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The Wild Eric

Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

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Don´t get it the doom about The Bikeriders. 

 

Still think studio will round up to 10M if it didn´t get there [which still can tbh]. That´s quite decent for this, the movie premiered so many time ago in festivals, was selled to another studio, didn´t have a particularly impressive marketing. It´s a good result, nothing to be embarassed about.

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2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yep the BO is doing great. Bikeriders not breaking out should not  be leading to the doom cycle thing. 

I mean, objectively it isn’t doing great, it’s just doing great right now. The future of cinema and original films obviously doesn’t depend solely on Bikeriders, but I do feel like “(insert original film)’s performance doesn’t say anything about the box office/cinema” loses meaning when you say all the time on a regular basis. I wouldn’t call that pessimism.

 

12 minutes ago, XXR & Friends said:

IO2's massive performance has me very hopeful for Moana 2. IIRC, Moana was the most watched movie in all of streaming in 2023. I'm rooting for a Frozen 2 type run (domestically, at least.)

Only things holding it back are a) WDAS itself and b) Wicked, which I’m losing a bit of confidence in

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Just WOW at IO2, I can't believe it increase 55% on Friday! Even being conservative it will make a $96 second weekend. It has a good chance of making $100 on it's second weekend. I2 is going down

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32 minutes ago, AniNate said:

TheWrap estimates $96 million. Would beat TFA's drop but fall just short of Mario's.

 

It's giving IO2 the Finding Dory multiplier (3.14) instead of Incredibles 2 (3.32) -  even though it's Friday jump was higher than both

 

IO2: 55%.

I2:   48%

FD:  33%

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6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Don´t get it the doom about The Bikeriders. 

 

Still think studio will round up to 10M if it didn´t get there [which still can tbh]. That´s quite decent for this, the movie premiered so many time ago in festivals, was selled to another studio, didn´t have a particularly impressive marketing. It´s a good result, nothing to be embarassed about.

People are overreacting thru the last page or so but I'll explain my rationale.

 

Thursday previews of 1.45m. Let's say it hits 10m OW, which it seems like it won't. That's under a 7x IM. That's pretty bad to me.

 

Someone on the previous page made a good point about the fact that previews start SO early now (2pm, almost a full day) so that helps explain it. But still. It's the frontloading for a movie like this that's just really throwing me off.

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14 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

The future of cinema and original films obviously doesn’t depend solely on Bikeriders, but I do feel like “(insert original film)’s performance doesn’t say anything about the box office/cinema” loses meaning when you say all the time on a regular basis. I wouldn’t call that pessimism.

 

The truth is original movies aren't a monolith that you can draw a broad conclusion from. Maybe a lot of them don't hit but enough of them still do for studios to deem them worth the investment if they like the concept/cast/director or something else, for having the prestige and long-term cultural relevance of owning that movie if nothing else.

 

I do think it probably means Jeff Nichols won't get a $40 mil budget for the foreseeable future, but the fact that there are enough original movies that still come out for it to become a tedious mantra that they're not a draw anymore is evidence in itself that they will not go away.

 

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It's giving IO2 the Finding Dory multiplier (3.14) instead of Incredibles 2 (3.32) -  even though it's Friday jump was higher than both

 

IO2: 55%.

I2:   48%

FD:  33%

yeah this is the same Friday jump as Elemental of all things.

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13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm also guessing The Bikeriders is pulling in a rather younger than expected audience for a period drama given how Internet Fave-y the cast is (in addition to Butler and Hardy, it also has Mike Faist coming off of Challengers in it in a supporting role).

Looks like Bikeriders played a little younger vs Killers of a Flower Moon.  

 

Bikeriders is mostly popular in the West. Men showed up strong at 62% with half of those who bought tickets between 18-34 and 32% over 45. Diversity demos were 60% Caucasian, 22% Latino or Hispanic, 6% Black and 6% Asian. Highest grossing venue is AMC Burbank with close to $17K so far.

 

Demo diagnostics for Killers of the Flower Moon on PostTrak are 62% Male/38% Female, with 46% of the audience between 18-34 years old and the largest quad being 25-34 years old at 27%, with an amazing 38% of the audience over 45. Diversity demos were 60% Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black, 8% Asian, and 7% Native American/other

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Just now, Pinacolada said:

People are overreacting thru the last page or so but I'll explain my rationale.

 

Thursday previews of 1.45m. Let's say it hits 10m OW, which it seems like it won't. That's under a 7x IM. That's pretty bad to me.

 

Someone on the previous page made a good point about the fact that previews start SO early now (2pm, almost a full day) so that helps explain it. But still. It's the frontloading for a movie like this that's just really throwing me off.

Maybe Butler (and Hardy?) stans resulted in frontloading? This is actually his first leading project since Elvis (Dune is an ensemble piece).

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7 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I mean, objectively it isn’t doing great, it’s just doing great right now. The future of cinema and original films obviously doesn’t depend solely on Bikeriders, but I do feel like “(insert original film)’s performance doesn’t say anything about the box office/cinema” loses meaning when you say all the time on a regular basis. I wouldn’t call that pessimism.

 

 

I mean yeah I think we have beaten it into the ground how hard it is to get adult audiences in the door to non tentpole regular old movies. It is not going back to the way it was. Simple as that.  It sucks but not much we can do about it. As long as the IO 2s and DP and W s keep the lights on for  now.

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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Maybe Butler (and Hardy?) stans resulted in frontloading? This is actually his first leading project since Elvis (Dune is an ensemble piece).

Yeah I think so, which highlights the depressing aspect of the movies ok performance to me. It still isn't attracting "middle america" and older audiences to the theaters the way a movie like this should absolutely be doing. Guess they're still just staying home

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I mean I don't even think anyone here was all that hyped about Bikeriders until it all of a sudden became the next thing the fate of auteur cinema rests on. It's still on the high end of its HSX tracking trend right now.

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17 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I mean, objectively it isn’t doing great, it’s just doing great right now. The future of cinema and original films obviously doesn’t depend solely on Bikeriders, but I do feel like “(insert original film)’s performance doesn’t say anything about the box office/cinema” loses meaning when you say all the time on a regular basis. I wouldn’t call that pessimism.

 

 

I still remember when people on here were saying, with a straight face, that Barbie's success proves that people want "original" movies. It is hilarious how every actual original since then has not done anything noteworthy 

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Alright idk why yall are being so obtuse with the slight doom and gloom about The Bikeriders pretty poor IM. I don't think anyone here is saying "Theaters are dead" bc of its decent opening. Like you said it's on the high end of its projections, and then you have Inside Out 2 and Bad Boys killing it in their performances.

 

But with a Thursday launch of 1.45m, I think it's reasonable for some people to react when it IMs below 7x. That should not be happening for a movie like this. That's all I'm saying.

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1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Pretty much every white adult cinephile film outside Oppenheimer, from bigger ones like Killers of Flower Moon and Napoleon to smaller ones like this, have shitty IMs nowadays. Kinda always meh legs too tbh. These used to be the leggiest adult films and now they all have Twilight legs. There's a hardcore cinephile crowd that will see them opening night and that's it, everyone else waits.

Agree, and it’s largely because they look very similar to the content available on streaming platforms, without a “must see now” cultural hook. The GA is no longer a go every/every other week/once a month crowd that will see kind of anything, there has to be a bar that is cleared to get them off the couch. Even No Hard Feelings had a sub-3x Th/Fri and sub-7x IM last June

 

Its only the A-list et all sub members and other cinephiles who are willing to pay adult admission prices to see in theaters, everyone else just waits (or forgets about it entirely). 

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14 minutes ago, Eric is Anxious said:

Maybe Bikeriders should have stayed with Fox. After all, we all know what Mickey’s Law does to da movies.

Eric, you of all people should now by now Mickey’s Law has an inverse effect for non-NTC’s lol

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