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Krissykins

Weekend Thread August 23rd-25th

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Next weekend's definitely going to be a rough one (AfrAId clearly being left for dead...I hope John Cho and Katherine Waterston got nice checks out of it at least) but it doesn't matter since the following week will begin what's looking to be a very long stretch of successes.

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Yep summer is over. Saturday and Sunday numbers should compensate of course. I figured Romulus would not have great legs, last weekends IM and the daily's this week showed that. Labor day next weekend should help get it past 100m. Only the second to do so. Of course adj for inflation the first two have. As for DP and W 650 is looking less and less likely but still dam good overall. The weekends new movies yeah not much to say. Blink Twice a streaming movie in the theaters and The Crow just another all around disaster for Lionsgate.

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It's quite a shame that Blink Twice (which might've had break-out potential under a different studio) is opening this low, but the fact that this is opening better than The Crow is just funny to me. 

 

Like, you know your franchise movie is bad when it opens below something that is entirely original and had no built-in fanbase to drive up ticket sales. 

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D&W is only 11m ahead of Barbie and 14m behind Jurassic World.  A great run for D&W but I don't think it's holding like some users here thought it would.

 

When IT opened it basically sucked all the other movies box office like a black hole.   If Beetlejuice opens like IT I dont see any reason why that won't happen again to all the other releases.

 

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2017/09/08

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Amazon MGM and Lionsgate are running pretty close in 2024 totals so will be interesting to see who emerges on top. Will anything from the latter for the rest of the year even hit $25M total given how totally uneventful their slate looks?

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5 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

D&W is only 11m ahead of Barbie and 14m behind Jurassic World.  A great run for D&W but I don't think it's holding like some users here thought it would.

 

When IT opened it basically sucked all the other movies box office like a black hole.   If Beetlejuice opens like IT I dont see any reason why that won't happen again to all the other releases.

 

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2017/09/08

Yeah everything not named Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is getting killed in two weeks. It's the first weekend of the NFL season and the weekend after Labor Day weekend which outside of the Two IT movies has never been a weekend for a big movie release. Beetlejuice is helped by being a movie that does not target the Core NFL audience and that's why they are comfortable with releasing it that weekend.

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Yeah lousy weekend but as I said before basically matching last year. We should be good to finally have our first calendar month since March that is actually positive over '23. Next weekend definitely looks like a bummer by all metrics though unless we have some really big reexpansions.

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https://deadline.com/2024/08/box-office-blink-twice-channing-tatum-the-crow-alien-1236048699/

 

Quote

The chart:

1.) Deadpool & Wolverine (Dis) 3,840 (-120) theaters, Fri $4.8M (-41%) 3-day $17.8M (-41%), Total $576.6M/Wk 5

2.) Alien: Romulus (20th/Dis) 3,915 (+30) theaters, Fri $4.5M (-75%) 3-day $16M (-61%) Total $72.5M/Wk 2

3.) It Ends With Us (Sony) 3,839 (+100) theaters, Fri $3.8M (-51%) 3-day $11.85M (-50%), Total $120.8M/Wk 3

4.) Blink Twice (AMZ MGM) 3,067 theaters, Fri $2.89M, 3-day $7.1M/Wk 1

5.) The Forge (Sony) 1,818 theaters, Fri $2.4M 3-day $6.4M/Wk 1

6.) Twisters (Uni/WB) 3,206 (-277) theaters, $1.64M (-42%) 3-day $5.85M (-42%), Total $248.3M/Wk 6

7.) Coraline (Fath) 1,600 (+168) theaters, Fri $1.4M (-47%) 3-day $5.1M (-46%), Total $24.1M/Wk 2

8.) The Crow (LG) 2,752 theaters, Fri $2M 3-day $4.5M-$5M/Wk 1

9.) Despicable Me 4 (Uni) 2,591 (-197) theaters, Fri $1.06M (-34%) 3-day $4.15M (-34%), Total $348M/Wk 8

  1. ) Inside Out 2 (Dis) 1,850 (-350) theaters Fri $498K (-41%) 3-day $2M (-42%) Total $646.2M/Wk 11

 

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8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

yeah kind of confusing. I thought weaker weekdays would lead to bigger Friday jumps

Yeah strangely muted friday jumps. Was something going on last night? The Democratic convention was over and no big sporting events on. Maybe bad weather through a lot of the country. Not sure.

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D&W on a path to triple its massive opening weekend... no wonder Disney has locked down late July for the future... if they can hype up FF to $100m+ opening and then it gets strong WoM they will make a shit ton of cash through Labor Day again.

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I hope that Deadline is just wildly underestimating all the movies Saturday increases because the drops on everything this weekend suck, not just Romulus being frontloaded. I don't see a reason why the two nothing burger releases that aren't even taking PLF would cause a bunch of 40%+ drops all around. There's no big events no bad weather nothing like that. Most of these should be seeing drops in the 30s, and Despicable Me should be in the 20s tbh. 

Edited by wattage
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5 minutes ago, wattage said:

I hope that Deadline is just wildly underestimating all the movies Saturday increases because the drops on everything this weekend suck, not just Romulus being frontloaded. I don't see a reason why the two nothing burger releases that aren't even taking PLF would cause a bunch of 40% drops all around. 

 

Maybe I'm too pessimistic for Alien Romulus, but I think Deadline prediction is too high. I think the weekend for Alien Romulus could go this way:

 

Friday 4.5M

Saturday 7M

Sunday 3M

 

Edited by Kon
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3 hours ago, JimmyB said:

Romulus has been playing front loaded from opening day and continues with this Friday number.  I still think Scream 6 is the best comp. Could be another film that just misses 100m


it’s going past $100 million. 

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39 minutes ago, AniNate said:

The holds from last Friday don't look that bad, probably as simple as more kids going back to school now.

The Friday holds make total sense to me especially with it being late August, the entire weekend percentage drops don't make sense to me though. The young adults and kids are largely back in school now and business getting pushed into the weekends should be causing smaller overall drops on the weekends right now, espcially when there's no big releases sucking up screens. 

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