The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2 Previews Final - 124869/747300 1752955.74 6029 shows 

 

Here as well the walkups were not that good. 

 Still Not that shocking. School night and NFL kickoff game.

[vafrow]

32 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It would be far better than Mutant Mayhem, which Paramount does seem to be satisfied with as an IP revival.

 

There has been some concern that TFOne and Wild Robot would be eating into each other's audiences opening right next to each other, tracking right now indicates that might be a misplaced fear.

 

I find it so odd that we've gone through such long stretches without kids films outside the peak periods (summer, Christmas holiday stretch), and we're getting these two films back to back and then a Lego movie (albeit a less traditional kids film) a couple of weeks later. And Beetlejuice is pretty kid friendly as well.

[AniNate]

16 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Maybe some people here are overstimating the fact the movie is "for families". I don't know what the rating is but It's Tim Burton, you can expect scary - kinda disturbing scenes even in a more light comedy context. 

 

I think Kids and young people could be a target but not families with children like It's an animated movie.

 

There isn't a PG rated movie in more than 2000 theaters this weekend. They are definitely banking on a big family draw here.

 

It's been awhile since we've had a huge lite horror movie I guess, but it has been a pretty lucrative niche for a long time. Maintaining a comic tone and having a happy ending goes a long way towards making parents ok with it. 

 

 

Edited September 6 by AniNate

[charlie Jatinder]

3.1 + 9.8

[excel1]

I remain astonished this film isn't opening to $25-30m. Who was asking for this movie?

[Eric the Marxist]

7 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I remain astonished this film isn't opening to $25-30m. Who was asking for this movie?

Hot Topic shareholders.

[AnthonyJPHer]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

3.1 + 9.8

So not pure Thursday 10m.

 

I think Friday will be a lot stronger. And so should Saturday. 31m for Friday, possibly an increase on Saturday? 

[TheFlatLannister]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

3.1 + 9.8

$12.9M previews 

 

dammit was off by $0.1M 

[CheeseWizard]

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

It'll likely be super frontloaded due to its niche audience. Mainstream appeal is going to be nonexistent.

That and Coppola has a shitload of ops cus of his onset behaviour and his old relations to Victor Salva. They’re trying to make sure all press it gets is bad press.

 

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

It would be far better than Mutant Mayhem, which Paramount does seem to be satisfied with as an IP revival.

 

There has been some concern that TFOne and Wild Robot would be eating into each other's audiences opening right next to each other, tracking right now indicates that might be a misplaced fear.

Tbh I get the idea where they’d eat into each other, but I sort of assumed they’d hit different demographics due to one being more of a comedy, and the other being more action oriented. Earlier on I also would’ve sworn TFOne was gonna be PG12 from what I heard about it but apparently puss in boots 2 got away with John Maulaney saying “crap” so idk
 

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

That's a discussion for the film's thread. We just track the numbers here.

 

Although, hitting $40M would make this the 9th biggest September opening weekend, and make this month the only time two September films opened to above $40M. It's hard to be too negative with that result.

Crap, sorry. Still kind of new ot message boards stuff overall. I’ll try to not post off-topic next time

[vafrow]

On 9/5/2024 at 6:08 AM, vafrow said:

 

Friday sales look strong, so I'm guessing that it still performs well over the weekend, but if just looking through my local lens, Thursday previews will struggle to hit double digits on true Thursday.

 

 The wonky Canadian market can sometimes come through with some useful insights.

[el sid]

I'm sorry, yesterday I said "soon" new numbers for BJBJ but I couldn't finish my counting before ~9pm in Germany, partly because of error reports in some AMCs (which often happens with much traffic). 

 

BJBJ, counted yesterday for Friday (= today), had 3.528 sold tickets. 

Up very nice 68.5% since Monday. I was a bit surprised that it had such a good jump in my theaters after I read some reports here that its sales slowed down. 

Best presales in the AMC in LA (1.552) and again very similar sales in my other three bigger AMCs (in NY it had 498 sold tickets, 459 in Miami, 507 in San Francisco). Good numbers also in three smaller AMCs. 

 

Comps: Kung Fu Panda 4 (15.6M true Friday) had, also counted on Thursday for Friday, 1.185 sold tickets = 46.5M.

And JWD (41.55M true Friday) had counted on Thursday for Friday 5.623 = 26.05M. 

 

(Maleficent 2 (10.2M true Friday) had in the same AMCs in NY and Miami 547 tickets (combined). BJBJ had in these two theaters 957 sold tickets = 17.85M.

Too bad that I don't have the final presales number for It 2 (26.5M true Friday). It had one day earlier, on Wednesday for Friday, 3.272 sold tickets (up 36% since Monday which means BJBJ probably had the better jumps in the last week). So I guess that It 2 had around 4k on Thursday = ~23.2M for BJBJ. But that's just a guess.)

 

Rough average from all four films: 28.4M true Friday for Beetlejuice.

Average from the two films (KFP 4 & JWD) which I counted also and complete on Thursday for Friday: 36.275M.

 

No idea how good its walk-ups will be but good numbers anyway. As mentioned, I expected a way more muted finish.

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[filmpalace]

With the aggressive marketing, positive early reactions and the embargo lifting on Tuesday, I honestly feel like Speak No Evil might surprise next weekend. I know there's not much presale data on here for it yet, but based on buzz I feel like it could open similarly to The Black Phone.

 

New here btw (👋). I've read posts on here for quite a long time and I felt like I'd finally create an account. Really appreciate all the hard work the trackers on here do!

[charlie Jatinder]

Absolute trash walkups. From pre-sales could have done $35M+ FRI but it will miss $30M.

[Flopped]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Absolute trash walkups. From pre-sales could have done $35M+ FRI but it will miss $30M.

 

Uggggh how disappointing. 

[WorkingonaName]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Absolute trash walkups. From pre-sales could have done $35M+ FRI but it will miss $30M.

Keaton walkups have failed us again. 

[CheeseWizard]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Absolute trash walkups. From pre-sales could have done $35M+ FRI but it will miss $30M.

The curse of the Flash continues…

 

Kinda hope the 97m domestic weekend number I plucked out of nowhere is right. Be funny af

[vafrow]

On 9/6/2024 at 6:27 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-14, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 6

Growth: 120%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 34

New sales since T-20: 26

Growth: 325%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 5/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 5/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.229x KFP4 for $1.1M

0.314x IO2 for $4.1M

0.121x DM4 for $3.3M

2.750x Garfield for $5.3M

 

Average: $3.4M

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

3.778x Garfield for $2.2M

 

It's doing okay on sales, but it's fantastic on the Sunday EA shows. There's one big group sale that makes up a big amount.

 

Otherwise, nothing too fascinating about the totals. It's in line with expectations.

 

Transformers One, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 11

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 36

New sales: 2

Growth: 6%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 5/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 5/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.204x KFP4 for $1.0M

0.314x IO2 for $4.1M

0.110x DM4 for $3.0M

2.750x Garfield for $5.3M

 

Average: $3.3M

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

3.600x Garfield for $2.1M

 

Staying pretty flat.

[vafrow]

On 9/6/2024 at 4:07 AM, vafrow said:

The Wild Robot, D1, T-21, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 0.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

PSales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/5

Early Evening: 0/7

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  0/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 0/2

Dolby 3D: 2/8

IMAX: 0/4

 

Comps 

0.500x KFP4 for $2.4M

1.000x IO2 for $13.0M

0.667x TFOne for???

Garfield at zero sales unable to calculate 

Average: $7.7M

 

Standard caveat that low numbers early on are subject to wild variances.

 

Most interesting element is format distribution. This has a lot of premium screens and 3D to drive ticket prices. Only a single regular non 3D showing, and it's a matinee. But, they're not charging their premium that they usually do for bigger films on opening weekend. 

 

3D is literally the only option at my local. If I end up seeing this with my kids, I'm waiting until more showtimes are added for a non 3D showing.

 

The Wild Robot, D2, T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 0.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

PSales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/5

Early Evening: 0/7

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  0/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 0/2

Dolby 3D: 2/8

IMAX: 0/4

 

Comps 

0.167x KFP4 for $0.8M

1.000x IO2 for $13.0M

0.400x TFOne for???

Garfield at zero sales unable to calculate 

Average: $6.9M

 

No movement on day 2. I'll probably switch to T minus comps tomorrow, which will bring the numbers down.