DESPICABLE ME IV | 224.4M overseas | 434.5M worldwide

[kayumanggi]

DESPICABLE ME [2010] - 291.6M

DESPICABLE ME II [2013] - 602.7M

DESPICABLE ME III [2017] - 770.2M

Edited July 16 by kayumanggi

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Interesting animated franchise to see and analyze how high the OS numbers we could see for this one.

 

If we’re counting the Minions movies as well, they made money as well. First one did nearly $825M OS, and “Rise of Gru”, while dropped from it’s predecessor, still made a hefty $570M+ OS overall.

 

And considering that Illumination is on a roll with their recent movies like the animated video game adaption “The Super Mario Bros Movie” (that made a staggering $787M OS) and to a lesser extent the original “Migration”, DM4 is probably one of the safest contenders to be a blockbuster this year.

 

DOM-wise, we could see the fourth film do more than the third one, due to how impressive Rise of Gru’s $370M was, and that one was Illumination’s biggest film DOM for nearly year until Mario topped it. Though DM4 might not top Gru numbers, I think above $320-330M+ DOM is a safe choice.

 

As for OS…..I think it does really great enough if audience don’t want to see superhero movies or so.

 

So I’ll say….in between DM2 & DM3. But leaning towards the latter, considering it is still a huge franchise…I’ll go with over around $720-750M OS. Maybe it could go higher and even top the third film, if it’s a better and more well-liked film…but I’ll safely stick with $750M at the maximum. A safe $1B+ WW film if it gets there.

Edited May 19 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Flip]

Probably 650-660m. It should drop around 110m in China, and lose 25m from not having Russia, but there should be some small increases elsewhere (LATAM, SE ASIA) that can help to offset it

[keysersoze123]

Minions 2 did 560m and I think that is a good anchor for this. DM3 did 28% worse than 1st Minions. I am thinking 430-450m for this movie. 

[KP1025]

3 hours ago, Flip said:

Probably 650-660m. It should drop around 110m in China, and lose 25m from not having Russia, but there should be some small increases elsewhere (LATAM, SE ASIA) that can help to offset it

 

It will also probably drop over $35 million in Japan too assuming a similar performance to Minions 2 there and no major improvement to ER.

[Liiviig 1998]

Jurassic world dominion OS numbers.

[Liiviig 1998]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions 2 did 560m and I think that is a good anchor for this. DM3 did 28% worse than 1st Minions. I am thinking 430-450m for this movie. 

1st minions was clearly lightning in the bottle . It was always going to drop off quite big overseas.

 

Think  over or slightly under DM2's 602.7m is the target here. This is clearing minions 2 at the very least IMO.

 

 

[KP1025]

14 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

1st minions was clearly lightning in the bottle . It was always going to drop off quite big overseas.

 

Think  over or slightly under DM2's 602.7m is the target here. This is clearing minions 2 at the very least IMO.

 

 

 

I'm not so certain. Minions 2 had a more tangible hook to sell (Gru's backstory) than DM4 and families were starved for a big animated film that summer since Lightyear bombed. But I don't think it will do that much worse than Minions 2 if it does go under.

[kayumanggi]

[Flip]

On 2/10/2024 at 2:39 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Minions 2 did 560m and I think that is a good anchor for this. DM3 did 28% worse than 1st Minions. I am thinking 430-450m for this movie. 

I’m more on board with this now, the hook doesn’t seem very interesting but seeing how KFP4 was mid and still did 350m INT I can’t see this doing less than 500m especially with no family competition until late september. 530-540m

[kayumanggi]

 

[titanic2187]

The OW is actually pretty great and in line with Minion2 opening.   

Was there any holiday this weekend in these 3 countries? Why Universal opt to open DM4 just one week after IO2? Sound like a very risky move even without massive breakout from IO2 unless there is holiday to offset the impact.

[Grebacio]

On 6/23/2024 at 2:00 PM, titanic2187 said:

The OW is actually pretty great and in line with Minion2 opening.   

Was there any holiday this weekend in these 3 countries? Why Universal opt to open DM4 just one week after IO2? Sound like a very risky move even without massive breakout from IO2 unless there is holiday to offset the impact.

There were 2 holidays on Argentina 

[Flip]

On 2/10/2024 at 11:51 AM, Flip said:

Probably 650-660m. It should drop around 110m in China, and lose 25m from not having Russia, but there should be some small increases elsewhere (LATAM, SE ASIA) that can help to offset it

Kind of cheating since it’s already out in a few markets but I’m thinking closer to 550m

[kayumanggi]

 

[Purple Minion]

Not that bad, considering IO2 competition. Edited June 30 by Purple Minion

[keysersoze123]

I saw this in Reddit comparing this movie to last Minions and Despicable Me movies. AU/NZ have increased from both of them while in Latin American markets its well below last movies I think due to XR. 

 

Quote

Australia:

DM4: 9.7M

Minions 2: 11.99M

DM3: 7.79M

•  

Argentina

DM4: 5.2M

Minions 2: 6.3M

DM3: 10.2M

•  

Chile

DM4: 2.5M

DM3: 2.78M

•  

Colombia

DM4: 1.7M

Minions 2: 3.98M

DM3: 4.5M

•  

New Zealand

DM4: 1.5M

Minions 2: 1.4M

DM3: 1M

 

[Asyulus]

$850M WW is the target it seems.

[Gru]

On 7/1/2024 at 3:23 AM, keysersoze123 said:

I saw this in Reddit comparing this movie to last Minions and Despicable Me movies. AU/NZ have increased from both of them while in Latin American markets its well below last movies I think due to XR. 

 

 

 

Portugal opening weekend

 

DM3          € 532.190,92 / 106.062

Minions 2  € 410.961,53 / 75.372

DM4          € 555.615,86 / 93.406

Compared to DM3, slightly decreased in admission but increased in EUR

Edited July 3 by Gru
typo

[Darth Lehnsherr]

$310M DOM + $575M OS = $885M WW. Though could definitely hit the $900M mark which would be make this almost as unlucky as Harry Potter to not have more films in the $1B club.