MovieMan89 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 So how bad are you thinking MIB3 is going to do?45-50m for OW/ 55-60m 4 dayI expect it will see 55-60% 2nd and 3rd weekend drops after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I think TA will stay ahead of MIB after MIB's OW.How? I have MIB opening to 80 mill. Avengers should be down to about 35 mill on the three day Memorial weekend. MIB is not going to dop 70% the weekend after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcolet1031 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 45-50m for OW/ 55-60m 4 dayI expect it will see 55-60% 2nd and 3rd weekend drops after that. So what are you seeing the TA doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcolet1031 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Memorial Day I see MIB3 doing about 65-70M over the 4-day... and the Avengers doing about 45-50M over the 4-day... MIB3 should win... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 How? I have MIB opening to 80 mill. Avengers should be down to about 35 mill on the three day Memorial weekend. MIB is not going to dop 70% the weekend after.Well for starters I don't have MIB opening nearly that high or TA going that low for Memorial day. I think TA will only be down to around 45m or so for the 3 day. I expect sub 40% holds this weekend and memorial weekend for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I just have a feeling all of us are under estimating MIB...I hope not, but it's just a bad feeling. It's the first big film opening after Avengers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcolet1031 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 MIB is going to falter after Memorial Day... i see 70M over the 4-day...then finishing with about 150M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 $40-50m is too low for MIB3 in my opinion. I see about $60mil for the 3day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I just have a feeling all of us are under estimating MIB...I hope not, but it's just a bad feeling. It's the first big film opening after Avengers.I think people will hold off till June. There's tons of appealing films opening in June for all kinds of different demos. We've seen before when there's unappealing movies, people don't go to them. Thankfully TA is strong enough that I think it can single-handedly carry May on its shoulders while we wait for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 (edited) What I'm predicting:May, 25th1) The Avengers2) MIB3) Battleship4) The DictatorJune 1st:1) The Avengers2) Snow White and the Huntsman3) MIB4) BattleshipJune 8th1) Prometheus2) Madagascar 33) The Avengers4) Snow White and the HuntsmanJune 15th1) Prometheus2) The Avengers3) Rock of Ages4) Madagascar 3June 22nd1) Brave2) Prometheus3) The Avengers4) MadagascarJune 29th1) G.I. Joe Retaliation2) Brave3) Prometheus4) The AvengersJuly 4th1) The Amazing Spider-Man2) G.I. Joe Retaliation3) Brave4) Prometheus5) The Avengers6) MadagascarFeel free to call this a crazy fanboy delusion. Edited May 15, 2012 by iJackSparrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 That's why it looks so suspicious. First the subject of tickets sold is raised...then the name of a movie that is not the standard for tickets sold is mentioned? The connection really isn't there.Of course the connection is there, it still sold more tickets than any movie from the last decade bar two others. And what does "suspicious" mean in this context anyway? Are you personally annoyed that it did so well or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 hmm yesterday I checked on BOM and TA was already head of TDK. Now it's behind it. Did the wknd actuals go down a little bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 What do you guys think of the comments below? Does the Domestic market have enough capacity (demand, number of theater screens) for all the upcoming blockbusters and ensure Avengers finishes north of $600mil?Check out the release schedule. It's insane!http://boxofficemojo.com/schedule/ Rallax is right. I work at a movie theater too. THG is on the smallest screen right now with about 5 showings. I expect it to either leave entirely or share a screen with another movie to make room for The Dictator and Battleship this week. The fact its lasted this long is a testament to its late legs and the fact that April was very weak. That won't be the case for The Avengers with big movies coming out every week that will demand screens and push TA from more and more screens and theaters.I expect it to have a great run over the next month and a half, but expecting it to still be making a lot of cash come July is wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 WOW just realised that THG had just a 19.4% wknd drop. That's amazing. Does it have enough fuel to make it to $400m? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 WOW just realised that THG had just a 19.4% wknd drop. That's amazing. Does it have enough fuel to make it to $400m?Absolutely. Worst case scenario is it only makes another $10m or so from here which puts it around $397-398m, but then you just know LG would fudge it to 400 anyways, so even worst case scenario it wins!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Absolutely. Worst case scenario is it only makes another $10m or so from here which puts it around $397-398m, but then you just know LG would fudge it to 400 anyways, so even worst case scenario it wins!!400m for a first timer is quite amazing. We will have four $400m films this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 What kind of drop for Monday? Can it hit 10M? It requires 67.7% drop from Sunday. Rth will probably give us a number later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 (edited) The mkt is about to get crowded so $400m isnt guaranteed. Im hopeful though. Edited May 15, 2012 by lilmac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
code65536 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Feel free to call this a crazy fanboy delusion. And so I shall. It will probably cede the #1 weekend title to MIB3. If not, it will definitely lose it to SWATH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhorse Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 The trouble with DS is that its the same film as the last 10 Burton/Depp/HBC movies. All are dark, strange looking, all the same characters all the same actors. None are especially bad, but they are just boring now. The last one i really liked was Sleepy Hollow.People are basically just saying 'oh look its THAT lot again'. I have the same problem with any Director who uses his favourites too much. I can see Nolan doing the same thing if he isn't careful as he has already recycled actors from Batman to Inception and back again, and Scorsese can be guilty as well..James Cameron in particular really likes to use the same actors. It seems to me, if you were to watch Aliens, somebody from that movie has been in another one of his movies.Terminator-Michael Biehn, Bill Paxton and Lance Henrickson.Terminator 2-Janette Goldstein,Michael Biehn(in the director's cut)The Abyss-Michael BiehnTrue Lies-Bill PaxtonTitanic-Bill Paxton, Janette GoldsteinAvatar-Sigorney Weaver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
