JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

There are no official daily numbers. We formulate them from partial attendance records, estimated average ticket price for the day and confirm them with monday studio actuals and wed update from screendaily

Edited May 14, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Quigley]

oh, ok

Edited May 14, 2014 by Quigley

[Incarnadine]

Changing exchange rates are notorious for confusing overseas numbers, especially for movies that have long runs where the exchange rate is likely to change several times over the run. Spirited away is a good example, most places have either $230m US or $244m US as the total in $, quite a difference.

For Frozen we seem to have a range of about $3m currently, $164.4m to $167.4m as of last Sunday

[Quigley]

Can I upload a picture? How do I do that?

Edited May 14, 2014 by Quigley

[chuck0]

Can I upload a picture? How do I do that?

i usually use imgur.com ... just go to that site, upload the image and use that in here.and numbers looking good. Would be awsone if it really can stay above 7m.

[mfantin65]

Toho Movix Kinezo 109 = 36% market share =

2.78 x

$15.00= 41.67 weekday TMK1x

$13.30= 37.00 sunday/holiday

$13.20= 36.70 weekend total

$13.10= 36.40 saturday

$12.00= 33.36 Wednesday

$11.40= 31.70 National discount day

 

Lets see how this works and compares to wed screen daily. We have 6 months of tracking. we need a more consistent multiplier

 

..............Toho.....Tohox...Total........TMK1.....TMK1x....Total 

Mon......12496 .....75........0.937m...23181.....41.67......0.965m 

Tue.......10550 .....75........0.791......19322......41.67......0.805

Wed......35574......55........1.956......58195......33.36......1.941

 

Total.....58620..................3.684m..100698....................3.711m

 

Edroger. This multiplier worked well for wed. I had to drop toho x from 60 to 55 when I noticed the evening was 10% stronger, otherwise I would have been 10% long with a 2.1m estimate. The collective multipier wasn't changed and it came up w a similar number. it factors in the weakness of the other chains. It'll prevent over/underestimating when there is another theater discount or seat change.

Edited May 14, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

BOM updated w sunday actual yesterday.

167,400,000

  3,712,000 Mon-Wed

171,112,000 should be the screen daily total tomorrow if they use the same sunday number.

Edited May 15, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Incarnadine]

BOM updated w sunday actual yesterday.

166,953,747

  3,712,000 Mon-Wed

170,665,747 should be the screen daily total tomorrow if they use the same sunday number.

 

BOM still shows 164.4 on the foreign boxoffice page, but $166,953,747 if you actually click on Japan. They haven't changed the overseas total from 790.3m yet, it should be 792.8. 

 

With those numbers WW is 1,193,250,000. That is just 22,2m from IM as of Sunday, or about 18.5m as of today if the 3.7m mon-wed is accurate.

 

At this rate Frozen should be less than 10m away by the end of this weekend, that should mean passing IM3 happens sometime during the next weekend.

[mfantin65]

Edit

Edited May 14, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[edroger3]

Toho Movix Kinezo 109 = 36% market share =

2.78 x

$15.00= 41.67 weekday TMK1x

$13.30= 37.00 sunday/holiday

$13.20= 36.70 weekend total

$13.10= 36.40 saturday

$12.00= 33.36 Wednesday

$11.40= 31.70 National discount day

 

Lets see how this works and compares to wed screen daily. We have 6 months of tracking. we need a more consistent multiplier

 

..............Toho.....Tohox...Total........TMK1.....TMK1x....Total 

Mon......12496 .....75........0.937m...23181.....41.67......0.965m 

Tue.......10550 .....75........0.791......19322......41.67......0.805

Wed......35574......55........1.956......58195......33.36......1.941

 

Total.....58620..................3.684m..100698....................3.711m

 

Edroger. This multiplier worked well for wed. I had to drop toho x from 60 to 55 when I noticed the evening was 10% stronger, otherwise I would have been 10% long with a 2.1m estimate. The collective multipier wasn't changed and it came up w a similar number. it factors in the weakness of the other chains. It'll prevent over/underestimating when there is another theater discount or seat change.

 

 

BOM still shows 164.4 on the foreign boxoffice page, but $166,953,747 if you actually click on Japan. They haven't changed the overseas total from 790.3m yet, it should be 792.8. 

 

With those numbers WW is 1,193,250,000. That is just 22,2m from IM as of Sunday, or about 18.5m as of today if the 3.7m mon-wed is accurate.

 

At this rate Frozen should be less than 10m away by the end of this weekend, that should mean passing IM3 happens sometime during the next weekend.

 

  BOM updated w sunday actual yesterday.

  166,953,747

  3,712,000 Mon-Wed

  170,665,747 should be the screen daily total tomorrow if they use the same sunday number.

 

 

Unfortunately Screendaily don't have Japan data but total OS. Now, we need to see if the 790M$ of sunday is real or understimated like Japan's 164,4, at the moment updated at 166,9. I think BOM (like other sources), on sunday gives estimates from Rentrak BO essential service, and the correction with actuals is included in estimates of following week. Screendaily instead have only data provided by studios.

 

For what concern toho x, even if wednesday is discount day, it should do average with other weekdays, because we haven't official daily grosses but only mon/fri and sat/sun total. So my 72,9 toho multiplier is an 5-day average, that already include the discount day.

Edited May 14, 2014 by edroger

[Ray]

BOM still shows 164.4 on the foreign boxoffice page, but $166,953,747 if you actually click on Japan. They haven't changed the overseas total from 790.3m yet, it should be 792.8. 

 

With those numbers WW is 1,193,250,000. That is just 22,2m from IM as of Sunday, or about 18.5m as of today if the 3.7m mon-wed is accurate.

 

At this rate Frozen should be less than 10m away by the end of this weekend, that should mean passing IM3 happens sometime during the next weekend.

 

...so, 1.2B before the weekend?

[mfantin65]

Screen daily usually has an extra million that accounts for BOM os page shortage. Ill assume they have a good number.790,300,000 BOM OS3,000,000 Japan shortage3,711,000 Mon Wed797,011,000 want to get it straight for once.

Edited May 15, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

...so, 1.2B before the weekend?

saturday

[PatrickvD]

It's still difficult to grasp that IM3 is actually going down.

 

Very impressive.

[Incarnadine]

saturday

Edit- oops, forgot to take into account Mon-Wed, it does indeed look like Saturday for 1.2b

 

I say IM3 goes down Sunday May 25.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Incarnadine

[rhfqkddl45]

Wednesday 5/14 Admissions [4 Cinemas Total]

 

 

        Mon      Tue      Wed (5/14)

WK-10....23281----19430----58165----

 

 

 

*Wednesday Detail [Wk6-7-8-10]

 

*109

7208--7551--6141--6950

 

*Toho

31370--34536--28995--35574

 

*Kinezo

6863--7062--5919--6476

 

*Movix [Wk 9-10]

9193--9165

 

*blue=today admission

 

 

until wednesday, 5/14. total estimates = 17.45b yen

 

*estimate based on Japan official numbers. (until last sunday, 17.078b yen)

 

 

dollar estimates =  $171.4m (current exchange rate... 1 yen--dollar:  0.009822)

 

http://www.x-rates.com/calculator/?from=JPY&to=USD&amount=1

Edited May 14, 2014 by Hans13

[mfantin65]

Edit- oops, forgot to take into account Mon-Wed, it does indeed look like Saturday for 1.2b I say IM3 goes down Sunday May 25.

of course. Funny how its assumed without question that it'll do that by having another 7m weekend and a 90% hold next week while corpse is insisting on 30% drops any day now. How you say "drop you son of a bitch!" in japanese?if it does 7m this weekend im sure he'll raise his projected total to 216m.he may not like it, but SA 244 is going down like a mail-order bride. Edited May 14, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

Graphs again.

still say Spirited Away is out of reach, but Titanic isn't.

Like I said two weeks ago. Looks like a jet fighter hitting the after burners and going after a bogey. In two weeks SAs weeks will drop to 6m and you'll see FZ gain altitude on it again. I say bogey is intercepted at week 23. Right after Obon. Edited May 14, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Quigley]

 

I constructed this table using separate exchange rates (ER) for weekeend and weekdays. Weekend ER comes from BOM's weekend chart. Weekday ER is a weighted average of the daily ER (for the 5 weekdays). Weighting is approximately based on the daily gross (e.g. if Wednesday earned twice as much as Tuesday, the ER for Wednesday counted twice as much as the Tuesday ER in the weighting calculation). The daily ER were taken from: http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

 

The raw grosses (i.e. the ones in yen) were taken from BOM weekend charts.

 

This is nearly as accurate as possible, based on the data on this thread for daily grosses.

Gross is about $166.17M by May 11. Let's see to what extent Screen Daily's updated total supports this estimation.

[catlover]

BOM still shows 164.4 on the foreign boxoffice page, but $166,953,747 if you actually click on Japan. They haven't changed the overseas total from 790.3m yet, it should be 792.8. 

 

I think the number in foreign box office page is an estimate, judging by the number of zeroes in it ($164,400,000), and by the fact that It was updated on Sunday. The one in the Japan page comes out on Wednesday, and is the actual number. But they didn't update the estimate, and the overall OS number. So I don't think the different numbers were caused by exchange rates, but simply an estimate-actual problem.

 

Btw, I think Frozen have outgrossed HP2 and Bayside Shakedown 2 by now, and moved to #6 all time.

Edited May 15, 2014 by catlover