The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[PlatnumRoyce]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Barbie	3,544	161,402		154,360		7,042	0	0
Oppenheimer	3,205	74,900		66,075		8,825	4,758	0
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One	3,460	50,718	-49.30%	49,368	546.71	1,350	6	0
Sound of Freedom	2,741	36,961	1.05%	36,937	745.83	24	0	0
Insidious: The Red Door	2,188	28,954	-33.11%	28,940	300.36	14	0	0
Elemental	2,258	27,699	-21.24%	26,617	258.71	1,082	0	1,060
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	2,387	27,456	-32.58%	27,423	301.26	33	0	0
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	1,404	10,551	-58.79%	10,533	236.40	18	0	0
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	682	4,726	-72.20%	4,400	202.47	326	0	303
No Hard Feelings	770	3,920	-79.85%	3,920	168.61	0	0	0
The Little Mermaid	525	3,520	-69.72%	3,369	206.44	151	0	139
Terrifier	481	2,116		2,113		3	0	0

 

Any idea of how representative this % of PLF/IMAX is to final reporting nationwide? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Any idea of how representative this % of PLF/IMAX is to final reporting nationwide? 

@across the Jat verse might have an idea.  I don't pull Canada anymore, so that's a big part of the ~19% of the full market I'm missing.  I mostly use this for comparison since I use the same sample every week.

[PlatnumRoyce]

4 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

@across the Jat verse might have an idea.  I don't pull Canada anymore, so that's a big part of the ~19% of the full market I'm missing.  I mostly use this for comparison since I use the same sample every week.

Either way, very cool. Relative performance is probably all that I need for my goofy little comparison anyways. 

[Inceptionzq]

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Friday

400 Showings

20964

+3896

44563

2.422	AtSV T-1	83.57M
1.989	TLM T-1	55.40M

 

Barbie Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

403 Showings

25278

+4314

42856

1.953	AtSV T-0	67.39M
1.847	TLM T-0	51.43M

 

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Friday

459 Showings

35441

+3123

52968

ATP:

14.79

1.087	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	59.51M
0.959	No Way Home T-1	69.02M

Barbie Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

426 Showings

37538

+2097

48549

ATP:

14.71

1.009	Doctor Strange 2 T-0	55.22M
0.880	No Way Home T-0	63.31M

 

Missed some Drafthouse showings, but still a monster regardless

[Inceptionzq]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Friday

203 Showings

9532

+2113

26833

1.101

AtSV T-1

38.00M

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

179 Showings

10853

+1321

23027

1.724	Indiana Jones T-0	28.96M
0.839	AtSV T-0	28.93M

 

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Friday

253 Showings

17129

+2371

29958

ATP:

15.17

1.041	Avatar 2 T-1	37.67M
0.688	Thor L&T T-1	27.92M
0.964	JW Dominion T-1	40.11M

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

253 Showings

18340

+1211

27405

ATP:

14.84

1.322	Indiana Jones T-0	22.20M
0.925	Avatar 2 T-0	33.48M
0.617	Thor L&T T-0	25.04M
0.877	JW Dominion T-0	36.48M

 

Also missed some showings here

[keysersoze123]

I am glad Oppy did not over index as much as Flash. It still slightly over index but not a record. Minus the @Porthos and Santikos it did great elsewhere. 

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Oppenheimer Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

179 Showings

10853

+1321

23027

1.724	Indiana Jones T-0	28.96M
0.839	AtSV T-0	28.93M

 

Oppenheimer Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

253 Showings

18340

+1211

27405

ATP:

14.84

1.322	Indiana Jones T-0	22.20M
0.925	Avatar 2 T-0	33.48M
0.617	Thor L&T T-0	25.04M
0.877	JW Dominion T-0	36.48M

 

Also missed some showings here

how many shows they are. Anyway its seems highly constrained at both the chains. There is barely any potential for walkups 🙂

[keysersoze123]

37 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

@across the Jat verse might have an idea.  I don't pull Canada anymore, so that's a big part of the ~19% of the full market I'm missing.  I mostly use this for comparison since I use the same sample every week.

Canada is not 19% for sure. For big openers its like 6-7%. But the market is leggy and so it keeps going up. Also certain days Canada does overindex a lot. 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Canada is not 19% for sure. For big openers its like 6-7%. But the market is leggy and so it keeps going up. Also certain days Canada does overindex a lot. 

I think he meant 19% market he is missing.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am glad Oppy did not over index as much as Flash. It still slightly over index but not a record. Minus the @Porthos and Santikos it did great elsewhere. 

 

Sacramento obviously ran into capacity issues, IMO.  Makes sense as we don't have the super large mega theaters with 20+ (or even 30+!) screens.  Largest we have here is 16 and most of the good/well trafficked theaters cap out at 14.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Porthos

[Tinalera]

Who knew in a summer with Indy 5 and Mission Impossible the big attention would be movies about a comedyof a childs toy and a deep serious look at the creating hydrogen bomb.

 

Really excited to see what these numbers end up doing weekend-what a ride.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-13: 50.45% Awareness

Meg 2: The Trench T-15: 42.23% Awareness

Gran Turismo T-22: 26.88% Awareness

Strays T-29: 26.88% Awareness

Next Goal Wins T-120: 9.27% Awareness

Wish T-125: 21.67% Awareness

 

Barbie T-1: 75.02% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 75% chance of 100M, 25% chance of 200M

 

Talk to Me T-8: 23.04% Awareness

Final Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Original - High Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

[TheFlatLannister]

Weekend show count in Orlando-Melbourne-Daytona 

• Barbie - 1787 showings 
• Oppenheimer - 772 showings

 

• Mi7 - 589 showings
• SoF - 446 showings 
• Insidious - 371 showings 

 

• Elemental - 291 showings
• Indy 5 - 290 showings 
• ATSV -167 showings 

 

• TLM - 61 showings 
• No Hard Feelings - 37 showings  

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/20/2023 at 1:07 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Barbie	PLF	21	357	2,933	4,785	61.30%
		Standard	84	1,408	5,234	10,672	49.04%
	Total		105	1,765	8,167	15,457	52.84%
T-1	Barbie (Fri)	PLF	42	690	4,062	9,627	42.19%
		Standard	136	1,417	4,522	16,581	27.27%
	Total		178	2,107	8,584	26,208	32.75%
T-2	Barbie (Sat)	PLF	41	458	3,184	9,467	33.63%
		Standard	135	814	2,970	16,613	17.88%
	Total		176	1,272	6,154	26,080	23.60%
T-3	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	42	304	1,979	9,621	20.57%
		Standard	138	408	1,675	16,656	10.06%
	Total		180	712	3,654	26,277	13.91%

 

Barbie Previews T-0 comps (Excl EA)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.092x (19.22m)

 - TG2 (Thu) - 1.597x (23.48m) 

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 4.053x (24.32m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.453x (24.71m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - 4.041x (20.12m)

 - JWD - .914x (16.45m)

 

Barbie Fri T-1 comps

 - Batman - 1.11x (38.85m)

 - TG2 - 1.484x (48.53m)

 - JW3 - .84x (34.94m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.429x (51.74m)

 

Barbie Sat T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.098x (48.65m)

 

Barbie Sun T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.097x (40.13m)

 

Avatar OW comp - 1.29x (173.21m)

 

Pulled ahead of Avatar 2 in weekend sales.  Previews had another solid day.  Gonna stick with my 21.5m previews before EA is added.   I don't want to get expectations too high for the weekend, but... 180m could be in play...

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Barbie (Fri)	PLF	42	1,341	5,403	9,627	56.12%
		Standard	136	2,633	7,155	16,581	43.15%
	Total		178	3,974	12,558	26,208	47.92%
T-1	Barbie (Sat)	PLF	41	1,033	4,217	9,467	44.54%
		Standard	135	1,704	4,674	16,613	28.13%
	Total		176	2,737	8,891	26,080	34.09%
T-2	Barbie (Sun)	PLF	42	686	2,665	9,621	27.70%
		Standard	138	965	2,640	16,656	15.85%
	Total		180	1,651	5,305	26,277	20.19%

*Friday numbers taken this morning

 

Barbie Fri T-0 comps

 - Batman - 1.275x (44.65m)

 - TG2 - 1.487x (48.63m)

 - JW3 - .842x (35.01m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.56x (56.49m)

 - Elvis - 5.147x (47.64m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 3.778x (52.99m)

 

Barbie Fri adjusted comps

 - Batman - 42.53m

 - TG2 - 43.92m

 - JW3 - 45.13m

 - Avatar 2 - 48.46m

 - Elvis - 53.6m

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 46.2m

 - Crawdads - 55.41m

 - Don't Worry - 50.35m

 - Ticket to Paradise - 53.52m

 

Previews came in pretty close to most comps so the adjustments aren't too crazy.  Thinking 50m for Friday is in the cards.

 

Barbie Sat T-1 comps

 - Batman - 1.09x (47.16m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.33x (58.96m)

 

Barbie Sun T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - 1.333x (48.75m)

 

Pulled away from Avatar 2 a good amount.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/20/2023 at 12:59 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Oppenheimer	PLF	12	177	1,573	2,694	58.39%
		Standard	23	252	720	2,033	35.42%
	Total		35	429	2,293	4,727	48.51%
T-1	Oppenheimer (Fri)	PLF	21	221	2,265	4,763	47.55%
		Standard	50	407	1,003	4,729	21.21%
	Total		71	628	3,268	9,492	34.43%
T-2	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	21	222	2,284	4,747	48.11%
		Standard	47	319	799	4,414	18.10%
	Total		68	541	3,083	9,161	33.65%
T-3	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	170	1,561	4,747	32.88%
		Standard	51	152	447	4,767	9.38%
	Total		72	322	2,008	9,514	21.11%

 

Oppenheimer Previews T-0 comps

 - Batman (Total) - .289x (6.25m)

 - TG2 (Total) - .354x (6.82m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.138x (6.83m)

 - Avatar 2 - .408x (6.94m)

 - JWD - .257x (4.62m)

 - Morbius - 1.164x (6.63m)

 

Glad this isn't the only chain being tracked.  Looks like Santikos is under-indexing in a big way.  I could throw in a couple smaller adult driven movies that comp out to a closer range.

 

Smaller comps

 - Creed III - 2.178x (11.87m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 6.646x (9.97m)

 - Crawdads - 4.461x (8.92m)

 

This is more like the expected range.  The huge movies (CBM, JW, TG) are usually mostly sold out in Palladium and Casa Blanca by now so less room for preview walkups.  Even still, there isn't as much capacity here with only 35 total preview shows in the 10 theaters.  I'll go on the lower end of projections and say 7m based on Santikos (fully expecting it to come in much higher).

 

Oppenheimer Fri T-1 comps

 - Batman - .422x (14.79m)

 - TG2 - .565x (18.48m)

 - JW3 - .32x (13.3m)

 - Avatar 2 - .544x (19.7m)

 - Crawdads - 6.823x (35.92m)

 - Indiana Jones - 2.412x (39.75m)

 

Oppenheimer Sat T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .55x (24.37m)

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-3 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .603x (22.05m)

 

Avatar 2 OW comp - .518x (69.47m)

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Oppenheimer (Fri)	PLF	21	370	2,635	4,763	55.32%
		Standard	50	742	1,745	4,729	36.90%
	Total		71	1,112	4,380	9,492	46.14%
T-1	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	21	382	2,666	4,747	56.16%
		Standard	48	560	1,359	4,502	30.19%
	Total		69	942	4,025	9,249	43.52%
T-2	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	291	1,852	4,747	39.01%
		Standard	51	404	851	4,767	17.85%
	Total		72	695	2,703	9,514	28.41%

 

Oppenheimer Fri T-0 comps

 - Batman - .445x (15.57m)

 - TG2 - .519x (16.96m)

 - JW3 - .294x (12.21m)

 - Avatar 2 - .544x (19.7m)

 - Crawdads - 5.503x (28.97m)

 - Elvis - 1.795x (16.61m)

 

Oppenheimer Fri adjusted comps

 - Batman - 26.16m

 - TG2 - 27m

 - JW3 - 27.77m

 - Avatar 2 - 29.82m

 - Elvis - 32.98m

 

Adjustments are kinda crazy with how much it's underperforming here.  I think we'll probably get somewhere in the middle with like 23m

 

Oppenheimer Sat T-1 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .602x (26.69m)

 - Batman - .494x (21.35m)

 

Oppenheimer Sun T-2 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .679x (24.84m)

 - Batman - .701x (23.93m)

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/20/2023 at 2:03 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Oppenheimer (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	87	987	4827	12976	37.2

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	25.7
3-Day:	80.04

 

Comps:

1.5x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $13.54 Million

2.43x Indiana Jones- $17.5 Million

 

Seems like a fine T-1 update, except one of 19 theaters (AMC Southdale) is responsible for over a FOURTH (265/987) of that new seats sold numbr. I triple checked and it does seem like it's the right count, no error, but it's weird. No other theater approaches that number. I'm putting an asterisk by today and it's making me weary of comping growth rates (If I did, its 3-day is higher, 80 vs. 69, but its 1-day is lower, 25.7 vs 28.8, than MI7).

 

Also, one final wtf at the low number of shows

 

Barbie (T-1):

Day: T-1, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	197	1549	7664	25036	30.61
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	17	1198	1221	98.12
TOTALS:	203	1566	8862	26257	33.75

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	21.46
3-Day:	74.45

 

Comps:

2.76x Mission Impossible 7 (total)- $24.86 Million

1.84x Oppenheimer

 

I am going to miss what would be the most exciting update of my young tracking career, since I'll be traveling during T-1 hour tomorrow   it's a huge data point I'll be missing, but oh well. I'll be aggressively lurking this sub before and after my flight. Final predictions: can't really make one about Oppenheimer, my numbers are clearly over-indexing; Barbie- without PLFs, but also without the Tuesday discounts that MI7 had, give me $22.5 million, including EA. 

Late to the party, but what a Thursday! As expected, Oppy way overperformed here, but so happy it made it till double digits. As to Barbie, pretty dang close!

 

Be back on Sunday with haunted mansion update

Edited July 21, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[keysersoze123]

Remember all the Quorum numbers for Oppy and how it said even 40m is not likely !!! Let us not take away anything from these tracking services. Even the NRG numbers were reactive and well behind what the ticket sale data was telling us for a while that both these movies are breaking out big. 

[Old Spice]

10 showings at the Salt Lake Sugarhouse Cinemark between now and 10:00 PM for Barbie, with a total capacity of 678 seats, and there are only 39 left as of 2:50 PM MST.

 

For Opp there were 228 seats available and a grand total of 16 remain unspoken for.

 

Insane! 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, A Star is Delayed said:

10 showings at the Salt Lake Sugarhouse Cinemark between now and 10:00 PM for Barbie, with a total capacity of 678 seats, and there are only 39 left as of 2:50 PM MST.

 

For Opp there were 228 seats available and a grand total of 16 remain unspoken for.

 

Insane! 

Great to see movie theaters outside major metros being so busy. That said just 228 seats for Oppy seem anemic 😞 theaters really dropped the ball on screen allocation for it. 

[Old Spice]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Great to see movie theaters outside major metros being so busy. That said just 228 seats for Oppy seem anemic 😞 theaters really dropped the ball on screen allocation for it. 

Yeah, I was surprised too. They're running a full set for both Indy and Elemental and that's 11 screens right there. Elemental I can get because it's kids and it's been holding so well, but Indy...