May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[spizzer]

Most impressive thing about DH2 has always been and will always be the midnights number. That was insanity.

Agreed, and the 3D share was pretty low as well, somewhere in the low 40s. It would've done ~38M without 3D

[spizzer]

Accounting for IMAX for both SM3 and TDK, I can't imagine them having sold more tickets than TA given any accuracy with Spizzers charts even at 'just' 200 million.

Why? SM3 made 4.8M from IMAX on OW, and TDK 6.3M. It doesn't make that huge of a difference.You guys can't just let that 200M figure sway you.

[Shantal]

There are others, which is why I used a $15.30 price instead of a $17.18 price (D-Box average).True, but the same can be said for SM3, and then we'd have to reevaluate EVERY single film's OW. The difference is almost negligible though. Not nearly the same as the 3D/2D difference

Sorry for all the question but I love statistics, that's why I'm asking. I think if movies get within around 200 000 tickets of each other it's very difficult to name a winner. Yes, the same could be said for SM3, but as I said I don't know its numbers, with taking into account the IMAX prices for like 4 or 5 mil $ it made there.

[Shantal]

Why? SM3 made 4.8M from IMAX on OW, and TDK 6.3M. It doesn't make that huge of a difference.

Do you have average prices for those two years, so a similar calculation for them both could be done? And what actually are their numbers?

[eXtacy]

At 210m its avengers by a comfortable 200-500 thousand.

[spizzer]

Sorry for all the question but I love statistics, that's why I'm asking.I think if movies get within around 200 000 tickets of each other it's very difficult to name a winner. Yes, the same could be said for SM3, but as I said I don't know its numbers, with taking into account the IMAX prices for like 4 or 5 mil $ it made there.

No problem at all. I love statistics as well and I'm happy to answer :DI agree, it is difficult to do so. There's too many variables unaccounted for

[Jussslic]

Man, if another movie ever comes around with a 3D share like Avatar and front-end demand like the Avengers, what the hell is the upper ceiling?

[Shantal]

^^^^Am I bad at adding or is there something not right in the last row?

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I still can't believe that on Friday afternoon I was thinking this:RE: Nikki's 65m Friday

When you consider 3D, that's less admissions than IM2 on Friday proper. That can't be right.EDIT: And, yes, that's using the 15% 3D rule.

And now we're talking about TA possibly making 210m for the weekend.

[spizzer]

^^^^Am I bad at adding or is there something not right in the last row?

Yeah, just saw that. Am working on it

[Shantal]

Why is the number of tickets in line 2D the same as in line Total in both tables? ps. and why can't I click anything over the text box, no smilies, no link, nothing.

[spizzer]

Why is the number of tickets in line 2D the same as in line Total in both tables? ps. and why can't I click anything over the text box, no smilies, no link, nothing.

I had excel summing the wrong boxes. The total was wrong, but if you added them by hand, it was the correct figure

[spizzer]

SM3

Format	Gross	Share	Price	Tickets
3D	$-	0.0%	$9.64	-
IMAX 3D	$-	0.0%	$12.81	-
Other	$-	0.0%	$13.20	-
2D	$146,316,516	96.8%	$6.75	21,668,491
IMAX	$4,800,000	3.2%	$12.51	383,760
Total	$151,116,516		$6.85	22,052,250

Edited May 7, 2012 by spizzer

[spizzer]

TDK

Format	Gross	Share	Price	Tickets
3D	$-	0.0%	$9.93	-
IMAX 3D	$-	0.0%	$13.19	-
Other	$-	0.0%	$13.59	-
2D	$152,111,483	96.0%	$6.96	21,870,569
IMAX	$6,300,000	4.0%	$12.88	489,014
Total	$158,411,483		$7.08	22,359,583

[eXtacy]

It really doesn't matter if you off by even a dollar for imax prices for dark knight and spider-man. Why...The dark knights 6.8m imax accounts for only 4.3% of total. If current imax is around 15.4, you could estimate 4 years ago it was at 14 dollars. If you were off by a dollar either way MAXIMUM error margin would only be 0.3% of ticket sales. So add or take 65 thousand tickets. An accurate 2D price is what counts.

[StarSaber]

Where did you get the average ticket prices?

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

TDK Format Gross Share Price Tickets 3D $- 0.0% $9.93 - IMAX 3D $- 0.0% $13.19 - Other $- 0.0% $13.59 - 2D $152,111,483 96.0% $6.96 21,870,569 IMAX $6,300,000 4.0% $12.88 489,014 Total $158,411,483 $7.08 22,359,583

It's amazing how close these three films will end up being.

[blackspider]

With TDK, SM3, and TA all around 22m admissions, it begs the question if that's the most a film can do right now. TDKR will have to put it to the test. It has several advantages. More potential for midnights and if it experiences spillover, we can be in for another massive Sunday.

[spizzer]

Where did you get the average ticket prices?

http://consumerist.com/2011/05/analyst-box-office-shows-customers-are-tired-of-3d-high-ticket-prices.htmlThat magazine is a subset of the Consumer Report.The 3D IMAX price is from IMAX Edited May 7, 2012 by spizzer

[Jussslic]

With TDK, SM3, and TA all around 22m admissions, it begs the question if that's the most a film can do right now. TDKR will have to put it to the test. It has several advantages. More potential for midnights and if it experiences spillover, we can be in for another massive Sunday.

I was wondering this exact same thing. I was also just wondering what a hypothetical film with 22m admissions and a 65(ish)% 3d share would gross OW. Or whether 22m admissions is even possible with a 65% 3d share... Edited May 7, 2012 by Jussslic