This has almost caught Creator, despite that being available a week earlier. I remain impressed by this performance. It's doing really well for a Thursday night.

 

Are they doing Thursday night previews in Canada for Paw Patrol and not in the US? Strange 

[M37]

17 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Are they doing Thursday night previews in Canada for Paw Patrol and not in the US? Strange 

I was literally about to ask @vafrow the same question …

 

Are these sales for Thursday, or Friday OD? 

[vafrow]

22 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Are they doing Thursday night previews in Canada for Paw Patrol and not in the US? Strange 

 

I haven't been paying attention to the other updates and had no idea they haven't done previews for this in the US.

 

It's a preschool age movie, that shouldn't do that well on a Thursday night, so I can see why theatres might opt to not do previews. But, it makes it's performance thus far in this region pretty suprising.

 

I didn't do a full region track of it, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was outperforming Elemental at the same point in time.