The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[cooldude97]

23 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:

Heh, it's more up in the air than it used to be.

 

It feels like almost everything back in 2017-2019 was a guaranteed success.

personally didn't care for those years since outside a handful of movies most things were pretty easily predicted IMO. but last year with Barbenheimer and Mario beating every expectation, now that was fun

[MightyDargon]

I'm very skeptical Kung Fu Panda 4 will go over 56 mil unless the opening day tracking here is VERY inaccurate.

[el sid]

Will report precise numbers later but for the moment: It seems that I completely underestimated Cabrini. Today I looked at its Friday presales and they're indeed very good, ca. 4x better than those for Thursday. Plus it gets showtimes in every theater.

[leoh]

25 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

I'm very skeptical Kung Fu Panda 4 will go over 56 mil unless the opening day tracking here is VERY inaccurate.

it’s not about opening day, it’s about how go it is doing for the weekend plus family walk ups speciation. 
 

Here in the NY pre sales had an amazing boost over the past couple of days. On Saturday it’ll make over 20M. 
 

That said, I also think 56M is a bit of a stretch. Yet around 50M is a real possibility.

[kayumanggi]

 

[ChipDerby]

19 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

You remember when those kind of numbers were quite common and not the rare exception?

 

I do too ...

 

...

 

They were not quite common, actually. Especially in March.

[Minnale101]

March could potentially have 5 hits with dune 2, kfp4, Cabrini, ghostbusters and Godzilla vs kong 

 

will be fun to follow 

[JonathanMB]

14 minutes ago, el sid said:

Will report precise numbers later but for the moment: It seems that I completely underestimated Cabrini. Today I looked at its Friday presales and they're indeed very good, ca. 4x better than those for Thursday. Plus it gets showtimes in every theater.

 

The marketing has been selling the "OPENS ON INTERNATIONAL WOMEN'S DAY" angle pretty hard, so it makes sense. And yeah i'm seeing the same thing in my area; OK sales today, and pretty crazy sales for showtimes that have been on sale for the last month (a few theaters have added an extra screen to balance out demand). Kinda wonder if it has a shot at a double-digits opening...

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/6/2024 at 9:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-1	Jax	5	11	5	109	958	11.38%
		Phx	6	16	6	63	1,335	4.72%
		Ral	7	15	1	52	1,560	3.33%
	Total		18	42	12	224	3,853	5.81%
Imaginary	T-1	Jax	5	15	11	40	1,371	2.92%
		Phx	6	12	3	32	1,461	2.19%
		Ral	7	15	7	40	1,219	3.28%
	Total		18	42	21	112	4,051	2.76%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-1	Jax	5	58	42	189	5,947	3.18%
		Phx	6	66	52	283	9,552	2.96%
		Ral	8	67	40	254	7,425	3.42%
	Total		19	191	134	726	22,924	3.17%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-1 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .653x (2.03m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .386x (2.41m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .406x (2.28m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .528x (2.9m)

 - Elemental - 1.513x (3.63m)

 - Super Pets - 2.45x (5.4m)

 - Minions 2 - .422x (4.5m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.15x (5.43m)

 - Spider-verse 2 - .144x (2.51m)

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Kung Fu Panda 4	78.82%	28.82%	6.92%	22.64%
Haunted Mansion Total	71.45%	32.41%	23.74%	21.16%
Sonic 2 (Total)	84.51%	28.82%	22.73%	29.61%
Turtles Total	45.92%	34.64%	25.25%	14.34%
Lightyear Total	-	-	-	30.95%
Elemental	86.77%	-	-	31.15%
Super Pets	124.24%	43.18%	42.67%	39.62%
Minions 2	180.29%	27.52%	-	48.11%
Boss Baby 2	139.73%	54.79%	87.88%	20.69%

 

Behind Sonic yesterday and seems to be lagging a bit.  Feeling more comfortable in the 3m range as we get closer and could even fail to reach that.

 

Growth model forecast - 3.53m (still not seeing this in the numbers)

 

Imaginary T-1 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .204x (1.02m)

 - Escape Room 2 - .747x (896k)

 - Invitation - 1.07x (827k)

 - Old - .554x (832k)

 - Boogeyman - 1x (1m)

 

Another bad day...

 

Growth model forecast - 881k

 

Cabrini T-1 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .08x (415k)

 - Left Behind - .541x (330k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .499x (385k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .131x (433k)

 

Forecast - 336k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-0	Jax	5	11	10	119	958	12.42%
		Phx	7	17	15	78	1,367	5.71%
		Ral	7	15	3	55	1,560	3.53%
	Total		19	43	28	252	3,885	6.49%
Imaginary	T-0	Jax	5	15	7	47	1,371	3.43%
		Phx	7	13	18	50	1,507	3.32%
		Ral	8	16	26	66	1,282	5.15%
	Total		20	44	51	163	4,160	3.92%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-0	Jax	5	64	126	315	6,756	4.66%
		Phx	7	70	111	394	9,797	4.02%
		Ral	8	67	118	372	7,425	5.01%
	Total		20	201	355	1,081	23,978	4.51%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-0 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .793x (2.46m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .484x (3.02m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .494x (2.77m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .564x (3.1m)

 - Elemental - 1.613x (3.87m)

 - Super Pets - 2.36x (5.18m)

 - Minions 2 - .364x (3.91m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.17x (5.47m)

 - Spider-verse 2 - .149x (2.59m)

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Kung Fu Panda 4	120.16%	36.25%	12.78%	48.90%
Haunted Mansion Total	79.47%	33.03%	26.33%	22.77%
Sonic 2 (Total)	87.82%	33.19%	21.13%	18.76%
Turtles Total	46.26%	38.97%	29.79%	22.51%
Lightyear Total	131.36%	33.05%	-	39.49%
Elemental	130.24%	25.09%	-	39.58%
Super Pets	163.79%	41.38%	46.08%	55.07%
Minions 2	265.23%	-	-	72.75%
Boss Baby 2	159.00%	61.00%	64.10%	48.00%

 

Much better day for the panda.  I'm feeling more confident in it breaking 3m now, especially if this trend continues throughout the day.

 

Size adjusted comp* - 3.67m

*I have been mislabeling this as growth model forecast

Growth model forecast - 3.38m

 

I've also been loosely following true preview comps for Panda.

 - Haunted Mansion - 1.08x (3.13m)

 - Sonic 2 - .617x (3.07m)

 - Lightyear - .627x (3.07m)

 - Elemental - 1.61x (3.87m)

 - Super Pets - 2.36x (5.18m)

 - Minions 2 - .364x (3.91m)

 

Growth model forecast - 3.52m

 

Imaginary T-0 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .16x (798k)

 - Escape Room 2 - .66x (792k)

 - Invitation - .872x (676k)

 - Old - .497x (745k)

 - Boogeyman - .815x (815k)

 - Prey for the Devil - 1.173x (774k)

 

Size adjusted comp*- 754k

*I have been mislabeling this as growth model forecast

Growth model forecast - 691k

 

Cabrini T-0 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .076x (395k)

 - Left Behind - .555x (339k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .508x (392k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .141x (465k)

 

Size adjusted comp* - 354k

*I have been mislabeling this as growth model forecast

Growth model forecast - 357k

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Kung Fu Panda 4	3D	2	3	3	126	2.38%
		Standard	58	599	599	7,684	7.80%
	Total		60	602	602	7,810	7.71%

 

T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .298x (1.48m)

 - Minions - .19x (2.05m)

 - Lightyear - .425x (2.08m)

 - Super Pets - 1.16x (2.55m)

 - The Bad Guys - 3.99x (4.58m)

 - Paws of Fury - 6.84x (3.45m)

 

Not really standing out here either.  Surprised that most of their locations are only running one screen today.  

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Fascinating forecasting/tracking weekend when the trades (and referenced rival distributors) are the ones beating the High OW drums for KFP4. The Wrap coming out with "at least $56 million" OW for KP4 and even daring to invoke the $60 million possibility is wild compared to the more cautious tracking-based forecast consensuses developing on here.

 

“Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently tracking to take the No.1 spot with an opening weekend of at least $56 million, with rival distributors saying the film has a chance to top $60 million. 

Article can be read without a paywall at https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/last-box-office-variety-promising-173000900.html

 

$3.2 M previews - $3.5 M previews would require IMs

       - between 16 and 17.5 to get to $56 M, and

       - between 17.1 and 18.75 to get to $60 M.

That's a lot of Skadoosh.

I was totally expecting a huge breakout for KFP4 prior to presales. Hopefully this is a sign things are picking up

 

I would caution against using previews to extrapolate full OW. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 57379/753179 1120101.37 4399 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 79744/787133 1449116.54 4595 shows

 

Friday is up like 110% from Panda while saturday is around 150% higher than Panda. Dont know how Panda can beat Dune this weekend. It should be interesting. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 73308/755501 1405317.88 4420 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 100087/788924 1787976.65 4607 shows

 

Its maintaining 80/90% of daily pace of last week. Similar ratio will takeit 195K for Friday for 14m ish 2nd friday, 22m saturday and 15m Sunday for 51m 2nd weekend 🙂

 

 

[keysersoze123]

For Panda to hit 50m OW, it needs to basically double the walkups that Trolls 3 had. That did slightly over 65K walkups at MTC1. So 130K walkups. I think that would be tough to do in March. Let us see how things go tomorrow before we assume anything. 

[keysersoze123]

FYI this came up in Canada BO thread but this is the most shocking thing I have learned about Box office in ages. 

 

  

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

CAD but NA BO is without conversion.

 

NA USD = US USD + CA CAD

 

USD 100 = USD 90 + CAD 10

 

Basically studios are making CAD = USD for Canada BO !!!

Edited March 7 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 73308/755501 1405317.88 4420 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 100087/788924 1787976.65 4607 shows

SAT is 60% of 1st SAT at similar time. Noice. 

Pace is par 1st SAT. Insane.

[keysersoze123]

If only studios took the same formula for OS BO. Like 1 yen = 1 USD or 1 IDR = 1 USD or 1 Zimbabwe monopoly money = 1 USD. We will not have any more BO flops. 

 

Edited March 7 by keysersoze123

[Grand Cine]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 73308/755501 1405317.88 4420 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 100087/788924 1787976.65 4607 shows

 

Its maintaining 80/90% of daily pace of last week. Similar ratio will takeit 195K for Friday for 14m ish 2nd friday, 22m saturday and 15m Sunday for 51m 2nd weekend 🙂

 

 

Oh yeah my prediction is happen

[charlie Jatinder]

@keysersoze123 Troll 3 FRI MTC 1 was just 18.5%. Never really bothered about looking chain wise share for small animation films but make sense they will underindex heavily in MTC1. Though I guess KFP may be a bit better than Trolls 3.

 

For everyone, Trolls 3 MTC1 comps for KFP 4  are $3.75M THU & $15.5M FRI. 

 

If they end up true, it could be

3.75
15.5
23
16 // 58

Edited March 7 by charlie Jatinder

[TheFlatLannister]

11 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Oh yeah my prediction is happen

what was the prediction?

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@keysersoze123 Troll 3 FRI MTC 1 was just 18.5%. Never really bothered about looking chain wise share for small animation films but make sense they will underindex heavily in MTC1. Though I guess KFP may be a bit better than Trolls 3.

 

For everyone, Trolls 3 MTC1 comps for KFP 4  are $3.75M THU & $15.5M FRI. 

 

If they end up true, it could be

3.75
15.5
23
16 // 58

 

And now we know where every trackers high numbers are coming from...