The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Maaatt]

Im really interested in seeing how Longlegs  walkups go given how impressive its presale run has been. I’m still gonna be cautious with my expectations though given this is a Neon title & not a major studio release.
 

Being from Neon alone usually would mean this is a fairly niche movie & some screen capacity limitations even if the movie takes off with audiences. It also means a limited marketing spend but the marketing for this movie has been so good all year with Neon really showing a way to maximize the impact of its P&A campaign, even as the total spend is likely far lower then what you see with most nationwide releases from  the Hollywood majors. Its right up there with movies like Smile, the Dark Knight & the Blair Witch Project in terms of effective viral marketing campaigns.  That said, you can see in tracking a lot of the general audience is not aware of this movie, especially those who are not very online so i do wonder if walkups will underperform relative to the presales. Horror is usually a walkup friendly genre but this could perform more like a typical cinephile movie, though i do think the buzz around the movie extends beyond typical cinephiles and to major horror fans, but some of the reviews about “deliberate pacing” & it being a “slow burn” make me concerned some of these fans will be disappointed, specifically the fans of more  mainstream horror (while those who like the A24 elevated horror type movies I have little doubt will like/love this).

 

On a positive note my concerns about screens and capacity constraints given its from Neon have been somewhat alleviated as this week has progressed as at least near me more showtimes are being added, including going into larger auditoriums with more capacity and some theaters i don’t recall seeing any times for last weekend now have the show and based on posts above it seems that has been the case across much the country. After Maxxxine last week where good presales did not translate to walkups thats still in the back of mind, but i dont think we’ll see anything quite that bad even worse case scenario (this is an original, not the third movie in a little seen trilogy for one thing). I think its worth remembering this even getting into the low teens would be a major win, that would easily double Neons best opening in its entire history, which we just had with Immaculate (I know some here were disappointed by that opening and said pointing to its indie studio was “making excuses” but the fact of the matter is a Neon movie is different then a Disney or Universal movie, its not fair to expect them to perform like them). Anyways, just some thoughts, Ive gone on for way too long Im sorry! 

[TheFlatLannister]

21 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

This is Thursday only right? No EA?

I never track EA unless specifically stated. 

 

P.S. I will probably never track EA, just confuses comps and throws things off. I wouldn't even know how to extrapolate that data. 

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal Local

 

Fly Me To The Moon: 27/984 (3pm) 38/984 (6:30pm)

7 tickets for Friday (4 showings) (no change)
 

COMPS

Anyone But You: $2.94m
Argyle: $1.47m
Joyride: $1.48m
Love Again: $1.14m

Last XMas: $1.5m

 

Tossing out the Christmas release outlier - Avg: $1.4m

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

ALIEN: ROMULUS

 

Thursday 

 

T-35

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
459	820	94099	0.87%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

(0.768x) of Quiet Place One $5.22M

 

35 days out, this is a pretty good start

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal Local

 

LONGLEGS: 198/1024 (3pm)  274/1024 (7pm)
 (4 showings)

Thursday (2 to 4 showings) +125%

Friday (6 showings) 182 tickets for +152%

Saturday: 6 showings) 67 tickets

 

COMPS

AQP3: $7.2m (PG-13)
The Watchers: $7m (PG-13)

Scream: $5.24m  (PG-13)

Friday Night Freddys:  $5.39m (PG-13)
Furiosa: $5.02m (R)
Strangers: Chapter 1:  $7.2m (R)

Insidious: $6.35m (R)

Talk To Me:  $5.36m (R)

Halloween Kills: $5.78m (R)

Saw X:  $3.27m (R)

Candyman: $8.82m (R)

Dune 2:  $11.83m (PG-13)

 

Yeah, it exploded some more - just 2 fewer tickets than Dune 2.  Not sure how to extrapolate this since it has fewer showings for Previews & the weekend.  Theaters should be adding shows though for Friday and the w/e

 

PG-13:  $6.21m  

R: $6m

All:  $6.04m

All- Dune 2:  $5.52m

 

Edited July 11 by TalismanRing

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	T-0	Jax	5	20	18	46	1,405	3.27%
		Phx	7	29	15	51	2,287	2.23%
		Ral	8	31	21	97	2,929	3.31%
	Total		20	80	54	194	6,621	2.93%
Longlegs	T-0	Jax	5	13	142	353	1,024	34.47%
		Phx	7	24	94	385	1,844	20.88%
		Ral	7	20	133	372	1,410	26.38%
	Total		19	57	369	1,110	4,278	25.95%
Twisters	T-7	Jax	5	57	6	143	9,841	1.45%
		Phx	7	36	5	127	6,843	1.86%
		Ral	8	45	11	135	6,354	2.12%
	Total		20	138	22	405	23,038	1.76%
Twisters (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	11	37	227	2,391	9.49%
		Phx	1	2	4	21	618	3.40%
		Ral	2	2	4	47	412	11.41%
	Total		8	15	45	295	3,421	8.62%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.338x (1.28m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .44x (944k)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .686x (773k)

 - Joy Ride - 1.848x (1.93m)

 - Massive Talent - .738x (613k)

 - Lost City - .283x (724k)

 - Ungentlemanly - 1x (850k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .284x (773k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.07m

Growth model forecast - 760k

 

Joy Ride is really pulling up the average here.  Personally I'm expecting around 800k-850k for previews, with EA around 1m.  Really similar opening to Ungentlemanly Warfare, but with two days of EA instead of one. 

 

Longlegs T-0 adjusted comps

 - Black Phone - 1.64x (3.67m)

 - Strangers - 3.17x (3.2m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3.02x (3.67m)

 - Crawdads - 1.15x (2.35m)

 - Old - 3.38x (4.52m)

 

7pm horror comps

 - Smile - 5.52x (8.07m)

 - Boogeyman - 5.55x (5.55m)
 - Halloween Kills - .613x (2.65m)

-  Candyman - 2.15x (3.63m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.67m

Growth model forecast - 3.95m

 

Only +50% dropped it a little, but still a great day.  It has been +227% over the last three days, which is right in line with Candyman (+227%) and Old (+228%).  Candyman finished with +80% in same day sales while Old jumped 101%.  I don't think this can double up today with limited shows, and 80% might be tough as well.  I'm sitting right at 3.5m currently.

 

Twisters (Total) T-7 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 3.167x (9.98m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .901x (8.12m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.304x (8.6m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .795x (5.2m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.468x (6.46m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .635x (5.58m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Total) - .178x (3.51m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.68m

 

Another solid day of +10%! 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	1-Hr	Jax	5	20	78	124	1,405	8.83%
		Phx	7	29	49	100	2,287	4.37%
		Ral	8	31	90	187	2,929	6.38%
	Total		20	80	217	411	6,621	6.21%
Longlegs	1-Hr	Jax	5	13	180	533	1,024	52.05%
		Phx	7	24	134	519	1,844	28.15%
		Ral	7	23	316	688	1,554	44.27%
	Total		19	60	630	1,740	4,422	39.35%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 2.22x (2.13m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .47x (1.01m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .928x (1.05m)

 - Joy Ride - 2.045x (2.13m)

 - Massive Talent - .958x (796k)

 - Lost City - .41x (1.05m)

 - Ungentlemanly - 1.36x (1.16m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .373x (1.01m)

All comedy - 1.12m

All PG-13 - 917k

All 3pm previews - 948k

All movies - 975k

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.27m

Growth model forecast - 1.05m

 

Well, there seems to be some convergence right back at 1m for Thursday only.   +112% today was better than all comps!

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Fly Me to the Moon	299.03%	59.22%	-	111.86%
Arthur the King	112.64%	60.92%	-	27.59%
No Hard Feelings	506.94%	61.81%	-	98.19%
Paradise	207.64%	61.81%	-	56.54%
Joy Ride	272.22%	16.67%	20.00%	91.43%
TUWoMT	213.14%	-	-	63.12%
Lost City	187.39%	38.97%	21.13%	46.21%
Ungentlemanly	205.05%	51.52%	29.17%	55.67%
Jungle Cruise	235.98%	45.43%	26.26%	61.58%

 

Longlegs T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Black Phone - 1.51x (3.38m)

 - Strangers - 3.23x (3.25m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Crawdads - 1.34x (2.75m)

 - Old - 2.64x (3.52m)

 

7pm horror comps

 - Smile - 4x (5.85m)

 - Boogeyman - 4.36x (4.36m)
 - Halloween Kills - .698x (3.01m)

-  Candyman - 1.87x (3.17m)

All horror - 4.11m

All R horror - 4.09m

All 7pm previews - 3.4m

All movies - 3.52m

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.89m

Growth model forecast - 4.69m

 

Strangers looks like the closest tracking, followed by Black Phone.  This really hasn't let up despite the occupancy ratio.  For me, this looks like a 3.3m preview.

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Longlegs	245.24%	48.81%	-	56.76%
Smile	-	-	-	116.42%
Black Phone	259.69%	50.94%	32.48%	70.27%
The Strangers	261.74%	41.61%	39.08%	54.00%
Knock at the Cabin	-	31.53%	25.18%	-
Crawdads	127.82%	44.37%	30.70%	33.95%
Boogeyman	259.46%	-	-	99.50%
Halloween Kills	123.99%	-	-	37.58%
Candyman	355.88%	48.53%	-	79.88%
Old	400.00%	59.09%	-	101.22%

 

[keysersoze123]

As shows have started in east coast Longlegs is at 58267/158601 861202.70 1472 shows. They did add many shows even today, way more than norm. Let us see where things are later this evening. 

 

Fly me was at 14430. But that includes lots of walkups as shows did start at 3PM. I am expecting this to miss 1m in previews minus early numbers  but I did not track early numbers and so have no clue what will be reported. 

[DAJK]

Do we know how many theaters are playing Longlegs previews tonight? Because if the 4 theaters I’m tracking for it tonight, only 1 is even playing it tonight. The three others all don’t start until tomorrow.

[Flip]

On 7/6/2024 at 9:12 PM, Flip said:

Deadpool 3 (T-19) 11 days of sales

 

36 showtimes/1375 tix sold (+169) 

 

1.9x Bad Boys 4 (T-0) [10.59m]

22.54x Twisters (T-19) [???]

10.5x Quiet Place Day One (T-19) [71.37m]

 

 

None of these comps are good so take them with a grain of salt

Deadpool 3 (T-14) 5 days of sales

 

36 showtimes/1494 tix sold (+119) 

 

12.66x Bad Boys 4 (T-10) [73.4m]

21.69x Twisters (T-14) [???]

10x Quiet Place Day One (T-15) [68m]

 

 

None of these comps are good so take them with a grain of salt. I think in the end Bad Boys will be the best since it overindexed 

[Flip]

Twisters Friday (T-8)

 

16 showtimes/91 tix sold

 

no comps yet but I’d be surprised if True Friday ends up under 10m 

[AniNate]

I should hope it wouldn't

[Manny G]

6 hours ago, HowSway said:

Stock holders care. We're not that far removed from Disney having a proxy board fight because a major stock holder was unhappy they were spending too much money on streaming. In a high interest era, Money isn't cheap anymore. Stockholders are not going to be happy watching apple burn hundreds of millions of dollars on a non core business when they are losing market share in their biggest market.

Stock holders know what type of company they’re investing into. Disney is an experience and media company with a $175 Billion market cap,  Apple is a tech company with a Market cap of $3.5 TRILLION. Their media division is nothing but a trap to the greater Apple ecosystem. No one cares that they lose $200M on a movie or two when not only said movies bring them attention but also they core business TECH brings in roughly $100BILLION a year.

 

totally wrong comparison 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-15) - 222228/1286216 4059459.20 7914 shows +3323

 

MTC2 Previews - 101072/530279 1474124.64 3942 shows // +4660 in 3 days

 

Now only 82 shows errored out(2k ish tickets). So more theaters are coming online/  

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-14) - 225916/1288803 4121395.50 7915 shows +3688

Friday - 116677/1494156 2178011.80 8318 shows 

MTC2 Previews - 103232/579945 1561868.66 4378 shows

 

[TheFlatLannister]

Deadpool seems to have 1am-5am showings on Friday. It's technically not Previews, but it is listed under the Thursday tab on fandango.

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Deadpool seems to have 1am-5am showings on Friday. It's technically not Previews, but it is listed under the Thursday tab on fandango.

Any shows before morning shows start including Friday 6AM are always part of previews. Its always that way. 

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Deadpool seems to have 1am-5am showings on Friday. It's technically not Previews, but it is listed under the Thursday tab on fandango.

 

Those technically are listed under previews.   I think after 6am they get listed under the new day.  IIRC the last Harry Potter started this.  I knows SW and the last couple of Avengers had 1am, 3am etc previews.

[thajdikt]

Is the demand really huge enough for it to warrant such night screenings?? Did MoM or NWH have such screenings? Would most just go to a earlier screening or early friday morning

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

7 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Is the demand really huge enough for it to warrant such night screenings?? Did MoM or NWH have such screenings? Would most just go to a earlier screening or early friday morning

MOM and Endgame did. NWH I don’t recall but I’d be surprised if it didn’t.

[misterpepp]

5 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Harold and the Purple Crayon on sale July 25

 

Damn, y'all really didn't care about this one! 😂

[AniNate]

More interested in when the September movies go on sale tbh