The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[PrinceRico]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

My money would be onThe Color Purple and Wonka beating it. One has major Oscar buzz and based on very popular movie and book and one is family friendly. Both should play extremely well over Christmas.

[TwoMisfits]

Just wanted to mention a Fathom event for The Waitress from Dec 7-11.  I can say now that it's outsold Wonka and Color Purple so far in presales where I am, so I'm not sure if this will truly be 5 day or get extended, and we'll have a 3 musical Christmas...

 

This is an actual filming of the musical, so it's closest to Taylor's concert vs a movie musical, I'd think...no idea if that would ultimately sell better or worse, but they are not charging premium tickets.

Edited November 28, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

Yeah lmao at theater owners thinking it all hinges on Bro. No. Migration, Wonka, and Purple are all more likely to do bigger business at this point. 

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Isn't Wonka's social media embargo supposed to end later today? Feel like we're about to find out its fate soon (particularly if the reactions have some level of hesitation in their praise to them).

Nah. Wonka can very easily be a Night at the Museum/Greatest Showman and flop with critics but be huge with audiences. We won’t know its fate until CS at the earliest. 

[babz06]

It seems like theater owners are behind the eight ball on superhero film fatigue. 

[MovieMan89]

Definitely, and I wouldnt be surprised if the big hollywod execs are still being stubborn and bullish on getting the memo too. I think Aquabro possibly being 3rd or 4th for Xmas may be what finally gets Hollywood and theater owners to move past the expectations with CBMs, we are past that era. 

[YM!]

Ticket sales don't really matter for Wonka or Migration. The former can open to 20M and still do 200M if audience reception is good and the latter could even do 150M on a 12M OW. Those depend on audience reception.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

1 hour ago, PrinceRico said:

My money would be onThe Color Purple and Wonka beating it. One has major Oscar buzz and based on very popular movie and book and one is family friendly. Both should play extremely well over Christmas.

Opening aside, these two plus Migration will probably see some very healthy legs over the holiday. I am surprised with the amount of friends that said to me about being excited for Wonka, honestly if it is at least fun the WoM could be huge.

[MovieMan89]

My range for Wonka at this point is like 125-400, so that’s no help lol. But for the others I think they are all aiming for around 100 DOM, but I give the edge to both Migration and Purple to go a bit closer to 150. 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

Ticket sales don't really matter for Wonka or Migration. The former can open to 20M and still do 200M if audience reception is good and the latter could even do 150M on a 12M OW. Those depend on audience reception.

Though 150m would be great for Migration, do think that maybe original animation might just be harder to sell post covid. Elemental was a good start in the right step as it was biggest sense Coco at around 150/495 (also proves to me that Lightyear did due to being shit and if Soul/Luca/TR went theatrical - they'd do about the same if not more), but Wish fumbled the ball badly but I blame shit quality the most as presales were decent until reactions and reviews killed momentum. If the biggest name in animation this decade, can only do under Elemental despite it being a good result means that maybe family animation has become far more sink and swim than pre covid.

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

My range for Wonka at this point is like 125-400, so that’s no help lol. But for the others I think they are all aiming for around 100 DOM, but I give the edge to both Migration and Purple to go a bit closer to 150. 

Thinking range wise:

Wonka: 120-350 (think there's a Jumanji potential but that depends on audience reception. Currently not a single movie excites my family this holiday)

Migration: 100-250 (Illumination usurped Disney to second in biggest name for families due to the Plus taking away event status, but Wonka can eat into families and original animation hasn't been big since Coco and the only real winner as of late is Elemental and maybe (though it's based on a book) Bad Guys but it's also obvious KFP4 won't make March so we may not have a family film until Garfield)

The Color Purple: 50-165 (think biggest potential due to an underserved demographic and presses are looking good but Keyser mentioning Ali hit too close to home)

Aquaman 2: 90-165 (think it should do more than Marvels due to a barren calendar and the former three skew more female than male give it a usualable niche even if it's mediocre and superhero fatigue. Not enough to save it but enough to save some face.)

Edited November 28, 2023 by YM!

[Grand Cine]

I'm wrong , my feelings aren't good this time because Wonka has really good reactions for social media

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, YM! said:

Thinking range wise:

Wonka: 120-350 (think there's a Jumanji potential but that depends on audience reception. Currently not a single movie excites my family this holiday)

Migration: 100-250 (Illumination usurped Disney to second in biggest name for families due to the Plus taking away event status, but Wonka can eat into families and original animation hasn't been big since Coco and the only real winner as of late is Elemental and maybe (though it's based on a book) Bad Guys but it's also obvious KFP4 won't make March so we may not have a family film until Garfield)

The Color Purple: 50-165 (think biggest potential due to an underserved demographic and presses are looking good but Keyser mentioning Ali hit too close to home)

Aquaman 2: 90-165 (think it should do more than Marvels due to a barren calendar and the former three skew more female than male give it a usualable niche even if it's mediocre and superhero fatigue. Not enough to save it but enough to save some face.)

 

Funny enough - same.  Youngest wants to see "something", but is not on board for anything yet.

[dudalb]

Napoleon beat Wish at the box office. I don't think anybody saw that coming.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Funny enough - same.  Youngest wants to see "something", but is not on board for anything yet.

Migration is now too kiddy for the 13 year old cousin and he was far more excited for Blue Beetle than Aquaman and (we first saw that on Max last week) with Wonka being an “I guess”.

 

Mom, who like our family is prime demographics for The Color Purple, is interested in Color Purple the most but not enough to see it theaters. Also musicals aren't her thing.

 

Both my other cousin my age and uncle don't seem to care about anything. Though I think cousin 2 can be talked into Wonka.

[keysersoze123]

Let us see how these reactions help with Wonka presales. Reviews also will be out soon. King has not disappointed for sure. 

[Taylor]

Deadline says $20m domestic and $30-40m worldwide for Beyonce this weekend.

 

https://deadline.com/2023/11/renaissance-a-film-by-beyonce-box-office-preview-1235641798/

[MovieMan89]

27 minutes ago, YM! said:

Migration is now too kiddy for the 13 year old cousin and he was far more excited for Blue Beetle than Aquaman and (we first saw that on Max last week) with Wonka being an “I guess”.

 

Mom, who like our family is prime demographics for The Color Purple, is interested in Color Purple the most but not enough to see it theaters. Also musicals aren't her thing.

 

Both my other cousin my age and uncle don't seem to care about anything. Though I think cousin 2 can be talked into Wonka.

Wonka is “I guess” for most people rn I think, which is going to be HUGE for it if WOM takes off since nothing else is “YES!” It will easily become the holiday choice for pretty much the whole family at that point. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by MovieMan89

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Deadline says $20m domestic and $30-40m worldwide for Beyonce this weekend.

 

https://deadline.com/2023/11/renaissance-a-film-by-beyonce-box-office-preview-1235641798/

Interesting info in the article. 

 

Quote

We hear that Renaissance presales at AMC and Regal theaters, which have a big footprint with Black moviegoing audiences, look very robust, while No. 3 circuit Cinemark does not.

 

[Taylor89]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Interesting info in the article. 

 

 

 

It'll open in 2.7k theaters. Is it even enough for 20m?