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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXR & Friends,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 11159/22844 243210.91 125 shows

Previews(T-6) - 11544/219917 188539.84 1234 shows

Friday - 16366/370796 260193.32 2003 shows

 

Its not bad. Previews PS is growing at a fair clip. I am not sure which movie would be a good comp for this one. Just looking at raw data, it looks like around 3m previews and probably mid 20s OW. But let us see close to release how its doing. Weird it has fewer shows so far compared to Beekeeper despite better sales overall. 

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 11918/22844 258766.32 125 shows +761

Previews(T-5) - 13228/224438 215619.48 1257 shows +1684

Friday - 19304/383777 307289.86 2070 shows +2938

 

Another solid day. I am sticking to my numbers yesterday. 

 

5 hours ago, M37 said:

I'm just going to note again, the fact that the EA sales are so strong, basically matching the full Thursday preview (which is only now catching up as EA is over 50% capacity) to me is a red flag

 

Reminds me a bit of Don't Worry Darling and the IMAX Live event, which turned a $3.1M total preview into just a $19.3M weekend.  Mean Girls might get to $20M with the help of the holiday from that same $3M+, but would be cautious in expecting a typical walk-up rate in sales and IM

 

Reason I went so high is looking at how much faster Friday pace is relative to previews. Its already close to double the thusday pace. That kind of points to better IM than norm. Plus Sunday will have a soft drop as you have already mentioned. 

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misterpepp Sleeper Hit

misterpepp

Posted
Posted

Would anyone else be willing to contribute to the pinned presales Drive spreadsheet? I'm still doing my best to update it with dates I come across, but there's a lot of EA showtimes, review embargo dates, etc. that are missing, and I'd greatly appreciate anyone spending the time to add incomplete data. Seems Katniss has been AFK for a while, hope that doesn't mean more people can't add to it.

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Would anyone else be willing to contribute to the pinned presales Drive spreadsheet? I'm still doing my best to update it with dates I come across, but there's a lot of EA showtimes, review embargo dates, etc. that are missing, and I'd greatly appreciate anyone spending the time to add incomplete data. Seems Katniss has been AFK for a while, hope that doesn't mean more people can't add to it.

Another addition could be adding EA and Previews gross. Sometime studios dont separate them, not a big issue at that time but in future there is lack of comp information.

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abracadabra1998 Box Office Gold

abracadabra1998

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Might have to start a new spreadsheet. I don't think I have to ability to add new editors. :(


I could definitely try to help! (As well as retroactively add some information that might have been missed and that I have on my spreadsheets :) 

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abracadabra1998 Box Office Gold

abracadabra1998

Posted
Posted
On 1/4/2024 at 9:22 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Beekeeper (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-2 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters 57 28 69 9241 0.75
Saturday Jan 6 EA: 10 theaters 10 113 133 2522 5.27
TOTALS: 67 141 202 11763 1.72

 

Type of tix:* Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 32 32 46.38
MTC1: 57 57 82.61
Marcus: 6 6 8.7
Alamo: 0 0 0
Other chains: 6 6 8.7

*This chart is for Thursday previews numbers only

 

Thursday Comps:

0.73x The Equalizer 3: $2.79 Million

1.82x Expend4bles: $1.36 Million

 

Average: $2.08 Million

 

Do think it'll be closer to that Expend4bles number, Equalizer 3 notoriously underperformed here (not a very diverse metro area). EA looks decent, maybe close to $500k thinking about friendlier SAT walk-ups (and it's all PLF). Overall not bad at this stage to be honest.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Beekeeper (T-4):

Day: T-4 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 15 theaters 59 30 99 9405 1.05

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 49 17 49.49
MTC1: 78 21 78.79
Marcus: 8 2 8.08
Alamo: 0 0 0
Other chains: 13 7 13.13

 

Comps:

0.88x The Equalizer 3: $3.33 Million

1.48x Expend4bles: $1.11 Million

 

Average: $2.22 Million

 

Again, thinking closer to Expend4bles than Equalizer at the moment.

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abracadabra1998 Box Office Gold

abracadabra1998

Posted
Posted
On 1/4/2024 at 9:36 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mean Girls (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters 43 101 219 6880 3.18
Wednesday Jan 10 EA: 6 theaters 6 88 237 1325 17.89
TOTALS: 49 189 456 8205 5.56

 

Type of tix:* Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 70 37 31.96
MTC1: 103 49 47.03
Marcus: 21 12 9.59
Alamo: 20 9 9.13
Other chains: 75 31 34.25

*Chart for Thursday preview tickets only

 

Thursday comps:

0.73x Wonka: $2.56 Million

0.3x Hunger Games BoSS: $1.75 Million

0.0755x Barbie: $1.6 Million

0.82x Don't Worry Darling: $2.54 Million

 

Average: $2.11 Million

 

EA comps:

0.66x Trolls EA: $775k

1.9x Wish EA: $950k

0.49x TMNT EA: $815k

0.55x MI7 EA: $1.1 Million

 

Average: $910k

 

Pretty nice Thursday jump while EA keeps chugging along. This seems to be indexing less at MTC1 versus say Wonka or Hunger Games. Pretty low PLF numbers though

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mean Girls (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters 43 112 331 6880 4.81
Wednesday Jan 10 EA: 6 theaters 6 87 324 1325 24.45
TOTALS: 49 199 655 8205 7.98

 

Type of tix:* Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 118 118 35.65
MTC1: 152 152 45.92
Marcus: 37 37 11.18
Alamo: 25 25 7.55
Other chains: 117 117 35.35

*Chart for Thursday preview tickets only

 

Thursday comps:

0.9x Wonka: $3.17 Million

0.31x Hunger Games BoSS: $1.81 Million

0.0838x Barbie: $1.78 Million

0.75x Don't Worry Darling: $2.33 Million

 

Average: $2.27 Million

 

EA comps:

0.55x Trolls EA: $640k

1.62x Wish EA: $810k

0.57x MI7 EA: $1.13 Million

 

Average: $860K

 

Still seeing $3 Million combined EA + previews here, but I am wondering if this will behave more like HG/Barbie or Wonka. I think DWD is the best comp here, since this won't be as family walk-ups strong as Wonka.

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abracadabra1998 Box Office Gold

abracadabra1998

Posted
Posted

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Book of Clarence (T-4):

Day: T-4 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 11 theaters 26 12 12 2728 0.44

 

Not even gonna bother with comps since they would show this under $100k, just wanted to show how terribly this is doing.

 

I.S.S (T-11):

Day: T-11 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 12 theaters 31 16 16 2996 0.53

 

Comps:

0.1x The Creator: $140k

 

Not exactly a hot start...

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/6/2024 at 10:03 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 11918/22844 258766.32 125 shows +761

Previews(T-5) - 13228/224438 215619.48 1257 shows +1684

Friday - 19304/383777 307289.86 2070 shows +2938

Mean Girls MTC1

Wednesday - 12892/22844 278618.08 125 shows +974

Previews(T-4) - 15499/226676 252671.61 1270 shows +2271

Friday - 24295/385871 386541.29 2081 shows +4991

 

Its definitely amping up. As I said yesterday. Friday pace is confirming its going to have a good IM. 

Edited by keysersoze123
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Eric the Minion Global Phenomenon

Eric the Minion

Posted
Posted

Quorum Updates

Madame Web T-37: 28.79%

Ordinary Angels T-46: 20.56%

The First Omen T-88: 23.18%

Project Artemis T-186: 11.83%

White Bird T-270: 10.94%

 

The Beekeeper T-4: 43.17% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 51% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Medium Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 46% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

 

The Book of Clarence T-4: 26.72% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Mean Girls T-4: 59.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

 

I.S.S. T-11: 24.46% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-32: 27.76% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M

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Kon Box Office Gold

Kon

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Mean Girls heading towards a $3 mil preview number? What is this, deja vu?

 

Deja vu? Has the original Mean Girls the same preview number?

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

The Beekeeper, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 76 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 15 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): so far no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 48 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 60 (6 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 207.

Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Expend4bles (750k from previews) had 130 sold tickets,
Plane (435k) had 89,
Meg 2 (3.2M) had 254

and The Equalizer 3 (4.8M) had 431 sold tickets.
Operation Fortune (220k) had on Wednesday (= 2 days left for The Beekeeper) 96 sold tickets.

Average (without OF): 1.65M. Quite good but I guess the number will go down in the next few days.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

The Book of Clarence is pretty weak in my theaters too. It had today 42 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 4 of the 7 theaters).
Comp: Honk for Jesus (1.4M OW) had also on Monday of the release week for Thursday 37 sold tickets.

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