Weekend Thread | Argylle 1.7 Previews

[eeetooki]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

OT: In my 2023 rewatch, I watched A Haunting in Venice.  I liked it, but I didn't love it.  Probably a workmanlike B/B- movie.  Tina Fey was miscast - but Michelle Yeoh, even in her smaller role, was dynamite.  I also loved the kid.  The mystery was an Agatha mystery, and held up enough to keep my interest.  It's another movie that could hover in that bottom of the top 25 list, but isn't worthy to fill in spots 1-20...so I guess I'll keep watching to see if I get enough movies worthy of a top 10.

 

It was an enjoyable time for what I wanted, so I'd say a win...

 

I was disappointed that Michelle Yeoh had such a small part but she was definitely amazing in it. The highlight of the movie for me. But overall the movie was kind of flat compared to some of the other Agatha Christie adaptations.

[Krissykins]

I thought A Haunting In Venice was better than Murder and Nile. I thought both of those were pretty dreadful. 
 

It didn’t bother my year end lists though.

[PlatnumRoyce]

8 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

It depends on how strong it's domestically. TLM was able to breakeven on 2.3* thanks to a healthy domestic gross.

 

Aquaman 2 may not be able to breakeven due to its low 125mish  domestic gross.

 

2.5* is the safe bet . 

 

Deadpool 3 ain't going below 650m.

But don't think it's going to do crazy 1bn numbers like some expecting.

 

850m-900m.

 

Not to religitate this, but that's obviously not true. Deadline estimated TLM would break even by using assumptions not shared with other analyses they run on the topic of film profits. Their numbers simply don't make conceptual sense. If TLM broke even, it's on the back of the Disney-specific flywheel(?) based around parks and their ability to leverage the Disney princess brand over the longer term. 

e.g. The Rock's leak/argument to deadline estimated that film's Home Entertainment + Domestic streaming revenue equaled 106M. We know Black Adam was a big performer on home video (9th highest grossing physical media film in the US while TLM didn't even place in the listed top 50 film + TV). TLM overindexed in the US but it wasn't a big home video seller. The DEG TOP 20 ordinal rankings shows 1 week at #1 before being dwarfed by GotG. It probably had a credible home video showing but unless they're assuming a long tail due to the Disney princess brand, I don't see the case for the estimated numbers. Black Adam overindexes on physical media but I don't see any evidence TLM was a home video power. It didn't generate the revenue deadline claimed. 

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/research/2023-top-selling-titles-on-disc/?hilite=top+disc+2023

https://deadline.com/2023/05/little-mermaid-box-office-profit-loss-halle-bailey-1235383099/

https://deadline.com/2022/12/dwayne-johnson-black-adam-box-office-profit-1235191135/

Edited February 5 by PlatnumRoyce

[PlatnumRoyce]

Why did early reports get The Chosen results so wrong? It's the fourth time they went into theaters so I doubt it was lacking good comps.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

I thought A Haunting In Venice was better than Murder and Nile. I thought both of those were pretty dreadful. 
 

It didn’t bother my year end lists though.

 

I still have to watch Murder (it was pulled from all my streaming subs, and I'm too cheap to pay...yet) - it was definitely better than Nile...

[M37]

44 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Why did early reports get The Chosen results so wrong? It's the fourth time they went into theaters so I doubt it was lacking good comps.

Mistake of comping to far more frontloaded finale on this weekend last year rather than previous Ep 1 & 2 releases (plus also the longer running time likely kept Thursday lower and raised multi)

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Not to religitate this, but that's obviously not true. Deadline estimated TLM would break even by using assumptions not shared with other analyses they run on the topic of film profits. Their numbers simply don't make conceptual sense. If TLM broke even, it's on the back of the Disney-specific flywheel(?) based around parks and their ability to leverage the Disney princess brand over the longer term. 

e.g. The Rock's leak/argument to deadline estimated that film's Home Entertainment + Domestic streaming revenue equaled 106M. We know Black Adam was a big performer on home video (9th highest grossing physical media film in the US while TLM didn't even place in the listed top 50 film + TV). TLM overindexed in the US but it wasn't a big home video seller. The DEG TOP 20 ordinal rankings shows 1 week at #1 before being dwarfed by GotG. It probably had a credible home video showing but unless they're assuming a long tail due to the Disney princess brand, I don't see the case for the estimated numbers. Black Adam overindexes on physical media but I don't see any evidence TLM was a home video power. It didn't generate the revenue deadline claimed. 

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/research/2023-top-selling-titles-on-disc/?hilite=top+disc+2023

https://deadline.com/2023/05/little-mermaid-box-office-profit-loss-halle-bailey-1235383099/

https://deadline.com/2022/12/dwayne-johnson-black-adam-box-office-profit-1235191135/

 

Also, those who overemphasize dom gross forget that studios get the largest % only in the first 10 days of dom release not for the whole run. That's why everything is geared towards OW. We like legs but studios would trade legs for 300M OW in a heartbeat cause they get the biggest % then and not 13 or 30 days later. Even if TLM broke even (big if)  it wasn't profitable from the theatrical run due to ridiculous budget (that wasn't on the screen). 

Edited February 5 by Valonqar

[Liiviig 1998]

42 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Also, those who overemphasize dom gross forget that studios get the largest % only in the first 10 days of dom release not for the whole run. That's why everything is geared towards OW. We like legs but studios would trade legs for 300M OW in a heartbeat cause they get the biggest % then and not 13 or 30 days later. Even if TLM broke even (big if)  it wasn't profitable from the theatrical run due to ridiculous budget (that wasn't on the screen). 

I thought  around 50- 55% of  final domestic  gross goes back to the studio. 

40% os china 

China 25% 

 

Using that TLM  about 257-270m revenue moved back to the studio which is already past it's 250m production budget . For marketing . Ancillaries , merchandising will cover that in long run.

 

Yes it's heavy domestic gross definitely helped.  

 

Once again ,some may not realize this . Very few blockbusters are profitable on theatrical alone. 

 

As long as the revenue that comes back to  the studio exceeds it's production budget. It has at the very least breaking even most likely or making a profit depending on how much the amount has exceeded the production budget.

 

You never see trades over harping on the marketing budget.  They are not the most reliable but they have more info so will always  go with the trades.

 

 

Edited February 5 by Liiviig 1998

[Valonqar]

I just don't like when movies like TLM are passed as hits equal to real hits because they are not. breaking even is not Barbie or Oppenheimer success. It's not a hit. I don't care how many dolls TLM sold (my sister has one) it isn't a theatrical hit let alone an undisputed one unlike Barbenheimer that doesn't need Miss Flo toys to appear like success. There's an extreme push to spin this one as success so thank goodness real successes like Barbenheimer and Spiderverse happened to show what it looks like. I get that Disney had a terrible year and TLM and Elemental are the closest to a hit they had after GOTG 3 which was a real hit no Groot Toys Save Us. But they were not hits. 

Edited February 5 by Valonqar

[Eric is Quiet]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I just don't like when movies like TLM are passed as hits equal to real hits because they are not. breaking even is not Barbie or Oppenheimer success. It's not a hit. I don't care how many dolls TLM sold (my sister has one) it isn't a theatrical hit let alone an undisputed one unlike Barbenheimer that doesn't need Miss Flo toys to appear like success. There's an extreme push to spin this one as success so thank goodness real successes like Barbenheimer and Spiderverse happened to show what it looks like. I get that Disney had a terrible year and TLM and Elemental are the closest to a hit they had after GOTG 3 which was a real hit no Groot Toys Save Us. But they were not hits. 

Nobody's saying Little Mermaid's equal to Barbie's success. You're just creating a strawman to start flame wars. So frankly, if you don't like people saying something you disagree with, just ignore it. Because downplaying it the way you do or acting like it's an epic failure doesn't help matters either. Hint hint. 🤷‍♂️

[Valonqar]

It's not an epic falure but it isn't a success. Just calling a spade spade. 

[Kon]

25 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I just don't like when movies like TLM are passed as hits equal to real hits because they are not. breaking even is not Barbie or Oppenheimer success. It's not a hit. I don't care how many dolls TLM sold (my sister has one) it isn't a theatrical hit let alone an undisputed one unlike Barbenheimer that doesn't need Miss Flo toys to appear like success. There's an extreme push to spin this one as success so thank goodness real successes like Barbenheimer and Spiderverse happened to show what it looks like. I get that Disney had a terrible year and TLM and Elemental are the closest to a hit they had after GOTG 3 which was a real hit no Groot Toys Save Us. But they were not hits. 

 

Honestly, the main reason why The Little Mermaid live action is a dissapoinment for Disney is because they clearly expected a lot more from this movie.

 

They invested more money on TLM movie than the Beauty and the Beast or Aladdin, but this movie has the lower box office.

Edited February 5 by Kon

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

Honestly, the main reason why The Little Mermaid live action is a dissapoinment for Disney is because they clearly expected a lot more from this movie.

 

They invested more money on TLM movie than the Beauty and the Beast or Aladdin, but this has the lower box office.

 

They added more to the budget when they saw AWOW. still, underwater effect was a diaster so where did 300M+ (before tax break) go? Also, they expected more from the movie even though the cartoon made less money than other revival cartoons. Just bad management all around.

[misterpepp]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

From what I understand, I believe the TOS do not allow for independent reporting, as ComScore is a third party aggregator and the actual numbers are considered proprietary/private to the distributors (and exhibitors). It’s always been the procedure that studios report their own numbers, and how (estimates or actuals), when (daily or less frequently like A24), or even if they want to

 

Im sure there are similar aggregator services in other industries who would be in a lot of hot water if those earnings numbers (which is what grosses are) were publicly leaked and not reported directly by the company themselves. We’re just used to the custom of immediate & public accounting for movies 

I do agree this is largely the case, but there’s still publicly available numbers on sites like Tribute.ca and, in some cases, the official comScore website’s public weekly rankings that aren’t also over on the aggregates. On another site, I only just today learned the theater count for one of the new wide openers of this week! Perhaps I’m confused why some data is shared over there but not anywhere else (In a stranger case, for instance, Demon Slayer: Swordsmith had a couple weeks worth of data that ended up on the aggregates, but for its later weeks I was only able to find those numbers through Tribute).

 

I guess this is just part of my own personal frustrations. It’s a lot of hunting down numbers rather than everything being in one nice place. 😞

[Kon]

13 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

They added more to the budget when they saw AWOW. still, underwater effect was a diaster so where did 300M+ (before tax break) go? Also, they expected more from the movie even though the cartoon made less money than other revival cartoons. Just bad management all around.

To be fair, TLM animation has a lower box office, because it was the first Renaissance movie. Disney wasn't in a good moment at that point, but TLM put Disney in a better light.

 

In fact, the good reputation of TLM likely helped the future movies to make more on the box office.

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, Kon said:

To be fair, TLM animation has a lower box office, because it was the first Renaissance movie. Disney wasn't in a good moment at that point, but TLM put Disney in a better light.

 

In fact, the good reputation of TLM likely helped the future movies to make more on the box office.

 

Ah OK didn't know that. still, TLM has always been too girly. Not that too girly cannot be an insane hit (Barbie) but being interesting to a secondary audience helps. BatB had a monster and some action to keep boys entertianed between shipper scenes. Aladdin obivously was a boys story with romance for girls. 

Edited February 5 by Valonqar

[filmlover]

Aryglle Flops: Can Apple Spend $200 Million on Box-Office Bombs? (variety.com)

 

The big takeaway is that the budgets for the Clooney/Pitt film, the Tatum/Johansson movie, and Brad Pitt's Formula One project are all reportedly also in the $100-200M range. So, in other words, look for those to be similar loss leaders from Apple given theatrical runs just for the "legitimacy" factor.

[Speedorito]

6 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Not to religitate this, but that's obviously not true. Deadline estimated TLM would break even by using assumptions not shared with other analyses they run on the topic of film profits. Their numbers simply don't make conceptual sense. If TLM broke even, it's on the back of the Disney-specific flywheel(?) based around parks and their ability to leverage the Disney princess brand over the longer term. 

e.g. The Rock's leak/argument to deadline estimated that film's Home Entertainment + Domestic streaming revenue equaled 106M. We know Black Adam was a big performer on home video (9th highest grossing physical media film in the US while TLM didn't even place in the listed top 50 film + TV). TLM overindexed in the US but it wasn't a big home video seller. The DEG TOP 20 ordinal rankings shows 1 week at #1 before being dwarfed by GotG. It probably had a credible home video showing but unless they're assuming a long tail due to the Disney princess brand, I don't see the case for the estimated numbers. Black Adam overindexes on physical media but I don't see any evidence TLM was a home video power. It didn't generate the revenue deadline claimed. 

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/research/2023-top-selling-titles-on-disc/?hilite=top+disc+2023

https://deadline.com/2023/05/little-mermaid-box-office-profit-loss-halle-bailey-1235383099/

https://deadline.com/2022/12/dwayne-johnson-black-adam-box-office-profit-1235191135/

Wasn’t the article about Black Adam the same one that said Black Adam was a “franchise starter” and Black Adam 2 discussions were totally happening around the same time they announced the new heads of DC studios?

Edited February 5 by Speedorito

[eeetooki]

Since we are talking about toys, is it safe to assume that Aquaman would also sell toys? Though I guess any of the benefits from the franchise would have been sowed after the first movie. I remember Aquaman used to be this uncool character in popular culture. Especially in The Big Bang Theory lol. But after Jason Mamoa's Aquaman, this superhero became cool.

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, Speedorito said:

Wasn’t the article about Black Adam the same one that said Black Adam was a “franchise starter” and Black Adam 2 discussions were totally happening around the same time they announced the new heads of DC studios?

Yeah, Deadline stealth edited out a claim that a Hawkman spinoff was in the works (which to my eyes is pretty much a direct confirmation these numbers came from The Rock's camp given that they would be the ones producing that film). 

 

Honestly, I think the Black Adam numbers hold up better than people claimed at the time; however, I'm also using them because they're clearly trying to put the best possible spin on the film's potential finances so without data showing otherwise, I think they can serve as a ceiling for post-theatrical revenue estimates (granted, I think this line of thinking works better for Aquaman, a pure comp, than TLM which is an entirely different genre with a different potential audience).

Edited February 5 by PlatnumRoyce