Taylor Swift || The Eras Tour Concert Film - October 13, 2023 | Comes to Disney+ w/ 5 bonus songs

[vale9001]

a movie like spider man 28 days before the release has new clips released. Some actor interviews on a magazine, new news about the movie etc...

 

so at this point it's normal the pre sales are not as strong as a spider man movie. It's not like they don't want to promote it but i mean i don't know what you can do to promote a concert so many days before the release. 

 

What i'm trying to say we really don't know how walk ups gonna be in the end. The fact right now the sales are stationary tell us of course te hardcore fans already bought the tickets. Now the point is how many casual viewers can be interested to buy the ticket the same day they're gonna watch this. It's a concert, it's not gonna have the broader audience of a super hero movie but i think the "gp audience" will be big anyways. if 55M are the pre sales of the weekend i think 130-140M are a good goal.

If the presales of the weekend are 65M 150-160M are a good goal. I don't see it making more than this. 

[dobrevv]

apparently showing in uk cinemas

 

[harry713]

Are there any comps for films that only played Thurs/Fri through Sunday? Are there any other films that released with a weekend-only schedule? Curious if this creates a stronger than normal Sunday due to it being unavailable the following days. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

24 minutes ago, harry713 said:

Are there any comps for films that only played Thurs/Fri through Sunday? Are there any other films that released with a weekend-only schedule? Curious if this creates a stronger than normal Sunday due to it being unavailable the following days. 

 

Not that I'm aware.

[WorkingonaName]

They should add pay it forward tickets to this if they want $200M. 

[BOfficeStats]

13 hours ago, dobrevv said:

apparently showing in uk cinemas

 

It no longer appears on the Cineworld website.  I think it was an error.

[Gavin Feng]

No fucking way

 

Quote

The Eras Tour

AMC Theatres / Variance Films

October 13, 2023

Opening Weekend Range: $96M-$145M

 

Quote

Top Opening Weekends (OCT)

 

Rank	Release	Opening	% of Total	Theaters	Average	Total Gross	Wide Date	Distributor

1	Joker	$96,202,337	28.7%	4,374	$21,994	$335,451,311	Oct 4, 2019	Warner Bros.
2	Venom: Let There Be Carnage	$90,033,210	42.2%	4,225	$21,309	$213,550,366	Oct 1, 2021	Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE)
3	Venom	$80,255,756	37.6%	4,250	$18,883	$213,515,506	Oct 5, 2018	Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE)
4	Halloween	$76,221,545	47.8%	3,928	$19,404	$159,342,015	Oct 19, 2018	Universal Pictures
5	Black Adam	$67,004,323	39.8%	4,402	$15,221	$168,152,111	Oct 21, 2022	Warner Bros.
6	Gravity	$55,785,112	20.4%	3,575	$15,604	$274,092,705	Oct 4, 2013	Warner Bros.
7	No Time to Die	$55,225,007	34.3%	4,407	$12,531	$160,891,007	Oct 8, 2021	Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM)
8	The Martian	$54,308,575	23.8%	3,831	$14,176	$228,433,663	Oct 2, 2015	Twentieth Century Fox
9	Paranormal Activity 3	$52,568,183	50.5%	3,321	$15,829	$104,028,807	Oct 21, 2011	Paramount Pictures
10	Jackass 3D	$50,353,641	43%	3,081	$16,343	$117,229,692	Oct 15, 2010	Paramount Pictures

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

No fucking way

 

It could end up more than doubling Joker's OW. 

[Eric Prime]

 

[jeffthehat]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

*completely* anecdotal, but thought I would throw it out there anyways. I happened to see a lot of friends and family over the weekend due to attending a number of events. 
 

It seems that within most of my friends and family group, the women and gay men are interested in seeing The Eras Tour, but most have not bought tickets yet because they are planning on going with friends groups who haven’t decided which weekend works best for them yet. It seems to be treated more like a concert-going event experience than say a regular movie event. Maybe the “non-refundable” nature is giving pause to some people and making them wait and see what their availability will be. 
I’m not convinced yet that there aren’t a lot of sales still to come. 
 

Just my real life experience to share. Take it for what it is. 

 

@VanillaSkies replying here to avoid clogging the tracking thread. 

 

Buy yeah, my experience is similar. I go to the movies like 30 times a year and have never bought tickets more than a couple days in advance. I do this because I don't see a reason to block out my schedule for something I can see almost any time of day. My friends and family are similar. 

 

Might be extrapolating too much from anecdotal evidence, but my hunch is that late sales are determined more by buying habits than interest, even for something like this. Others might know better though. 

 

Also, I saw Haunting in Venice today at my local and there wasn't a single promo item for Eras. And this theater is 40% sold out on opening night already lol 

[HummingLemon]

<$100M ow? lmao

[Chaz]

She sold over a million albums in a week last year. Not streamed, SOLD. In 2022. 
 

This tour is going to be the first billion dollar tour. 
 

The movie will do $180 million+ opening weekend. No question.

[vale9001]

5 hours ago, Chaz said:

She sold over a million albums in a week last year. Not streamed, SOLD. In 2022. 
 

This tour is going to be the first billion dollar tour. 
 

The movie will do $180 million+ opening weekend. No question.

 

more than albums sold (nowadays the physical market is more made for collectors, so they make multi covers, multi versions of albums, multiformats (vinyls, cassettes, cds etc..) to let hardcore fans to buy more copies, what should be more interesting is to focus on this tour. It should have sold like 3.5M-4M tickets in the US leg. So you just need this alone (not even someting more) to make 100M with its ATP.

Edited September 18, 2023 by vale9001

[FunkMiller]

Does anyone seriously think this isn't going to make over 150m OW?

 

There will be thousands of Swifties going to see it two or three times. The repeats alone will be insane.

 

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by FunkMiller

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, FunkMiller said:

Does anyone seriously think this isn't going to make over 150m OW?

 

There will be thousands of Swifties going to see it two or three times. The repeats alone will be insane.

 

 

 

I have not moved from my opening day 1st hour presale thoughts - $100M-$150M DOM OW.  So, yes?:)

Edited September 18, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[AntiJon]

It will be released in Brazil november 3

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, AntiJon said:

It will be released in Brazil november 3

Releasing the film 6 days before the first concert in the country seems unlikely. It will be a very curious choice if it’s true.

[AntiJon]

19 minutes ago, XXR&#x27;s Eras Tour said:

Releasing the film 6 days before the first concert in the country seems unlikely. It will be a very curious choice if it’s true.

 

The first show in brazil is 11/17. The show of day 9 is in Argentina

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, AntiJon said:

 

The first show in brazil is 11/17. The show of day 9 is in Argentina

 

Ahh right. Which is even more to my point. Releasing the film 2 weeks before the concerts seems unusual. 

[Porthos]

On 9/18/2023 at 4:43 AM, FunkMiller said:

Does anyone seriously think this isn't going to make over 150m OW?

 

There will be thousands of Swifties going to see it two or three times. The repeats alone will be insane.

 

 

 

Some folks have been spooked taken note of the low daily sales during the bottom end of the typical "U curve", so... Yes?

 

I personally am in the TET OW > Barbie OW club but it isn't the slam dunk it looked to be at the beginning of pre-sales.

 

The main Open Questions, IMO, more or less in order of importance are:

 

• How much does the GA actually care about a concert film?
• How willing are Swifties to buy garbage tickets for less desirable seats or show times?
• How much promotion is this actually gunna get?
• How much does FOMO on seeing it the OW with other hardcore Swifties versus seeing at a leisurely pace later in the run matter?
• How much will no MTW actually matter, especially for the opening weekend?

 

There's also the eternal question about showtime allocation, but I tend to think that one will sort itself out in due time, if only because of the possibility of a monster weekend.

 

There's a push/pull dynamic going on, in other words.  Right now, emphasis on right now, most of the available seats on Friday are being passed over due to a variety of reasons, with "not desirable" being at the top of the list.  However, it's also a case of interest as Sat/Sun isn't moving all that much, either (did a check last night on that very question).

 

So it then becomes a question of promotion.  This doesn't have a studio PR firm with a(n alleged) time honored strategy concerning promotion.  Taylor Swift could wake up one day and just decide to start blaring out announcements on social media, or she might just view it as a side gig.  AMC might decide to pop for a lot of traditional advertising, or maybe they concentrate on their own chain.  Who knows what type of PR rollout this is going to get when all is said and done.

 

This will probably get a good (or even large) amount of promotion as this gets closer to release.  But that very uncertainty is causing, justifiably IMO, some level of caution over TET's OW prospects.  At least compared to the euphoric reactions to the first few days of sales.