JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

It seems at the moment presales works well, we hope for...

A few sellouts already. A Frozen reward tomorrow after heated competition on the field. Might be in for another surprise. 

[mfantin65]

109.......10798 -17%kinezo...9594 -16%Toho.....44460 -14%Movix...16000 -8.5%Oy, evening even weaker.we can add one more type of day to the list chuck, field day. It'll happen again in Oct. If we're down this much because of that, itll be close to flat tomorrow from last sunday.

Edited May 25, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Cynosure]

After an increase last weekend, anything below a 20% drop would still be fine provided that it doesn't continue to have such drops in the upcoming weekends.

[SamComedian]

Don't worry people... all movies drop in the end... movies are not eternal... and Frozen too...

[keysersoze123]

Don't worry people... all movies drop in the end... movies are not eternal... and Frozen too...

 

[Cynosure]

Toho - Saturday :

 

44.460 (-14.5%)

Edited May 24, 2014 by Cynosure

[LABAS]

TOHO+109+KINEZOアナ雪合算 5/24（土）64852先週比　84.9% (76329)

[Omni]

109.......10798 -17%

kinezo...9594 -16%Toho.....44460 -14%Oy, evening even weaker.

Evenings are getting weaker and weaker, we can't rely on a boost from late shows anymore.

And it doesn't get to 300M with 15% from here on. 275M or so without any extended run (which won't happen). It needs to keep these damn single digit drops as long as it can.

Toho between 60/65k tomorrow. No field day so no excuse of sort. If it drops under 7M, it better at least stay flat the weekend after.

[mfantin65]

Cheer up people, get off the ledge. If this is a proper example, we have a sunday pop.Conan was up 37% sat to sun last year. Last week,  8086 to 9972 +23%

クロユリ団地 was up 44% last year. Is that a family movie?

Some of the other movies are flat from sat to sun last year. Maybe adult films.

a 40% pop would be 62000 matching last sunday and just a 7% drop for the weekend. 7.4m  Sat 5/25/2014*5431　54542　273　県庁おもてなし課*5145　38113　129　クロユリ団地*4623　61487　261　探偵はＢＡＲにいる２*4604　54477　222　名探偵コナン*4163　34693　227　図書館戦争*3983　25148　171　聖☆おにいさん*3979　29194　202　藁の楯*3894　43909　251　中学生円山*3169　40708　104　俺俺*2247　24197　*87　Steins;Gate*2159　17750　*95　モネ・ゲーム*2034　13079　*63　アイアンマン３（3D字幕）*1641　13467　*79　クレヨンしんちゃん*1418　15210　*97　仮面ライダー*1353　20027　110　バック・トゥ・ザ・フューチャー２*1221　12949　*76　リンカーン（字幕）*1185　13656　*80　アイアンマン３（字幕）*1045　18300　*93　アイアンマン３（3D吹替）**846　*3437　*25　コードネーム：ジャッカルTOHOサイト上映25分前販売数：20130526 （全集計）販売数　座席数　回数　作品名*7410　34035　119　クロユリ団地*6325　49392　211　名探偵コナン*5797　50783　256　県庁おもてなし課*4810　32438　211　図書館戦争*4636　59476　240　探偵はＢＡＲにいる２*4175　40154　226　中学生円山*4145　26012　188　藁の楯*4119　21729　153　聖☆おにいさん*3118　13684　*79　クレヨンしんちゃん*2355　34064　*92　俺俺*2176　*2768　**8　舞台「戦国ＢＡＳＡＲＡ３」－宴－大千秋楽ライブビューイング*1872　14625　*97　仮面ライダー*1759　14838　*78　モネ・ゲーム*1755　10640　*52　アイアンマン３（3D字幕）*1505　17732　*90　アイアンマン３（3D吹替）*1484　21748　*77　Steins;Gate*1293　18005　100　バック・トゥ・ザ・フューチャー２*1232　12264　*70　リンカーン（字幕）*1156　12441　*73　アイアンマン３（字幕）

[Noctis]

So should I brace myself for Elsa toppling Harry?

[chuck0]

So should I brace myself for Elsa toppling Harry?

 

Still a little early to tell for sure...

 

and all i want is for this weekend to stay above $7M. everything else is a bonus

Edited May 24, 2014 by chuck0

[mfantin65]

Evenings are getting weaker and weaker, we can't rely on a boost from late shows anymore.

And it doesn't get to 300M with 15% from here on. 275M or so without any extended run (which won't happen). It needs to keep these damn single digit drops as long as it can.

Toho between 60/65k tomorrow. No field day so no excuse of sort. If it drops under 7M, it better at least stay flat the weekend after.

You're forgetting summer midweek boost and there will be an extended run. All other top 5 films did.

 

Stop popping downers and smoke some hopium

[rhfqkddl45]

Note: TOHO Presales X [Weekends]

 

 

*4 Theaters [shibuya+nihonbashi+roppongi+hibiya]

 

-Today 5/24 ______ 2999 / 12776 - 23.4% (Toho 44460 x14.82)

 

-Last Sat 5/17____ 3453 / 12540 - 26.5% (Toho 51979 x15.05) 

-Saturday 5/3_____ 5630 / 11864 - 47.4% (Toho 82960 x14.7)

-Sunday 5/18______ 3837 / 11670 - 32.8% (Toho 61998 x16.15)

-Sunday 5/11______ 3846 / 9134  - 42.1% (Toho 57118 x14.85)

-Sunday 5/4_______ 7150 / 10106 - 70.7% (Toho 96537 x13.5)

 

 

*3 Theaters [shibuya+Roppongi+hibiya]

 

-Today 5/24______   2218 / 8950 - 24.8% (Toho 44460 x20.04)

 

-Saturday 5/17___   2558 / 8442 - 30.3% (Toho 51979 x20.32)

-Saturday 5/3____   3814 / 7757 - 49.1% (Toho 82960 x21.75)

-Last Sun 5/18___   2708 / 8086 - 33.4% (Toho 61998 x22.89)

-Sunday 5/11_____   2775 / 6908 - 40.1% (Toho 57118 x20.58)

-Sunday 5/4______   4858 / 7216 - 67.3% (Toho 96537 x19.87) 

Edited May 24, 2014 by Hans13

[mfantin65]

1.10m Mon +12%

0.77m Tue -2%

1.68m Wed -10%

0.72m Thu -17%

0.96m Fri -3.6%

 

5.23m midweek -12%

 

3.00m sat

 

189.43m Total

 

Projection

7.0 - 7.4 weekend

194.0m Total

19.82b Yen

 

Projected Range

278m Certain---- 12x last weekend is the floor

320m Likely------ 18x My gut here says  HP7.2 #4WW beat

362m Possible--- 24x E.T. beaten first run 

404m Domestic-- 30x Within the realm of "anything is f-ing possible", like IM3 going down once was and now is foregone 

Edited May 24, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[rhfqkddl45]

Saturday 5/24 Admissions 

 

*3 chains total

 

Wk-9...79235

LastWk.76329

Today..64852 -15.1%

 

 

*Toho

Wk-9...50503

LastWk.51979

Today..44460 -23.3%

 

*109

Wk-9...18022

LastWk.12973

Today..10798 -16.8%

 

 

*Kinezo

Wk-9....10710

LastWk..11377

Today....9594 -15.7%

 

 

*Saturday estimate - 310m yen ( $3m )

 

*Current Total estimate - 19.35b yen ( $189.8m)

Edited May 24, 2014 by Hans13

[Quigley]

I'm not convinced by these numbers. Last Saturday everyone expected a drop but it actually increased.

[Ray]

...so IM3 WW officially passed?

[Quigley]

Probably on Sunday, but yeah.

[mfantin65]

Tracking the true weekend multiplier. The column that holds steadiest and closest to it mean becomes the likely target.

Consistantly ascending total is too low a multiple, descending is  too high. Summer midweeks will cause an increase.

 

 

Wk   WE   Tot       12x      18x      24x     30x

 

 9)  7.2  167.4     253.8    297.0    340.2   383.4

10)  7.9  181.3     276.1    322.5    370.9   418.3

11)  7.0  194.0     278.0    320.0    362.0   404.0

Edited May 24, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Ray]

Probably on Sunday, but yeah.

 

According to BOM (which is slightly outdated, but outdated in favor of a safer estimation), Frozen needs roughly $188.7m in Japan to match Iron Man 3. Even if everyone here has so far overestimated Saturday (T E says 189.43, Hans says 189.8), I feel like that's well within the margin of error.