Moana 2 | November 27, 2024

[MysteryMovieMogul]

9 hours ago, cannastop said:

the 27th is the wednesday before Thanksgiving.

On second thought, maybe I shouldn't be basing my opinion on the quality of this film based on people posting here, because already misinformation correction is happening.

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

On second thought, maybe I shouldn't be basing my opinion on the quality of this film based on people posting here, because already misinformation correction is happening.

I'm not sure what that has to do with my entirely factual comment about the movie's release date being the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

[TwoMisfits]

12 hours ago, Warmaster506 said:

Less than 200 mil worldwide coming up

 

I agree - as I just posted in the Disney thread, they are taking a straight-to-streaming tv series and smooshing it into a theatrical movie release on a tight release window.  I don't see how this won't be Planes or something similar (or even worse), quality wise.

 

We've seen how Disney has done with the reverse with the MCU (taking movies and turning them into streaming series) - it's not a good track record.  And at least those products had theatrical budgets.

 

Edited February 8 by TwoMisfits

[SpiderByte]

Those things are not remotely the same in either happenstance. I don't know why you're acting like they only just decided in the last week to make it a film? They probably decided this a while ago.

Edited February 8 by SpiderByte

[YM!]

29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I agree - as I just posted in the Disney thread, they are taking a straight-to-streaming tv series and smooshing it into a theatrical movie release on a tight release window.  I don't see how this won't be Planes or something similar (or even worse), quality wise.

 

We've seen how Disney has done with the reverse with the MCU (taking movies and turning them into streaming series) - it's not a good track record.  And at least those products had theatrical budgets.

 

I am skeptical on quality too especially with it seemingly be last minute but I think it’ll at least open big. The animation looks more or less the same as the first, which is impressive considering it’s WDA’s Vancouver first project and that’s a big driver and kids love the first Moana, think it’ll likely open similar to the first regardless of quality but gross there on after depends on legs assuming they get the original cast. Sub 200m is just silly when even Wish didn’t do it. And that was with actual competition and horrid WOM. Strange World was the only Disney animated tentpole to go sub 100m WW, and tbh there’s much more on paper wrong with that.  A sub 400m gross sure based on WOM yeah but I don’t buy it right now.  Currently I’m thinking around 100/250/600 if it has similar reception to Frozen 2. And tbh I think even that sort of reception is enough for an increase, so long as kids vibe with it. Like 300/800. However if it doesn’t land, they risk an AM3/JL situation for WDA, one that’s far harder to come back from vs the recent original stagnation.

 

16 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Those things are not remotely the same in either happenstance. I don't know why you're acting like they only just decided in the last week to make it a film? They probably decided this a while ago.

How long ago is a while ago. Feel like if this change was in the works, they’d announce Moana 2 as soon as they moved Elio to 2025 last October. On top of that, they would have announced it during D23 in 2022 along with the rest of the slate if it was in the works. In fact, when Bush talked about the Moana remake last April, he said the series was still in the works to a fan. Feel like if they were being secretive about a Moana 2, he’d have not say anything.

Edited February 8 by YM!

[SpiderByte]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

Bush talked about the Moana remake last April

Yes, so over a year ago. That doesn't mean it only became a movie in the past week.

 

I really don't see how people see this news and think "Man, Moana 2 is a huge gamble"

[YM!]

35 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Yes, so over a year ago. That doesn't mean it only became a movie in the past week.

 

I really don't see how people see this news and think "Man, Moana 2 is a huge gamble"

For the record, I do not think Moana 2 is a huge gamble. For sure, quality wise as little of the original crew is returning, inexperienced songwriters when LMM made that movie soar, and it being turned from a series to a movie, but not a financial gamble. All it needs to be is something the kids really dig. There’s far less pressure for this to be a slam dunk to hit big numbers than IO2 or even DP3. Think a Frozen 2 like reception (a step down but kids really like it) at least matches the original. The first one was big on streaming and probably the second most popular WDAS movie. Don't lump me in with the rest of them.

 

Second of all, that was 10 months ago, so not over a year ago. Don’t think this was a past week decision but maybe two-three months ago around when Wish was getting ready, as WDA is notorious for last minute revisions to their projects even during the Lassiter era. See Frozen 2, Wish, Zootopia and even the first Frozen. Also feel with our leak culture even if WDA/Pixar is probably the most Fort Knox in terms of leaks of any studio, we’d know by now that Moana 2 was happening. Especially when they pushed back Elio.

Edited February 8 by YM!

[Liiviig 1998]

Really doubt it will be as good either but 200m is ridiculous.

As long as kids dig it . It will do pretty well.

 

This is not wish or strange world which were originals . This is a sequel to 600m+ box office hit and a streaming juggernaut.

 

Think frozen 2 or Jurassic world level reception will be enough .

 

It will need stellar reception for crazy 1 bn numbers.

 

700m+ Movie IMO.

 

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Really doubt it will be as good either but 200m is ridiculous.

As long as kids dig it . It will do pretty well.

 

This is not wish or strange world which were originals . This is a sequel to 600m+ box office hit and a streaming juggernaut.

 

Think frozen 2 or Jurassic world level reception will be enough .

 

It will need stellar reception for crazy 1 bn numbers.

 

700m+ Movie IMO.

 

Tbh even Mario reception where it’s not a good movie at all but entertains kids and the nostalgic audience is enough.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

I'm not sure what that has to do with my entirely factual comment about the movie's release date being the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

Nothing, it has more to do with the comment you responded to.

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

Strange World was the only Disney animated tentpole to go sub 100m WW, and tbh there’s much more on paper wrong with that

Basically, if Moana 2 is as bad as Disney knew Strange World was, there's no reason for them to make it a big, splashy theatrical tentpole (save for perhaps studio/boardroom politicking) instead of making it a cheaper and smaller planned D+ release. It's not like kids disliked those direct to VHS/DVD features.  

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Basically, if Moana 2 is as bad as Disney knew Strange World was, there's no reason for them to make it a big, splashy theatrical tentpole (save for perhaps studio/boardroom politicking) instead of making it a cheaper and smaller planned D+ release. It's not like kids disliked those direct to VHS/DVD features.  

Shit, from what I knew from friends, apparently they knew that they were glaring problems with Wish.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

Tbh even Mario reception where it’s not a good movie at all but entertains kids and the nostalgic audience is enough.

 

I don't think Disney would mind making Mario money at all lol. I mean sure Oscars are nice too, but only if they're in service to the bottom line.

[cannastop]

17 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Basically, if Moana 2 is as bad as Disney knew Strange World was, there's no reason for them to make it a big, splashy theatrical tentpole (save for perhaps studio/boardroom politicking) instead of making it a cheaper and smaller planned D+ release. It's not like kids disliked those direct to VHS/DVD features.  

sure there's a reason to release a shitty movie in theaters. It makes more money than streaming does.

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

sure there's a reason to release a shitty movie in theaters. It makes more money than streaming does.

 

Yup look at Mean Girls. Not exactly shitty but bland. Has nothing to say. Cast won't be iconic. But even with shitty holds it made more money than it would on streaming where it would probably have Kissing Booth/After series viewership. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

19 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Basically, if Moana 2 is as bad as Disney knew Strange World was, there's no reason for them to make it a big, splashy theatrical tentpole (save for perhaps studio/boardroom politicking) instead of making it a cheaper and smaller planned D+ release. It's not like kids disliked those direct to VHS/DVD features.  

Yeah, I mean, I'm not expecting Moana 2 to be amazing, but I can't find any talk of the Moana Disney+ series past 2020. I found one article from 2021, but it had no sourcing. And everyone knows Toy Story 2 started out as a Direct-to-DVD sequel.

 

Also, this is anecdotal but I was asking a friend of mine what she thought about the announcement and while she's very skeptical about the quality, when I mentioned Lin-Manuel Miranda wasn't involved, she actually saw that as one of the few positives. I really do feel like people underestimate how much he was, and still is, overexposed.

 

Again, I don't know if this will be a great movie, or even a good one, but some of the things people are saying are problems I don't think are definite problems.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Yeah, I mean, I'm not expecting Moana 2 to be amazing, but I can't find any talk of the Moana Disney+ series past 2020. I found one article from 2021, but it had no sourcing. And everyone knows Toy Story 2 started out as a Direct-to-DVD sequel.

 

Also, this is anecdotal but I was asking a friend of mine what she thought about the announcement and while she's very skeptical about the quality, when I mentioned Lin-Manuel Miranda wasn't involved, she actually saw that as one of the few positives. I really do feel like people underestimate how much he was, and still is, overexposed.

 

Again, I don't know if this will be a great movie, or even a good one, but some of the things people are saying are problems I don't think are definite problems.

https://www.awn.com/news/david-derrick-jr-direct-disneys-moana-series
 

The director was bought onto the project January of 2022, when the sequel was still a show. In April of 2023, Jared Bush (screenwriter of Moana), said the show was still in development.

 

Toy Story 2 was made theatrical about 21 months into production around February 1998, and had most of the original crew. Moana 2 doesn’t and likely based on evidence, had the decision much later based on the information available.

[SpiderByte]

Toy Story 2 is completely different. The DTV version didn't even have the same plot.

 

If Disney didn't think this could do the job they wouldn't have put it up against Wicked.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

If Disney didn't think this could do the job they wouldn't have put it up against Wicked.

See, that's where I'm at. It's not like their Moana announcement was what moved the needle for their quarterly report or stock price, either.

 

Definitely going to need a trailer. I mean, it can't be any worse than what Kung Fu Panda 4 is looking like. And I'm sure Despicable Me 4 will do extremely well, but I'll never understand the appeal of those films. I'm getting too old for all these animated films, even Disney's.

[PlatnumRoyce]

 

36 minutes ago, cannastop said:

sure there's a reason to release a shitty movie in theaters. It makes more money than streaming does.

 

Bad theatrical films will also cause significantly more brand damage. The whole "Disney Princess" line is one of their crown Jewels (e.g. it's the biggest merch franchise) and they just had a big flop with Wish. It also costs more money. This is why I don't think the Mean Girls analogy works - iterative games have a very different dynamic than one off cash grabs. Moana 2 and/or Moana: Live action really could be huge but if you have a big theatrical release of a bad moana film a year or two before you roll out another Moana work, the latter is going to get sucked down by the former. 

 

I'm not saying the film can't be mediocre and get bad reviews, I just think it pretty much can't be terrible like Strange World and is probably presumptively better than Wish. Looking at how Disney praised Elemental to the heavens, I really wonder if "brand rebuilding" is seen as very valuable right now.  

Edited February 8 by PlatnumRoyce