President's Day Weekend Thread (2/16-19) | Bob Marley 28.6/34.1 (52 6-Day), Madame Web 15.3/18 (26 6-Day)

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Eric Web said:

Something kind of interesting when you think about Marvel collapsing has kind of resuscitated all the midbudget genres that it almost killed off. Like obviously there's still a huge chunk of audience gone, but there's still something to be said that a lot of small movies, stuff that seemed like it was on its deathbed in 2019 because people kept saving their money for Marvel and Disney remakes, have now migrated back to movies that were seen as just for streaming. And yeah, the big 11B+ totals aren't a thing yet--probably never will--but people are now actually shelling out for more than nostalgic toy commercials because there isn't one studio gobbling everybody's wallets up. That's exciting. That's nice. We're moving up.

I was saying quite a bit back in 2021/2022 and it’s nice to see it coming to fruition, but the decline of Marvel doesn’t mean the decline of moviegoing. It’s like we learned in high school biology: in an ecosystem, when a species is in decline, something will ALWAYS come in to fill the niche. Right now, it feels like we haven’t FOUND what’s going to fill the Marvel niche yet, which means we’ll get a bit of everything turning into hits. But in a few years, something’s going to establish itself.

[John Marston]

Quote

I’m told that S.J. Clarkson, the filmmaker, aimed to make a non-traditional Marvel movie, something in the spirit of the female thrillers that Sherry Lansing use to make at Paramount; and it’s all going sideways. I’ve gotten phone calls that the budget for this film is much higher at north of $100M. But I’m also told Sony reigned it under net $100M with Massachusetts tax credits and post production London tax credits, where the VFX were handled. TSG is a cofinancier here on the Dakota Johnson-Sydney Sweeney movie, as Sony has buffered its risk. I understand if they can get to a $40M-$50M global opening, the spider bite from Madame Web won’t gush a lot of red ink, but some

.

so she wanted Madame Web to be a movie like Fatal Attraction or Indecent Proposal? Huh? Also, did Sony forget those movies had big male movie stars like Michael Douglas and Robert Redford? 

 

 

Box Office: 'Bob Marley: One Love' Eyes $35M+, 'Madame Web' $20M+ (deadline.com)

Edited February 19 by John Marston

[JimmyB]

2 hours ago, Eric Web said:

Something kind of interesting when you think about Marvel collapsing has kind of resuscitated all the midbudget genres that it almost killed off. Like obviously there's still a huge chunk of audience gone, but there's still something to be said that a lot of small movies, stuff that seemed like it was on its deathbed in 2019 because people kept saving their money for Marvel and Disney remakes, have now migrated back to movies that were seen as just for streaming. And yeah, the big 11B+ totals aren't a thing yet--probably never will--but people are now actually shelling out for more than nostalgic toy commercials because there isn't one studio gobbling everybody's wallets up. That's exciting. That's nice. We're moving up.

What did Marvel almost kill off?

 

In 2018, you had Black Panther make 700m domestic, Infinity War 678m domestic.

 

The same year, Crazy Rich Asians made 174m domestic, A Star is Born 213m, Bohemian Rhapsody 216m.

 

Halloween 159m domestic, A Quiet Place 188m.

 

Green Book 85m domestic, Vice and BlackKKlansman doing almost 50m.  The Favorite made 34m. The Mule 103m. I Can Only Imagine 83m.

 

A lot of other genres made money as Marvel also made a ton of money.  This weekend's box office is off 44% vs the same weekend last year.  This weekend is 20% off the same weekend 2 years ago. It's hard to see how things are looking up.  When Dune 2 opens it'll hurt all the other movies out...we have seen this happen post covid whenever the big new event movie opens.  

[WorkingonaName]

Nobody talks about Green Book making $300M, that's like 1.5 Marvels.

[DAJK]

Not sure what anyone else is seeing today, but at least at the theaters I’m tracking in British Columbia, both major openers are staying pretty flat today from yesterday, MAYBE 10% dips if late shows don’t hold up.

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

Nobody talks about Green Book making $300M, that's like 1.5 Marvels.

Green Book also cost 1/10 of Marvels

 

23m vs 230m budgets.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 hours ago, JimmyB said:

When Dune 2 opens it'll hurt all the other movies out...we have seen this happen post covid whenever the big new event movie opens.

I forget this aspect of Dune: Part 2's success. It'll make bank, but it'll also take away from other studios' films. It's not a film that's going to share the wealth.

[M37]

10 hours ago, JimmyB said:

In 2018, you had Black Panther make 700m domestic, Infinity War 678m domestic.

 

The same year, Crazy Rich Asians made 174m domestic, A Star is Born 213m, Bohemian Rhapsody 216m.

Notice that the first two released in February and April respectively, while the other 3 were in August and later? 

 

There definitely is a “save/wait for tentpole” mentality among moviegoers, and in the absence of those, other films can outkick their expected coverage

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[JonathanMB]

Extremely impressive weekend all in all for Bob Marley, maybe the most impressive opening over-performance since Five Nights? This never seemed like a $100M+ player, especially when the move to February made it clear this would not be an awards player, but I have a hard time seeing it miss that mark right now, especially with its holds over the last two days and strong WOM indicators.

Edited February 19 by JonathanMB

[filmlover]

Kind of ironic that the only $70M+ grossers that will emerge from the first two months of the year have come from the one studio that's had plenty of rumors of having a "for sale" sign put in front of the lot.

 

IF and A Quiet Place: Day One look like hits for Paramount as well.

[John Marston]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/madame-web-bomb-killed-sony-franchise-1235829471/
 

 

Madame Web budget actually 100M according to this article.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

It's not a great film, but if anyone wants to watch... 

 

[Bob Train]

 

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/madame-web-bomb-killed-sony-franchise-1235829471/
 

 

Madame Web budget actually 100M according to this article.

Also from that article:

 

Quote

“On Wednesday night, you could actually watch advance purchase sales declining in real time as buyers were refunding their tickets,” marvels a major theatrical chain insider. “It really says something when you’d rather have Shazam! 2 numbers.”

[Bob Train]

 

[Bob Train]

 

[Bob Train]

Edited February 19 by Bob Train

[Bob Train]

 

[Cmasterclay]

I think the continued pattern of good holds and unexpected mini breakouts and depth at the box office indicates that people are coming back and want to spend some money at the movies - I do worry that the utter lack of product compared to even a meh 2023 could lead to a lower ceiling for the year. You can only have so many 60-70m mini breakouts to add up to a total figure.