The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

Maybe Talk to Me? That was another cinephile interest horror that went immediately wide

 

 

Edited Thursday at 05:37 PM by AniNate

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/1/2024 at 5:51 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	139	40	212	22960	0.92
Wednesday July 17 EA: 16 theaters	20	50	202	4204	4.8
TOTALS:	159	90	414	27164	1.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		170	34	80.19
MTC1:		147	29	69.34
Other chains:		65	11	30.66

 

Thursday Comps:

1.08x Quiet Place Day One: $7.36 Million

1.39x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $6.97 Million

1.89x Fall Guy: $4.45 Million

 

Average: $6.26 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $1.68 Million

1.73x Fall Guy: $1.38 Million

 

Average: $1.53 Million

 

Keeps doing really well in Minne!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	139	43	255	22960	1.11
Wednesday July 17 EA: 16 theaters	20	40	242	4204	5.76
TOTALS:	159	83	497	27164	1.83

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		201	31	78.82
MTC1:		171	24	67.06
Other chains:		84	19	32.94

 

Thursday Comps:

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.51x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $7.54 Million

1.81x Fall Guy: $4.25 Million

0.86x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $3.85 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.21 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.06x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $1.7 Million

1.69x Fall Guy: $1.35 Million

0.89x TMNT: $1.47 Million

0.55x MI7: $1.1 Million

 

Average: $1.41 Million

[filmlover]

A Quiet Place, MaXXXine, and Longlegs all doing well (in the case of the latter two, for what they are) would definitely turn things around for what's been an unexciting to depressing year for horror so far.

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/27/2024 at 11:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	290	154	4720	43339	10.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3129	58	66.29
MTC1:		2086	46	44.19
Other chains:		2634	108	55.81

 

(TERRIBLE) Comp:

2.24x Dune Part 2 (w/ EA): $26.86 Million

 

 

I'll add Barbenheimer and The Marvels, and switch to Dune Thursday Only in maybe a week or so

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	282	188	4908	40441	12.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3091	-38	62.98
MTC1:		2244	158	45.72
Other chains:		2664	30	54.28

 

Comps:

2.66x Dune Part 2 (THU): $26.56 Million (17 theaters)

4.74x Marvels: $31.3 Million (17 theaters)

2.34x Barbenheimer: $74.12 Million (lol)

 

A little note here, another theater in the metro I track, Showplace Icon in St Louis Park, shut down  thankfully, it was bought up right away by Marcus, but it is closed for now and it will be a bit before it opens back up. That meant a loss of 285 tickets, which is not nothing. Not as grave as Alamo closing down, but it does mess with the numbers a bit.

[abracadabra1998]

9 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Maybe Talk to Me? That was another cinephile interest horror that went immediately wide

 

 

 

Yep, I will have that at T-4!

[Unfitclock]

@abracadabra1998 do you have any lost city or ticket to paradise comps I feel like those would probably be good fir fly me to the moon

[Unfitclock]

@filmlover is fly me to the moon early access still looking good near you?

[abracadabra1998]

5 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@abracadabra1998 do you have any lost city or ticket to paradise comps I feel like those would probably be good fir fly me to the moon

Nope  those are the more female-oriented comps I have sadly. Anyone but You is probably the best one of mine 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@filmlover is fly me to the moon early access still looking good near you?

Yep. Some decently full theaters (keep in mind though it's not getting the biggest auditoriums due to Despicable Me and the other holdovers still making money keeping the biggest ones).

[el sid]

It seems that my theaters are no outliers when it comes to MaXXXine.

 

First, the presales from yesterday:

It had counted yesterday for Friday 852 sold tickets.

Up decent 47% since Monday. 

The comparison numbers - I chose films which probably did not have big walk-ups, namely Firestarter, The First Omen, The Invitation and The Exorcist: Believer - were between 6.8M-10M+ true Friday which of course is still misleading. 

I had no Friday numbers for X (440k from previews/1.35M true Friday/4.3M OW) but it had on Wednesday for Thursday 214 sold tickets.

And Pearl (? from previews/1.3M OD/3.1M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday 161 sold tickets = x5.29 for MaXXXine. 

 

So far so good.

Edited Thursday at 06:18 PM by el sid

[el sid]

But...

MaXXXine counted today for tomorrow had 940 sold tickets. 

Up meager 10.5% since yesterday (I didn't expect a giant jump because the presales are already very good but ~ 10% is especially for a horror film a bit concerning).

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Firestarter (1.2M true Friday) had 144 sold tickets = 7.85M. 

The Invitation (1.8M true Friday) had 204 = 8.3M. 

Prey for the Devil (2.14M true Friday) had 262 = 7.7M. 

Nope (13.1M true Friday) had 2.964 = 4.15M. 

And Thanksgiving (2.8M true Friday) had 349 sold tickets = 6.75M. 

 

X (440k from previews/1.35M true Friday) had on Thursday for Thursday 316 sold tickets (unfortunately I have no Friday number but the presales for Pearl were pretty much the same, namely 196 on Thursday for Thursday respectively 195 on Thursday for Friday) = ~ 4M true Friday for MaXXXine.

And Pearl (? from previews/1.3M OD) had 195 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday = x4.82 for MaXXXine = ~ 4.15M true Friday if it had a similar preview number.

Pearl also had no big final jump back then (21%) despite having way lower presales than MaXXXine. 

 

Well, it has somewhat come down to earth. But still, the presale number is definitely very good. On the one hand the series now has a fan base that buys in advance but OTOH it has a wider appeal now so walk-ups overall should be better than for X and Pearl. 

So I say ~ 4M true Friday and ~ 10M OW. 

Edited Thursday at 07:13 PM by el sid

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27483	33616	6133	18.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

137

 

T-22 Comp

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.55		168	8947		0/329	31963/40910	21.87%		21117	29.04%		24.68m
L&T	121.21		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	36.16%		35.15m
BP2	103.11		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	36.51%		28.87m
AM3	154.72		119	3964		0/235	28592/32556	12.18%		10475	58.55%		27.08m
GOTG3	203.48		105	3014		0/206	26655/29669	10.16%		10750	57.05%		35.61m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1391/12925  [10.76% sold]
Matinee:     376/4469  [8.41% | 6.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:              675/6799  [9.93% | 11.01% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          3100/11526  [26.90% | 50.55% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        130 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    130 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

It’s fascinating how D&W has stayed consistent with daily sales for TROS and Captain Marvel in Sacro.

Edited Thursday at 07:47 PM by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

It’s fascinating how D&W has stayed consistent with daily sales for TROS and Captain Marvel in Sacro.

I was actually thinking of that for a some time, it's been suspiciously consistent. Are those columns somehow being affected by the D&W sale number @Porthos

Edited Thursday at 07:49 PM by Menor the Destroyer

[TheFlatLannister]

For my fellow trackers who use Selenium to collect presales data, is there any clever way y'all have found to circumvent Fandango flood control? It's been difficult collecting data these past few days with the "not found" flood control nonsense on Fandango.

[Porthos]

42 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

It’s fascinating how D&W has stayed consistent with daily sales for TROS and Captain Marvel in Sacro.

 

39 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

I was actually thinking of that for a some time, it's been suspiciously consistent. Are those columns somehow being affected by the D&W sale number @Porthos

 

That's not what those columns are saying.  It's saying that those are the DP3 sales at the theaters I tracked for Captain Marvel and the theaters I tracked for TROS.  I suppose it could be clearer, but it's for the people who already have the daily sales info for CM and TROS and want to do their own compare/contrasts.

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

That's not what those columns are saying.  It's saying that those are the DP3 sales at the theaters I tracked for Captain Marvel and the theaters I tracked for TROS.  I suppose it could be clearer, but it's for the people who already have the daily sales info for CM and TROS and want to do their own compare/contrasts.

Why dont you add those 2 to the comps as well with caveats 🙂

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why dont you add those 2 to the comps as well with caveats 🙂

 

Because xtra work makes Papa Porthos Pissy?

alliteration, for the win!

====

 

Okay, the real reason is that the last time I looked, even TROS was still a lol bad comp (in the undershoot direction).  Mostly though my market has changed *a lot*in the last five-plus years.   Plus the standard caveat that the shelf-life of a comp is probably three years in the best of cases, and having a year and a half BLIP thanks to the 'rona makes it an even worse comp.

 

And on and on and on.

 

I might think about something as we're finally getting to the point where it might matter, at least where it comes to Caprain Marvel (TROS will be a lol bad comp until probably T-7 or maybe even later).  But then we also have ATP hikes + Sacramento probably taking a larger share of the DOM market than before.  And so on and so on and so on.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Okay, the real reason is that the last time I looked, even TROS was still a lol bad comp (in the undershoot direction). 

 

Like, I just glanced at it right now, and a TROS-equivalent sold comp spits out 17.4m unadj.

 

Which... No.

 

(yes yes, "let reddit know")

 

Captain Marvel is actually semi-reasonable at 34.3m unadj.  But that unadjusted does a LOT of work as it'll rise to something like 39m to 40m after reasonable-ish ATP adjusting.

 

Still... Maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Captain Marvel.  TROS?  Not a chance.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Like, I just glanced at it right now, and a TROS-equivalent sold comp spits out 17.4m unadj.

 

Which... No.

 

(yes yes, "let reddit know")

 

Captain Marvel is actually semi-reasonable at 34.3m unadj.  But that unadjusted does a LOT of work as it'll rise to something like 39m to 40m after reasonable-ish ATP adjusting.

 

Still... Maaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Captain Marvel.  TROS?  Not a chance.

it makes sense that SW was way more frontloaded. It did not bump that much in the final week. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it makes sense that SW was way more frontloaded. It did not bump that much in the final week. 

 

While the MCU got much much much more frontloaded as it matured as a fandom, at the time SW was still the undisputed king of the mega fan rushes (outside of cases where capacity reared its head like Endgame).  TROS had late reviews (as was standard for Saga SW films), but the lukewarm social media reaction + the tepid reviews certainly didn't help matters here in the final few days.