Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[Noctis]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

You can't put critical scores in your pocket. They didn't greenlight Part 2 to have a small increase over the first one on a bigger budget. In fact, it looks like they expected a billion and 100 mln OW. if that's true, I don't see WB not being very disappointed. Studios cancel sequels they announced before commerical results all the time, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 underperfomance killed already announced and dated Part 3 and 4.

You can't put streaming views in your pocket either, they mean nothing for a theatrical release.

 

$500M is what the first one would've done without HBO Max release and Covid, it would mean no increase over the first one despite much better reception and bigger budget.

 

There's no chance the budget is 150-155 mln, you might as well believe in a tooth fairy.

 

 

WB did not expect this to do a billion - not even close. If you believe that, you might as well believe in the tooth fairy.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Messiah will be greenlit, just on the basis that it's Villeneuve. Dunno why anyone thinks a third film is DoA. This film isn't even going to make what The Two Towers did in 2002, so ignore me. Messiah isn't guaranteed.

[Bob Train]

Messiah is 100% guaranteed. People also said Dune 2 would never get made and look where we are.

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Messiah will be greenlit, just on the basis that it's Villeneuve. Dunno why anyone thinks a third film is DoA. This film isn't even going to make what The Two Towers did in 2002, so ignore me. Messiah isn't guaranteed.

Damn, that's actually crazy to think about. Really puts into perspective how massive LoTR was...

[Firepower]

5 minutes ago, Noctis said:

WB did not expect this to do a billion - not even close. If you believe that, you might as well believe in the tooth fairy.

Studio executives live on another planet, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they expected it to hit a billion. If you read Sony's infamous leaked mail, their executives had even crazier expectations about their movies. But I'm absolutely sure WB expected it to do more than 500 mln range.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Messiah is 100% guaranteed. People also said Dune 2 would never get made and look where we are.

You're probably right, but I don't think Villeneuve will get the same budget he got for this film. The critical and audience success not translating to a higher-than-estimated opening is pretty wild.

[Avatree]

I just looked up the actor that looks a bit like Javier Bardem who plays Stilgar as I thought he gave a great performance in Part Two and wanted to see where this unknown actor had come from...

 

[AniNate]

Not that I believe for a second that this movie won't be considered profitable, but it's total reddit brain to believe that reported box office gross against some imaginary "break even" point is the only thing that matters. Contrary to popular belief, personal creative clout does still go a long way. It's why Scorsese was able to get $200 mil for a grim 3.5 hour drama about native exploitation.

 

That being said, DV has gone on record saying it will be awhile, but I don't think Warner will resist when he decides the time has come.

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

You're probably right, but I don't think Villeneuve will get the same budget he got for this film. The critical and audience success not translating to a higher-than-estimated opening is pretty wild.

Industry tracking was (initially) at 65m-75m, it is set to open over that. Dune 2 is set to deliver a healthy profit, $600m-$700m WW, so I do not see why they would slash the budget. Either way, they won't be making these decisions based off what people on this website are saying for sure.

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-dune-part-two-opening-projection-1235819080/

 

[Avatree]

5 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Messiah will be greenlit, just on the basis that it's Villeneuve. Dunno why anyone thinks a third film is DoA. This film isn't even going to make what The Two Towers did in 2002, so ignore me. Messiah isn't guaranteed.

What kind of dumbass logic is this? Lord of the Rings was one of the most successful film releases of all time. Smashed dozens/hundreds of records. No offence but what a stupid comparison. Dune 2 looks like it will gross over $600M. It has literally doubled the opening day for Dune 1. If Dune 2 hadn't improved over Dune 1 then you might be right but Messiah is 100% happening after Dune 2 has become such a big hit.

 

After the implosion of both of WB's tentpole franchises (DC, Potter), there is literally no chance of them cancelling this franchise after it has become successful.

 

 

Edited March 3 by Avatree

[Noctis]

Messiah will happen, as Part 2 will be a big enough hit to justify it. 

 

Will Messiah just be one film, though? I heard

Florence Pugh signed on because Villneuve told her that she would be one of the major characters in that one.

[Mr Roark]

This place is incredible.

Villeneuve just made one of the most acclaimed blockbuster in recent memory, audience response is crazy good, the film will win at least 5 AA, it will double the OW of its predecessor with at least a $180M+ global launch, there’s a Bene Gesserit series in the pipeline, the script for Dune 3 is almost finished, Zimmer is already writing music for the next one, the film will be profitable even if it will make $500M but… Messiah is not 100% guaranteed? Okay.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

What kind of dumbass logic is this? Lord of the Rings was one of the successful film releases of all time. Smashed dozens/hundreds of records. No offence but what a stupid comparison. Dune 2 looks like it will gross over $600M. It has literally doubled the opening day for Dune 1. If Dune 2 hadn't improved over Dune 1 then you might be right but Messiah is 100% happening after Dune 2 has become such a big hit.

Dune 1 came out during a Pandemic with a day-and-date release. There was absolutely no way this film was going to open to the same or worse numbers as Part 1.

 

But yeah, I'll concede that Messiah is 100% going to happen. Or at least his version of Messiah. Wouldn't be surprised if they call it Part 3. 
 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 minute ago, Mr Roark said:

This place is incredible.

Villeneuve just made one of the most acclaimed blockbuster in recent memory, audience response is crazy good, the film will win at least 5 AA, it will double the OW of its predecessor with at least a $180M+ global launch, there’s a Bene Gesserit series in the pipeline, the script for Dune 3 is almost finished, Zimmer is already writing music for the next one, the film will be profitable even if it will make $500M but… Messiah is not 100% guaranteed? Okay.

Okay, okay, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The discourse around this film has been wild.

[kayumanggi]

5 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

This place is incredible.

Villeneuve just made one of the most acclaimed blockbuster in recent memory, audience response is crazy good, the film will win at least 5 AA, it will double the OW of its predecessor with at least a $180M+ global launch, there’s a Bene Gesserit series in the pipeline, the script for Dune 3 is almost finished, Zimmer is already writing music for the next one, the film will be profitable even if it will make $500M but… Messiah is not 100% guaranteed? Okay.

 

True. There is no way WB abandons the third film.

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Okay, okay, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The discourse around this film has been wild.

Just as a reminder, Dune part 1 won 6. This film is almost guaranteed to sweep the technicals if nothing else.

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Just as a reminder, Dune part 1 won 6. This film is almost guaranteed to sweep the technicals if nothing else.

Dune 1 was also released 7 months closer to the oscars.

[AniNate]

There's a lot of stuff yet to come this year, including three other sequels to oscar noms with the same directors. Don't think you can make any assumptions yet. Appreciate the acclaim for what it is right now.

 

 

Edited March 2 by AniNate

[MysteryMovieMogul]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Just as a reminder, Dune part 1 won 6. This film is almost guaranteed to sweep the technicals if nothing else.

 

2 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Dune 1 was also released 7 months closer to the oscars.

Both true.

 

I just remember when Killers of the Flower Moon was going to win all the awards, and then Poor Things happened. And, yes, I see the Oppenheimer in the room, but I do not see Dune Part 2 becoming a cultural 2024 touchstone the way Oppenheimer was for 2023.

[von Kenni]

On 2/17/2024 at 3:51 PM, von Kenni said:

Here are estimates for Dune Part 1 and Part 2 production budgets (low, middle, high estimates) by researching public sources with some source links and references. We could pinpoint some numbers better and I welcome anyone to share sources for them. Knowing about the Hungarian production costs and overall budgeting for Part 1 is a huge help in estimating Part 2 costs. Any key insights on which parts of the production and even above-the-line costs can be attributed to Hungary will help to refine these numbers even more. Also shooting day numbers per location and what type of shots will help. VFX costs are a big question mark since they did a lot of practical effects, sets, and props together with VFX. There could be some shifts from that overall budget to the Hungarian Production budget but it wouldn't change the overall actuals.

 

That said, the actual numbers aren't much off.

 

	Part 1	Low Ball	Middle Ground	High Ball
Above the line	$24,000,000	$21,000,000	$28,000,000	$37,000,000
Story Rights [1]	$2,000,000	$1,000,000	$2,000,000	$3,000,000
Script & Screenplay [2]	$1,500,000	$1,000,000	$2,000,000	$3,000,000
Producers [3]	$5,000,000	$4,000,000	$5,000,000	$8,000,000
Director [4]	$1,500,000	$1,000,000	$2,000,000	$3,000,000
Main Cast [5]	$10,000,000	$12,000,000	$14,000,000	$15,000,000
Other [6]	$4,000,000	$2,000,000	$3,000,000	$5,000,000
Below the line	$141,000,000	$146,000,000	$165,000,000	$184,000,000
Hungarian Production Costs [7]	$60,000,000	$60,000,000	$65,000,000	$70,000,000
Hungarian VFX Costs [8]	$20,000,000	$40,000,000	$35,000,000	$30,000,000
Hungary Indirect VFX Costs [9]	$20,000,000	$25,000,000	$25,000,000	$25,000,000
Additional VFX [10]	$16,000,000	$0	$10,000,000	$20,000,000
Score [11]	$2,000,000	$2,000,000	$3,000,000	$4,000,000
Jordan/UAE Filming [12]	$15,000,000	$15,000,000	$20,000,000	$25,000,000
Other [13]	$8,000,000	$4,000,000	$7,000,000	$10,000,000
Total	$165,000,000	$167,000,000	$193,000,000	$221,000,000
Hungarian Rebate 30% [14]	$30,000,000	$37,500,000	$37,500,000	$37,500,000
Jordan/UAE Rebate ~20% [15]	$3,000,000	$3,000,000	$4,000,000	$5,000,000
Actuals	$132,000,000	$126,500,000	$151,500,000	$178,500,000
Total VFX Costs [16]	$56,000,000	$65,000,000	$70,000,000	$75,000,000
VFX Shots [17]	1,700	2000	2100	2300
Price per Shot [18]	$32,941	$32,500	$33,333	$32,609

 

 

Some of the budgeting fundamentals and information about the Hungary production can be found in previous posts on this forum:

 

Original post 1/2

Original post 2/2

 

Some resources and references are here to help you but you can find more by googling.

 

Some initial references here, here, and here

 

[1] 

2-3% of the production budget with a cap

LOTR original filming rights

Rights after successful adaptations

Crazy numbers

 

It can have an unknown royalty factor, i.e. X% out of BO.

 

[2]

2-3% of the production budget for original scripts

 

This is an adaptation and Denis Villeneuve was the main screenwriter who takes very reasonable fees, especially for his life’s dream project.

 

[3]

2-5% of the production budget with a cap

Hypothetical blockbuster budget

Ent Law Firm View

 

[4]

One of many mediocre sources points to around $1.5m (before residues)

 

He will most likely take a bigger residue and smaller salary if it helps the film being made.

 

[5]

Modest salaries and most likely residue-heavy

Part 1 salaries. With Residues, you can likely double the final compensation.

 

Depending on the residue structure after Part 2 makes a lot of money in the box office you can double, triple, or multiply even more some of the cast compensation.

 

[6]

A whole bunch of other costs that I didn’t separate above

 

[7]

Original post on this 1/2

Original post on this 2/2

 

[8]

Origo studios VFX capabilities in Hungary

Origo studios website

VFX Supervisor Paul Lambert took his team to Budapest early in pre-production

Insights for making the VFX for Dune from Paul Lambert & co.

More insights

 

The core VFX team worked in Hungary and live-action VFX shooting happened mostly there.

 

[9]

These VFX costs are outside Hungary but are eligible for the rebate.

 

[10]

VFX costs outside Hungary that are not eligible for the rebate.

 

[11]

$1-2m per movie

 

Hans Zimmer has waited half a century to make the score for Dune. Most likely residue-heavy.

 

[12]

Part 1 shooting 11 days in Jordan

Paul // The shoot was a total of 115 days. We shot in Hungary, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Norway & California.

 

Expecting at least 50% more for Part 2 and day rates of shooting being $0.5-1m for Part 2 in Jordan/UAE..

 

[13] 

A whole bunch of other costs such as insurance, etc. that are not mentioned above

 

[14]

Hungarian rebate rules

Exact Hungarian production numbers for Part 1 and Part 2 and the 30% rebates

Some context and remark to 30% and 37.5% rebates

 

[15]

Special consideration will be given to high impact projects (Jordan)

Abu Dhabi incentives

 

[16]

The Creator had great VFX and the whole production budget was $80m!?

 

Overall hard to define a specific VFX budget since so many are actual sets and props built as a base for VFX.

 

[17]

DNEG did 1,200 out of the 1,700 VFX shots of Dune Part 1

VFX shot comparisons

 

[18]

Cost structure

 

Open questions

 

How many of the creatives, production people, and cast moved to Hungary for the production in a way that their salaries were paid in Hungary? I.e. their costs are included in the Hungarian production budget.

 

39 minutes ago, Firepower said:

You can't put critical scores in your pocket. They didn't greenlight Part 2 to have a small increase over the first one on a bigger budget. In fact, it looks like they expected a billion and 100 mln OW. if that's true, I don't see WB not being very disappointed. Studios cancel sequels they announced before commerical results of a movie all the time, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 underperfomance killed already announced and dated Part 3 and 4.

You can't put streaming views in your pocket either, they mean absolutely nothing for a theatrical release. But even if we pretend they mean something, first Dune didn't have exceptional streaming results.

 

$500M is what the first one would've done without HBO Max release and Covid, it would mean no increase over the first one despite much better reception and bigger budget.

 

There's no chance the budget is 150-155 mln, you might as well believe in a tooth fairy.

 

I agree that when they make their investment decisions it's not enough to aim for breakeven there needs to be a big enough upside to justify the risky investment of time and money but also the profitability of theatrical releases is much more than the box office and I think this recap of the most profitable 2022 films by Deadline is very educational for that. The ancillary revenue and costs are correlated with the box office and even though they aren't always linear, you can think of them increasing as the box office revenues increase (e.g. tv/streaming licensing fees and home entertainment revenue).

 

About the Dune budget, as I said even if you take Variety's $190M that is likely lacking the rebated, it is way successful enough with the overall revenue sources. You can see from the above quote a thorough breakdown of the Dune Part 2 budget based on Dune 1 budget information and Hungarian-reported production costs (most of the filming and production happened there) and rebates that are linked there. I welcome new information to refine those numbers from anyone but also hope that the arguments are more than just "I don't believe just because I don't believe" or "look at the Ant-Man 3 budget and how shitty the CGI was with that so no way Dune can be that".