The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

there probably isn't much use tracking Wish until closer to its release (start of November) since it really won't be selling anything crazy over a month from release

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-32

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	529	27838	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

nothing yet

 

387 seats sold at MTC1 Disney over 6 showings 

 

0 seats sold today outside of Disney springs lol

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-31

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	539	27838	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

nothing yet

 

395 seats sold at MTC1 Disney over 6 showings 

 

2 seats sold today outside of Disney springs 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	198	31233	0.63%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.567x) of Elemental $1.36M Previews

 

No sales today. 1 return 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	194	31233	0.62%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-26

 

(0.536x) of Elemental $1.29M Previews

 

No sales today. 4 returns 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2149	52152	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(0.450x) of GOTG3~$7.88M Previews

(1.215x) of Indy 5~$8.75M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.32M

 

Still decreasing against comps

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2166	52152	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(0.453x) of GOTG3~$7.93M Previews

(1.211x) of Indy 5~$8.72M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.33M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
205	3531	38173	9.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

257

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.131x) of Flash $10.97M Previews

(0.763x) of ATSV $13.24M Previews

(1.934x) of Fast X $14.50M Previews

(0.624x) of Barbie $13.16M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.97M

 

Super strong day. Looks like exhibitor's got the memo as lots of showings were added today 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
205	3625	38173	9.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

94

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.121x) of Flash $10.88M Previews

(0.737x) of ATSV $12.78M Previews

(1.885x) of Fast X $14.14M Previews

(0.581x) of Barbie $12.26M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.52M

[Arlborn]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I'll be honest with y'all.  If it wasn't for rips, I'd probably give it practically no thought at all.  Well, very little, at least.

Yeah, I'm more concerned about piracy myself, gamers tend to be a crowd that knows how to pirate stuff.

 

Still, my older daughter knows very well how to pirate stuff and she's still watching it on OD with a crowd of friends and they're all very excited about it apparently, so I guess part of the excitement is being able to watch it with friends who have also played the games

[keysersoze123]

Piracy is a factor in developing markets. I dont think domestic its a factor on BO at all. if people want to watch it at home, they can subscribe to Peacock for 5.99 for a month and the cancel it. its cheaper than going to a multiplex. But Freddys seem to play strong with teens(my high school kid is saying this is the most talked about movie since Barbenheimer). 

 

That said release on Peacock ahead of release is not optimal. Let use see the impact. So far the pace has been fantastic.  

[YM!]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Piracy is a factor in developing markets. I dont think domestic its a factor on BO at all. if people want to watch it at home, they can subscribe to Peacock for 5.99 for a month and the cancel it. its cheaper than going to a multiplex. But Freddys seem to play strong with teens(my high school kid is saying this is the most talked about movie since Barbenheimer). 

 

That said release on Peacock ahead of release is not optimal. Let use see the impact. So far the pace has been fantastic.  

My students were talking about this the other day. Even though they know it’s on Peacock, they want to see it in theaters.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-6, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 787

New sales: 234

Growth: 42.3%

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 24.6

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

9.60x Saw X for $19.2M 

20.1x Nun 2 for $62.6M

13.6l57x Exorcist Believer for $38.7M

 

Local single theatre comp

0.88x of ATSV for $15.3M

 

Another really good day. Outpacing the horror comps. I decided to grab ATSV at the single theatre level. Obviously, less reliable indicator, but, probably closer on ATP. It also was constrained by capacity, 

 

ATSV also really over indexed locally. FNAF holding it's own is extremely impressive.

 

What will slow this down is when full weekend sets open at T-3. That'll reduce Thursday demand as people have options for the weekend.

 

Still, even though my region has not been a reliable indicator, I feel theres momentum here.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-5, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 981

New sales: 194

Growth: 24.7%

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 30.7

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

9.08x Saw X for $18.1M 

N/A for Nun 2 

15.57x Exorcist Believer for $44.4M

 

Local single theatre comps

1.16x of ATSV for $20.2M

0.80x of Barbie for $17.9M

 

This continues it's strong pace. I've thrown in Barbie at the local level, and it's not out of place. Still holding strong against Saw X.

 

It's going to start hitting capacity issues in the next couple of days for the peak time shows. Again, the lack of widespread weekend sets is probably part of that. With the young demographic for this, I expect that people will jump on that when tickets become available on Tuesday.

 

I also am not convinced this is heading towards a horrendous review that'll crush the legs. Demand seems too high, and capacity too low. Plus, younger demos aren't getting out Thursday night to watch this.

 

But, I also recognize that my current tracking may not be the most predictive. Especially with a couple of comps being single theatre comparisons.

 

I'm wondering if this overindexing is a Canadian thing or local thing. If anyone tracking Canadian theatres is looking at this film, I wouldn't mind seeing how their numbers are playing out.

 

 

 

[Potiki]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

But aside from that?  And yes, it is a fairly decent "but"?  We're not talking about HBO Max or Netflix or Disney Plus or Amazon here.  We're talking about *PEACOCK*.

 

I'll be honest with y'all.  If it wasn't for rips, I'd probably give it practically no thought at all.  Well, very little, at least.

Piracy will have an impact for sure.

 

Disney+ and Netflix are in a league of their own when it comes to movie launches that is undeniable, I don't think Peacock is that far off Max or Amazon though at least for the year so far. Peacock had Super Mario that had a decent 717m minute launch ~8m views, which I believe is larger than any Max exclusive film this year. Max will have Barbie (which should do a 1B+ when It debuts) and did share Avatar 2 with Disney+, Amazon's only bigger film than that was I believe Shotgun Wedding in January.

 

The biggest day and date Peacock film so far I imagine would be Halloween Ends (also strangely did 717m minutes viewed) for ~6.5m viewers in 3 days. FNAF funnily enough overlaps with both Mario and Halloween Ends being both a video game and a horror movie and I could see it besting the figure of both of the films, wouldn't be shocked at anywhere from 500m-1B minutes watched depending on reception, need to watch with a crowd etc.. Certainly not going to a Covid like impact of what films were doing in 2020 and 2021 going day and date but still an impact. 

[Flip]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Piracy is a factor in developing markets. I dont think domestic its a factor on BO at all. if people want to watch it at home, they can subscribe to Peacock for 5.99 for a month and the cancel it. its cheaper than going to a multiplex. But Freddys seem to play strong with teens(my high school kid is saying this is the most talked about movie since Barbenheimer). 

 

That said release on Peacock ahead of release is not optimal. Let use see the impact. So far the pace has been fantastic.  

piracy is also more prevalent amound the younger generation that knows how to pirate better due to being more tech savvy, so we could see a lot of the younger fans pirating it.

[keysersoze123]

Five Night at Freddy's

Previews - 70412/379213 1033211.54 2537 shows

Friday - 101931/447954 1506274.03 2927 shows

 

Friday is motoring along. Almost 11K tickets sold over past day. Previews is less relative to friday but that will amp up as well. Sunday should see big boost from Saturday. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26684	27628	944	3.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

28

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	66.29		87	1424		0/96	14119/15543	9.16%		6409	14.73%		7.12m
GOTG3	29.66		76	3183		0/206	26483/29666	10.73%		10750	8.78%		5.19m
TLM	91.47		60	1032		0/153	21550/22582	4.57%		6561	14.39%		9.42m
AtSV	60.55		99	1559		0/123	18343/19902	7.83%		9744	9.69%		10.51m
Flash	102.05		96	925		0/178	24217/25142	3.68%		5327	17.72%		9.90m
Indy 5	96.82		43	975		0/124	18546/19521	4.99%		4767	19.80%		6.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     128/8661  [1.48% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 2.97% of all tickets sold]
3D:            62/5039  [1.23% | 6.57% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26652	27628	976	3.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

32

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	65.99		55	1479		0/96	14064/15543	9.52%		6409	15.23%		7.09m
GOTG3	29.85		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		10750	9.08%		5.22m
TLM	88.33		73	1105		0/153	21474/22579	4.89%		6561	14.88%		9.10m
AtSV	60.96		42	1601		0/123	18301/19902	8.04%		9744	10.02%		10.58m
Flash	100.00		51	976		0/178	24172/25148	3.88%		5327	18.32%		9.70m
Indy 5	95.41		48	1023		0/124	18498/19521	5.24%		4767	20.47%		6.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     145/8661  [1.67% sold]
Matinee:    36/2547  [1.41% | 3.69% of all tickets sold]
3D:            64/5039  [1.27% | 6.56% of all tickets sold]

Edited October 22, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	18194	21064	2870	13.63%

 

Total Showings Added Today	15
Total Seats Added Today	1731
Total Seats Sold Today	151

 

T-6 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	188.69		124	1521		0/163	22454/23975	6.34%		4494	63.86%		14.15m
Scrm6	267.72		63	1072		0/77	8675/9747	11.00%		3134	91.58%		15.26m
Wick4	151.21		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	52.68%		13.46m
AtSV	87.10		266	3295		0/142	19179/22474	14.66%		9744	29.45%		15.11m
GOTG3	58.00		317	4948		0/226	26866/31814	15.55%		10750	26.70%		10.15m
TLM	111.54		151	2573		0/173	21977/24550	10.48%		6561	43.74%		11.49m
Flash	152.01		154	1888		0/178	23257/25145	7.51%		5327	53.88%		14.75m
Barbie	62.80		468	4570		0/180	17188/21758	21.00%		12077	23.76%		14.00m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     576/4382  [13.14% sold]
Matinee:    215/926  [23.22% | 7.49% of all tickets sold]

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	157	18176	21232	3056	14.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	168
Total Seats Sold Today	186

 

T-5 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	182.99		149	1670		0/169	22641/24311	6.87%		4494	68.00%		13.72m
Scrm6	266.43		75	1147		0/77	8600/9747	11.77%		3134	97.51%		15.19m
Wick4	148.06		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	56.09%		13.18m
AtSV	85.53		278	3573		0/142	18901/22474	15.90%		9744	31.36%		14.84m
GOTG3	58.62		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	28.43%		10.26m
TLM	113.31		124	2697		0/175	22324/25021	10.78%		6561	46.58%		11.67m
Flash	151.06		135	2023		0/178	23122/25145	8.05%		5327	57.37%		14.65m
Barbie	60.63		470	5040		1/180	16708/21748	23.17%		12077	25.30%		13.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     637/4382  [14.54% sold]
Matinee:    234/926  [25.27% | 7.66% of all tickets sold]

Edited October 22, 2023 by Porthos

[Grand Cine]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Night at Freddy's

Previews - 70412/379213 1033211.54 2537 shows

Friday - 101931/447954 1506274.03 2927 shows

 

Friday is motoring along. Almost 11K tickets sold over past day. Previews is less relative to friday but that will amp up as well. Sunday should see big boost from Saturday. 

 

For The Fun : I found comparaisons for blockbusters for friday ( MTC1)  :

 

Ant Man 3 ( at T-6) : - 125666/1262120 2229631.04 6654 shows ( a little more than 6k tickets in the last day)

Guardians 3 ( at T-5) :  - 112544/1275548 1957615.44 6919 shows +12360 (so 100184 at t-5 and around 1740000)

ATSV : (at T-4) : - - 107042/925931 1886447.98 4606 shows ( +26K compared at the day before so around 81,5-82K and around 1440000/1445000 at T-5)

 

At this point i think FNAF is around 2/3 of Ant man 3 but with a much better pace , around 85% of Guardians 3 , and around 20% more than ATSV so it's really impressive , it's a real blockbuster at this point . I think FNAF will have more pace than Ant Man 3 and i think ATSV will be too higher for him so i think Guardians 3 will be the most comparative movie .

 

To finish at this point , FNAF have a 36M-38M OD ( 26-28M Friday +10M for thursday ( i prefer to be reasonable) ) .

For the rest of weekend we will have  a 35% down for Sat/Sun and all of it depends of Friday/Saturday bump , if the two days are the same , between 80-84M , if you have a 15-20% jump , between 85,5-93,5

 

I will take the middle and i think we will have,  at this point, a weekend around 80M-90M , and the movie will be in the top 3 of OW for horror movie and it's insane , a another surprise of the year

 

[vafrow]

Is anyone else finding Freelance in a lot more theatres than they would have expected?

 

It's in 28 of 34 theatres in my radius right now. For a film that doesn't have much hype or marketing, it feels like a oversized footprint. It's sold 11 tickets across the ~10 theatre radius I've been using.

[el sid]

34 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Is anyone else finding Freelance in a lot more theatres than they would have expected?

 

It's in 28 of 34 theatres in my radius right now. For a film that doesn't have much hype or marketing, it feels like a oversized footprint. It's sold 11 tickets across the ~10 theatre radius I've been using.

In my theaters it gets an average number of showtimes but it has showtimes in all 7 theaters. And there's much room for improvement presales-wise.

[vafrow]

On 10/21/2023 at 6:03 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-20, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 506

New sales: 26

Growth: 5.4%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 13.0

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.625x of ATSV for $10.8M

 

I'm in the bottom of the U, so not much change.

 

The Marvels, T-19, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 512

New sales: 6

Growth: 1.2%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 13.1

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.625x of ATSV for $10.8M

 

Not much of an update. Totals barely moved, and the local comp was also static. Although, this is around the point where ATSV started moving, so, unless Marvels picks up pace, it'll likely drop.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

Is anyone else finding Freelance in a lot more theatres than they would have expected?

 

It's in 28 of 34 theatres in my radius right now. For a film that doesn't have much hype or marketing, it feels like a oversized footprint. It's sold 11 tickets across the ~10 theatre radius I've been using.

Theaters are pretty desperate for content right now. Taylor and Flower Moon are the only movies pulling grosses over $6M this weekend (and the former only plays on weekends).

[WorkingonaName]

I pirate most movies and am still seeing FNAF with the boys.