Weekend Thread | The Boy and The Heron $12.97M, Godzilla -1.0 $8.59M

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Kon said:

 

I don't understand your examples of 2003. These movies weren't driven by nostalgia (unless you consider a pretty recent movie as nostalgia). The closer is LOTR, but I don't think the brand was so mainstream before the movies.

 

The point about nostalgia hits in 2023 is that movie audience seems to be only interested into movies belonging to a strong nostalgic IP. If the big hits in 2023 didn't belong to a brand, the movies wouldn't reach that level.

 

For example: Barbie could have good quality in writing, but it would likely be a big success even it played extremely safe (like Mario). That's because the promotion on the brand really called attention from the people.

 

I used the 2003 movies as random examples why you could explain their success with nostalgic reasons as well. In my mind, those examples make no sense with that argument, thats the whole point 😄 their successes cant be explained that way and the same (in my opinion), albeit to a lower degree - goes for many of the 2023 movies. I firmly believe that Barbie didnt gross 600M DOM for nostalgic reasons alone and i dont even think its OW was inflated purely by nostalgic reasons alone. Nostalgia was a big factor among many others - the novelty factor of having a live-action Barbie movie, the perfect casting in Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, the natural hype and buzz that was built up by the marketing as well as ofc the Barbenheimer meme - i just find it incredibly narrow to look at that movies success and say: "Its just because it was a nostalgic toy commerical".

[Mulder]

If Barbie only made money because of how beloved the toy is, then Battleship should've been massive.

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

The clear impression I got from the reviews is that critics disliked that Disney was essentially congratulating itself with this movie.

 

A lot of them felt the nostalgia play was too on the nose and there was literally nothing else going for it besides that, as the story was predictable and the songs were mostly just decent, without a clear break out (a couple of them have heavy rotations in my house though). 

 

Yeah, this is what I mean. In better circumstances maybe it's all seen more as "charmingly throwback". And clearly some areas are seeing it that way given it's performing on par with Moana in Europe and Mexico

Edited December 10, 2023 by AniNate

[M37]

Here are the 20 highest grossing films so far this year: 

 

Barbie, Mario, ATSV, GOTG3, Oppy, TLM, AMWQ, JW4, SoF, ERAS, Indy 5, MI7, Tran:ROTB, Creed III, Elemental, Fast X, FNAF, HG:BoSS, TMNT, Scream VI

 

I think the common thread there is less nostalgia, but familiarity, straight up sequels or a well established brand/IP, or with the director (Nolan) or the star (ERAS). I’ve bolded the only 2 that were originals, and each of those got there with smaller openings and WOM/legs (and some secondary level of comfort with the studio)

 

To me, it’s yet another sign of a more discerning selective casual theatrical audience, less willing to invest the money and time and take a chance on something new, when there is so much original content available from streaming. And even some of those big brand names weren’t enough on their own to be really successful, without some level of quality or “freshness” to warrant the investment 

Edited December 10, 2023 by M37

[Arlborn]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Here are the 20 highest grossing films so far this year: 

 

Barbie, Mario, ATSV, GOTG3, Oppy, TLM, AMWQ, JW4, SoF, ERAS, Indy 5, MI7, Tran:ROTB, Creed III, Elemental, Fast X, FNAF, HG:BoSS, TMNT, Scream VI

 

I think the common thread there is less nostalgia, but familiarity, straight up sequels or a well established brand/IP, or with the director (Nolan) or the star (ERAS). I’ve bolded the only 2 that were originals, and each of those got there with smaller openings and WOM/legs (and some secondary level of comfort with the studio)

 

To me, it’s yet another sign of a more discerning casual theatrical audience, less willing to invest the money and time and take a chance on something new, when there is so much original content available from streaming. And even some of those big brand names weren’t enough on their own to be really successful, without some level of quality or “freshness” to warrant the investment 

Is discerning the right word here though? I always associated discerning with good quality, but isn't this less about quality and more about, as you put it, familiarity?

 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Is discerning the right word here though? I always associated discerning with good quality, but isn't this less about quality and more about, as you put it, familiarity?

 

I suppose selective would be more apt 

[M37]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

Here are the 20 highest grossing films so far this year: 

 

Barbie, Mario, ATSV, GOTG3, Oppy, TLM, AMWQ, JW4, SoF, ERAS, Indy 5, MI7, Tran:ROTB, Creed III, Elemental, Fast X, FNAF, HG:BoSS, TMNT, Scream VI

 

I think the common thread there is less nostalgia, but familiarity, straight up sequels or a well established brand/IP, or with the director (Nolan) or the star (ERAS). I’ve bolded the only 2 that were originals, and each of those got there with smaller openings and WOM/legs (and some secondary level of comfort with the studio)

 

To me, it’s yet another sign of a more discerning casual theatrical audience, less willing to invest the money and time and take a chance on something new, when there is so much original content available from streaming. And even some of those big brand names weren’t enough on their own to be really successful, without some level of quality or “freshness” to warrant the investment 

Big IP sequels have always dominated the top of the box office, but even compared to 10 years ago when the top 20 included:

 

3) Frozen, 6) Gravity, 14) Croods, 15) The Heat, 16) We’re the Millers, 17) American Hustle, 19) Conjuring, 20) Identity Thief (and quite a few more over $100M down to #35)

 

Comedies have fallen off a cliff, dramas and family films are way down, actors are no longer a draw on their own, and it’s now only the big, familiar IPs - “event films” - that can get large numbers of people into theaters. Yes, nostalgia helps, but only if the film feels fresh & modern (TGM) and not a stale rehash (Indy 5)

[eeetooki]

55 minutes ago, M37 said:

Here are the 20 highest grossing films so far this year: 

 

Barbie, Mario, ATSV, GOTG3, Oppy, TLM, AMWQ, JW4, SoF, ERAS, Indy 5, MI7, Tran:ROTB, Creed III, Elemental, Fast X, FNAF, HG:BoSS, TMNT, Scream VI

 

I think the common thread there is less nostalgia, but familiarity, straight up sequels or a well established brand/IP, or with the director (Nolan) or the star (ERAS). I’ve bolded the only 2 that were originals, and each of those got there with smaller openings and WOM/legs (and some secondary level of comfort with the studio)

 

To me, it’s yet another sign of a more discerning selective casual theatrical audience, less willing to invest the money and time and take a chance on something new, when there is so much original content available from streaming. And even some of those big brand names weren’t enough on their own to be really successful, without some level of quality or “freshness” to warrant the investment 

 

Yeah I know Nolan's known to do a lot of non-IP work after TDK trilogy but his name in itself is basically an IP/brand.

[filmlover]

Too much of the moviegoing audience has been lost since the pandemic (just look at the annual grosses from 2000-2019 compared to post-2020) and maybe isn't ever returning, the brief sign of hope in 2022 is shaping up to be a fluke. If the box office blues this holiday season extends to next year and all the big spring titles like Dune 2 (some of the predictions for this that have been going around have really been setting themselves up for disappointment), Ghostbusters, Godzilla x Kong, etc. all really miss expectations then I don't think there will be much room for debate about the state of moviegoing in a post-COVID world.

[AniNate]

I mean 2023's box office is already well ahead of 2022's total. There has been significantly more volume this year though, so I guess a lot more big bombs to parse through. Barbenheimer and Mario obviously have helped things out a lot.

 

Wonka is looking like a solid hit at least. Critic and audience reception out of Europe for Migration is also looking very good so hopefully that can leg out to some nice totals.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2023 by AniNate

[cannastop]

8 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

Was any hit this year nostalgic? 

 

8 hours ago, Bob Train said:

I think people conflate success with nostalgia.

Sure.

Spider-Man. Barbie. Mario.

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

the brief sign of hope in 2022 is shaping up to be a fluke.

which was Top Gun 2? I mean we had some hits this year too. I dunno if the box office will ever recover to the pre pandemic levels though.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Too much of the moviegoing audience has been lost since the pandemic (just look at the annual grosses from 2000-2019 compared to post-2020) and maybe isn't ever returning, the brief sign of hope in 2022 is shaping up to be a fluke. If the box office blues this holiday season extends to next year and all the big spring titles like Dune 2 (some of the predictions for this that have been going around have really been setting themselves up for disappointment), Ghostbusters, Godzilla x Kong, etc. all really miss expectations then I don't think there will be much room for debate about the state of moviegoing in a post-COVID world.

 

Well probably have to adjust our own expectation to this new norm as well. There will be fewer and fewer great box office weeks on a yearly basis and as a consequence, the market will probabyl continue to shrink going foward since the new generations are growing up with streaming and thus dont care for the cinema experience anymore apart the occasional meme-driven phenomenon like Barbenheimer.

[filmlover]

Just now, cannastop said:

which was Top Gun 2? I mean we had some hits this year too. I dunno if the box office will ever recover to the pre pandemic levels though.

A more diverse amount of hits across genres. This year the only true surprise breakout was a movie that brought out a crowd that wants zero to do with Hollywood and reasonable to assume have no plans to return to a movie theater in foreseeable future.

[Bob Train]

Just now, filmlover said:

A more diverse amount of hits across genres. This year the only true surprise breakout was a movie that brought out a crowd that wants zero to do with Hollywood and reasonable to assume have no plans to return to a movie theater in foreseeable future.

2022 was a worse year than 2023. There were 22 weeks under 100m in 2022. In 2023 there were 6. And there were surprise hits like Mario, Barbenheimer, FNAF, TET etc.

[AniNate]

I do think the fact that two Japanese imports are leading the domestic box office this weekend is pretty remarkable. Perhaps the future of the exhibition industry is leaning into more cultural diversity in their film selection. The Indian film industry also gaining a significant hold in the market share.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Here are the 20 highest grossing films so far this year: 

 

Barbie, Mario, ATSV, GOTG3, Oppy, TLM, AMWQ, JW4, SoF, ERAS, Indy 5, MI7, Tran:ROTB, Creed III, Elemental, Fast X, FNAF, HG:BoSS, TMNT, Scream VI

 

I think the common thread there is less nostalgia, but familiarity, straight up sequels or a well established brand/IP, or with the director (Nolan) or the star (ERAS). I’ve bolded the only 2 that were originals, and each of those got there with smaller openings and WOM/legs (and some secondary level of comfort with the studio)

 

To me, it’s yet another sign of a more discerning selective casual theatrical audience, less willing to invest the money and time and take a chance on something new, when there is so much original content available from streaming. And even some of those big brand names weren’t enough on their own to be really successful, without some level of quality or “freshness” to warrant the investment 

Fwiw, audiences have been craving the familiar since forever, it's just that the familiar used to be the actors so we had a lot more variety and original stuff

 

The transition to IP has been very much pushed by the studios though, so they've made their bed and now they can lie in it

[ZeroHour]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I do think the fact that two Japanese imports are leading the domestic box office this weekend is pretty remarkable. Perhaps the future of the exhibition industry is leaning into more cultural diversity in their film selection. The Indian film industry also gaining a significant hold in the market share.

I think a lot of the future is probably event films for niche audiences. For both Godzilla and The Boy and the Heron there is a small but very passionate audience who are as excited about these films as anyone was for Barbenheimer. Doesn’t really help adult dramas, comedies, or family films though. 

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, ZeroHour said:

I think a lot of the future is probably event films for niche audiences. For both Godzilla and The Boy and the Heron there is a small but very passionate audience who are as excited about these films as anyone was for Barbenheimer. Doesn’t really help adult dramas, comedies, or family films though. 

hmm IDK. With Oppenheimer I was excited because so many other people were excited (and because it looked like a cool movie). But with Boy and the Heron I just knew Hayao Miyazaki's work from his other movies.

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

2022 was a worse year than 2023. There were 22 weeks under 100m in 2022. In 2023 there were 6. And there were surprise hits like Mario, Barbenheimer, FNAF, TET etc.

The writing was on the wall for all of these well before they opened heh.

 

This year really lacked a Smile or a The Lost City or a Bullet Train, etc.