The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Saw this before I made my next-to-last post and this makes sense.  But those ticket sales I just posted a few minutes ago might still be of use, especially maybe the higher end ones. 

If it follows Wick 4 (.75x), then would expect another 823 sold, for a total of 1624 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Worse than that as I have more seat level data now than I did then.  I'll have to tidy up my sheet to see just how much worse.

 

Should remind though that CM over-performed here for whatever reason. There was lots of debate back then, but I never found the answers satisfactory.

 

(also, haven't run numbers recently for lack of caring, but don't forget that Sacramento seemed to be taking a larger share of the DOM back in 2021 than it was in 2019.  Don't know if we've gotten back to 2019 levels or not but I suspect 'rona related closures/movie viewing habits permanently shifted ratios a bit)

CM over performed like crazy at box office. Not just previews or OW but overall domestic and WW BO. After seeing the movie I could not figure out. 

[Porthos]

42 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I just wondered how the 1st movie did with presales and we all know presales have grown a lot in past few years. This has sold like less than 1/3rd based on your initial update.  So I am thinking 8m previews and 55-60m OW is the initial target. But it could go up if the pace picks up. Let us see post Eras OW if the pace is more than norm for what we see for movies in their 2nd week of presales. 

 

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Worse than that as I have more seat level data now than I did then.  I'll have to tidy up my sheet to see just how much worse.

 

Should remind though that CM over-performed here for whatever reason. There was lots of debate back then, but I never found the answers satisfactory.

 

(also, haven't run numbers recently for lack of caring, but don't forget that Sacramento seemed to be taking a larger share of the DOM back in 2021 than it was in 2019.  Don't know if we've gotten back to 2019 levels or not but I suspect 'rona related closures/movie viewing habits permanently shifted ratios a bit)

 

Alright, cleaned up my sheets.

 

For those who don't recall, Captain Marvel had a weird release window where it launched tickets in the late afternoon/early evening (my time at least) after a promotion in a College Football Playoff game.  It then had a looooong pre-sale window of nearly two months (59 days).

 

Even without everything else, that makes things annoying, but just as of Day 2 of presales.

 

The Marvels ≈ 0.31719x Captain Marvel after two days of pre-sales at the exact same sources of tracking.

 

Now that's just the comp and doesn't figure in relative growth or differences in my market (new theaters, different sources of info having different patterns) nor does it reflect pre-sale length windows.

 

As for what adj to use?  I came up slightly higher than you did @keysersoze123.  

 

Went ahead and used official ATPs for 2019 and 2021 to anchor the Eternals comp (1.11026x) and then applied my personal Eternals to 2023 MCU comps of 1.13047x to get... 8.24m

 

Which ironically is higher than you. But then CM has nearly 30 more days of pre-sales so perhaps less than 8m after all.

 

If you want to spit out a different number using the 0.31719x comp, be my guest, but I would guess it wouldn't be all that different.

 

(also is a sign of just how top heavy sales are that DBOX + various other things isn't mattering that much right now)

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Giorno]

37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

CM over performed like crazy at box office. Not just previews or OW but overall domestic and WW BO. After seeing the movie I could not figure out. 

Endgame lead up

First woman led movie in mcu

CBMs were at peak popularity in general ( aquaman and venom printed money for example)

Good reception

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THURSDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
30	139	5229	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

 

0.011x of TET Friday 

 

Show count is really low which makes sense...Maybe tomorrow more chains will add showings. Anyways, so far it doesn't look wide enough to really move the needle much but we shall see

 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THURSDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
122	1554	22893	6.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

 

0.127x of TET Friday 

 

Terrible comps

Looking at more smaller scale previews with similar show counts

T-0 previews 

(0.814x) of Blue beetle $2.69M adj up 45% $3.90M THUR

(0.270x) of Flash $2.64M adj up 45% $3.83M THUR

(0.941x) of Exorcist $2.68M adj up 45% $3.89M THUR

(1.510x) of Saw X $3.02M adj up 45% $4.38M THUR

Average: $4M previews 

[Shawn Robbins]

44 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just curious, do you expect MTC1 to have a normal or over-index for ERAS? Because if all I knew was their numbers, I could buy $120M+, as Friday was trending towards ~$45M (with a 40% ATP bump), and that was before more Friday shows were added 

 

But because this was a co-release, their name prominent at the jump, and such a large share of tickets were bought in the first few days/week, I’m of the opinion they’re going to remain a high-end outlier, the rest of the market not able to catch-up as we typically see with more GA/walk-up friendly releases 

 

I agree with you, my bet is on them over-indexing. To what degree is the big variable, and this is partly where I feel the ATP may be undervalued across the board.

 

Initially, we were all told the average prices would reflect Taylor's picks of $13.13 and $19.89 (correct me if I'm off on those exact figures, I'm typing from memory). But in the weeks since more exhibitors came on, those prices actually ended up higher with IMAX and other premium formats having surcharges (upwards of $30 or more per adult ticket in major markets). Those sales were also not part of the initial wave since it was originally just the big chains.

 

So while I think the initial guesstimate was for all chains to see a 40-45% ticket price boost over the national average this year, what I've seen from the top selling showtimes indicates that could be anywhere between 50 to 80%.

 

Basically, if we're talking raw admissions, I think we're all seeing similar trends. It's that ATP adjustment that feels nebulous and I have a hard time betting against Swift, especially when exhibitors are publicly putting a range like $120-125m for the weekend. They know the risks if they're too high on that.

[Porthos]

 

 

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Should remind though that CM over-performed here for whatever reason. There was lots of debate back then, but I never found the answers satisfactory.

 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

CM over performed like crazy at box office. Not just previews or OW but overall domestic and WW BO. After seeing the movie I could not figure out. 

 

24 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Endgame lead up

First woman led movie in mcu

CBMs were at peak popularity in general ( aquaman and venom printed money for example)

Good reception

 

Not The Marvels Thread Nor The Captain Marvel Thread, but.... I was commenting about how the Sacramento region over-performed RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE DOM market *in regards to previews*. 🙂 

 

You know... Tracking discussion. 😛 

 

It was fairly apparent in the last week of pre-sales that Sacto was acting squirrely for once.  Of all the explanations I've mostly settled on just an insanely large number of screens devoted to it at the last moment, relative to previous releases in my market.

 

About as good an explanation as I have. 

 

Anything else I may or may not have opinions about (and I'll be honest about it, its def "may not") I'll leave to other threads. 😉

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Shawn why so low on Freddy's. All signs from numbers on this thread point to humongous OW. Unless you see horrendous walkups due to day and date on Peacock. 

I don't know if I'd agree $60m is low.

 

That said, the range doesn't include the upper-upper-most band of what I think could happen... but I also think we have to be careful setting expectations too high, too soon. There are a lot of young FNAF fans (pre-teens and teens are the primary fan base), which means a lot of tickets at "bargain" prices compared to a lot of the PG-13 and R films FNAF is being compared to.

 

My other headache is that exhibitors didn't start adding PLF until very recently (that alone should help pump up the ATP), and that -- like you alluded to -- the hybrid release raises concerns for walk-ups for a movie that's already potentially very fan-driven. That's especially if those late embargo reviews go the way of something negative like Exorcist: Believer instead of a more favorable Blumhouse audience movie (which I think is a bit of a factor in strong pre-sales as Blum is also a brand unto himself/itself).

 

I'm just never a fan of an embargo going up hours before start time for a movie that doesn't need to worry about spoilers and is also going to be available to watch at home for (basically) free. That seems like a red flag, but there's also a possibility this kind of movie is review proof on Halloween weekend.

 

TL;DR -- Internally, I'm with you and everyone thinking it's possible this could blow up even more... but looking at the average of all models, I think the current range is in a good spot based on all variables.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2166

2714

79.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2180

3218

67.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11307	169	22941	40.78%	13	145

 

1.791	Barbie T-2	39.93M
1.425	Thor L&T T-2	41.31M
0.952	Doctor Strange MoM T-2	34.29M
0.642	No Way Home T-2	32.09M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2194

3939

55.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2255

3835

58.80%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11690	383	34271	30.10%	13	240

 

1.547	Barbie T-1	34.49M
1.291	Thor L&T T-1	37.43M
0.912	Doctor Strange MoM T-1	32.85M
0.607	No Way Home T-1	30.34M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Friday

178 Showings

12122

+366

23577

ATP:

22.17

0.635	Thor L&T Thurs T-2	18.42M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-2	27.25M
0.472	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-2	16.98M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-2	25.04M
0.411	NWH Thurs T-2	20.55M

 

T-3 Saturday

358 Showings

16002

+330

47459

ATP:

22.01

0.925	Thor L&T Fri T-3	37.53M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-3	56.11M
0.619	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-3	33.85M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-3	50.86M

 

T-4 Sunday

323 Showings

13149

+340

42916

ATP:

21.94

0.800	Thor L&T Sat T-4	33.69M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-4	51.61M
0.480	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-4	27.73M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-4	42.87M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Friday

192 Showings

12906

+784

25334

ATP:

22.14

0.588	Thor L&T Thurs T-1	17.06M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-1	25.19M
0.462	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-1	16.62M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-1	24.46M
0.383	NWH Thurs T-1	19.13M

 

T-2 Saturday

359 Showings

16799

+797

47502

ATP:

22.01

0.824	Thor L&T Fri T-2	33.40M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-2	49.95M
0.577	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-2	31.57M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-2	47.43M
0.526	NWH Fri T-2	37.87M

 

T-3 Sunday

323 Showings

13928

+779

42916

ATP:

21.93

0.732	Thor L&T Sat T-3	30.83M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-3	47.21M
0.460	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-3	26.59M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-3	41.08M
0.424	NWH Sat T-3	31.34M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Friday

164 Showings

11329

+270

22644

1.285

Barbie Thurs T-2

28.66M

 

T-3 Saturday

335 Showings

8764

+322

46317

0.640

Barbie Fri T-3

30.59M

 

T-4 Sunday

291 Showings

5480

+225

41543

0.682

Barbie Sat T-4

29.82M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Friday

220 Showings

11524

+195

30134

1.047

Barbie Thurs T-1

23.34M

 

T-2 Saturday

334 Showings

9495

+731

46050

0.556

Barbie Fri T-2

26.60M

 

T-3 Sunday

291 Showings

6028

+548

41497

0.591

Barbie Sat T-3

25.84M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

167

1104

15.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

99

279

35.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
937	63	10185	9.67%	13	61

 

1.168	The Flash T-15	11.33M
0.616	AtSV T-15	10.70M

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

189

1104

17.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

108

279

38.71%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1005	68	10793	9.74%	13	65

 

1.182	The Flash T-14	11.47M
0.644	AtSV T-14	11.18M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-15 Thursday

94 Showings

3495

+134

11890

ATP:

15.95

1.636	The Flash T-15	15.87M
0.848	AtSV T-15	14.71M

 

T-16 Friday

112 Showings

2961

+162

14479

ATP:

14.97

2.152	The Flash T-16	31.85M
0.868	AtSV T-16	29.96M

 

T-17 Saturday

106 Showings

1945

+136

12844

ATP:

14.55

1.556	The Flash T-17	24.43M
0.550	AtSV T-17	20.57M

 

T-18 Sunday

97 Showings

887

+87

12034

ATP:

13.72

1.821	The Flash T-18	28.23M
0.468	AtSV T-18	14.63M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Thursday

94 Showings

3646

+151

11890

ATP:

15.88

1.656	The Flash T-14	16.06M
0.853	AtSV T-14	14.80M

 

T-15 Friday

112 Showings

3142

+181

14479

ATP:

14.94

2.139	The Flash T-15	31.66M
0.875	AtSV T-15	30.20M

 

T-16 Saturday

106 Showings

2076

+131

12844

ATP:

14.57

1.594	The Flash T-16	25.03M
0.551	AtSV T-16	20.61M

 

T-17 Sunday

97 Showings

928

+41

12034

ATP:

13.75

1.725	The Flash T-17	26.74M
0.449	AtSV T-17	14.04M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-15 Thursday

86 Showings

1284

+57

11121

1.318	The Flash T-15	12.79M
1.148	AtSV T-15	19.93M

 

T-16 Friday

126 Showings

2720

+123

15809

5.056	The Flash T-16	74.83M
2.739	AtSV T-16	94.50M

 

T-17 Saturday

128 Showings

767

+58

16036

2.179	The Flash T-17	34.21M
1.727	AtSV T-17	64.61M

 

T-18 Sunday

118 Showings

212

+9

14794

1.462	The Flash T-18	22.66M
1.010	AtSV T-18	31.55M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Thursday

86 Showings

1329

+45

11128

1.303	The Flash T-14	12.64M
1.137	AtSV T-14	19.72M

 

T-15 Friday

126 Showings

2944

+224

15737

5.050	The Flash T-15	74.74M
2.749	AtSV T-15	94.83M

 

T-16 Saturday

128 Showings

840

+73

16038

2.216	The Flash T-16	34.80M
1.714	AtSV T-16	64.11M

 

T-17 Sunday

118 Showings

221

+9

14794

1.426	The Flash T-17	22.10M
0.987	AtSV T-17	30.83M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

138

3221

4.28%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

110

2202

5.00%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
559	92	23416	2.39%	12	118

 

1.098	The Flash Day 2	10.65M
0.400	Guardians 3 Day 2	7.00M
0.292	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	5.10M
0.719	Eternals Day 2	6.83M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

147

3221

4.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

119

2202

5.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
593	34	23416	2.53%	12	118

 

1.015

The Flash Day 3

9.85M

0.291	Ant-Man 3 Day 3	5.08M
0.711	Eternals Day 3	6.75M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-29 Thursday

168 Showings

1975

+385

25199

ATP:

17.50

1.359	The Flash Day 2	13.18M
0.354	Guardians 3 Day 2	6.19M
0.298	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	5.21M

 

T-30 Friday

225 Showings

1351

+334

35187

ATP:

17.26

1.612	The Flash Day 2	23.86M
0.378	Guardians 3 Day 2	11.56M
0.306	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	8.86M

 

T-31 Saturday

233 Showings

1144

+381

36215

ATP:

16.07

1.571	The Flash Day 2	24.67M
0.292	Guardians 3 Day 2	11.36M
0.265	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	8.98M

 

T-32 Sunday

218 Showings

404

+106

33942

ATP:

15.16

1.398	The Flash Day 2	21.67M
0.239	Guardians 3 Day 2	7.50M
0.261	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	6.74M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-28 Thursday

168 Showings

2204

+229

25199

ATP:

17.45

1.346

The Flash Day 3

13.06M

0.313

Ant-Man 3 Day 3

5.48M

 

T-29 Friday

225 Showings

1520

+169

35187

ATP:

17.19

1.614

The Flash Day 3

23.88M

0.315

Ant-Man 3 Day 3

9.11M

 

T-30 Saturday

233 Showings

1304

+160

36215

ATP:

16.00

1.598

The Flash Day 3

25.09M

0.275

Ant-Man 3 Day 3

9.33M

 

T-31 Sunday

218 Showings

480

+76

33942

ATP:

14.98

1.416

The Flash Day 3

21.95M

0.283

Ant-Man 3 Day 3

7.30M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-29 Thursday

158 Showings

465

+144

25528

0.814

The Flash Day 2

7.90M

 

T-30 Friday

242 Showings

201

+114

39782

0.744

The Flash Day 2

11.02M

 

T-31 Saturday

246 Showings

156

+34

40184

0.825

The Flash Day 2

12.96M

 

T-32 Sunday

241 Showings

56

+13

39429

0.933

The Flash Day 2

14.47M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-28 Thursday

158 Showings

527

+62

25528

0.766

The Flash Day 3

7.43M

 

T-29 Friday

242 Showings

240

+39

39782

0.734

The Flash Day 3

10.86M

 

T-30 Saturday

246 Showings

188

+32

40185

0.825

The Flash Day 3

12.95M

 

T-31 Sunday

241 Showings

78

+22

39429

0.987

The Flash Day 3

15.30M

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I don't know if I'd agree $60m is low.

 

That said, the range doesn't include the upper-upper-most band of what I think could happen... but I also think we have to be careful setting expectations too high, too soon. There are a lot of young FNAF fans (pre-teens and teens are the primary fan base), which means a lot of tickets at "bargain" prices compared to a lot of the PG-13 and R films FNAF is being compared to.

 

My other headache is that exhibitors didn't start adding PLF until very recently (that alone should help pump up the ATP), and that -- like you alluded to -- the hybrid release raises concerns for walk-ups for a movie that's already potentially very fan-driven. That's especially if those late embargo reviews go the way of something negative like Exorcist: Believer instead of a more favorable Blumhouse audience movie (which I think is a bit of a factor in strong pre-sales as Blum is also a brand unto himself/itself).

 

I'm just never a fan of an embargo going up hours before start time for a movie that doesn't need to worry about spoilers and is also going to be available to watch at home for (basically) free. That seems like a red flag, but there's also a possibility this kind of movie is review proof on Halloween weekend.

 

TL;DR -- Internally, I'm with you and everyone thinking it's possible this could blow up even more... but looking at the average of all models, I think the current range is in a good spot based on all variables.

I am with you. But the pace its having feels like Barbie to me. So walkups may not matter if it keep going at this pace. So it should be interesting next 2 weeks. 

[keysersoze123]

I unfortunately dont have any raw data but looking at 6PM shows in NYC(just after 6PM), walkups are just ok. Many shows are almost empty. I think Swift waited too long to make this decision to pull in the release. She should have done it may be week earlier if not from day 1 itself. I am thinking 3-4m at most for the day. 

[jeffthehat]

4 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Did a pull for tonight. All theaters have one 6-7 pm show. 

 

Eras Malco Theaters Thursday T-5 hours 

 

Theater count - 24 

Show count - 24

Seats sold - 440 (5.3% of Fri evening sales)

Total seats - 4036

% sold - 10.9%

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters Thursday T-1 hour

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 24

Seats sold - 629 (+189 since mid-day)

Total seats - 4036

% sold - 15.6%

 

.075x Fri evening (updated 10 AM @ T-1)

 

No later showtimes added on a quick glance