Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[Youngstar]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I still would not be surprised if it was all forced upon the creatives (execs: come up with a buzz spinoff for us and do it fast). 

According to wikipedia that's not true:

Quote

Development on Lightyear began following the production of Finding Dory (2016). After co-directing Finding Dory with Andrew Stanton, Angus MacLane was allowed to pitch the idea of making a Buzz Lightyear film, having always wondered what movie Andy Davis saw in the original Toy Story (1995) to get interested in a Buzz Lightyear action figure. MacLane, a science fiction fan, had felt attracted to the character of Buzz since he started working at Pixar, feeling that the film's story was very "personal" for him, whose favorite movie since childhood had been Star Wars (1977). An aspect present in the Toy Story films that Lightyear explores is Buzz's disagreement over the nature of reality, which, coupled with his heroic ideals, made an amalgam of sci-fi clichés that MacLane intended to make more than just a punchline.

 

[Eric S'ennui]

4 hours ago, emoviefan said:

 

I am really pulling for Argyle also. I think it has potential. They could have just dumped it. But Universal came onboard and they putting a real marketing effort behind it.

Big issue for Argylle is that these kinds of Bullet Train-style action comedies all get boosted by having some big A-list actor leading the production. Ryan Reynolds, Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum, Brad Pitt. Fall Guy's probably going to do strong money with both Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling fresh off his biggest hit ever. Argylle's big headlining actor is...*checks notes* Sam Rockwell. That's not exciting enough.

[keysersoze123]

Wish was reported to have 60% greater presales than Elemental. Still it barely did over Elemental 3 day over its 5 day holiday opening !!!

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Youngstar said:

According to wikipedia that's not true:

 

Fair, but also worth noting no one is ever going to officially report “and the execs came to us demanding we come up with an idea…” etc 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wish was reported to have 60% greater presales than Elemental. Still it barely did over Elemental 3 day over its 5 day holiday opening !!!

Rotten for WDAS is a death sentence. Pixar too for that matter, probably not a coincidence Elemental opened so pathetically when it was rotten for a stretch pre release. 

[Barnack]

Pixar brain trust is extremely strong and the line between creative and exec will not be that clear, stanton, docter, etc...

[emoviefan]

52 minutes ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Big issue for Argylle is that these kinds of Bullet Train-style action comedies all get boosted by having some big A-list actor leading the production. Ryan Reynolds, Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum, Brad Pitt. Fall Guy's probably going to do strong money with both Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling fresh off his biggest hit ever. Argylle's big headlining actor is...*checks notes* Sam Rockwell. That's not exciting enough.

And I am going to go with a good movie will win out if it is marketed well.    If WOM is good it pretty much has all of Feb to itself until Dune 2 opens and takes the IMAX screens away. But I will not  stand for  the Sam Rockwell slander.  But yes to agree with  you The Fall Guy will make a lot of money. There is a reason they moved that to the summer kick off date. Gosling and Blunt both  hot off Barbenheimer 

Edited November 26, 2023 by emoviefan

[JediJones]

The average Rotten Tomato score for 2023 Disney movies with budgets of $100M or more is only 60.5%. Barely fresh, and a step down from even the last two years.

 

The superhero movie which The Marvels appears to be tracking closest to now in daily grosses is Birds of Prey. Looks like it won't be finishing far off from that one's $205M WW gross, and won't make $100M domestic.

  

59 minutes ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Big issue for Argylle is that these kinds of Bullet Train-style action comedies all get boosted by having some big A-list actor leading the production. Ryan Reynolds, Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum, Brad Pitt. Fall Guy's probably going to do strong money with both Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling fresh off his biggest hit ever. Argylle's big headlining actor is...*checks notes* Sam Rockwell. That's not exciting enough.

 

The overall ensemble cast looks like one of the best lineups in 2023 though. And it's Henry Cavill's first big movie since M:I Fallout. Cavill is one of the most underused actors in Hollywood relative to how popular he is. Men find him a credible action star and women swoon over him.

 

Problem is the movie cost $200M, and no movie in this action/comedy genre has been able to justify that kind of budget in a long time, if ever. The trailer also ends with a CGI cat, and CGI cats are the last things that anyone wants to see in a movie. We know that now more than ever. Too bad the trailer couldn't keep the fairly grounded feel it had up until that final shot.

Edited November 26, 2023 by JediJones
Discussed other movie.

[joaqs]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Bad expansion PTA for The Holdovers too. 

It went wide last week, added 100 theaters this weekend and still increased its gross. It's def connecting with its audience and on track to go above 20 mil which would be a pretty respectable total.

[JimmyB]

I can't believe The Fall Guy is going to kick off the summer movie season.  The Fall Guy might do Bullet Train numbers opening weekend. A list of movies that kicked off the Summer movie season.

 

2023: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2022: Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness
2019: Avengers: Endgame
2018: Avengers: Infinity War
2017: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
2016: Captain America: Civil War
2015: Avengers: Age of Ultron
2014: The Amazing Spider-Man 2
2013: Iron Man 3
2012: The Avengers
2011: Thor
2010: Iron Man 2
2009: X-Men Origins: Wolverine
2008: Iron Man
2007: Spider-Man 3
2006: Mission: Impossible 3
2005: Kingdom of Heaven
2004: Van Helsing

[emoviefan]

25 minutes ago, JediJones said:

The average Rotten Tomato score for 2023 Disney movies with budgets of $100M or more is only 60.5%. Barely fresh, and a step down from even the last two years.

 

The superhero movie which The Marvels appears to be tracking closest to now in daily grosses is Birds of Prey. Looks like it won't be finishing far off from that one's $205M WW gross, and won't make $100M domestic.

  

 

The overall ensemble cast looks like one of the best lineups in 2023 though. And it's Henry Cavill's first big movie since M:I Fallout. Cavill is one of the most underused actors in Hollywood relative to how popular he is. Men find him a credible action star and women swoon over him.

 

Problem is the movie cost $200M, and no movie in this action/comedy genre has been able to justify that kind of budget in a long time, if ever. The trailer also ends with a CGI cat, and CGI cats are the last things that anyone wants to see in a movie. We know that now more than ever. Too bad the trailer couldn't keep the fairly grounded feel it had up until that final shot.

Yep the cast is one of the best of the year  and it is pretty crazy that this is Cavill's biggest movie since Fallout. He is so underused. But You think even  if this movie gets good reviews and all that follows  people are going to go nope a CG cat at the end of the  1st trailer not going to see it. Come on.

[robertman2]

45 minutes ago, JediJones said:

The average Rotten Tomato score for 2023 Disney movies with budgets of $100M or more is only 60.5%. Barely fresh, and a step down from even the last two years.

 

The superhero movie which The Marvels appears to be tracking closest to now in daily grosses is Birds of Prey. Looks like it won't be finishing far off from that one's $205M WW gross, and won't make $100M domestic.

  

 

The overall ensemble cast looks like one of the best lineups in 2023 though. And it's Henry Cavill's first big movie since M:I Fallout. Cavill is one of the most underused actors in Hollywood relative to how popular he is. Men find him a credible action star and women swoon over him.

 

Problem is the movie cost $200M, and no movie in this action/comedy genre has been able to justify that kind of budget in a long time, if ever. The trailer also ends with a CGI cat, and CGI cats are the last things that anyone wants to see in a movie. We know that now more than ever. Too bad the trailer couldn't keep the fairly grounded feel it had up until that final shot.

Cavill is nowhere near as popular as some people online act like he is. It's basically exclusively contained to Redditors and Snyder fans

[MovieMan89]

26 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

I can't believe The Fall Guy is going to kick off the summer movie season.  The Fall Guy might do Bullet Train numbers opening weekend. A list of movies that kicked off the Summer movie season.

 

2023: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2022: Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness
2019: Avengers: Endgame
2018: Avengers: Infinity War
2017: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
2016: Captain America: Civil War
2015: Avengers: Age of Ultron
2014: The Amazing Spider-Man 2
2013: Iron Man 3
2012: The Avengers
2011: Thor
2010: Iron Man 2
2009: X-Men Origins: Wolverine
2008: Iron Man
2007: Spider-Man 3
2006: Mission: Impossible 3
2005: Kingdom of Heaven
2004: Van Helsing

Kingdom of Heaven is the only remotely comparable one, and even that may look like a blockbuster next to Fall Guys. 

[JediJones]

32 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yep the cast is one of the best of the year  and it is pretty crazy that this is Cavill's biggest movie since Fallout. He is so underused. But You think even  if this movie gets good reviews and all that follows  people are going to go nope a CG cat at the end of the  1st trailer not going to see it. Come on.

Good reviews will definitely help. I just think people are looking for grounded comedies. Not things that get too silly. Comedy tends to be funnier when it keeps it feet firmly planted in the real world, and doesn't include things that can't happen in real life (unless it's a flat-out parody movie). I think this movie could be fairly successful, but not when you take into account its $200M budget. It basically has an extremely similar premise to Lost City, about a female writer who gets caught up in games of life and death because powerful people think her books hold secrets to the real world. This movie will probably be better directed, but Lost City itself was fairly well-received and made just under $200M. Also, the title of this movie doesn't contain the hook in it, which presents a marketing problem.

 

Granted, this is apparently an Apple TV co-production, and we know streaming productions have inflated budgets due to paying out all of the talent fees upfront instead of on the backend. So, if it makes as much as Lost City, we might be able to get away with calling it a success. Vaughn's top gross as a director is just over $400M, which would be only approaching breakeven for a movie at this budget. So the studios probably aren't expecting this to break even theatrically by normal standards.

Edited November 27, 2023 by JediJones

[Claire of Themyscira]

The only thing keeping me from watching Argylle is Henry's heinous wig. Like, why?

[MysteryMovieMogul]

32 minutes ago, robertman2 said:

Cavill is nowhere near as popular as some people online act like he is. It's basically exclusively contained to Redditors and Snyder fans

And as far as Snyder fans are concerned, they just want to see him in more Snyder films. A comedy from the director of Kick Ass isn't going to pique their interest enough to make a big dent.

[emoviefan]

21 minutes ago, JediJones said:

Good reviews will definitely help. I just think people are looking for grounded comedies. Not things that get too silly. Comedy tends to be funnier when it keeps it feet firmly planted in the real world, and doesn't include things that can't happen in real life (unless it's a flat-out parody movie). I think this movie could be fairly successful, but not when you take into account its $200M budget. It basically has an extremely similar premise to Lost City, about a female writer who gets caught up in games of life and death because powerful people think her books hold secrets to the real world. This movie will probably be better directed, but Lost City itself was fairly well-received and made just under $200M. Also, the title of this movie doesn't contain the hook in it, which presents a marketing problem.

 

Granted, this is apparently an Apple TV co-production, and we know streaming productions have inflated budgets due to paying out all of the talent fees upfront instead of on the backend. So, if it makes as much as Lost City, we might be able to get away with calling it a success. Vaughn's top gross as a director is just over $400M, which would be only approaching breakeven for a movie at this budget. So the studios probably aren't expecting this to break even theatrically by normal standards.

Yes I think with this, Killers, and Nappy Apple is showing that paying through the nose is not a issue for them. I just want this to be a fun early year movie that does well at the Box office removing the budget from the equation which Apple seems to be doing because they can  not be expecting to make their money back.  God knows there is not much else to look forward to until Dune 2 in early 2024.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

17 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I just want this to be a fun early year movie that does well at the Box office removing the budget from the equation which Apple seems to be doing because they can  not be expecting to make their money back.

They're expecting to gain subscribers, though. And between KotFM, Napoleon, and Argyle, I don't think they're going to get an equivalent amount of subscribers to equate for how much that was spent on all three films.

[M37]

2 hours ago, JimmyB said:

I can't believe The Fall Guy is going to kick off the summer movie season.  The Fall Guy might do Bullet Train numbers opening weekend. A list of movies that kicked off the Summer movie season.

 

2023: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2022: Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness
2019: Avengers: Endgame
2018: Avengers: Infinity War
2017: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
2016: Captain America: Civil War
2015: Avengers: Age of Ultron
2014: The Amazing Spider-Man 2
2013: Iron Man 3
2012: The Avengers
2011: Thor
2010: Iron Man 2
2009: X-Men Origins: Wolverine
2008: Iron Man
2007: Spider-Man 3
2006: Mission: Impossible 3
2005: Kingdom of Heaven
2004: Van Helsing

Disney has had their MCU flag firmly planted on that first May weekend since 2010, opening a film in all but one (non-pandemic) year. And even before then it was a CBM (Marvel) highlighted weekend, with only that 2005-06 stretch not having one in the top spot going (all but 2 making at least $85M) back to the OG Spider-Man in 2002. But scheduling changes, Deadpool 3 movies, and we get a Spring movie in Fall Guy going instead

 

Fall Guy does feel to me in that Bullet Train/Lost City range, ~$35M OW / $100M+ total

 

I mean, for consistency, it could have been Marvels instead ... but that wouldn't change the level much

[ListenHunnyUrOver]