The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Kon]

28 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

There is some Wonka updates in this thread.

 

I'm tracking, just not posting daily due to numbers being too low to really make much sense of with a smaller sample. Sales starting about 5 or 6 days ago, so I'd go back a few pages before the Aquaman madness started.

Thank you very much.

[Giorno]

Wonka (D-23):

 

58 tickets at 5 Houston AMC's

 

Migration (D-30) 1 day on sale:

 

0 tickets sold at 5 Houston area AMC's

 

Aquaman 2 (D-30) 1 day on sale:

 

102 tickets at 5 Houston AMC's

Edited November 21, 2023 by Giorno

[Cmasterclay]

I don't do formal tracking like the superstars here, but I do my casual looks in Miami and DC area theaters and Napoleon has outsold KOTFM in both areas as of morning of previews. Hard to see how it misses 2 unless fluke of markets or ATP crushing it.

[Joyous Legion]

FWiW since I had someone on Reddit ask me several time to put my AQM2 thoughts in this thread, my read of this start (mostly going off Porthos Lannister jat keyser) is ~3-4.5 previews, 5-6 IM (this may seem very pessimistic but the Fri Dec 22 release is really bad for IM — you make it up on total/ow), 4-5 legs unless reception overperforms. Midpoint say 3.5->20 -> 85, could get very close with Marvels

 

Absolutely dead genre which is awkward since it’s been propping the industry up for some half dozen years. A lot will hinge on whether Gunnverse and the at this point inevitable hard course correction of saga 2 can return to solid nums or not.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Legion Again

[vafrow]

On 11/20/2023 at 12:26 PM, vafrow said:

As of noon, still no Aquaman or Migration tickets on sale for Cineplex. But Aquaman is for sale at Landmark Cinemas.

 

24 hours and still nothing. And I've found another independent theatre nearby that has Aquaman showtimes up, along with Landmark. They also have The Color Purple as well, which neither Cineplex or Landmark have.

 

I'm watching for how this plays out. We went through this with FNAF, where no advance tickets were available until the full Thursday sets were out at around T-9 or so, but that felt like just not recognizing the franchise strength. Cineplex has always gone in hard with WB and their DC films, to the point that theatres still have leftover merchandise from thd summer for their DC films.

 

Its also worth noting that Wonka, from the same studio, was put up for sale at the same time as the US release.

 

My theory is that the chain is taking a wait and see approach on theatre allocation. The Christmas period is a massive money maker, and maybe they don't want to allocate screens just yet. However, the approach has always been to go with low footprint initially, and expand as things get closer. And it's not like Aquaman will do so poorly to not earn full allocations.

 

Or, maybe terms are still being negotiated. However, I can't see what else would warrant the plf screens.

 

It's only been a day, but it's odd behavior that I'll be keeping an eye on.

[Hilts]

21 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Saltburn							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$10.03*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	7	25	5	31	3,148	0.98%	19.23%
T-4	7	25	10	41	3,148	1.30%	32.26%
T-3	7	25	4	45	3,148	1.43%	9.76%
T-2	7	25	4	49	3,148	1.56%	8.89%
T-1	7	25	14	63	3,148	2.00%	28.57%
MTC1	2	7	+7	34	667	5.10%	25.93%
MTC2	2	7	+1	11	612	1.80%	10.00%
MTC3	2	8	+6	13	1,272	1.02%	85.71%
Other	1	3	0	5	597	0.84%	0.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.303x	=	$0.33m
Talk To Me					0.496x	=	$0.62m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.618x	=	$0.46m
A Haunting In Venice					0.313x	=	$0.34m
Priscilla					0.851x	=	$0.38m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 14.29%

 

Looking ~$250k-$300k with Discount Tues

 

Saltburn							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$9.67*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	7	25	10	41	3,148	1.30%	32.26%
T-3	7	25	4	45	3,148	1.43%	9.76%
T-2	7	25	4	49	3,148	1.56%	8.89%
T-1	7	25	14	63	3,148	2.00%	28.57%
T-0	9	32	48	111	3,574	3.11%	76.19%
MTC1	3	11	+19	53	973	5.45%	55.88%
MTC2	2	7	+19	30	612	4.90%	172.73%
MTC3	2	8	+6	19	1,272	1.49%	46.15%
Other	2	6	+4	9	717	1.26%	80.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.326x	=	$0.36m
Talk To Me					0.358x	=	$0.45m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.413x	=	$0.31m
A Haunting In Venice					0.309x	=	$0.34m
Priscilla					0.917x	=	$0.41m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 22.52%

 

Comp average = $370k - less Discount Tues = ~$250k previews

 

Hopefully can pick up throughout the holiday. $10m over the 5 day seems tough but hope I'm proven wrong.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Hilts

[Hilts]

22 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Wish							OK

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$11.16**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	24	108	47	166	15,688	1.06%	39.50%
T-4	24	108	20	186	15,688	1.19%	12.05%
T-3	24	112	50	236	16,956	1.39%	26.88%
T-2	24	112	92	328	16,956	1.93%	38.98%
T-1	24	113	131	459	17,015	2.70%	39.94%
MTC1	7	32	+44	176	4,535	3.88%	33.33%
MTC2	4	25	+32	85	4,131	2.06%	60.38%
MTC3	3	15	+35	74	2,762	2.68%	89.74%
Other	10	41	+20	124	5,587	2.22%	19.23%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				0.855x	=	$2.65m	$1.99m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.790x	=	$3.04m
Trolls Band Together				1.485x	=	$1.93m	$1.45m

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 33.77%

3D: 17.86%

 

Tues comp points to $3m, Thurs comps point to under $2m... looking closer to the latter as TMNT final day growth was 150%! Haunted Mansion was 80% so should drop there too, probably will stay even with Trolls but then have to discount due to ATP. I am thinking similar to Encanto finish right now.

 

Wish

OK

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$10.68**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	24	108	20	186	15,688	1.19%	12.05%
T-3	24	112	50	236	16,956	1.39%	26.88%
T-2	24	112	92	328	16,956	1.93%	38.98%
T-1	24	113	131	459	17,015	2.70%	39.94%
T-0	24	124	686	1,145	17,597	6.51%	149.46%
MTC1	7	33	+196	372	4,618	8.06%	111.36%
MTC2	4	26	+122	207	4,244	4.88%	143.53%
MTC3	3	15	+143	217	2,762	7.86%	193.24%
Other	10	50	+225	349	5,973	5.84%	181.45%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				1.188x	=	$3.68m	$2.76m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.785x	=	$3.02m
Trolls Band Together				2.562x	=	$3.33m	$2.50m

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 41.31%

3D: 13.80%

 

WOAH yesterday I underestimated the appeal of matinee discount Tues big time! Hit that 150% final day growth rate matching TMNT exactly.

 

So yeah I think my comp range is pretty spot on (hopefully) @ $2.5m-$3m and will go down the middle with a $2.75m prediction.

 

Maybe I'm not taking enough off for the ATP difference but let's see. This is quite matinee heavy which Encanto and Strange World did not have for their Tuesday previews. We need the Wednesday number really before we can say whether this does $30/40/50m 5 day.

[Relevation]

22 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Wish

OK

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$10.68**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	24	108	20	186	15,688	1.19%	12.05%
T-3	24	112	50	236	16,956	1.39%	26.88%
T-2	24	112	92	328	16,956	1.93%	38.98%
T-1	24	113	131	459	17,015	2.70%	39.94%
T-0	24	124	686	1,145	17,597	6.51%	149.46%
MTC1	7	33	+196	372	4,618	8.06%	111.36%
MTC2	4	26	+122	207	4,244	4.88%	143.53%
MTC3	3	15	+143	217	2,762	7.86%	193.24%
Other	10	50	+225	349	5,973	5.84%	181.45%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				1.188x	=	$3.68m	$2.76m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.785x	=	$3.02m
Trolls Band Together				2.562x	=	$3.33m	$2.50m

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 41.31%

3D: 13.80%

 

WOAH yesterday I underestimated the appeal of matinee discount Tues big time! Hit that 150% final day growth rate matching TMNT exactly.

 

So yeah I think my comp range is pretty spot on (hopefully) @ $2.5m-$3m and will go down the middle with a $2.75m prediction.

 

Maybe I'm not taking enough off for the ATP difference but let's see. This is quite matinee heavy which Encanto and Strange World did not have for their Tuesday previews. We need the Wednesday number really before we can say whether this does $30/40/50m 5 day.

We are so back

The Wish walkups just put $50M+ back in the realm of possibility presuming audiences don’t hate it 

[Bob Train]

I would imagine walkups for Wish are dependent on whether schools are off for TUE depending on the region. Due to more matinee showings, the internal multiplier may be lower than SW/Encanto. 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Bob Train

[YM!]

Joining @YachtyLogs in some Milwaukee tracking today, but I will be using the North area, primarily North Shore Cinema and Menomonee Falls Cinema

 

Wish (as of 2:31 pm, 29 minutes before showtime)

247/1977 seats (898 PLF, 247 3D, 832 2D) - 44% PLF, 2.6% 3D, 53.4% regular of those sold - 12.5% of sales

 

Napoleon (as of 2:40 pm, 20 minutes before showtime)

272/987 seats (538 2D, 449 PLF) - 22.4% PLF, 77.6% regular - 27.6 % of sales

 

I am pretty impressed with Napoleon's growth, the 3:00 at one theater is almost sold out and think feel confident in 2M previews. Wish is kind of soft so far, will check again in like 10 minutes but I believe the main districts are still in school today, but the evening shows are where the real driving of tickets is. Thinking around 1.5M

Edited November 21, 2023 by YM!

[el sid]

I almost forgot that I counted Wonka yesterday (nobody would have noticed anyway ).
It had for Thursday, December 14, 278 sold tickets in 7 theaters. 24 days left.
Comps (both counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday so Wonka has 21 days left to come closer, overtake or increase the margin): The Little Mermaid (10.3M from previews/95.6M OW) had 1.505 sold tickets
and Dolittle (925k/22M OW) had 156 sold tickets.
Haunted Mansion (3.1M from previews/24.1M OW) had with 12 days left 194 sold tickets.

Of course very uneven from the comps at the moment but I would say that's quite good for Wonka with more than 3 weeks to go and for a movie which could/should have good legs. I wouldn't write it off that fast.

Edited November 21, 2023 by el sid

[el sid]

Napoleon, counted today (before 9am EST) for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 178 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 52 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 38 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 37 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 35 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 458 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 372 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.170.

Up ok 29% since yesterday.
Comps (all five films counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Creator (1.6M from previews) had 1.120 sold tickets. I said yesterday that I guess that Napoleon will be on par, now it's even a little bit in front = 1.7M from previews,
65 (1.22M) had 300 = 4.8M,
Creed III (5.45M) had 1.080 = 5.9M,
Death on the Nile (1.1M) had 466 = 2.75M
and A Haunting in Venice (1.2M) had 473 sold tickets = 3M.
The Expend4bles (750k) had on Friday for Friday 276 sold tickets = 3.2M.

Very uneven from the comps and how good it looks for Napoleon depends completely on the genre. The average of all comps is 3.6M. But some of my comps had good walk-ups. Probably Death on the Nile and A Haunting in Venice are the more realistic comps which would mean close to or around 3M from previews.

 

PS: I forgot that it's discount Tuesday but fingers crossed that this attracts more moviegoers...
And of course I would have added The Last Duel and The Northman as comps but I have only their Friday presales. But overall both films had way less presales, The Northman ca. 1/2 and The Last Duel ca. 1/10.

Edited November 21, 2023 by el sid

[MovieMan89]

I will believe a Napoleon breakout when I see the actual numbers, but maybe we really are in a place where literally something has to breakout for thanksgiving and we’re kinda outta options… 

[Hilts]

22 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$14.34*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	19	62	25	284	10,990	2.58%	9.65%
T-4	19	65	61	345	11,677	2.95%	21.48%
T-3	19	68	57	402	12,783	3.14%	16.52%
T-2	19	68	101	503	12,783	3.93%	25.12%
T-1	19	72	196	699	13,253	5.27%	38.97%
MTC1	8	25	+80	256	4,621	5.54%	45.45%
MTC2	3	16	+16	59	2,700	2.19%	37.21%
MTC3	3	16	+67	274	3,814	7.18%	32.37%
Other	5	15	+33	110	2,118	5.19%	42.86%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.613x	=	$4.29m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.203x	=	$4.63m
Oppenheimer					0.205x	=	$2.16m
The Creator					2.105x	=	$2.84m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 15.45%

PLF: 40.77%

 

Last few days have been on par with MI7, not sure what's going on here but that will definitely correct tomorrow.

 

This has been selling enough tickets here to be in the $3m-$4m range but with Discount Tues I guess will converge to low to high 2s.

 

Napoleon							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$13.85*
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	19	65	61	345	11,677	2.95%	21.48%
T-3	19	68	57	402	12,783	3.14%	16.52%
T-2	19	68	101	503	12,783	3.93%	25.12%
T-1	19	72	196	699	13,253	5.27%	38.97%
T-0	24	85	795	1,494	14,494	10.31%	113.73%
MTC1	8	26	+256	512	4,701	10.89%	100.00%
MTC2	4	19	+128	187	3,123	5.99%	216.95%
MTC3	3	16	+272	546	3,814	14.32%	99.27%
Other	9	24	+139	249	2,856	8.72%	126.36%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.695x	=	$4.87m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.025x	=	$3.95m
Oppenheimer					0.307x	=	$3.22m
The Creator					2.511x	=	$4.02m

 

*only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 21.35%

PLF: 44.71%

 

Err yeah same thing here, bumper final day. $4m is basically locked according to Tues comps lol.

 

Going to presume its overperforming here and go for a discounted Oppy comp of $2.5m which is probably still too high.

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, el sid said:

I almost forgot that I counted Wonka yesterday (nobody would have noticed anyway ).

 

Well, I think @Kon would have noticed.

 

(FWIW, been tracking it on the side on my home sheet and... it's not doing too badly — still too long of a pre-sale window but seems to doing fairly decently for itself [not that I've actually looked at any of comps to see just how decently])

[abracadabra1998]

57 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Wish

OK

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$10.68**
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	24	108	20	186	15,688	1.19%	12.05%
T-3	24	112	50	236	16,956	1.39%	26.88%
T-2	24	112	92	328	16,956	1.93%	38.98%
T-1	24	113	131	459	17,015	2.70%	39.94%
T-0	24	124	686	1,145	17,597	6.51%	149.46%
MTC1	7	33	+196	372	4,618	8.06%	111.36%
MTC2	4	26	+122	207	4,244	4.88%	143.53%
MTC3	3	15	+143	217	2,762	7.86%	193.24%
Other	10	50	+225	349	5,973	5.84%	181.45%
Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion				1.188x	=	$3.68m	$2.76m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM				0.785x	=	$3.02m
Trolls Band Together				2.562x	=	$3.33m	$2.50m

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 41.31%

3D: 13.80%

 

WOAH yesterday I underestimated the appeal of matinee discount Tues big time! Hit that 150% final day growth rate matching TMNT exactly.

 

So yeah I think my comp range is pretty spot on (hopefully) @ $2.5m-$3m and will go down the middle with a $2.75m prediction.

 

Maybe I'm not taking enough off for the ATP difference but let's see. This is quite matinee heavy which Encanto and Strange World did not have for their Tuesday previews. We need the Wednesday number really before we can say whether this does $30/40/50m 5 day.

What’s the school situation like? In Minnesota most schools are not off for Tuesday so maybe I should have been more lenient with the numbers 

[M37]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I will believe a Napoleon breakout when I see the actual numbers, but maybe we really are in a place where literally something has to breakout for thanksgiving and we’re kinda outta options… 

Last year we had Menu, Strange World, Devotion, Glass Onion (less than 1000 theaters), plus Bones & All and Fablemans -  not a single breakout there. BPWF accounted for about half the TG gross in its 3rd weekend. The floor isn’t dropping on anything that opened last weekend/will open this week, enough decent product to spread business around

 

 

[Hilts]

5 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

What’s the school situation like? In Minnesota most schools are not off for Tuesday so maybe I should have been more lenient with the numbers 

 

Didn't even think about that... pretty sure most/all closed so might explain it!

[Halberstram]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I will believe a Napoleon breakout when I see the actual numbers, but maybe we really are in a place where literally something has to breakout for thanksgiving and we’re kinda outta options… 

This is where the Holdovers break outs and becomes the top movie from the fall season

[MovieMan89]

14 minutes ago, Halberstram said:

This is where the Holdovers break outs and becomes the top movie from the fall season

My *ahem* wish is for all of the disappointed Disney adults to take their dollar to Boy and the Heron in a couple weeks…