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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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On 10/8/2023 at 8:43 PM, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-15 21 82 70 1,350 15,266 8.84% 5.47%
T-14 21 82 81 1,431 15,266 9.37% 6.00%
T-13 21 82 114 1,545 15,266 10.12% 7.97%
T-12 21 82 69 1,614 15,266 10.57% 4.47%
T-11 21 82 60 1,674 15,266 10.97% 3.72%
 
MTC1 8 32 +22 731 5,897 12.40% 3.10%
MTC2 4 18 +12 316 3,132 10.09% 3.95%
MTC3 3 18 +11 444 3,798 11.69% 2.54%
Other 6 14 +15 183 2,439 7.50% 8.93%
 
Comps
Oppenheimer 1.501x = $15.76m
Barbie 0.809x = $17.95m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.322x = $20.43m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.682x = $12.11m
Sound of Freedom 1.280x = $6.66m

 

Killers of the Flower Moon OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-14 21 82 81 1,431 15,266 9.37% 6.00%
T-13 21 82 114 1,545 15,266 10.12% 7.97%
T-12 21 82 69 1,614 15,266 10.57% 4.47%
T-11 21 82 60 1,674 15,266 10.97% 3.72%
T-10 21 82 137 1,811 15,266 11.86% 8.18%
 
MTC1 8 32 +61 792 5,897 13.43% 8.34%
MTC2 4 18 +29 345 3,132 11.02% 9.18%
MTC3 3 18 +26 470 3,798 12.37% 5.86%
Other 6 14 +21 204 2,439 8.36% 11.48%
 
Comps
Oppenheimer 1.518x = $15.94m
Barbie 0.793x = $17.60m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 2.411x = $21.22m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.757x = $18.44m
Sound of Freedom 1.306x = $6.79m

 

Great day. Unless I have time I will probably swap this one out for the Marvels from tomorrow and bring back in once Taylor is out.

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On 10/8/2023 at 8:45 PM, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-22 16 67 103 577 11,157 5.17% 21.73%
T-21 16 67 73 650 11,157 5.83% 12.65%
T-20 16 72 50 700 11,880 5.89% 7.69%
T-19 19 83 67 767 13,196 5.81% 9.57%
T-18 19 83 34 801 13,196 6.07% 4.43%
 
MTC1 7 21 +25 372 2,213 16.81% 7.20%
MTC2 4 29 +2 157 4,653 3.37% 1.29%
MTC3 3 20 +2 208 4,277 4.86% 0.97%
Other 5 13 +5 64 2,053 3.12% 8.47%
 
Comps
Asteroid City 13.131x = $14.44m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.679x = $14.78m
Barbie 0.619x = $13.74m
Haunted Mansion 7.853x = $24.34m
Oppenheimer 1.055x = $11.08m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.028x = $7.40m
Killers of the Flower Moon 0.764x    

 

Five Nights at Freddy's OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-21 16 67 73 650 11,157 5.83% 12.65%
T-20 16 72 50 700 11,880 5.89% 7.69%
T-19 19 83 67 767 13,196 5.81% 9.57%
T-18 19 83 34 801 13,196 6.07% 4.43%
T-17 19 83 43 844 13,196 6.40% 5.37%
 
MTC1 7 21 +15 387 2,213 17.49% 4.03%
MTC2 4 29 +6 163 4,653 3.50% 3.82%
MTC3 3 20 +12 220 4,277 5.14% 5.77%
Other 5 13 +10 74 2,053 3.60% 15.63%
 
Comps
Asteroid City 13.188x = $14.51m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.648x = $14.51m
Barbie 0.630x = $13.98m
Haunted Mansion 8.525x = $26.43m
Oppenheimer 1.085x = $11.39m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.047x = $7.54m
Killers of the Flower Moon 0.755x    

 

I know the Haunted Mansion comp looks a little out there but it should start coming back down to earth tomorrow.

 

Think this is the last day before the Barbenheimer effect so I expect those should drop in the coming days too.

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On 10/8/2023 at 3:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2134 2657 80.32%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2071 2741 75.56%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 3 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
10909 89 22056 49.46% 13 146

 

1.140 Doctor Strange MoM T-5 41.03M
0.715 No Way Home T-5 35.73M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 2143 2657 80.65%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 2155 2741 78.62%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
11077 168 22056 50.22% 13 146

 

1.658 Thor L&T T-4 48.07M
1.109 Doctor Strange MoM T-4 39.91M
0.707 No Way Home T-4 35.33M

 

Highlands Ranch suddenly has 11 more sellouts, which I don't think is actually the case. They were all pretty close to selling out, but it would be a relatively huge jump if it actually happened. The previous 3 days, Highlands had sold 6 tickets, but now it apparently sold 84 in one day. I'm just gonna leave it, but don't be surprised if it drops tomorrow

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On 10/8/2023 at 3:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

T-5 Friday 110 Showings 11270 +338 17054 ATP: 22.30
0.536 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-5 19.30M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-5 28.62M
0.411 NWH Thurs T-5 20.57M

 

T-6 Saturday 200 Showings 15287 +600 29289 ATP: 22.04
0.787 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-6 43.07M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-6 64.81M
0.598 NWH Fri T-6 43.02M

 

T-7 Sunday 174 Showings 12425 +478 25382 ATP: 21.93
0.607 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-7 35.10M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-7 54.24M
0.483 NWH Sat T-7 35.71M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-4 Friday 129 Showings 11397 +127 18729 ATP: 22.29
0.673 Thor L&T Thurs T-4 19.53M
  Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-4 29.04M
0.520 Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-4 18.72M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-4 27.75M
0.408 NWH Thurs T-4 20.42M

 

T-5 Saturday 240 Showings 15447 +160 33356 ATP: 22.03
1.072 Thor L&T Fri T-5 43.46M
  Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-5 65.05M
0.754 Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-5 41.24M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-5 62.01M
0.589 NWH Fri T-5 42.38M

 

T-6 Sunday 213 Showings 12573 +148 29416 ATP: 21.93
0.915 Thor L&T Sat T-6 38.55M
  Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-6 59.04M
0.575 Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-6 33.23M
  Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-6 51.36M
0.471 NWH Sat T-6 34.80M
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On 10/8/2023 at 3:40 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-5 Friday 134 Showings 10754 +431 20504

 

T-6 Saturday 241 Showings 7838 +566 37836

 

T-7 Sunday 230 Showings 4837 +344 36168

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-4 Friday 135 Showings 10744 -10 20445

 

T-5 Saturday 244 Showings 8125 +287 38244

 

T-6 Sunday 232 Showings 5013 +176 36353

 

Friday dropped, very likely just a couple showings not working. Barbie comps coming tomorrow

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On 10/8/2023 at 3:42 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 149 1104 13.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 84 279 30.11%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 3 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
898 122 10401 8.94% 13 64

 

1.276 The Flash T-18 12.37M

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 154 1104 13.95%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 93 279 33.33%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
862 N/A 10401 8.89% 13 64

 

1.177 The Flash T-17 11.41M
0.624 AtSV T-17 10.82M
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2 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:


45-50K is my estimate 

Well. I am going to for for Zero as I am not able to pull data any more.:sparta:I have pinged @ZackM to take a look but have not seen him around for a while. 

 

At least we will still have data from so many regional trackers like @Porthos, @Inceptionzq, @Hilts,  @TheFlatLannister, @vafrow and many others. Sacramento has been on the point for Marvel movies and so I am going to look at his data for where its headed. 

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On 10/8/2023 at 3:44 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse [+3 days of sales]

T-18 Thursday 93 Showings 3143 +464 11730 ATP: 16.13
1.618 The Flash T-18 15.69M

 

T-19 Friday 106 Showings 2549 +527 13099 ATP: 14.97
2.157 The Flash T-19 31.92M

 

T-20 Saturday 101 Showings 1560 +390 11605 ATP: 14.76
1.519 The Flash T-20 23.85M

 

T-21 Sunday 92 Showings 692 +278 10914 ATP: 13.56
1.648 The Flash T-21 25.54M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-17 Thursday 94 Showings 3233 +90 11890 ATP: 16.08
1.617 The Flash T-17 15.68M
0.841 AtSV T-17 14.59M

 

T-18 Friday 110 Showings 2695 +146 13757 ATP: 15.00
2.202 The Flash T-18 32.59M
0.891 AtSV T-18 30.75M

 

T-19 Saturday 105 Showings 1701 +141 12252 ATP: 14.66
1.535 The Flash T-19 24.10M
0.532 AtSV T-19 19.88M

 

T-20 Sunday 94 Showings 743 +51 11237 ATP: 13.67
1.673 The Flash T-20 25.94M
0.453 AtSV T-20 14.16M
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On 10/8/2023 at 3:47 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment [+3 days of sales]

T-18 Thursday 86 Showings 1069 +241 11126
1.253 The Flash T-18 12.16M

 

T-19 Friday 126 Showings 2276 +614 15794
5.173 The Flash T-19 76.56M

 

T-20 Saturday 124 Showings 541 +185 15232
1.685 The Flash T-20 26.46M

 

T-21 Sunday 114 Showings 172 +50 13992
1.470 The Flash T-21 22.79M

 

No idea why Friday is so strong...

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-17 Thursday 86 Showings 1155 +86 11127
1.307 The Flash T-17 12.67M
1.138 AtSV T-17 19.74M

 

T-18 Friday 126 Showings 2448 +172 15809
5.322 The Flash T-18 78.76
2.925 AtSV T-18 100.90M

 

T-19 Saturday 128 Showings 636 +95 16049
1.921 The Flash T-19 30.17M
1.719 AtSV T-19 64.29M

 

T-20 Sunday 118 Showings 198 +26 14809
1.664 The Flash T-20 25.79M
1.186 AtSV T-20 37.05M
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15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Well. I am going to for for Zero as I am not able to pull data any more.:sparta:I have pinged @ZackM to take a look but have not seen him around for a while. 

 

At least we will still have data from so many regional trackers like @Porthos, @Inceptionzq, @Hilts,  @TheFlatLannister, @vafrow and many others. Sacramento has been on the point for Marvel movies and so I am going to look at his data for where its headed. 

 

I'm unfortunately out of the game, due to changes in the Cineplex app where I can't see total tickets sold without manual counting.

 

And in the timeframe from the last Marvel movie, where I only formally tracked my individual theatre for day of sales and walk ups, I expanded to tracking formally for my theatre, to expanding to the entire southern region, and now being sidelined until I can think of another way to do it that works with my schedule and lifestyle.

 

It's a shame, as I would have loved to properly track a Marvel film.

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

162

2134

30059

7.1%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

112

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-19

 

(1.096x) of Flash~$10.63M THUR Previews

(0.759x) of ATSV ~$13.18M THUR Previews

(1.553x) of Fast X~$11.65M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.82M

 

For a sunday, this was an excellent day. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

167

2193

31126

7.0%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

59

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-18

 

(1.094x) of Flash~$10.61M THUR Previews

(0.773x) of ATSV ~$13.42M THUR Previews

(1.587x) of Fast X~$11.90M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.98M

Edited by TheFlatLannister
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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

145

523

24356

2.1%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-12

 

(0.339x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.56M THUR Previews

(0.824x) of Blue Beetle ~$2.72M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.14M 

 

On the decline 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

145

538

24356

2.2%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-11

 

(0.334x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.51M THUR Previews

(0.475x) of Mi7 ~$3.33M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.42M 

 

Yeah, pace is pretty weak

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22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-5

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

226

12024

43831

27.4%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

82

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS 

T-5

 

(1.639x) of GOTG3~$28.68M FRIDAY for TET

(2.444x) of ATSV~$42.40M FRIDAY for TET

(3.312x) of TLM~$34.09M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.929x) of Barbie~$40.68M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $36.46M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $51.04M

 

Tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath against comps as the heavy hitters really started to accelerate at T-4

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-4

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

226

12079

43831

27.6%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

21

 

COMPS 

T-4

 

(1.583x) of GOTG3~$27.70M FRIDAY for TET

(2.177x) of ATSV~$37.77M FRIDAY for TET

(3.158x) of TLM~$32.53M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.795x) of Barbie~$37.86M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $33.97M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $47.56M

 

Quote

Tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath against comps as the heavy hitters really started to accelerate at T-4

 

And so it begins....

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9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

145

538

24356

2.2%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-11

 

(0.334x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.51M THUR Previews

(0.475x) of Mi7 ~$3.33M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.42M 

 

Yeah, pace is pretty weak

What do you think that means? A lot of these numbers are given with little commentary, but for the novices here what does this seem to portend for previews and that first weekend? This is a really long movie for adults and I’m not convinced it’s going to do most of its business on Thursday. The comps seem pretty steady?

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On 10/6/2023 at 5:31 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-7):

Day: T-7 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 20 theaters 130 679 13330 21102 63.17

 

This is over 6 days, over 100 new seats sold a day is an improvement over the past few weeks.

 

Comps (last day I tracked each, unadjusted):

1.49x Barbie w/ EA at T-1: $33.25 Million

2.74x Oppenheimer at T-1: $28.75 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (T-4):

Day: T-4 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 20 theaters 137 363 13693 21848 62.67

 

Switching to T-4 comps and gonna keep doing so for these last few days, for growth rate comparisons. Some of these are going to be laughable but this whole release has turned my whole comp system wack. These will go down tremendously as the week goes on.

 

Comps, no adjustments (in parentheses, the number of new tickets sold between T-7 and T-4):

2.67x Barbie (w/ EA): $59.53 Million (1107)

5.06x Oppenheimer: $53.11 Million (569)

7.04x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ all EA): 63.3 Million (527)

 

jjj-laugh.png

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1 hour ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

What do you think that means? A lot of these numbers are given with little commentary, but for the novices here what does this seem to portend for previews and that first weekend? This is a really long movie for adults and I’m not convinced it’s going to do most of its business on Thursday. The comps seem pretty steady?

 

Most trackers keep updates pretty limited to the data. There's always different ways to interpret, so, you're not going to editorialize too much. The data, specifically comps and growth trends do a lot of the speaking. 

 

Also, when tracking just opening day, there's not a lot to say about the overall weekend trend. Others may overlay historical comparisons to outline where it may go ( @M37 excels at this), but, in this case, it's probably a difficult one to nail down.

 

At this stage, we have a range for the previews number, but, sales have been front loaded, so its trending down. But, it's also not something with a lot of comparables.

 

The multiplier over the weekend is also tough to pin down. Weekends are a better chance for people to watch a 3.5 hour film. But, this is also driven by a passionate fan base.

 

Ultimately, I'd say the forecast from Box Office Pro ($29-38M) aligns to what we're seeing in tracking. But it's also not a film people seem confident enough to put a super firm prediction down for right now. Lots of variables left.

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5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels Presales are starting tomorrow

 

MTC1 opening day presales for past 4 movies

 

1) Guardians 3 - 68696 // 2nd day morning number

2) Antman - ~88.5k

3) Wakanda - 110K

4) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

What would be a good target. Eternals sold something in low 30s. That is the base minimum. Anything close to Guardians is good. If its above that its terrific. 

 

 

60-70k is what I’m expecting

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3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Most trackers keep updates pretty limited to the data. There's always different ways to interpret, so, you're not going to editorialize too much. The data, specifically comps and growth trends do a lot of the speaking. 

 

Also, when tracking just opening day, there's not a lot to say about the overall weekend trend. Others may overlay historical comparisons to outline where it may go ( @M37 excels at this), but, in this case, it's probably a difficult one to nail down.

 

At this stage, we have a range for the previews number, but, sales have been front loaded, so its trending down. But, it's also not something with a lot of comparables.

 

The multiplier over the weekend is also tough to pin down. Weekends are a better chance for people to watch a 3.5 hour film. But, this is also driven by a passionate fan base.

 

Ultimately, I'd say the forecast from Box Office Pro ($29-38M) aligns to what we're seeing in tracking. But it's also not a film people seem confident enough to put a super firm prediction down for right now. Lots of variables left.

Got it. Thanks! As a fan of Scorsese and the actors in this and someone who really is looking forward to this film having read the book, id be thrilled with that range so fingers crossed. 

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1 hour ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

What do you think that means? A lot of these numbers are given with little commentary, but for the novices here what does this seem to portend for previews and that first weekend? This is a really long movie for adults and I’m not convinced it’s going to do most of its business on Thursday. The comps seem pretty steady?

It had a nice initial burst, but has been on a downward trend for the past week (at least here) which isn't a great sign 

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6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels Presales are starting tomorrow

 

MTC1 opening day presales for past 4 movies

 

1) Guardians 3 - 68696 // 2nd day morning number

2) Antman - ~88.5k

3) Wakanda - 110K

4) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

What would be a good target. Eternals sold something in low 30s. That is the base minimum. Anything close to Guardians is good. If its above that its terrific. 

 

 

25-35K

Edit: Eternals did 37K. So 35K possible.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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