The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

It's bizarre how May 31 is still empty aside from that Disney movie with Daisy Ridley that's probably being dumped (it was originally a Disney+ exclusive so...).

 

The Watchers should've moved up instead of back a week where it's opening opposite Inside Out 2.

[Minnale101]

Just looking at dune tickets tonight I live in Brampton which is suberb of Toronto 

 

it’s pretty dry honestly i would say 10-15% occupancy, need big walk ups 

 

https://www.cineplex.com/movie/dune-part-two?ic=cpx_tdp-moviegrid-en&openTM=true

 

can click get tickets and then preview seats to check

 

It maybe doing better in Toronto with imax 

Edited February 29 by Minnale101

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

15 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The movie will premiere at some festival early next month, SXSW i think. 
 

So there’ll be reactions and reviews out very soon, my guess is that they expect them to be good and will try to sell tickets with them, so it’s starting early.

Oh yeah I knew about it premiering at SXSW. I get what they’re going for but I think that any sales off of that premiere will go down quickly. Feel like it’d be smarter to let word go around for a week or two (assuming the response is good) and then start in late March/beginning of April to keep some consistent momentum, though I think that might be a bit early too.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Just looking at dune tickets tonight I live in Brampton which is suberb of Toronto 

 

it’s pretty dry honestly i would say 10-15% occupancy, need big walk ups 

 

https://www.cineplex.com/movie/dune-part-two?ic=cpx_tdp-moviegrid-en&openTM=true

 

can click get tickets and then preview seats to check

 

It maybe doing better in Toronto with imax 

Brampton is basically India. Dune will obviously won't do well there.

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Brampton is basically India. Dune will obviously won't do well there.

I do know there a lot of Indians, I didn’t know they didn’t like dune hahah, but I think Star Wars also didn’t do well in India? So maybe just science fiction isn’t so big over there 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's bizarre how May 31 is still empty aside from that Disney movie with Daisy Ridley that's probably being dumped (it was originally a Disney+ exclusive so...).

 

The Watchers should've moved up instead of back a week where it's opening opposite Inside Out 2.

*Hope I’m not going too off topic*

 

With Watchers, I see where you’re coming from but I can imagine WB sees it as better counter-programming to Inside Out compared to the more adult-oriented Bad Boys and Crow.

[vafrow]

9 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Just looking at dune tickets tonight I live in Brampton which is suberb of Toronto 

 

it’s pretty dry honestly i would say 10-15% occupancy, need big walk ups 

 

https://www.cineplex.com/movie/dune-part-two?ic=cpx_tdp-moviegrid-en&openTM=true

 

can click get tickets and then preview seats to check

 

It maybe doing better in Toronto with imax 

 

If you take a look at my update, it shows performance for western part of the GTA. I don't capture Brampton anymore specifically, but I grab Milton/some Mississauga and Oakville.

 

If a theatre doesn't have an IMAX screen in this area, performance is probably close to Madame Web. But the places with IMAX are pulling it up.

 

Brampton fans that are keen are probably making the trip down to Courtney Park or even Vaughan.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Dune: Part 2	PLF	28	1,607	1,607	7,132	22.53%
		Standard	64	551	551	7,319	7.53%
	Total		92	2,158	2,158	14,451	14.93%

 

T-0 comps

 - Oppenheimer - .941x (9.88m)

 - Avatar 2 - .384x (6.53m)

 - Top Gun 2- .422x (6.2m)

 - Nope - 1.7x (10.87m)

 

I lean much more on the Oppy comp than anything else.  I will also note that one of the theaters isn't loading any showtimes for today.  It had 106 sales in two shows for Oppy previews.  I'm not sure if they are closed today, if the site is just down, or what happened but I could be missing some sales.  Either way, I'm still leaning around 9.5m previews

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Dune: Part 2	PLF	28	1,607	1,607	7,132	22.53%
		Standard	64	551	551	7,319	7.53%
	Total		92	2,158	2,158	14,451	14.93%

 

T-0 comps

 - Oppenheimer - .941x (9.88m)

 - Avatar 2 - .384x (6.53m)

 - Top Gun 2- .422x (6.2m)

 - Nope - 1.7x (10.87m)

 

I lean much more on the Oppy comp than anything else.  I will also note that one of the theaters isn't loading any showtimes for today.  It had 106 sales in two shows for Oppy previews.  I'm not sure if they are closed today, if the site is just down, or what happened but I could be missing some sales.  Either way, I'm still leaning around 9.5m previews

Do you have theater wise sales stored? How is Oppy comp without the big one, what's it called... Palladium something.

[Tinalera]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Brampton is basically India. Dune will obviously won't do well there.

Ive heard Brampton described in many ways, but Ive never heard it described as India lol. Im not agreeing or disagreeing, im just saying thats a new analogy for me

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Do you have theater wise sales stored? How is Oppy comp without the big one, what's it called... Palladium something.

Excluding Palladium

 - Oppenheimer - .815x (8.57m)

 

If I also exclude Silverado (the one that's not working today)..

 - Oppenheimer - .894x (9.39m)

[Minnale101]

12 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

If you take a look at my update, it shows performance for western part of the GTA. I don't capture Brampton anymore specifically, but I grab Milton/some Mississauga and Oakville.

 

If a theatre doesn't have an IMAX screen in this area, performance is probably close to Madame Web. But the places with IMAX are pulling it up.

 

Brampton fans that are keen are probably making the trip down to Courtney Park or even Vaughan.

Yeahh it seems like it’s such huge impact movie since movie is specifically for hardcore audiences it bodes well for legs in that department

 

good thing march and April are dry for big imax movies 

 

but it skewing mainly to imax group definitely puts limit it breaking out without support of small cities 

[vafrow]

30 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Just looking at dune tickets tonight I live in Brampton which is suberb of Toronto 

 

it’s pretty dry honestly i would say 10-15% occupancy, need big walk ups 

 

https://www.cineplex.com/movie/dune-part-two?ic=cpx_tdp-moviegrid-en&openTM=true

 

can click get tickets and then preview seats to check

 

It maybe doing better in Toronto with imax 

 

Got bored, so thought I'd give it quick analysis based on the few situations where I have data on Brampton specifically.

 

For Dune 2, it's sold 72 tickets.

 

Comparing to morning of pulls, it's:

 

0.541x The Marvels for a  $3.6M comparable.

 

0.184x FNAF for $1.9M

 

So, it's not your imagination. It's not doing well in your theatre. Likely a combination of lack of IMAX, and general market preferences.

[jeffthehat]

20 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-1	1836	11158	62	+14.2%
Fri	T-2	2860	30713	170	+24.4%

Thursday Comps

1.85x The Marvels T-1= $12.2m

1.94x HG BoSS T-1 = $11.1m

Friday Comps

1.77x The Marvels T-2 = $24.9m

1.69x HG BoSS T-2 = $22.4m

2.29x Wonka T-2 = $25.0m

 

Avg Thu = $11.65m

Avg Fri = $24.1m

---

Baffling drop in my Friday comps. May have something to do with the way I was tracking added showtimes back then (was checking manually, probably not often enough). Could also be the sales level this is at and the effect of added showtimes/blocked seats (this chain has a lot of blocked seats counted as sales and adds a crap ton of shows week of). 

 

Regardless, was thinking ~$36m Thu/Fri before EA, so nice to see the data pointing to it. 

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-0	2205	11737	66	+20.1%

Thursday Comps

1.82x The Marvels T-0= $12.0m

1.86x HG BoSS T-0 = $10.7m

4.19x Wonka T-0 = $14.6m

2.82x FNaF T-0 = $29.1m*

0.19x T-Swift Eras Fri T-0 = $8.3m / $4.98m ATP adjusted (-40%)**

*two-day presales window

** just guessing on ATP adjustment

---

Gonna overindex here. But I'm reading it as a positive sign, as this chain is mostly tiny cities in the South. A lot of markets are pointing to sub-$10m at finish, but also seeing a lot of $11m+. Truth is probably in the middle, so I'll go $10.1m +/- 0.4m today. 

 

[Minnale101]

4 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Got bored, so thought I'd give it quick analysis based on the few situations where I have data on Brampton specifically.

 

For Dune 2, it's sold 72 tickets.

 

Comparing to morning of pulls, it's:

 

0.541x The Marvels for a  $3.6M comparable.

 

0.184x FNAF for $1.9M

 

So, it's not your imagination. It's not doing well in your theatre. Likely a combination of lack of IMAX, and general market preferences.

Yeah sliver city Brampton is by far biggest threater in Brampton, Brampton not a small city, 750k people 

 

like Charlie said, Brampton leans heavily towards Indian movies, comic book movies cuz of the massive Indian population and there taste 

 

it’s a outlier I would say 

[vafrow]

6 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Yeah sliver city Brampton is by far biggest threater in Brampton, Brampton not a small city, 750k people 

 

like Charlie said, Brampton leans heavily towards Indian movies, comic book movies cuz of the massive Indian population and there taste 

 

it’s a outlier I would say 

 

Definitely. It's a unique market, to say the least. 

 

But it's pretty mind boggling, that a city that is forecasted to become the second biggest in the province, overtaking Ottawa, currently only has one, 25 year old theatre from the major chains, with no plans for anything new that I'm aware of.

 

Demographics play a big part, but, it's still very underserved. 

[grumpythepenguin]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

But it's pretty mind boggling, that a city that is forecasted to become the second biggest in the province, overtaking Ottawa, currently only has one, 25 year old theatre from the major chains, with no plans for anything new that I'm aware of.

 

The movie theatres in Brampton and the surrounding area have been getting threats around screening South Indian films so there have been challenges trying to expand the market: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-cineplex-south-indian-film-vandals-turf-war/

[vafrow]

10 minutes ago, grumpythepenguin said:

 

The movie theatres in Brampton and the surrounding area have been getting threats around screening South Indian films so there have been challenges trying to expand the market: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-cineplex-south-indian-film-vandals-turf-war/

 

Yes. I was going to add that, but some of the specifics of everything involving that are a bit unknown to me, so I didn't want to make any statements I couldn't back up, but it is likely that's one of the biggest reasons for being underserved.

 

But in general, investment in the region goes to where the wealth is concentrated. Which is why Oakville has a ridiculous amount of screens per capita.

 

And apologies for taking this thread into local Toronto area discussions. I promise I'll stop now (but mods, feel free to delete if you need).

Edited February 29 by vafrow

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]