Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[ThomasNicole]

21 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

And I’d say any chance of box office profitability is officially dead with a DOM haul of only 155 or so. 

 

My God you just can’t get over this. This movie is obviously in a position right now where it’s simply impossible to know if it’s profitable or not. What we do know is that it’s not the colossal bomb you said it was for weeks while ignoring it’s great legs DOM and phenomenal legs OS.
 

With 500M worldwide (which is still on track to get it) without big share from China, it all depends if the marketing budget was too expensive or not for it to be profitable, even if barely. We’ll only know for sure by next year.
 

This proclaims of “it won’t be profitable because i said so” when it comes to this movie is really bizarre at this point.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Pretty sure that article puts to rest what Disney thinks of Elemental's performance regardless if it breaks even theatrically.

[Eric is Quiet]

Moderation

 

We're done with this "go woke go broke" discourse. Have no idea what we're going on about, but it's clearly not leading anywhere.

[MightyDargon]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

 

I believe he was talking about worldwide numbers.

China is only 25 percent to the studio so it doesn't count like a "normal" country. Meaning China itself probably isn't enough to make Meg actually impressive. Dial/Flash DID underperform badly internationally so he is right on that.

[kayumanggi]

 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

My God you just can’t get over this. This movie is obviously in a position right now where it’s simply impossible to know if it’s profitable or not. What we do know is that it’s not the colossal bomb you said it was for weeks while ignoring it’s great legs DOM and phenomenal legs OS.
 

With 500M worldwide (which is still on track to get it) without big share from China, it all depends if the marketing budget was too expensive or not for it to be profitable, even if barely. We’ll only know for sure by next year.
 

This proclaims of “it won’t be profitable because i said so” when it comes to this movie is really bizarre at this point.

Elemental is a film that is poised to be extremely valuable on D+ so a run that just gets more or less to breakeven will definitely make it profitable. Won't exactly be touted as a massive win by disney but like, this is fine. And getting there through a good leggy run into later staying power is obviously more valuable than with a mixed reception film.

[PlatnumRoyce]

3 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

China is only 25 percent to the studio so it doesn't count like a "normal" country. Meaning China itself probably isn't enough to make Meg actually impressive. Dial/Flash DID underperform badly internationally so he is right on that.

Meg's a Chinese co-production so Meg 2 stakeholders are getting a pretty normal ~45% of revenue. 

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

China is only 25 percent to the studio so it doesn't count like a "normal" country. Meaning China itself probably isn't enough to make Meg actually impressive. Dial/Flash DID underperform badly internationally so he is right on that.

 

Sorry, what am I missing here? You had said MEG: THE TRENCH wouldn't make 170M like THE DIAL OF DESTINY. I said, the original post was probably referring to worldwide numbers and not domestic ones.

 

What is not clear?

[ringedmortality]

So Elio is definitely making at least Brave numbers right

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So Elio is definitely making at least Brave numbers right

 

Some competition should move. KUNG FU PANDA IV is still there.

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

My God you just can’t get over this. This movie is obviously in a position right now where it’s simply impossible to know if it’s profitable or not. What we do know is that it’s not the colossal bomb you said it was for weeks while ignoring it’s great legs DOM and phenomenal legs OS.
 

With 500M worldwide (which is still on track to get it) without big share from China, it all depends if the marketing budget was too expensive or not for it to be profitable, even if barely. We’ll only know for sure by next year.
 

This proclaims of “it won’t be profitable because i said so” when it comes to this movie is really bizarre at this point.

I’m really tired of you consistently putting words in my mouth I never said, especially when you know moderation has asked me to stop replying to people on this. It’s very clear what you’re trying to do, and it’s incredibly annoying to have trolls on this forum like that. 
 

TLDR never said it was a colossal bomb, and never said it wouldn’t be profitable outside of box office. You should also learn how important DOM share is to profitability, .75x the budget before even marketing requires a pretty huge OS compensation. Yes I could be wrong about it breaking even at the box office, but it is unlikely to. 

Edited August 7, 2023 by MovieMan89

[kayumanggi]

 

[Scubasteve716]

9 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

China is only 25 percent to the studio so it doesn't count like a "normal" country. Meaning China itself probably isn't enough to make Meg actually impressive. Dial/Flash DID underperform badly internationally so he is right on that.

You seem to be confused Meg is not a normal production and was coproduced by a Chinese studio. It’s getting more than 25% from China

[ThomasNicole]

Meg 2 did fine afterall i’m surprised, very excited to watch it, the awful reviews just made me more curious 

 

Mutant Mayhem seems well positioned to do strong 300M or so and i’m very glad to see another animation pulling strong numbers this year 

 

Barbie seems locked to destroy Mario at the biggest movie of the year which i’m very happy with it because while they’re both toy movies, Barbie is actually good 

 

Oppenheimer seems locked for +800M, insane run

[ThomasNicole]

I don’t get the discourse of overrated around EEAAO. Why exactly?
 

The movie have very good reviews but not exactly groundbreaking, there was movies with far better consensus nominated at the Oscars last year like Tar or Banshees Of Inisherin.
 

It did won a bunch of Oscars but as we all know they don’t really care about quality and EEAAO is objectively a far better movie than something like Green Book or King Speech, so not much reason to be upset about this awards as well.
 

And finally, it’s because the movie ended up with a very loud fanbase? Because i really think it’s funny to perceived something as overrated because it’s fans treat it like the second coming of Christ.
 

Nearly every online fan is like that. Go ask a Marvel fan and they’ll treat EndGame the same way, it’s just what it is, doesn’t mean everyone thinks the same.

[kayumanggi]

11 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’m really tired of you consistently putting words in my mouth I never said, especially when you know moderation has asked me to stop replying to people on this. It’s very clear what you’re trying to do, and it’s incredibly annoying to have trolls on this forum like that. 
 

TLDR never said it was a colossal bomb, and never said it wouldn’t be profitable outside of box office. You should also learn how important DOM share is to profitability, .75x the budget before even marketing requires a pretty huge OS compensation. Yes I could be wrong about it breaking even at the box office, but it is unlikely to. 

Look, my post about this movie and my reading of how you talk about it constantly is written and i won’t just repeat it again and enter a void.
 

But let’s talk about your complains here. You claim people put words in your mouth and the mods are pressuring you to not answer. 
 

Honestly, talking about me … when i feel so many people is twisting my intentions or mods are trying to make me shut up, i usually try to think that maybe i’m just phrasing it real bad. You know, when so many people say the same thing about my behavior, maybe it’s true and i’m actually the wrong one. 
 

I’m not trying to do anything here, i just gave one single response on this thread to one of your many posts about the same subject, from what i know this is a forum, we’re discussing, are you sure i’m the one trolling?

Idk man, think about. 

 

[1Robert1]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Barbenheimer can win with Avatar TWOW

[LonePirate]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Oppenheimer seems locked for +800M, insane run

$800M total worldwide would put the film second behind Joker for highest global grossing R-rated film ever (I think). International numbers have been running about 50% ahead of domestic ones and the gap is widening every week. The film probably has at least $80M-$100M more in the tank domestically so $200M-$250M remaining WW seems likely with China being a huge unknown. It needs $244M to reach $800M. It might just be able to do it considering a resurgence and IMAX re-release around awards season is almost a certainty.