NEW YEAR weekend

[M37]

18 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Migration's following Ferdinand's patterns in 2017 more or less, but that movie started crashing after New Year's while Puss didn't, so that will be the big test for Mig. Sing 2 really collapsed after New Year's, though I do feel like that was more frontloaded during the holiday season than Migration has been.

Would keep in mind that the 2021-22 holiday period coincided with a pretty big COVID wave, that appears to have limited business somewhat from Xmas onward and pushed demand later into January. I’ve mostly put an * for that year and don’t rely on it when projecting future releases 

[Borobudur]

40 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

THG number plz

 

9.) Hunger Games – Songbirds & Snakes (LG) 1,660 (-849) theaters Fri $1.1M (-8%) 3-day $3M (-1%) 4-day $3.78M Total $160.7M/Wk 7

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Would keep in mind that the 2021-22 holiday period coincided with a pretty big COVID wave, that appears to have limited business somewhat from Xmas onward and pushed demand later into January. I’ve mostly put an * for that year and don’t rely on it when projecting future releases 

But Snowstorm affected PIB2 OW too, and weren't we expecting some spillover effect from OW to 2nd weekend? So in a way PIB2 had a inflated 2nd weekend. Still, Migration managed to match it or may come slightly better.   

[AniNate]

Specifically seems what really spelled the end for Ferdinand was 80%+ weekly drops for the 1/8-1/11 weekdays. The worst case for Migration would be following the rest of Ferdinand's run out verbatim, which would mean barely missing out on $100mil. I don't think theaters will be compelled to drop it as soon as they did Ferdinand though because it is earning more money and doesn't have any significant competition while Ferdinand had Paddington 2 opening.

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

Specifically seems what really spelled the end for Ferdinand was 80%+ weekly drops for the 1/8-1/11 weekdays. The worst case for Migration would be following the rest of Ferdinand's run out verbatim, which would mean barely missing out on $100mil. I don't think theaters will be compelled to drop it as soon as they did Ferdinand though because it is earning more money and doesn't have any significant competition while Ferdinand had Paddington 2 opening.

Also Ferdinard opening is one week earlier than Migration, leading to holiday season. So the retention through mid-January should be way better.

[AniNate]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

Would keep in mind that the 2021-22 holiday period coincided with a pretty big COVID wave, that appears to have limited business somewhat from Xmas onward and pushed demand later into January. I’ve mostly put an * for that year and don’t rely on it when projecting future releases 

 

I mean, Sing 2 isn't really a great example of that. It also had made more than half its final take by New Year's Day. I think its audiences were more or less in the same "fuck it" mode as No Way Home's was. If Migration did follow Sing 2's pattern post New Year, that would put it at around a $110mil total, not much higher than the Ferdinand projection.

[Borobudur]

 

 

Quote

 

Sony – $955M (+13% from 2022)
Paramount – $837.4M (-35% from 2022)

Lionsgate – $580.4M (+623% from 2022)

Amazon MGM – $270.3M (+164% from 2022)

Variance (propelled by AMC concert pics Taylor Swift: Eras Tour and Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce) – $216.4M

Angel Studios – $207.8M

A24 – $137.2M (+15% from 2022)

 

 

Other notes on 2023:

 

Quote

AMC Theatres lead all exhibitors –of course, they are the No. 1 circuit– with $2.1 billion (+23% from 2022). Regal as second with $1.4 billion, +16% vs. 2022. Cinemark is third with also $1.4 billion, +22% from 2022. The AMC Burbank will be the highest grossing theatre in the U.S. with around $22M in ticket sales, +25% over last year. AMC Empire is the second-highest grossing location with $19.5M (+37% over 2022).

 

Quote

Los Angeles was the top market for moviegoing with around $715M+ (8% total market share) per industry stats with New York City area second with $590M+ in ticket sales (6.6% total market share).  Dallas was an amazing third with $271M+ in ticket sales (3% total market share). 

 

[narniadis]

35 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Specifically seems what really spelled the end for Ferdinand was 80%+ weekly drops for the 1/8-1/11 weekdays. The worst case for Migration would be following the rest of Ferdinand's run out verbatim, which would mean barely missing out on $100mil. I don't think theaters will be compelled to drop it as soon as they did Ferdinand though because it is earning more money and doesn't have any significant competition while Ferdinand had Paddington 2 opening.

That would be normal for most family leaning films. The week of 1/1-1/7 in this calendar is still a holiday for a big % of schools. Then on 1/8 99% of schools are back so Migration will have a drop that day alone of 80%+ from Sunday and at least the same from 1/1 since it was NYD. 

 

And yes, as noted above Ferdinand was also 1 full week later into its run. Means that it has less contracted space to keep on top of the back to school lag. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by narniadis

[narniadis]

Wealth is spread around, but you can definitely feel the lack of punch that comes from the lack of a massive film. We had been spoiled the last 7-8 years. 

Very much reminds me of Decembers in the past. 

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

That would be normal for most family leaning films. The week of 1/1-1/7 in this calendar is still a holiday for a big % of schools. Then on 1/8 99% of schools are back so Migration will have a drop that day alone of 80%+ from Sunday and at least the same from 1/1 since it was NYD. 

 

That was what made the difference for Puss 2 though. For its 1/6-12 week it only dropped 39% while Ferdinand dropped 55% for 1/5-11. 

[M37]

31 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

I mean, Sing 2 isn't really a great example of that. It also had made more than half its final take by New Year's Day. I think its audiences were more or less in the same "fuck it" mode as No Way Home's was. If Migration did follow Sing 2's pattern post New Year, that would put it at around a $110mil total, not much higher than the Ferdinand projection.

It’s more apparent in the weekly flow for NHW than Sing tbh. Went from “fuck it” mode, a lot of pent up demand exploding, to a rapid drop off before/around New Years, and then very strong legs later in January into February 

 

But that’s why I’m not inclined to use that year for extrapolation, because those circumstances aren’t likely to repeat. Depending on which point is chosen for the comparison will throw off the math 

[AniNate]

Sing 2 is an awkward comparison regardless just because the calendar is way off from Migration's, but it serves as a counterpoint to the Puss 2 comparison. It was a lot more frontloaded and I presume didn't attract the childless adult audience as much. I think you can draw that conclusion at least based on their opening to New Year's Day grosses. Yes, Sing had late legs, but the damage was done with its big weekly drops post New Year. If Omicron had really been that big of an impact, I'd have expected its holiday and January numbers would more closely mirror Puss 2's.

 

I might've guessed an early streaming drop might've been a factor, but it seems it just had the same PVOD deal going Puss had. Also 3000+ theaters kept it until early February, so it wasn't cut down before its time.

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by AniNate

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

A 30% drop means the WOM Is good. Only family movies (Wonka, migration, Trolls) went up.

Anyone but you the adult movie Is doing Better and still made -5%.

 Downsizing, has a C cinemascore, opened to 4.9m in the same period in 2017 and that year has the same calendar layout as 2023. And iron claw is mirroring that movie closely and that means a similar second weekend hold as Downsizing. Not an idea hold I wish to play out like with A- cinemascore out of iron claw. 

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

 

9.) Hunger Games – Songbirds & Snakes (LG) 1,660 (-849) theaters Fri $1.1M (-8%) 3-day $3M (-1%) 4-day $3.78M Total $160.7M/Wk 7

 

YES! Still over 1M daily lets goooo!

[M37]

So family films are difficult to project with accuracy from holidays, as they are particularly sensitive to the calendar layout [for example, even using weekly numbers can throw off the extrapolation] But may have found something ...

 

Using only the Wed after Xmas as the baseline holiday value - no weekend or holiday effects - and calculated the multi for remaining gross from just that single day

• Yogi Bear = 11.26x
• Alvin Chipwrecked = 9.65x
• Monsters U 3D = 11.34x
• Sing = 10.44x
• Ferdinand = 11.29x
• Frozen 2 = 13.10x
• Sing 2 = 13.32x
• Puss in Boots = 25.36x (LOL)

Seems to be a fairly solid range, with one low end and one VERY high outlier. From a $6.26M Wed, having already banked $30M+, Migration is projected for an approximate ~$100-$115M finish.

[Borobudur]

30 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

YES! Still over 1M daily lets goooo!

Tbh, I am little disappointed by the performance over the long holiday. BOSS beat FB1 in 5th weekend and 6th weekend (pre-Christmas weekend). That changed somehow as BOSS start losing out to FB1 in between Dec 25 until now and FB1 actually had a bigger competition back then. 

[AniNate]

Yeah, so honestly Sing 2 doesn't seem like that outlandish a comparison. Think it helps to temper expectations given Puss on the surface seems like the more appropriate one with Migration's similar opening and legs to this point and lack of future competition. But Sing 2 also benefited from an anemic release schedule, so it really does emphasize how extraordinary Puss 2's legs were.

[Valonqar]

18 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Tbh, I am little disappointed by the performance over the long holiday. BOSS beat FB1 in 5th weekend and 6th weekend (pre-Christmas weekend). That changed somehow as BOSS start losing out to FB1 in between Dec 25 until now and FB1 actually had a bigger competition back then. 

 

Too many hot men biting into Tom Blyth's audience. Chalamet, Momoa, Powell, Boat Boys. 

[M37]

Moving this over here for when mods (eventually) lock and change the pinned thread

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, put me in the "highly skeptical" camp when it comes to Twisters, for this and other reasons.

 

The main reason is also related to this:

 

 

 

Twister might very well be one of the poster children for "film that's been on TNT/TBS/whatever forever, but has almost no real cultural legacy".  In the category of "Oh yeah, that film" in film discourse.  Outside of the flying cow, I'm not entirely sure it's remembered all that much by the GA, again outside of "Oh yeah, that film" when prompted.

 

Not only do some films just happen to catch lightning in a bottle, as you've noted on more than one occasion, some films really are "one was enough".  Even back then "one was enough" was a thing.  Next to no sequel hook and self-contained story doesn't exactly lend itself to franchisification (which might be another reason why it didn't hold as much cultural sway over the years).

 

But getting back to the first post of yours I quoted here, "pure" disaster flicks have been... pretty terrible the last ten to fifteen years. The last reasonably successful disaster flick that didn't have a Sci-Fi or Franchise IP angle would be, what, San Andreas?  If so, that's nearly 10 years ago.  Maybe there's another, but scanning the entries for "disaster film" over at Wikipedia, none came to mind.

 

This isn't to say that the disaster flick genre is dead.  I kinda low-key think it isn't.  But the problem for the genre, outside of the shitty schlocky entires recently, is that the "JAMIE WANTS BIG BOOM" itch has been scratched a lot by CBMs and Franchise monster movies starring King Kong and Godzilla and of course the Jurassic World entires (among others).  Even if I expand disaster films to include films with an overt SciFi angle (and I should otherwise ID4 gets nixed), but still cross out franchise entries, the pickings are mighty slim.  Have to probably go back to 2012 to find a really successful disaster flick even with a SciFi angle that wasn't a franchise entry/starter of some sort or another (or wasn't straddling some other genre).  

 

Not that I'm declaring the film DOA.  But I am noting that the film environment of 2024 is not the same as 1996 and that it's got a pretty uphill battle for it.

 

Now for a little fun, I made a few edits 😉

Quote

FWIW, put me in the "highly skeptical" camp when it comes to TOP GUN MAVERICK, for this and other reasons.

 

The main reason is also related to this:

 

TOP GUN might very well be one of the poster children for "film that's been on TNT/TBS/whatever forever, but has almost no real cultural legacy".  In the category of "Oh yeah, that film" in film discourse.  Outside of the beach volleyball scene, I'm not entirely sure it's remembered all that much by the GA, again outside of "Oh yeah, that film" when prompted.

 

Not only do some films just happen to catch lightning in a bottle, as you've noted on more than one occasion, some films really are "one was enough".  Even back then "one was enough" was a thing.  Next to no sequel hook and self-contained story doesn't exactly lend itself to franchisification (which might be another reason why it didn't hold as much cultural sway over the years).

 

But getting back to the first post of yours I quoted here, "pure" military-action flicks have been... pretty terrible the last ten to fifteen years. The last reasonably successful military-action flick that didn't have an historical or Franchise IP angle would be, what, [???]?  If so, that's nearly 10 years ago.  Maybe there's another, but scanning the entries for "military film" over at Wikipedia, none came to mind.

 

This isn't to say that the military-action flick genre is dead.  I kinda low-key think it isn't.  But the problem for the genre, outside of the shitty schlocky entires recently, is that the "JAMIE WANTS BIG BOOM" itch has been scratched a lot by CBMs and Franchise monster movies starring King Kong and Godzilla and of course the Jurassic World entires (among others).  Even if I expand military-action to include films with an overt SciFi angle (and I should otherwise ID4 gets nixed), but still cross out franchise entries, the pickings are mighty slim.  Have to probably go back to Edge of Tomorrow to find a really successful military-action flick even with a SciFi angle that wasn't a franchise entry/starter of some sort or another (or wasn't straddling some other genre).  

 

Not that I'm declaring the film DOA.  But I am noting that the film environment of 2024 is not the same as 1985 and that it's got a pretty uphill battle for it.

 

Spoiler

That was done mostly to prove a point, and that point is not that Twisters will be the next TGM, but rather I do think we should be careful not to discount the "has been in cable rotation forever and has gained awareness if not fans along the way".

 

I do think there was a path for this to be a successful sequel/reboot, in the same vein as - but not on the level of - of Jurassic World or TGM ... but with basically a fresh cast and no real hook, its really just nostalgia in name only, and I don't think that will be enough

 

[Even though I personally will almost certainly be watching it]

 

[Cmasterclay]

Twisters doesn't have the legacy elements to have a 500m+ style mega breakout, but it's still a big budget disaster movie with a brand, a good cast, and a great director. If it's good and well-marketed, it can certainly make alot of money independent of what people think of the original.