Weekend Numbers | May 31-Jun 02, 2024 | actuals | 14.01M GARFIELD | 10.78M FURIOSA | 10.51M IF | 8.97M APES

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

tracking never tells the full picture. We won’t know for sure until a few days before the release of each film. The doomposting is premature at this point. June has barely begun. 

Yeah esp in the case Of Bad Boys ROD. That is the type of movie that could explode in the final few days even Thursday morning may not tell the full story. That's what happened with For Life 4 years ago. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

21 minutes ago, Kon said:

I'm pretty sure Glen Powell is hottest enough to be on the hottest man of the year for People. 

 

At the end, "hotness" could depend on tastes, but I'm pretty sure Glen Powell isn't just a normal looking good guy.

I mean, People named Blake Shelton "Sexiest Man Alive" once (leading to jokes that all the other men must have died). That "title" is more about what recognizable person is willing to play along with the publicity tour and also has something to promote when it comes around (usually November-ish).

 

I do agree that Glen is nice looking and charismatic.

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

won’t hit 200M worldwide. Commercially, Furiosa was a bad bet. It’s like if the follow up to Dune from 2021 was a movie about Chani released in 2030

Edited June 2 by John Marston

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

-60% drop

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

my only interest in the strangers has to do with its unorthodox release method, but pretty interesting that it seems to be developing 

furiosa

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

won’t hit 200M worldwide. Commercially, Furiosa was a bad bet. It’s like if the follow up to Dune from 2021 was a movie about Chani released in 2030

Eh thought that was a good comparison at first then realized Chani only shows up at the end of Part one. Furiosa is the co lead character of Fury Road. Yeah they should have realized women are not interested like at all and men won't go see a action movie with a lead female character without a equal lead male character. Which is sad but what are you going to do.

[Cmasterclay]

Bad Boys may very well do over 50m OW, but I figured 50m OW would be a given and we would be debating whether it could cross 62m of the last one, not debating whether it would hit 50m. Regardless, I find the Watchers much more bleak - apparently good, tons of trailer views, lots of marketing, easy hook, and something of a brand name for horror with the Shams stuff. I would have bet 25/80 a couple months ago. Now even EmpireCity has dropped all pretense of it breaking out, and double digits OW looks a stretch. That's the kind of stuff I find bleak.

[TomThomas]

Total rejection of Furiosa, even reviews didn't help.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Wooooow that’s a lot of doomposting. Tbh this seems extremely pessimistic to an unnerving degree. I mean tbh I think the only movie of May that shocked me underperforming was Garfield. Apes and IF look to do well domestic and Garfield is doing well internationally but wow Furiosa is dying a painful death right now, but still.
 

June overall looks to be stronger than May and July has at least two big guaranteed hits but August is kind of meh and September seems okay. October, November, and December seem to be extremely strong. This might be the first year where the summer box office is worse than the fall/holiday box office

 

Garfield shocked me...but then it didn't.  I was on vacation last weekend, so I missed its open, but if it failed to bring in boys 13-39, it's just not gonna do well this summer.  Families are closing their pocketbooks for more than 1 movie/season so IF and Garfield actually competed against each other for that dough (and together, may end up right around KFP4's total DOM, which shows that competition), then they cannibalized each other.

 

I expect Inside Out 2 will need to pull HARD in the 13-39 demo for both sexes if it wants a chance to finish above the $200M barrier.  Now Disney has a HUGE millennial base and gen Z base, so that should be possible.  But they are also a pickier clientele, so the movie needs to deliver what they want.

 

I originally picked either Garfield or IO2 to win the summer, but said after mid-May, it's not looking like a family movie will do it b/c the biggest continuing strength in the market is male 13-45 and everything else is still suspect to gone.  So, here's hoping Deadpool v Wolverine will deliver on its promise in July b/c that's obviously the biggest drawing movie this summer for that demo...

[JimmyB]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Bad Boys may very well do over 50m OW, but I figured 50m OW would be a given and we would be debating whether it could cross 62m of the last one, not debating whether it would hit 50m. Regardless, I find the Watchers much more bleak - apparently good, tons of trailer views, lots of marketing, easy hook, and something of a brand name for horror with the Shams stuff. I would have bet 25/80 a couple months ago. Now even EmpireCity has dropped all pretense of it breaking out, and double digits OW looks a stretch. That's the kind of stuff I find bleak.

The Watchers seemed like a movie that could be a surprise hit as little as a month ago and now its going to open like all the other horror movies this year in the 8-10m.  This is the part that bothers me.  Where are the surprise hits?  In a dead marketplace, it's crazy to look at the rest of the summer schedule and nothing will breakout besides the movies everyone thinks will do well? 

 

Deadline had 31 movies making 100m or more domestic before the start of year.   Im not sure we get to 20 movies making over 100m.  

 

https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-2024-predictions-movies-cinemas-1235682149/

 

 

[Kon]

22 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Eh thought that was a good comparison at first then realized Chani only shows up at the end of Part one. Furiosa is the co lead character of Fury Road. Yeah they should have realized women are not interested like at all and men won't go see a action movie with a lead female character without a equal lead male character. Which is sad but what are you going to do.

 

Yeah. Action movies don't tend to attract a big amount of female audience. They will need to include something attractive for female audience, but a female lead doesn't seem be this.

 

Fall Guy has a 46% female audience in its OW, while Furiosa has a 28% female audience.

 

 

Also, it seems men aren't really interested on action movies with female leads, but they will likely go if the concept interest them.

Edited June 2 by Kon

[ringedmortality]

Young Woman and the Sea is not good. The last Disney movie like this was The Finest Hours and Ronning really shows how much better of a director Gillepsie is considering what a snooze fest this was.

 

Also, because Ridley is in her 30s now they cast a 40 year old as her older sister. And there's something so off putting about seeing a middle aged woman play essentially a child for a lot of the film.

[CJohn]

47 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Bad Boys may very well do over 50m OW, but I figured 50m OW would be a given and we would be debating whether it could cross 62m of the last one, not debating whether it would hit 50m. Regardless, I find the Watchers much more bleak - apparently good, tons of trailer views, lots of marketing, easy hook, and something of a brand name for horror with the Shams stuff. I would have bet 25/80 a couple months ago. Now even EmpireCity has dropped all pretense of it breaking out, and double digits OW looks a stretch. That's the kind of stuff I find bleak.

Reviews are embargoed until the moment the previews start. The movie is clearly bad.

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Reviews are embargoed until the moment the previews start. The movie is clearly bad.

I read that the review embargo lifts on June 4

 

Btw, review embargo for BB3 lifted two days before release

Edited June 2 by Maggie

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Reviews are embargoed until the moment the previews start. The movie is clearly bad.

Or there’s a massive twist they want to keep under wraps.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I read that the review embargo lifts on June 4

 

Btw, review embargo for BB3 lifted two days before release

I think he was talking about the Watchers. 

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Uncharted? He was definitely the draw there post NWH. And he's still people's number one choice to star in The Legend of Zelda as well.

 

Outside of franchises, I feel Zendaya and he should find a strong, wholesome romcom script for the two of them to star in. Audiences are there. Or now that he's doing the Bard onstage, maybe try a modern take on Shakespeare like Romeo + Juliet. I know Zendaya would kill Twelfth Night.

He’s definitely not my no.1 choice for Link. I’ve been a Zelda fan all my life and would hate that as a casting choice. I’m a Holland fan too, but hell no. 

[ringedmortality]

56 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I find the Watchers much more bleak - apparently good, tons of trailer views, lots of marketing, easy hook, and something of a brand name for horror with the Shams stuff. I would have bet 25/80 a couple months ago. Now even EmpireCity has dropped all pretense of it breaking out, and double digits OW looks a stretch. That's the kind of stuff I find bleak.

 

Daddy Shyamalan is gonna reign supreme when Trap hits 50M DOM

[wildphantom]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Reviews are embargoed until the moment the previews start. The movie is clearly bad.

I suspect you’re probably right. The last one was merely better than expected considering no Bay, but I’m not sure the same movie again will get the same passing grade from critics. 

[Mad Max007]

Anya is no Zendaya or Flo Pugh. It's her first big film and she's been more of an indie darling.

[Kon]

5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

He’s definitely not my no.1 choice for Link. I’ve been a Zelda fan all my life and would hate that as a casting choice. I’m a Holland fan too, but hell no. 

Yeah. I'm not sure who really wants Holland as Link. That would be a terrible choice.

 

People mentioning this seems to be joking (or fearing).