The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.75
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
MTC1	8	59	+20	368	10,485	3.51%	5.75%
MTC2	4	48	+4	97	8,204	1.18%	4.30%
MTC3	3	39	+4	196	8,077	2.43%	2.08%
Other	10	42	+8	65	6,943	0.94%	14.04%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.685x	=	$4.93m
Barbie					0.271x	=	$6.01m
Oppenheimer					0.539x	=	$5.66m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.911x	=	$8.02m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.578x	=	$8.84m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.537x	=	$5.53m

 

Matinee: 2.62%

3D: 9.50%

PLF: 61.43%

 

Comp average: $6.50m

 

Usual last local chain added at T-9. Unfortunately it had hardly sold anything so far so lost more ground than expected as my comps get an unnatural bump today typically (which this didn't). For example, FNAF "growth" at T-9 was over 10%, over double the previous day. Here "growth" is basically identical to yesterday.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.66
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
MTC1	8	59	+12	380	10,485	3.62%	3.26%
MTC2	4	48	+13	110	8,204	1.34%	13.40%
MTC3	3	39	+18	214	8,077	2.65%	9.18%
Other	10	42	+7	72	6,943	1.04%	10.77%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.709x	=	$5.10m
Barbie					0.257x	=	$5.71m
Oppenheimer					0.528x	=	$5.55m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.933x	=	$8.21m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.470x	=	$8.23m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.538x	=	$5.54m

 

Matinee: 2.96%

3D: 9.28%

PLF: 60.70%

 

Comp average: $6.39m

[Hilts]

On 10/29/2023 at 10:17 PM, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together							OK
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings						ATP	$9.74
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-10	10	10	0	103	1,481	6.95%	0.00%
T-9	11	11	10	113	1,953	5.79%	9.71%
T-8	11	11	18	131	1,953	6.71%	15.93%
T-7	11	11	7	138	1,953	7.07%	5.34%
T-6	11	11	43	181	1,953	9.27%	31.16%
MTC1	3	3	+13	78	604	12.91%	20.00%
MTC2	2	2	+6	16	239	6.69%	60.00%
MTC3	3	3	+19	67	634	10.57%	39.58%
Other	3	3	+5	20	476	4.20%	33.33%
Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$11.82
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-22	20	87	3	34	12,669	0.27%	9.68%
T-21	20	87	0	34	12,669	0.27%	0.00%
T-20	20	87	0	34	12,669	0.27%	0.00%
T-19	20	87	2	36	12,669	0.28%	5.88%
T-18	20	87	0	36	12,669	0.28%	0.00%
MTC1	7	25	0	8	2,813	0.28%	0.00%
MTC2	4	27	0	5	4,460	0.11%	0.00%
MTC3	3	12	0	11	2,536	0.43%	0.00%
Other	6	23	0	12	2,860	0.42%	0.00%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.486x	=	$1.51m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.444x	=	$1.71m

 

Matinee: 30.56%

3D: 16.67%

 

Good day for EA.

 

Trolls Band Together							OK
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings						ATP	$10.03
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	11	11	7	138	1,953	7.07%	5.34%
T-6	11	11	43	181	1,953	9.27%	31.16%
T-5	11	11	25	206	1,953	10.55%	13.81%
T-4	11	11	31	237	1,953	12.14%	15.05%
T-3	11	11	58	295	1,953	15.10%	24.47%
MTC1	3	3	+34	119	604	19.70%	40.00%
MTC2	2	2	+9	46	239	19.25%	24.32%
MTC3	3	3	+13	100	634	15.77%	14.94%
Other	3	3	+2	30	476	6.30%	7.14%
Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$11.59
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-19	20	87	2	36	12,669	0.28%	5.88%
T-18	20	87	0	36	12,669	0.28%	0.00%
T-17	20	87	4	40	12,669	0.32%	11.11%
T-16	20	87	0	40	12,669	0.32%	0.00%
T-15	20	87	9	49	12,669	0.39%	22.50%
MTC1	7	25	+6	14	2,813	0.50%	75.00%
MTC2	4	27	0	9	4,460	0.20%	0.00%
MTC3	3	12	+3	14	2,536	0.55%	27.27%
Other	6	23	0	12	2,860	0.42%	0.00%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.563x	=	$1.75m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.551x	=	$2.12m

 

Matinee: 30.61%

3D: 12.24%

[Hilts]

Thanksgiving is DOA here. Will post an update once I have enough volume to actually produce any meaningful content.

 

Meanwhile had a quick scan at The Color Purple whilst I was there and has actually done pretty well so far despite only being on sale for a few hours and being so far out. I am undecided if I will track yet since it doesn't have previews, but maybe I will look at it closer to release depending on how many other ones I'm juggling.

[M37]

35 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.66
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
MTC1	8	59	+12	380	10,485	3.62%	3.26%
MTC2	4	48	+13	110	8,204	1.34%	13.40%
MTC3	3	39	+18	214	8,077	2.65%	9.18%
Other	10	42	+7	72	6,943	1.04%	10.77%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.709x	=	$5.10m
Barbie					0.257x	=	$5.71m
Oppenheimer					0.528x	=	$5.55m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.933x	=	$8.21m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.470x	=	$8.23m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.538x	=	$5.54m

 

Matinee: 2.96%

3D: 9.28%

PLF: 60.70%

 

Comp average: $6.39m

One data point, noise of small numbers, etc, but ....

 

Do find it interesting that the day after Halloween and suddenly the non-MTC1 locations see daily increases of +13.4%, +9.12% and +10.8% respectively, and PLF % of tickets starts to drop after being stuck at ~61.5% for days. If we were to see the GA come out of their Halloween spell and finally start paying attention to Marvels - and I'm not sure that we will - this is about how one would expect it to start

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

One data point, noise of small numbers, etc, but ....

 

Do find it interesting that the day after Halloween and suddenly the non-MTC1 locations see daily increases of +13.4%, +9.12% and +10.8% respectively, and PLF % of tickets starts to drop after being stuck at ~61.5% for days. If we were to see the GA come out of their Halloween spell and finally start paying attention to Marvels - and I'm not sure that we will - this is about how one would expect it to start

This is good. But sample is too small to assume overall numbers are also growing at the same pace. it would be nice to see that confirmation from other locations as well. That said non MTC1 have to grow fast considering they are at very bad shape. MTC1 is like 45% of Guardians and non MTC1 is like 1/3rd !!!

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	303	31233	0.97%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-16

 

EA on Saturday = 319 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.692x) of Elemental $1.66M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.66M

 

2 returns, no sales  

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	308	31233	0.99%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-15

 

EA on Saturday = 387 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.692x) of Elemental $1.66M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.66M

[Hilts]

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.39

 

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-15	19	81	248	248	15,547	1.60%

 

MTC1	8	28	+127	127	5,040	2.52%
MTC2	4	23	+45	45	3,655	1.23%
MTC3	3	20	+50	50	5,355	0.93%
Other	4	10	+26	26	1,497	1.74%

 

Day 1 Comps
Barbie					0.471x	=	$10.47m
Blue Beetle					3.263x	=	$10.77m
The Creator					4.960x	=	$7.94m
Five Nights At Freddy's					1.272x	=	$13.10m
The Marvels					0.961x

 

Matinee: 6.85%

PLF: 41.53%

 

As some already said show count is feeling the squeeze, I believe higher than FNAF started with but less than half of Marvels.

 

Unfortunately I don't have Day 1 for Oppenheimer. FNAF comp is starting quite high but the following days saw a smaller drop off so depending on how quickly THG settles down I would expect that to go down but let's see. Interesting that this is basically level with Marvels. If anything, I am pulling the numbers a little sooner than I normally would so comps may look slightly weaker than they actually are. Honestly I was expecting less so I would say this is pretty decent start but let's see how front-loaded it is or not. I would also point out compared to Marvels that PLF share is quite a bit lower at the moment which may bring the ATP down slightly.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Hilts

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

PRISCILLA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
129	151	22478	0.67%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.195x) of KOTFM $507K Previews

(0.621x) of Greek Wedding $341K Previews

Comps AVG: $424k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

PRISCILLA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
129	201	22478	0.89%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

50

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.232x) of KOTFM $604K Previews

(0.693x) of Fat Greek Wedding 3 $381K Previews

(0.421x) of Haunting in Venice $505K Previews

Comps AVG: $496k

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	599	29762	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(1.524x) of Elemental $3.66M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

455 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

126 seats sold over 10 showings 

 

No sales today 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	592	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(1.487x) of Elemental $3.57M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

455 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

125 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/31/2023 at 6:49 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	65	20993	0.31%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.151x) of Exorcist $430K Previews

Comps AVG: $430k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	101	20993	0.48%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.224x) of Exorcist $640K Previews

Comps AVG: $640k

[Bob Train]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-five-nights-at-freddys-to-repeat-in-second-frame-amid-slow-november-kick-off/

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 5	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Five Nights at Freddy’s	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$25,000,000	$121,400,000	~3,675	-69%
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour	AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films	$8,000,000	$162,100,000	~3,750	-48%
Killers of the Flower Moon	Paramount Pictures & Apple	$6,200,000	$51,500,000	~3,600	-33%
Priscilla	A24	$5,500,000	$5,500,000	~1,450	NEW
After Death	Angel Studios	$2,900,000	$10,200,000	~2,700	-43%
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	Paramount Pictures	$1,700,000	$61,800,000	~2,500	-27%
The Exorcist: Believer	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$1,600,000	$62,500,000	~2,600	-51%
The Nightmare Before Christmas: 30th Anniversary	Walt Disney Pictures	$1,400,000	$87,900,000	~1,700	-34%
What Happens Later	Bleecker Street	$1,300,000	$1,300,000	1,488	NEW
Freelance	Relativity Media	$1,000,000	$4,000,000	~2,000	-52%
Saw X	Lionsgate	$1,000,000	$52,300,000	~1,800	-43%
The Marsh King’s Daughter	STX & Lionsgate & Roadside Attractions	n/a	n/a	~1,100	NEW

Edited November 1, 2023 by Bob Train

[keysersoze123]

Trolls Band Together Early Shows(11/4)

MTC1 - 8382/46657 88818.70 272 shows

MTC2 - 7462/34384 88788.70 228 shows

 

 

Really good pace(> 1K per day) at both MTC. Thinking it can triple this number at MTC1 and may be 250% growth at MTC2. I am thinking between 750K-1m range for early shows. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/31/2023 at 6:55 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
275	2534	55831	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.408x) of GOTG3~$7.14M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.14M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
275	2589	55831	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.405x) of GOTG3 $7.09M Previews

(0.919x) of Flash $8.91M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.00M

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15 *First few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
168	843	32190	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.683x) of RoTB $6.01M Previews

(1.650x) of Blue Beetle $5.44M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.73M

 

First few hours:

 

(0.902x) of FNAF $9.29M Previews

(1.947x) of Blue Beetle $6.42M Previews

(0.521x) of The Marvels ??? Previews

 

NOTE: Blue beetle has a similar presales window, so that's why i'm using it as a comp. The Little Mermaid is not a viable comp due to Disney

 

Not a bad start, but also not an explosive one. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[rehpyc]

T-9 The Marvels:

Quantumania: 3.21M

GoTG3: 4.82M

Shang-Chi: 6.78M

AtSV: 8.00M

Thor L&T: 4.22M

Eternals: 4.86M

Flash: 6.11M

 

Just abysmal around this parts, with each comp falling. AtSV comp is starting to drop at an increasing rate, as its sales really began ramping up around T-7. Given comparisons of others here, this MTC really must be under indexing...

 

[Flip]

maybe Don’t Worry Darling for Hunger Games? Obviously Hunger Games will be bigger and less frontloaded, but I’d imagine the demos would be pretty similar, despite the genre difference.

[ZattMurdock]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

One data point, noise of small numbers, etc, but ....

 

Do find it interesting that the day after Halloween and suddenly the non-MTC1 locations see daily increases of +13.4%, +9.12% and +10.8% respectively, and PLF % of tickets starts to drop after being stuck at ~61.5% for days. If we were to see the GA come out of their Halloween spell and finally start paying attention to Marvels - and I'm not sure that we will - this is about how one would expect it to start

When people get their paychecks usually in the US? Not sure if it can be applied in the US, but I know a lot of people that were waiting for their paychecks / credit card bills to close so they would preorder their tickets. It’s common place to people here to wait until the beginning of the month to buy movie tickets or any kind of entertainment they are looking forward to. Not sure how it works in the US, but most people here receive their paychecks monthly.

Edited November 2, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[vafrow]

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-15, D1, hr ~21, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 47

New sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 19

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Tickets per showtime analysis (tickets sold/showtimes= tickets per showtime)

Avg: 2.5

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 1/3= 0.3

Early Evening: 35/9=3.9

Late Evening: 11/7=1.6

 

By format:

Regular: 2/3=0.7

Dolby: 18/7=2.6

VIP: 21/3=7.0

IMAX: 6/4=1.5

4DX: 0/2=0

 

Trying something new. I don't think I'll have much in the way of comps. Will try this approach for this run if it offers any value.

[keysersoze123]

48 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

T-9 The Marvels:

Quantumania: 3.21M

GoTG3: 4.82M

Shang-Chi: 6.78M

AtSV: 8.00M

Thor L&T: 4.22M

Eternals: 4.86M

Flash: 6.11M

 

Just abysmal around this parts, with each comp falling. AtSV comp is starting to drop at an increasing rate, as its sales really began ramping up around T-7. Given comparisons of others here, this MTC really must be under indexing...

 

I was wrong in thinking MTC2 was under indexing. Now the comps from @rehpyc  its at least not as bad at MTC2. In fact its MTC1 which is over indexing huge due to subscribers. Which kind of puts this movie in the same bucket as DCEU bombs like Shazam, Flash and Blue Beetle than any of previous MCU movies. 

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-15, Day 1, taken around 11 PM CST):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	46	192	192	8021	2.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		155	155	80.73
MTC1:		158	158	82.29
Marcus:		10	10	5.21
Alamo:		18	18	9.38
Other chains:		6	6	3.13

 

Comps:

0.42x The Marvels Day 1 (10:30 PM count): ???
0.97x FNAF (6 PM count): $9.99 Million

 

Imperfect comps, in part due to my inconsistent count times. It was a long day at school today (parent-teacher conferences!), hence why my update and count are so late. Anyway, pretty close to what @TheFlatLannister is seeing, decent start but nothing too crazy. Heavyyyyyyy MTC1 overindex to start.

Edited November 2, 2023 by abracadabra1998