Moana 2 | November 27, 2024

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Relevation said:

Wait people think Wicked is gonna outright beat Moana 2?

 

Personally I strongly disagree, I think this being there is a major, major existential problem for Wicked, not the other way around. Moana is an incredibly popular franchise with a huge post-theatrical lifespan on streaming, arguably even stronger than stuff like Dune and Spider-Verse. The first is literally the most watched streaming movie ever! Even if the movie is bad, even if the songs are mid, even if WDAS has been a flop machine recently, Moana 2 is absolutely a juggernaut in the making in my opinion, with a hugely expanded fanbase from the first that should easily send it flying north of $800M+ WW.

 

Meanwhile Wicked? It’s an untested theatrical property, stage musicals to theatrical adaptations are decidedly not on a hot streak right now (In The Heights, Dear Evan Hansen), none of the stars are proven box office draws, it’s a two-parter which might prove to be a kneecap on repeat viewings, and yes while the comps I mentioned are obviously 2021 films and not super analogous to Wicked, I very much don’t think it on its own has the juice to go much past $400M WW without some exceptional WoM.

 

And then you put Moana 2 right next to it, taking away all the family audience that Wicked could’ve scored, plus a ton of the female moviegoing audience, and just screen space in general? I just don’t think Wicked is well positioned here at all, and I think its box office could get squeezed massively. I honestly think it should just move to Christmas and get out of Moana’s way, that way it has a monopoly on female moviegoers during the Christmas corridor.

 

Or I could be wrong, I dunno. I did think Wish would do super well and that blew completely up in my face, so maybe Moana isn’t just up to the task and Wicked is a monster in the making.

The Wizard of Oz IP is meant to be the primary draw for Wicked, more so than being based on the most popular Broadway musical of the past few decades. Hence why it's already getting a super early marketing push, especially when the previous big-budget attempt at the IP 11 years ago proved that audiences (well, US ones, at least) actually will accept an Oz movie without Judy Garland after decades of unsuccessful attempts.

[Speedorito]

43 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Yes, but before was before. There are certain unique factors here that might result in disruptive real world consequences depending on what the outcome is. Or at least that's what the perception might be from studio social media managers.

 

To bring this back to Moana, the whole last minute conversion from a series to movie combined with the knowledge that it is probably a corporately endorsed move coming off two original bombs can't help making it seem cynical on the surface, but knowing the director has Samoan heritage makes me far less inclined to write this off.

I don’t know people thought I was joking but Venom moving away from the election date was not a coincidence:

 

Quote

 

But studios may be laying off all marketing efforts in the weeks before or after the election. Tom Hardy’s superhero sequel “Venom: The Last Dance” was slated to debut on Nov. 8, but Sony recently moved up its release to Oct. 25. Now, no major movies are on the calendar for the first week of November, and there won’t be another tentpole until “Gladiator 2” on Nov. 22, followed by “Wicked” and “Moana 2” on Nov. 27.

https://variety.com/2024/film/features/politics-movies-hollywood-civil-war-election-year-1235944811/
 

So don’t be surprised if Moana and Wicked stay in place.

[SaltyPistola]

People are high on their own supply if they think Wicked is any sort of threat to this. When was the last time we had a OZ property in cinemas that wasn't largely rejected by audiences? 1939? It looks like an ugly mess and is at least 10 years too late. I mean they're hiding that audiences are only getting half a movie?? I'm truely not sure what Universal is thinking with this one.

 

 

Moana 2's only enemy is Moana 2. The only reason this doesn't absolutely demolish the season is if it's not very good. Otherwise, this has a clear runway 

[justnumbers]

I would be shocked if Universal doesn't move Wicked to the Wonka slot or the Hunger Games slot right before Thanksgiving. It's just insane.

 

I have a bad feeling about Wicked even if Good and Moana will stump on it even if it is mediocre.

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[AniNate]

Ha, they knew they would get people on board addressing that criticism about Pua getting shafted in the first

[Eric is Quiet]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Ha, they knew they would get people on board addressing that criticism about Pua getting shafted in the first

lol was about to say. Was really mad the pig didn’t do fun stuff in the ocean last time.

 

Trailer itself? Looks like a Moana sequel alright. Which is a good thing! If you like Moana. If you don’t? Well…why would you watch this lol

[JWR]

Looks like a sequel alright. Cautiously optimistic, Moana is my favorite of the recent Disney era. 

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[Grand Cine]

It's much better than i anticipated , i hope this movie is good because the first one , my first time , it was mixed for me , but now i liked more.

[Cmasterclay]

Already has ten times the buzz in the places I follow (too many Disney adults around me because of theater + Florida) than Inside Out 2 trailer did. I know Moana made less money than IO in theaters but I've seen a decade worth of Moana themed parties and costumes and watch parties that I never saw for Inside Out. I think this ends up bigger assuming Trump doesn't outlaw Disney once he gets elected.

[Eric is Quiet]

9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Already has ten times the buzz in the places I follow (too many Disney adults around me because of theater + Florida) than Inside Out 2 trailer did. I know Moana made less money than IO in theaters but I've seen a decade worth of Moana themed parties and costumes and watch parties that I never saw for Inside Out. I think this ends up bigger assuming Trump doesn't outlaw Disney once he gets elected.

Princess stuff has always had the hugest longevity and staying power with kids and Disney Adults regardless of box office. Bolt made more money than Princess and the Frog, and you probably forgot Bolt was a thing until just now.

[cannastop]

19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Already has ten times the buzz in the places I follow (too many Disney adults around me because of theater + Florida) than Inside Out 2 trailer did. I know Moana made less money than IO in theaters but I've seen a decade worth of Moana themed parties and costumes and watch parties that I never saw for Inside Out. I think this ends up bigger assuming Trump doesn't outlaw Disney once he gets elected.

Yeah Moana has a bigger legacy than even its fellow 2016 WDAS feature, Zootopia. Zootopia also made a lot more in theaters than Moana but Moana still gets crazy ratings to this day on streaming. Definitely think Moana 2 could see a huge bump from the first one.

Inside Out 2: maybe $300m dom?

Moana 2: maybe $400m dom (but it has Wicked to consider)

[AniNate]

It also has Mufasa later on, which I know this forum is down on but can't underestimate that IP

 

Everyone really hyped up the Inside Out nostalgia when the teaser came out so I'm wary of reading too much into snap trailer buzz, but it's definitely an IP that has much more cultural cache than that $250 mil box office indicates

[Morieris]

As someone else who found the original Fine but genuinely likes Moana as a character, the cultural longevity still pleasantly surprises me. "We don't want to be woke we don't want messaging" ok but your second biggest property in the past 10 years stars a Pacific Islander girl.

 

As for the trailer...also fine! Lot of callbacks.

[YM!]

Teaser is a teaser. Views seem great though I just really don't like this and Wicked going head to head as it robs both of their true potential.

[Taylor89]

51 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Already has ten times the buzz in the places I follow (too many Disney adults around me because of theater + Florida) than Inside Out 2 trailer did. I know Moana made less money than IO in theaters but I've seen a decade worth of Moana themed parties and costumes and watch parties that I never saw for Inside Out. I think this ends up bigger assuming Trump doesn't outlaw Disney once he gets elected.

 

Ohh.

[SpiderByte]

Yeah Moana is huge with kids. I see a very likely situation in which it beats out Wicked for #1 of the weekend handily.

[filmlover]

I suspect one of this or Wicked will end up moving up to the 22nd to get a head start on the long holiday frame since Gladiator 2 won't be enough of a threat to anchor the weekend by itself. I also get the sense studios are avoiding launching anything in early November this year knowing that the coverage surrounding the US election is going to drown out everything in all walks of life. 

[toutvabien]

The animation looks pretty darn great! Starting to think this may do even better than I thought it would! Still thinking Inside Out will be the bigger movie, but it may be closer than I thought!