The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[elhassane31]

Lol at KFP4 waking the heck up.

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, elhassane31 said:

Lol at KFP4 waking the heck up.

The jack black video of him singing hit me baby one more time for the movie has 3 million likes 41 million views on instagram on his instagram account 

 

he single handily carrying the movie promotion 

[leoh]

53 minutes ago, leoh said:

Dune Part Two will lose the #1 spot this weekend according to Variety.

 

The fourth “Kung Fu Panda” movie looks to collect $45 million to $50 million in its opening weekend.
 

Meanwhile, “Dune: Part Two” is projected to add around $40 million.

 

Based on theaters estimates, initial ticket sales should improve upon its immediate predecessors, 2016’s “Kung Fu Panda 3” ($41 million debut) and 2011’s “Kung Fu Panda 2” ($47.6 million).

 

It has outstandingly speed up its sales pace over “Dune Part Two” for the upcoming weekend.

 

“Kung Fu Panda 4” should benefit from the dearth of family films at the box office.

 

 

 

 

 

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-kung-fu-panda-4-opening-weekend-projection-dune-2-1235930925/

 

That Panda 4 video has just hit 40M in few weeks on Instagram.

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, NoobSaibot said:

I think there's been a misunderstanding. I wasn't accusing anybody in this thread of having incorrect information, however in circles outside of BOT, it was believed that tickets went on sale today. I was mostly chiding myself. Apologies for any confusion, as my comment was directed at nobody in particular....here, on these boards.

 

In the future, I will be more mindful of what I say and with more context, as I did not mean to cause a tizzy. It was meant as a passing remark and nothing accusatory.

 

Don't worry about it, all good 

[dallas]

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-2

Tickets Sold: 72 (+18)

Growth: 33%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/36 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.946x) of Migration - $2.92 Million

 

I guess yesterday was an outlier because this is starting to point back towards ~$3M previews. Should land around $35-40M for the weekend, I don't really see where the $45-50M estimate is coming from. It'll be a close battle between this and Dune for who wins this weekend. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 18580/378162 279825.48 2543 shows +3758

Friday - 27674/569560 413519.36 3676 shows +7848

 

Amazing day for Panda. I dont know if @M37 is extrapolating where this is ending up. I want to see another day of growth. But looking at something similar to what most are seeing. Somewhere around 70K finish which should be ~3.75m previews. 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 22161/455754 331982.79 3137 shows +3581

Friday - 35874/792963 532176.58 5336 shows +8200

 

Weird that Tuesday growth was less than yesterday. Friday also went up pitifully(I expected 10K). Let us see where things are tomorrow. Now I am thinking 55K finish which mean be around ~3m previews (it will actually be lower but estimated higher).

 

Edit: Elemental comps put it at ~3.1m. its overall 28% ahead but daily pace is tad under 10% above that and so the comps will go down. 

Edited March 6 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weird that Tuesday growth was less than yesterday. Friday also went up pitifully(I expected 10K)

Monday had some offer I think.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Monday had some offer I think.

Xfinity offer has been around for a while and its for Fandango and so not specific to any TC. As long as your theater sells tickets through Fandango you are good and I think most chains do that these days. 

[misterpepp]

Shrek 2 20th Anniversary opens April 12, I'll look for a ticketing date.

 

Showtimes are appearing with Thursday previews starting at 4pm.

 

EDIT: On sale March 8

Edited March 6 by misterpepp

[Maaatt]

23 hours ago, leoh said:

It seems WB 25% co-finance is related to the expensive distribution costs (which includes marketing). WB does seem to get around 20% from net box office. 
 

What few people seem to member is that Legendary is now a Sony partner, they broke their relationship with Warner in 2022 and signed a deal with Sony.

 

So yeah Duna and monster-verse sequels will be distributed by Sony in the upcoming years, all of them Legendary properties.

(I don’t remember who, but I think it was either @dallas, @Shawn Robbins or @charlie Jatinder who explained some time ago the WB mistakes that led Legendary cut ties with them to sign with Sony)
 

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/legendary-entertainment-sony-deal-warner-bros-1235443325/amp/

 

Sorry didn't see this till now, been super busy the last day. 

 

Yeah I know Legendary is with Sony now, I was actually gonna mention that in my original response but it had already gotten too long so left it out. This isn't the first time they've left WB, they previously had left Warner in 2014 and went to Universal, only to come back to WB in 2019. 

 

Edited March 6 by Maaatt

[Maaatt]

12 hours ago, leoh said:

Legendary is Dune solo owner, if you can’t understand what this means I’m very sorry for you.  

as mentioned, this doesn't have to do with tracking so i don't wanna clog up the board anymore after pointing this out but the trades clearly say Warner Brothers retains distribution rights on the Godzilla/Monsterverse and Dune franchises. Yes, technically Legendary is the owner of the film rights but WB retained distribution rights to those franchises. See article below:

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/legendary-pictures-forges-new-partnership-with-sony-1235223847/

 

Specifically this passage on Legendary's pact with Sony: 

"The pact does not include the Dune or Godzilla franchises, which will continue to be released by Warner Bros., Legendary’s previous partner. Dune: Part Two is due out from Warners on Nov. 3, 2023. There is no formal deal for Sony to co-finance Legendary films, though it’s possible the two could explore that option down the road."

 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, Maaatt said:

 

Sorry didn't see this till now, been super busy the last day. 

 

Yeah I know Legendary is with Sony now, I was actually gonna mention that in my original response but it had already gotten too long so left it out. This isn't the first time they've left WB, they previously had left Warner in 2014 and went to Universal, only to come back to WB in 2019. 

 

When the Sony agreement was announced though, it was made pretty clear that that the Dune and Godzilla/Monsterverse franchises were staying with Warners. That could of been because of whatever contract they originally had with WB basically laid this out, spelling out that Warners retains distribution rights on any franchises that arise from the films made under the agreement or it could of been something negotiated later. During Legendary's time at Universal between 2014 - 2019 WB continued to distribute monsterverse movies. 

 

Forgive me here cause this goes a bit into the weeds.. When they talk about a "co-finance" agreement, that's separate and apart from just a straight distribution agreement. So when it says Warner co-financed Dune at 20% or 25% that means WB funded that amount of the actual production (the making of the movie) and are entitled to that percentage of the profits, if any.  The distribution and marketing component is separate and Warner is entitled to a separate distribution fee thats been reported at 8% of collected box office, WB collects that fee no matter what. Now a lot of times these distribution and co-finance deals go hand and hand, with the distribution deal also stipulating a co-financing arrangement, other times its made on a movie by movie basis, etc. (there's a million ways these contracts can be arranged).  Marketing costs are handled differently in different contracts and without seeing Legendary's contract with WB I have no idea other then whats been reported on in the trades. Just in the last week Deadline seemed to give two different answers for how the Legendary/WB deal works in terms of marketing costs, saying most recently that WB and Legendary split marketing costs at around the same rate they split the production costs (so maybe Legendary covered 75% of marketing costs and WB 25%), whereas earlier they seemed to imply WB handled all marketing costs and would get that "covered" or paid back first from the post-theatrical ancillary revenue stream or back end "waterfall" in studio speak (the implication being WB would keep all ancillary revenue until its made whole on whatever it spent on marketing). These deals though are usually beneficial to the distributor, if a distributor pays for the P&A costs, then they may get to keep all box office collected until they have been paid back for whatever they spent on marketing and then they start collecting a distribution fee on all box office after that.  My entire point being, WB is likely "recouping" any spending it did on P&A before Legendary sees anything and then WB will start collecting its 8% distribution fee.

 

Sorry, that was long and convoluted and at the end of the day we really don't know the fine points of the distribution deal. But these types of distribution deals with one of the Hollywood majors are usually written pretty favorably for the distributor all things considered. 

 

thank you @Maaatt for clarifying the point about the distribution fees. (Edit: you have just deleted the most interesting thing you said lol)

 

Regarding the Legendary deal with Sony, there’s no place where they say Dune and Monster-Verse will carry on with WB. You can take a look at the head of Legendary interview to Variety which I shared before. The only thing he says is that “selected projects” (his words) already in development with Warner Bros will distributed by then. They don’t mention anything about Dune or Monster-verse future sequels that were not in development (when he gave the interview in 2022).

 

Universal situation was completely different, Universal offered a better deal and they accepted it. With Sony was the opposite, after they have sued WB they went after a new Distributor to make a deal. In this case, how could they have convinced Sony to make a deal with them without including their only two major franchises? Sony is the only one among the 5 major studios that doesn’t have interest in products to streaming, since they have no streaming service, and neither want it (they have Crunchyroll but this has nothing to do with American cinema industry).

 

So I got you, but it’s highly unlikely that Sony would have accepted that deal without contractual guarantees over Legendary major franchises. Everyone knew they were suing WB, and I don’t think Sony was like “hey buddy I know you sued WB so let’s make up a meaningless agreement not involving your only two franchises which make real money. I just want to help you to put some pressure on WB” lol

Edited March 6 by leoh

[leoh]

5 hours ago, dallas said:

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-2

Tickets Sold: 72 (+18)

Growth: 33%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/36 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.946x) of Migration - $2.92 Million

 

I guess yesterday was an outlier because this is starting to point back towards ~$3M previews. Should land around $35-40M for the weekend, I don't really see where the $45-50M estimate is coming from. It'll be a close battle between this and Dune for who wins this weekend. 

Variety says those numbers are theaters estimates.

 

Idk but probably they are seeing a big Saturday and Sunday overtaking #1 spot domestically.

 

 

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-kung-fu-panda-4-opening-weekend-projection-dune-2-1235930925/

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-3 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 285

New Sales: 82

Growth: 40%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 16.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 5/2

Late Afternoon: 37/3

Early Evening: 130/6

Late Evening: 113/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 135/8
3D Regular:55/6
Dolby: 95/3

 

Comps

3.167x Wonka for $11.1M

1.638x Aquaman 2 for $7.4M

0.499x The Marvels for $3.3M

 

40% growth day when it's already performing well.

 

I don't know what to make of this, but sales are heavily concentrated to one particular location that has about 70% of sales, and it's not the biggest theatre in the area. It's actually only a 6 screen, but it has a lot of other entertainment aspects. It was only built last year, so it draws an outsized crowd, but I haven't really seen many cases like this.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-2 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 332

New Sales: 47

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 19.5

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 11/2

Late Afternoon: 45/3

Early Evening: 158/6

Late Evening: 118/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 153/8
3D Regular:61/6
Dolby: 118/3

 

Comps

2.790x Wonka for $9.8M

1.425x Aquaman 2 for $6.4M

0.522x The Marvels for $3.4M

 

Okay day. I think yesterdays 40% jump was a bit of an outlier. Still, it's in a strong spot heading into the last day.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D5, T-17, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 33

New Sales: 4

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 25/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 24/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

D4 Comps

0.250x HG:BoSS for $1.4M

0.559x Madame Web for $3.4M 

0.478x Aquaman 2 for $2.2M

 

T-17 Comps

0.094x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.109x The Marvels for $0.7M

3.667x Wonka for $12.8M

 

I really don't have good comps. I can only switch the D5 comps to T minus by the weekend or so, so I threw the only other options I had that don't help matters much.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D6, T-16, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 35

New Sales: 2

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 27/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 26/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

D4 Comps

0.236x HG:BoSS for $1.4M

0.547x Madame Web for $3.3M 

0.432x Aquaman 2 for $1.9M

 

T-17 Comps

0.094x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.111x The Marvels for $0.7M

3.182x Wonka for $11.1M

 

We're in a really slow stretch here. Hoping it picks up more next week.

[M37]

By the numbers, KFP4 looks to be on track for a ~$3.5M Thur (agree with Keyser’s 55K MTC1 final projection), ~$15M Fri (65-70K presales by Thur) and then probably pushing to $50M for OW

 

But my gut is telling me that’s a touch too high, and (somehow) winds up in the $40s

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-3]

735/14956 (4.91% sold) [+143 tickets] [129 showtimes]

 

1.38418x Elemental at T-3               [3.32m]
----

0.62447x GBA at T-3                       [3.18m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.45092x Sonic 2 at T-3                  [2.82m] 
0.38583x Minons 2 at T-3               [4.15m]
1.05301x Shazam 2 at T-3               [3.58m]
0.79978x Haunted Mansion at T-3 [2.48m]

0.85069x Wonka at T-3                   [2.98m] 
 

===

 

Like all other markets, def seeing growth.  Prob gonna come down to just what the adult/teen ticket price to kids ratio is for this flick.  I reckon it's gonna have at least somewhat of a stronger non-kids price ticket skew than Elemental simply for nostalgia.  But I'm leery of putting too much weight on that quite yet. 

 

Out of all the comps, maybe Shazam 2?!?  Dunno.  Gut feeling maybe? Should be higher than Elemental at any rate; just not sure how much higher.

 

Still, going up, as I said.  Just have to see how high.

 

(no, the comps aren't the best)

((that's why it's called a "Quick and Dirty" 👍))

 

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-2]

899/17963 (5.00% sold) [+164 tickets] [166 showtimes]

 

1.33581x Elemental at T-2                [3.21m]

----

0.59536x GBA at T-2                        [3.03m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.87879x Wonka at T-7                    [3.08m]
0.42891x  Sonic 2 at T-2                  [2.68m]
0.32882x Minons 2 at T-2                [3.53m]
1.11125x   Shazam 2 at T-2               [3.78m]
0.82251x Haunted Mansion at T-2  [2.55m]

 

===

 

Kinda stalled out today, locally.  Increased slightly on some comps, dropped slightly on others.  Don't know if it was a blip, lack of reviews being out, or just-one-of-those-things.  Not nearly as high on 3.5m as I was 24 hours ago.

 

Mind, Q&Ds are always a little squirrely, and I make absolutely no guarantees about them, especially 48 hours out, but... Yeah.  See what T-1 brings before I shore up any more thoughts.

[leoh]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

By the numbers, KFP4 looks to be on track for a ~$3.5M Thur (agree with Keyser’s 55K MTC1 final projection), ~$15M Fri (65-70K presales by Thur) and then probably pushing to $50M for OW

 

But my gut is telling me that’s a touch too high, and (somehow) winds up in the $40s

Variety is projecting it to make between 45M and 50M

 

3.5M on preview may prevent Panda from get at 50s.

 

But 45M+ looks reasonable if it in fact has great walk ups

[M37]

4 minutes ago, leoh said:

Variety is projecting it to make between 45M and 50M

 

3.5M on preview may prevent Panda from get at 50s.

 

But 45M+ looks reasonable if it in fact has great walk ups

Variety doesn’t “make projections”, they (and Deadline and THR) only report what industry sources and/or tracking has. 
 

That range is in play, and the data we have justifies it, but … I dunno; $45 more likely than $50 to me 

[leoh]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Variety doesn’t “make projections”, they (and Deadline and THR) only report what industry sources and/or tracking has. 
 

That range is in play, and the data we have justifies it, but … I dunno; $45 more likely than $50 to me 

 

if it in fact gets 45M to 50M then the number one spot at the domestic box office is guaranteed.
 

Dune certainly will drop less than 60%, so this may be an even better weekend for theaters. Hope movies keep over performing theaters are really needing this after those  too week Jan/Feb