JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

If you're allowed to make high predictions and defend them with your reasons, then people can also disagree with you and defend their opinions with their reasons (for example, by saying it's not pixar, not sequel etc). They might be wrong in the end, and you are right, because apparently you're the best predictor here with your knowledge in trading stock market, but they didn't do anything wrong. Besides, I don't think anyone told you it's crazy to predict TS3 number for Frozen. Those "you're crazy" responses were for the predictions involving Spirited Away number, because that is, well, crazy. If someone makes an extreme prediction, of course people will react. It would have been the same if someone had predicted $30m in Japan. It's okay to make extreme predictions, but you have to be prepared for the reactions from others. Also, you're acting like you're the only one who gets a lashing, and it's you vs. everybody else. A lot of posters here get it too because of their conservative predictions. It's okay to disagree, but please don't play the victim and be so condescending like that. I'm really sorry if I'm being too harsh. Just need to get it off my chest. Anyway, back to Frozen. 7% increase means $8m weekend? That's great!    Maybe that early report will end up being low again.

I never said spirited away numbers, others did, they got the lashing Dr Freud. Not playing victim, just pointing out the idiocy of being 50% short and saying 20% long is way off.be harsh all you want. I'm semi retired w my predicting ability. The other 97% all had to get jobs. 7% sounds low. Was thinking at least 10-15%

[druv10]

Per Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates [03/22-23]

01 (01) ¥816 million ($8.1 million), +7%, Frozen (Disney) Week 2
02 (02) ¥272 million ($2.7 million), -32%, Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 3
03 (--) ¥139 million ($1.3 million), NEW, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) DEBUT
04 (--) ¥120 million ($1.1 million), NEW, God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) DEBUT
05 (03) ¥106 million ($1.0 million), -45%, Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 2
06 (05) ¥54 million ($530,000), -45%, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 4
07 (06) ¥51 million ($500,000), -42%, The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho) Week 6
08 (07) ¥50 million ($490,000), -37%, Silver Spoon (Toho) Week 3
09 (04) ¥36 million ($350,000), -64%, RoboCop (Sony) Week 2
10 (08) ¥26 million ($250,000), -47%, The Eternal Zero (Toho) Week 14

-¥22 million ($210,000), -48%, Kiki's Delivery Service (Toei) Week 4
-¥15 million ($140,000), -54%, 12 Years a Slave (Gaga) Week 3

>Frozen.... pretty unreal. It's going to be tracking ahead of Toy Story 3 and Monsters University for awhile, and depending on the lead it gains before those two films received their Summer/Obon Festival boosts, it could end up challenging them.

¥8 billion ($80 million) looks more than likely now; ¥9 billion ($90 million) is doable; and ¥10 billion+ ($100 million+) will be difficult, but there is a chance.

>Disastrous start for God's Medical Records 2. It's only going to make 50-60% of the original.

No estimate for Saving Mr. Banks was released, but it will be in the Top 10. Near the bottom I'm sure, but still there.

[catlover]

I never said spirited away numbers, others did, they got the lashing Dr Freud.Not playing victim, just pointing out the idiocy of being 50% short and saying 20% long is way off.be harsh all you want. I'm semi retired w my predicting ability. The other 97% all had to get jobs.7% sounds low. Was thinking at least 10-15%

 

Okay then. Now that we've said what we wanted to say, back to Japan's box office.

 

I also think it's too low. I thought it would be around 8.5m. And no reports from Toho for this Sunday to compare. Well, at least it did increase, and that's great! Also, big drops for other movies, makes Frozen's increase more impressive, and God's Medical Records 2 bombed. Before Frozen opened people were saying it's gonna debut at #1.

Edited March 23, 2014 by catlover

[John Marston]

are there holidays coming up?

[LABAS]

are there holidays coming up?

Spring break for students 3.25~4.7

[druv10]

Per Corpse

 

Biggest Second Weekends [2004-]

¥1.26 billion ($11.6 million), -35%, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner Bros.) 2004
¥1.25 billion ($11.7 million), -16%, Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) 2004
¥1.17 billion ($9.6 million), -21%, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) 2007
¥1.11 billion ($13.8 million), -08%, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney) 2011
¥1.08 billion ($9.0 million), -19%, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Warner Bros.) 2005
¥1.04 billion ($10.8 million), -14%, Rookies (Toho) 2009
¥1.02 billion ($10.9 million), -22%, Alice in Wonderland (Disney) 2010
¥1.02 billion ($9.1 million), -20%, The Da Vinci Code (Sony) 2006
¥820 million ($7.1 million), -19%, Hero (Toho) 2007
¥816 million ($8.1 million), +07%, Frozen (Disney) 2014 *Estimate*
¥814 million ($7.3 million), -62%, Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (Fox) 2005
¥811 million ($8.3 million), -16%, The Wind Rises (Toho) 2013
¥806 million ($7.6 million), -22%, Ponyo (Toho) 2008
¥756 million ($7.1 million), -25%, Boys Over Flowers: Final (Toho) 2008
¥728 million ($8.2 million), -26%, Toy Story 3 (Disney) 2010
¥708 million ($6.3 million), -27%, Umizaru: The Limit of Love (Toho) 2006
¥705 million ($6.1 million), -63%, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Disney) 2006
¥704 million ($8.6 million), -48%, One Piece Film Z (Toei) 2012
¥704 million ($7.2 million), -17%, Monsters University (Disney) 2013

[Boxx93]

10th biggest second weekend!

[mfantin65]

What would be the total gross with that?

midweek looking to be 11m29+ total

[John Marston]

Spring break for students 3.25~4.7

so all movies should do well over that week

[mfantin65]

Looking forward to tomorrows Toho number. Last week monday was lowest day. it did 7 times monday but friday was a holday.I think it could do 6 times mon this week..5 x toho for total admissions. X$12 ave- wed ladies discount brings ave down. X 6=360 x toho 2200 mon updateIf spring break is as big as I think it could be- looking 35,000-45,000 toho admissionsWhat's a typical monday hold for spring break for movie like this corpse?Looks like some mid weeks are 25-100% bigger than previous weekend in summer. That puts frozen 10-16m range. Im leaning high of course.

[Corpse]

What's a typical monday hold for spring break for movie like this corpse? 

I want to see what its average ticket price is for this weekend and the two week total.  If it hasn't dropped much, and with the 3D share being so low, I have to believe that it's not really targeting young children.  Anything over an avg. ticket price of 1,250 means few children/teens are seeing the film (1,250 is about the national average, and children/student tickets cost just 1,000), and films that targets this crowd see the best Spring Break results.  Films with an older audience still do well over Spring Break, just not nearly as well.  

 

The reason Spring Break isn't nearly as strong as Golden Week, Obon, or New Year is because films that have an older audience don't benefit from it enough.  Only children and students get Spring Break off, while most adults get Golden Week, Obon, and New Year off.  And adults make up the majority of the box-office attendance.  

 

And using only Toho to project weekly/weekend numbers is fine, but remember that you're only getting admission figures here, and every film's avg. ticket price drops over time.  So a 15% increase at Toho is in admissions only.  The yen/usd increase is going to be lower than that since ticket prices fall each week until usually the 6th/7th week when it stabilizes.  There are times, too, when films see admission increases over the weekend but end up dropping in yen/usd.

Edited March 23, 2014 by Corpse

[mfantin65]

I knew frozen was drawing an older crowd than other animation. I assumed the base was still younger people though. Surprising.I hope the young ones come out in droves tomorrow.with the weekends hold of up 7% maybe monday holds same w the older crowd. 1.3m plus the spring breakers. 2.5m would be nice.

Edited March 23, 2014 by mfantin65

[Corpse]

Standard method to see which demographics are seeing a movie:

 

Avg. Ticket Price Breakdown:

 

1,000-1,100: Young children (10 and under) and Seniors (60+).  Children and Seniors can purchase tickets at 1,000.

1,100-1,200: Children/Teens (10-16), Girls/Women, and Couples.  Women can buy tickets for 1,000 on Wednesdays, and older students still can, too.

1,200-1,300: General audiences (18-59).  Most films have an average ticket price in this range, with the national average hovering around 1,250 for decades now.

1,300-1,400: Men (21-59).  Men don't have discounts besides days that everyone can get them, so they're usually stuck paying the 1,300 admission fee charged by most theaters.

 

That's pretty much it.  Films that have a avg. ticket price over 1,400 normally have high 3D shares or overpriced tickets for niche films that Otaku are willing to pay.  

Edited March 23, 2014 by Corpse

[BadAtGender]

It's interesting that Japan is one market (maybe the only market) that hasn't apparently suffered from ticket price inflation.

[mfantin65]

It's interesting that Japan is one market (maybe the only market) that hasn't apparently suffered from ticket price inflation.

the stock and housing market has been that way for 20 years too.

[Corpse]

Well, the economy began it's deflation period in 1991 which lasted until 2006, but that was short-lived as it hit deflation again 2009.

 

 The avg. ticket price has remained stable since 1993.

 

The economy has seen signs on improving over the past year or so, though, and tickets are actually being increased by 100 (~7% increase) starting in April.  I don't think this will really drive up the avg. ticket price much, though.  Discount days have become really popular over the past few years, so I'd expect them to become even more popular among audiences.  

[Corpse]

Oh yes, I want to thank 'eren jaeger' (Olive, druv, and others) for always posting my updates from KJ in this thread.  jaeger has been at it for, I think, over a year now!

[Mojoguy]

Is there a chance that Frozen can increase again on its 3rd weekend from the 2nd?

[Robertron]

10th biggest second weekend!

What's more important is that it's the only one in that entire list with an increase!The others all dropped at least 8%!!

[Mojoguy]

Frozen beating Toy Story 3 WW to become the biggest animated film should generate even more hype in Japan, which means even more people will go see it to see what the big fuss is about, right?