Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[Speedorito]

21 minutes ago, YM! said:

I can’t say Migration didn’t have effort. It had 4 big trailers, either attached to big events like Mario or in the selection for hits like Barbie and The Eras Tour, or just attached to Trolls 3. In addition to that it had big play on the Thanksgiving Float broadcast event on NBC. In both my Marcus theaters, Migration not only got promotion in the snack area and soda cups but posters. Disney only did two trailers for Elemental vs the customary three for an animation, hide the romance in the marketing and dropped the ball marketing until the last month when they realized tracking was poor.

Seriously, to say Migration had little marketing just to hype up Illumination is silly. Maybe the marketing wasn’t creative or appealing, but there was a lot of it.

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I actually thought it was gonna do well 

 

 

 

 

The 13-15m OW has been expected for awhile, that’s why I was saying 20 woulda been really impressive when I thought it was that. Always came down to legs with it, but I’m a lot less confident with “meh” critical reception. Also noting that critics are dead wrong about Illumination audience reception more often than not, so that’s also entirely possible

Edited December 23, 2023 by MovieMan89

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

I just had a beautiful baby girl yesterday.

 

Came here to see how bad aquaman 2 flopped 

 

Loll

Congratulations on the child!

[MovieMan89]

Migration currently with near identical critical reception to both of the Sings, which did very well with audiences over holidays, so we still can’t rule out huge multi here 

[SpiderByte]

Migration seems like a bunt of an animated kids movie. Like if you asked an AI to make "generic animated family film". Neither bad nor particularly interesting.

[Cmasterclay]

Felt alot about Poor Things like I did about EEAAO - a ton of great performances, good jokes, and impressive technical stuff all thrown together in a big bowl that didn't quite connect with me.

[Krissykins]

25 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I wonder what happens when Christmas legs meets B- word of mouth

Well last year Babylon got a C+ and did 5.1x

 

Whitney got an A and did just a bit less, at 5x 

 

So my guess answer would be… absolutely nothing 😅

[YM!]

Think Migration should get to 100m. There’s nothing from now until KFP4. Will say this original animation had a rough year this year. Ruby Gillman gave DWA the excuse to outsource and did under 30m domestic, Wish’s domestic total is going under Coco’s five day OW, Sony Animation has nothing in the chamber and Paramount has given up on theatrical originals.
 

Even the two hits like Elemental and Migration had drawbacks. Migration should do over the 100m mark and if kids like it I think it’ll do 120s maybe even to 150m and probably around 300-350m WW, which is small potatoes for Illumination. Though Elemental blew up on the Plus, first animated original since Coco to cross 150m, had the strongest summer animation legs since Shrek and 155/496 is respectable enough with ancillaries, it is one of the smallest Pixar movies. What we really need is a Turning Red/Encanto to see if originals are dead but it’s not a good sign.

[MovieMan89]

I will forever be salty about Encanto not being a year later, I can’t even express. That was going 450+ DOM in a normal climate, istg 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I will forever be salty about Encanto not being a year later, I can’t even express. That was going 450+ DOM in a normal climate, istg 

I wouldn’t say 450m but both it and Turning Red in 2022 slots, think they’d do 200m domestic with ease. Encanto maybe even closer to 250m.

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, YM! said:

I wouldn’t say 450m but both it and Turning Red in 2022 slots, think they’d do 200m domestic with ease. Encanto maybe even closer to 250m.

Frozen adjusts to like 550 in 2022, Encanto was a complete pop culture juggernaut for awhile once the streaming sensation happened. That kind of WOM in healthy theatrical would have easily gone to 400 in 2022 prices, again there’s just no way 

 

It would have been further bolstered by how much teens and young adults got into it as well, I’d argue more so than Frozen. Could have been true 4 quad. Also no offense, but suggesting the same BO as Turning Red in a healthy climate is completely ludicrous when Encanto’s pop culture footprint was irrefutably and immeasurably larger.

Edited December 23, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

I will never get over the 2022 streaming numbers for Encanto. They are pure insanity. More impressive than Frozen’s 2013 DOM box office run quite honestly 

[dallas]

Encanto definitely would've been huge. Like $1B would've been a definite possibility.

[YM!]

28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It would have been further bolstered by how much teens and young adults got into it as well, I’d argue more so than Frozen. Could have been true 4 quad. Also no offense, but suggesting the same BO as Turning Red in a healthy climate is completely ludicrous when Encanto’s pop culture footprint was irrefutably and immeasurably larger.

I’m not denying Encanto’s popularity. Or saying Turning Red is on the same level. Box office isn’t the only equation to the formula. Feel like Encanto would’ve pulled strong numbers in 2022, assuming it got Strange World’s spot probably something like Moana’s five day and a total around 270m-ish like a smaller Up, but think like Moana it’d have a second wind once it hit the home media market vs theatrical.

[AniNate]

Was a big relief to see Dreamworks officially announce Wild Robot for next year, that seems like it could be a significant boon to new IP ambitions.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, Torontofan said:

I just had a beautiful baby girl yesterday.

 

Came here to see how bad aquaman 2 flopped 

 

Loll

Oh that’s sweet congrats for you and your partner, enjoy 

[ThomasNicole]

For all the talk about how D+ made good movies being non-existent in pop culture because they feels irrelevant without theatrical releases, it amazes me how every week we ended up discussing Soul / Luca / Turning Red / Encanto 

 

I really think at this point people do love and remember these movies, we just don’t have box office data to support this 

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

My updated prediction for Aquaman 2 is $100M DOM; $150M OS; $50M China --> $300M WW

At this point i feel you drop at least a dozen predictions this week for this movie and they all keeps coming in the same range of 250M-ish, give it or take a few millions 

 

 

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Torontofan said:

I just had a beautiful baby girl yesterday.

 

Came here to see how bad aquaman 2 flopped 

 

Loll

Congrats! I have two girls; parenthood is an extremely rewarding journey so enjoy! 😀

 

But I wouldn't wish any movie to flop especially after being a parent - tend to be more open and less critical about things especially this movie somewhat focuses on newborn + parenthood. Also wishing a movie to flop is like hoping someone's child doesn't do well in exams..

 

I hope every opener over this period surprises to continue to boost the dwindling theatrical business

Edited December 23, 2023 by TigerPaw

[TigerPaw]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

At this point i feel you drop at least a dozen predictions this week for this movie and they all keeps coming in the same range of 250M-ish, give it or take a few millions 

 

 

He shoud update his username to Black Manta because he can't let go of Aquaman 2; keep updating his BO prediction, RT critics prediction and cinemascore prediction. It is getting seriously hilarious. 😂 

Edited December 23, 2023 by TigerPaw