The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

Can someone remind me, what is the accepted estimate for True Thursday for Batman and TGM? Like $16.6M ($5M total EA) and $15.26M ($4M EA) respectively? Or a little lower or higher?

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Can someone remind me, what is the accepted estimate for True Thursday for Batman and TGM? Like $16.6M ($5M total EA) and $15.26M ($4M EA) respectively? Or a little lower or higher?

 

 

Can't recall about TGM (I'll check it in a moment), but @Shawn Robbins had The Batman at $2m for both Tue and Wed and so 17.6 True Thursday for Batsy.

 

Quote

Friday Report: Warner Bros. reports this morning that The Batman earned $21.6 million from all domestic previews entering Friday.

 

That includes IMAX fan event screenings on Tuesday, AMC Investor Connect and some miscellaneous other shows on Wednesday, followed by traditional previews at an estimated 3,300 locations on Thursday.

 

While the studio is not officially confirming any daily break down, unconfirmed sources report that an estimated $2 million came from each of Tuesday and Wednesday’s screenings. That would translate to a true Thursday haul of $17.6 million.

 

Didn't check to see if he had later confirmation altering those initial numbers in a different update/post here.

Edited February 22 by Porthos

[Porthos]

@M37 Took a look at BOP, Deadline, and Variety and didn't see anything official or semi-official for TGM Tue/Wed/Thr breakdowns (it did have an extremely limited AMC "investor connect" showtimes + a smattering of tiny chains on Wed that didn't amount to much at all).

 

Perhaps Shawn has access to something, maybe?

 

(just tagged him in my last post, so I'll do his notifications a favor and not re-tag him)

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@M37 Took a look at BOP, Deadline, and Variety and didn't see anything official or semi-official for TGM Tue/Wed/Thr breakdowns (it did have an extremely limited AMC "investor connect" showtimes + a smattering of tiny chains on Wed that didn't amount to much at all).

 

Perhaps Shawn has access to something, maybe?

 

(just tagged him in my last post, so I'll do his notifications a favor and not re-tag him)

Don’t think it was ever reported as a specific breakdown, was asking more what the tracking team (you, Keyser, Charlie, etc) consensus was (hence the phrasing as “accepted estimate”)
 

Just thinking a bit more in depth about potential IM/expected FFS beyond just the 8x ballpark estimate 

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/21/2024 at 3:43 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1094	39	1353	80.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

548

2092

26.20%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

510

2137

23.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2517	152	20904	12.04%	13	107

 

1.276	Oppenheimer T-8	13.40M
2.701	Indiana Jones T-8	19.44M

0.655	Ant-Man 3 T-8	11.46M
0.758	Avatar 2 T-8	12.89M
0.446	Thor L&T T-8	12.94M

2.055

Dune Part 1 T-8

10.48M

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1128	34	1353	83.37%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

573

2092

27.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

533

2137

24.94%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2688	171	20904	12.86%	13	107

 

1.238	Oppenheimer T-7	12.99M
2.743	Indiana Jones T-7	19.75M

0.756	Avatar 2 T-7	12.85M
0.457	Thor L&T T-7	13.24M
0.886	Batman T-7*	19.15M
2.055	Dune Part 1 T-7	10.48M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

Don’t think it was ever reported as a specific breakdown, was asking more what the tracking team (you, Keyser, Charlie, etc) consensus was (hence the phrasing as “accepted estimate”)
 

Just thinking a bit more in depth about potential IM/expected FFS beyond just the 8x ballpark estimate 

I think tuesday is higher than wednesday. I would say 2.4/1.6m split. 

 

Edit: its also perfectly possible for wednesday to be 2m and overall pre thursday total to be closer to 4.5m. I must admit I was pleasantly surprised by TGM previews. It definitely under indexed at MTC1.  

Edited February 22 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/21/2024 at 3:45 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-8 Thursday

202 Showings

10412

+524

28770

ATP:

17.92

0.638	Barbie T-8	14.23M
1.853	Oppenheimer T-8	19.45M
1.899	Indiana Jones T-8	13.68M

1.951	Avatar T-8	33.16M
0.770	Thor L&T T-8	22.34M

 

T-9 Friday

265 Showings

11987

+461

38894

ATP:

17.59

0.726	Barbie T-9	35.01M
1.838	Oppenheimer T-9	41.38M
2.449	Indiana Jones T-9	41.15M

1.707	Avatar T-9	61.79M
1.044	Thor L&T T-9	42.32M

 

T-10 Saturday

277 Showings

13984

+476

40712

ATP:

17.08

0.806	Barbie T-10	38.54M
1.753	Oppenheimer T-10	46.53M
2.938	Indiana Jones T-10	54.58M

1.737	Avatar T-10	77.00M
1.287	Thor L&T T-10	54.19M

 

T-11 Sunday

249 Showings

9341

+388

36440

ATP:

17.10

0.713	Barbie T-11	31.17M
1.769	Oppenheimer T-11	41.03M
3.307	Indiana Jones T-11	59.85M

1.850	Avatar T-11	67.66M
1.543	Thor L&T T-11	50.16M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-7 Thursday

205 Showings

10919

+507

28962

ATP:

17.87

0.632	Barbie T-7	14.09M
1.816	Oppenheimer T-7	19.07M
1.923	Indiana Jones T-7	13.85M

1.823	Avatar T-7	30.99M
0.767	Thor L&T T-7	22.24M
1.002	Batman T-7*	17.64M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-8 Friday

271 Showings

12579

+592

39494

ATP:

17.53

0.708	Barbie T-8	34.12M
1.762	Oppenheimer T-8	39.67M
2.471	Indiana Jones T-8	41.51M

1.689	Avatar T-8	61.14M
1.054	Thor L&T T-8	42.74M
1.164	Batman T-8	40.83M

 

T-9 Saturday

280 Showings

14589

+605

40859

ATP:

17.05

0.778	Barbie T-9	37.21M
1.655	Oppenheimer T-9	43.94M
2.984	Indiana Jones T-9	55.44M

1.719	Avatar T-9	76.22M
1.283	Thor L&T T-9	54.05M
1.353	Batman T-9	58.55M

 

T-10 Sunday

252 Showings

9890

+549

36587

ATP:

17.03

0.699	Barbie T-10	30.53M
1.716	Oppenheimer T-10	39.78M
3.339	Indiana Jones T-10	60.44M

1.835	Avatar T-10	67.09M
1.552	Thor L&T T-10	50.44M
2.032	Batman T-10	69.36M

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/21/2024 at 3:47 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-8 Thursday

105 Showings

1647

+103

17720

1.002	Oppenheimer T-8	10.52M
1.455	Indiana Jones T-8	10.48M

 

T-9 Friday

163 Showings

2320

+170

27893

1.184	Oppenheimer T-9	26.67M
2.691	Indiana Jones T-9	45.22M

 

T-10 Saturday

169 Showings

2234

+177

29021

1.502	Oppenheimer T-10	39.44M
4.815	Indiana Jones T-10	89.46M

 

T-11 Sunday

171 Showings

902

+134

28732

1.178	Oppenheimer T-11	27.31M
4.533	Indiana Jones T-11	82.04M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-7 Thursday

109 Showings

1810

+163

18353

1.075	Oppenheimer T-7	11.29M
1.700	Indiana Jones T-7	12.24M

 

T-8 Friday

166 Showings

2592

+272

28333

1.148	Oppenheimer T-8	25.86M
2.689	Indiana Jones T-8	45.17M

 

T-9 Saturday

172 Showings

2435

+201

29459

1.372	Oppenheimer T-9	36.01M
4.784	Indiana Jones T-9	88.88M

 

T-10 Sunday

176 Showings

1049

+147

29231

1.129	Oppenheimer T-10	26.19M
5.019	Indiana Jones T-10	90.85M

[M37]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think tuesday is higher than wednesday. I would say 2.4/1.6m split. 

For Batman, correct? Which was IMAX only and then PLF/Investor on day 2? And TGM lower? 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

For Batman, correct? Which was IMAX only and then PLF/Investor on day 2? And TGM lower? 

Maverick. 

 

Bats I did not track MTC1 as I had issues for few months between NWH to mid 2022. But @ZackM did post early sales numbers. MTC2 was mostly on March 2nd as March 1st was all Imax and there were just 14 imax shows at MTC2. I think 2m each might be accurate for it for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

On 2/17/2024 at 8:56 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040

Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002

 

5 days plus few hours later. Meh pace as expected. 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 6262/307122 94520.78 2018 shows +1552

Friday - 6076/458201 90901.88 2874 shows +1671

 

Slightly under 5 days of data. 2 weeks to go for this movie's release.  

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
577	6237	109155	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

263

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2469

*80 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.221x) of Oppenheimer $12.83M 

(0.525x) of Barbie $11.07M 

(0.605x) of ATSV $10.50M 

(2.481x) of Wonka $8.68M 

(2.303x) of Aquaman 2 $10.36M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.69M

 

Review bump is here, but nothing crazy. Let's see how it goes tomorrow. Switched Flash comp for ATSV

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	6571	112287	5.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

334

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2553

*84 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.149x) of Oppenheimer $12.07M 

(0.490x) of Barbie $10.35M 

(0.598x) of ATSV $10.37M 

(2.351x) of Wonka $8.23M 

(2.334x) of Aquaman 2 $10.50M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.30M

 

Mild review bump continues.

 

Couple of things to note: I might remove Barbie comp since that may drop all the way down to $8M by T-0. Oppy comp will be around $10M by T-0 if i had to guess. 

 

Not too confident about $80M anymore, but still feel $75M+ is happening 

[joselowe]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	6571	112287	5.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

334

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2553

*84 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.149x) of Oppenheimer $12.07M 

(0.490x) of Barbie $10.35M 

(0.598x) of ATSV $10.37M 

(2.351x) of Wonka $8.23M 

(2.334x) of Aquaman 2 $10.50M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.30M

 

Mild review bump continues.

 

Couple of things to note: I might remove Barbie comp since that may drop all the way down to $8M by T-0. Oppy comp will be around $10M by T-0 if i had to guess. 

 

Not too confident about $80M anymore, but still feel $75M+ is happening 

Live in Miami and numbers in South Florida are lukewarm at best for Dune 2. Hope it improves by early next week. So far no sold out shows.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Box Office Pro LONG RANGE FORECAST is out:

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-ghostbusters-frozen-empire/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/22/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
2/29/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000		$7,000,000 – $16,000,000		Angel Studios
3/1/2024	Dune: Part Two	$65,000,000 – $80,000,000	+9%	$164,000,000 – $213,000,000	+12%	Warner Bros. Pictures
3/8/2024	Accidental Texan					Roadside Attractions
3/8/2024	Cabrini					Angel Studios
3/8/2024	Imaginary	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	-9%	$37,000,000 – $63,000,000	-9%	Lionsgate
3/8/2024	Kung Fu Panda 4	$30,000,000 – $39,000,000		$103,000,000 – $142,000,000		Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation
3/15/2024	1992	$5,000,000 – $9,000,000		$12,000,000 – $27,000,000		Lionsgate
3/15/2024	Arthur The King	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000		$36,000,000 – $68,000,000		Lionsgate
3/22/2024	One Life					Bleecker Street
3/22/2024	The American Society of Magical Negroes					Focus Features
3/22/2024	Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$35,000,000 – $49,000,000		$96,000,000 – $144,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/22/2024	Luca					Disney / Pixar
3/29/2024	Asphalt City					Vertical & Roadside Attractions
3/29/2024	Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000		$78,000,000 – $105,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
3/29/2024	In the Land of Saints and Sinners

[Porthos]

First showtimes for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire are now up (though not for sale yet).

 

...

 

Any one want to guess the start time for previews?

 

...

 

C'mon. you know you wanna!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, as part of my running this bit into the ground, we have another 2pm Previews entry.  "Yay."

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yes, as part of my running this bit into the ground, we have another 2pm Previews entry.  "Yay."

Given the genie is already way out of the bottle, that start time does make sense for family skewing product (or longer films), especially for GB:FE when some decent share of schools will be on Spring Break for Thur/Fri

[keysersoze123]

26 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

 

Not too confident about $80M anymore, but still feel $75M+ is happening 

you are projecting that just by looking at preview info?

[cooldude97]

15 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Box Office Pro LONG RANGE FORECAST is out:

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-ghostbusters-frozen-empire/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/22/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
2/29/2024	The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000		$7,000,000 – $16,000,000		Angel Studios
3/1/2024	Dune: Part Two	$65,000,000 – $80,000,000	+9%	$164,000,000 – $213,000,000	+12%	Warner Bros. Pictures
3/8/2024	Accidental Texan					Roadside Attractions
3/8/2024	Cabrini					Angel Studios
3/8/2024	Imaginary	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	-9%	$37,000,000 – $63,000,000	-9%	Lionsgate
3/8/2024	Kung Fu Panda 4	$30,000,000 – $39,000,000		$103,000,000 – $142,000,000		Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation
3/15/2024	1992	$5,000,000 – $9,000,000		$12,000,000 – $27,000,000		Lionsgate
3/15/2024	Arthur The King	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000		$36,000,000 – $68,000,000		Lionsgate
3/22/2024	One Life					Bleecker Street
3/22/2024	The American Society of Magical Negroes					Focus Features
3/22/2024	Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$35,000,000 – $49,000,000		$96,000,000 – $144,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/22/2024	Luca					Disney / Pixar
3/29/2024	Asphalt City					Vertical & Roadside Attractions
3/29/2024	Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000		$78,000,000 – $105,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
3/29/2024	In the Land of Saints and Sinners

those are godamn awful numbers for GxK, and under Ghostbusters?

[M37]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-7 Thursday

109 Showings

1810

+163

18353

1.075	Oppenheimer T-7	11.29M
1.700	Indiana Jones T-7	12.24M

 

The most (potentially) promising update of the day, as despite the strong sales numbers reported today so far, this is the only comp (so far) that didn't lose ground to Oppy, but went UP.

 

If there were to be a review bump effect that succeeds in moving some casuals/GA off the fence, this is the type of middle-tier market where it would be most likely to show.  (Also in MTC1, which covers a lot of those as well)

[Porthos]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

Given the genie is already way out of the bottle, that start time does make sense for family skewing product (or longer films), especially for GB:FE when some decent share of schools will be on Spring Break for Thur/Fri

 

I mean, yeah, I fully expected it/completely not a surprise.

 

At the same time, who am I to turn up an opportunity to beat a dead horse?

 

(prob get tired of the joke Real Soon Now, but not quite yet 😉) 

Edited February 23 by Porthos