JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Rsyu]

This.Most everyone here seems to be estimating that Frozen would sacrifice at least (the equivalent of) $50 million by ending the theatrical run on July 16th. The home video marketing budget (which will advertise the Blu-ray, DVD, Digital, and On Demand/Rental options) is likely comparable to that number, though perhaps less since it's just Japan. That's not enough of a tradeoff to justify re-rendering and re-recording commercials, redesigning and reprinting millions of posters and store displays, re-coordinating related merchandise launches, canceling or delaying contractual shipping arrangements and store shelf allocations and even cross promotions with other companies, and of course paying for the labor and overtime to do all these things, which also diverts those workers and their salaries from working on other marketing campaigns that they were supposed to be working on by that point, and causing a snowball effect.Much of that budget will probably be spent on actual airtime, which you wouldn't think would be affected -- at least in the US, let's say you get a 30-second slot for a commercial during primetime. $100k for a lesser watched program, $500k for your bigger shows. And that's per 30 seconds. Multiply that by hundreds or more of commercials on network television for a movie release. You might figure, "Well, if they delay it, then they'll just pay that $100k per commercial for commercials a few months down the road instead of in mid-July." Problem is, they're probably already contractually obligated to that airtime by this point, assuming they were responsible in planning this marketing campaign. "Just use that airtime to market some of their other DVDs or theatrical releases." Problem is, it's not in the budget for those other campaigns. And even if they did find other Disney releases to promote during that airtime, now they have to buy up additional airtime later in the year. And while I'm on the subject of TV commercials, a single 30-second spot during the Super Bowl cost $4.5 million. Granted no single spot in Japan costs anywhere near that, but the point is demand and audience -- you've got to figure rates will rise during that prime summer vacation time. And again, that's per ad spot. Multiply by hundreds throughout the campaign.No company, not even the almighty Disney, can simply flip a switch and release a movie on home video. The wheels start turning well in advance. Why do you think that, even though The Little Mermaid Blu-ray came out in October 2013, and despite Disney becoming aware of the numerous errors by August and pressing corrected discs by September, Disney still shipped the erroneous discs in October and indicated that replacement discs shouldn't be expected in consumer hands until November? It's because there was no way to repackage millions of discs within 6 weeks of release, and a delay was completely out of the question and not worth it.Yes, delays happen, but usually only in extreme circumstances. If there's a problem somewhere in the production flow, then they have no choice but to delay. And even then, those delays cause the release to go over budget.Don't get me wrong, people, I would love to see this Blu-ray/DVD release delayed, so that Frozen can enjoy the "extended" (even though it should be a "normal") theatrical run and retain some hope of surpassing Spirited Away in yen. I WANT to see it happen. But with the massive marketing campaign associated with media releases, particularly one as high-profile as Frozen, the wheels on this likely started turning right around the time Frozen hit Japanese theaters, perhaps even well BEFORE that. Any delay would be extremely costly and impractical. Just because Disney is a multi-billion dollar corporation doesn't mean they can throw away tens of millions of dollars on redoing a marketing campaign. That's irresponsible, wasteful, and not fair to shareholders.Now, if there was concrete evidence suggesting that Disney would be forfeiting $100m, $150m, etc. (even concrete evidence of $75m might be sufficient) by pulling it from theaters in mid-July, a delay might be costly... but it'd be a worthy tradeoff. As it stands, Disney might not even be convinced that $50m beyond July 16th is guaranteed. But given the summer timing, home video sales and rentals ARE guaranteed, especially for a film as successful as Frozen.

All that I got from this post is that a delay is difficult but not impossible. You say there won’t be a much of a tradeoff between the extra money earned by delaying the release and the cost it would take to actually delay it, and brought up a number of facts to make your case. The only evidence I can bring forth to counter it is the entirety of frozen’s run. I’m pretty sure there was no concrete evidence to suggest that $200 million and counting was possible at the beginning of its run either.There are factors you haven’t calculated either. WDAS doesn’t make sequels but it relies heavily on its brand recognition. Pixar is big in Japan for that very reason. I can’t begin to estimate the potential value of having a WDAS release on top of the Japanese all time gross charts but I’d imagine that it would be very large and be a great incentive for people to go watch WDAS films in the future. So what if they lose a little by delaying? The potential brand recognition and restoration of faith in Disney animated films would more than compensate it down the road. Just looking at this current release and saying the loss from delaying a DVD release is not worth it would be short sighted to say the least. Edited June 6, 2014 by Rsyu

[Eldenfirefly]

Frozen beat Spirited Away? @@ 

 

And look at that chart? 3 months into the release, its still going so strong? Beyond amazing.

 

I can't wrap my head around it.  I thought Spirited away's numbers were so big and far above any other movies that they would never be surprassed in Japan. 

 

Its amazing...  @@ Are the box office analysts tracking the Japan box office amazed at Frozen's run?  It looks like one of those that come only once in a decade or something! ^^

[Rudolf]

A question has occurred to me:

 

Has any movie, anywhere, ever, been #1 in a country for its entire theatrical run?

in China a lot of foreign movies get only one month, but this market is very frontloaded

[LABAS]

MOVIX席数　　5/31（土）→6/7（土）　　　　　　　 SEATSアナ雪　　53,727　 　→　51,220　 　W13

[Ray]

All that I got from this post is that a delay is difficult but not impossible. You say there won’t be a much of a tradeoff between the extra money earned by delaying the release and the cost it would take to actually delay it, and brought up a number of facts to make your case. The only evidence I can bring forth to counter it is the entirety of frozen’s run. I’m pretty sure there was no concrete evidence to suggest that $200 million and counting was possible at the beginning of its run either. There are factors you haven’t calculated either. WDAS doesn’t make sequels but it relies heavily on its brand recognition. Pixar is big in Japan for that very reason. I can’t begin to estimate the potential value of having a WDAS release on top of the Japanese all time gross charts but I’d imagine that it would be very large and be a great incentive for people to go watch WDAS films in the future. So what if they lose a little by delaying? The potential brand recognition and restoration of faith in Disney animated films would more than compensate it down the road. Just looking at this current release and saying the loss from delaying a DVD release would be short sighted to say the least.

Oh, I agree, it would be incredibly shortsighted, and I think if corporations were run in a riskier manner, someone over there would be eager to stop the presses and put off the DVD indefinitely and milk the theatrical run for all it's worth. But with months of planning and tens of millions of dollars (or rather several billions of yen) or more already invested in marketing and advertising, it would be a huge undertaking simply to propose a delay, let alone execute one.Interestingly, Disney's formerly largest shareholder is someone I'd think would have the guts to back a delay of this nature and drum up support for a chance at the prospective benefits and milestones that could be achieved... but I don't know if anyone else with influence on Disney's business or financial decisions are as tenacious as Mr. Jobs was.

[rhfqkddl45]

Thursday 06/05 Admissions [ Last WK - Today ]

 

3 chains

toho...9496--7039 -26%

109....2013--1577 -21.7%

movix..3295--2720 -17.5%

 

*4 chains total..16659--12876 -22.7%

 

 

*11:00pm 4 chains combined Admissions ranking

 

*1　*12876　アナと雪の女王 (FROZEN)

*2　**5983　Ｘ－ＭＥＮ：フューチャー＆パスト(DOFP)

*3　**5011　ＭＯＮＳＴＥＲＺ モンスターズ

 

 

*Today estimate - 56m yen ($0.55m) 

 

*Total estimate - 21.64 billion yen 

 

*based on BOM - $207.7m + 3.97m = $211.67m (*est)

 

 

 

*DOFP today estimate - $0.27m ( total *est $4.9m )

Edited June 5, 2014 by Hans13

[rhfqkddl45]

 

NOTE: 4 Chains total Admissions [Toho+kinezo+movix+109 (34-38% market share)]

 

        Mon    Tue    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat     Sun

wk-10  23297--19445--58200--20165--23413--94012--112529 (Weekly gross - 1.45 billion yen) BOM - $14.3m

wk-11  26148--20036--48331--16780--22566--80802---99772 (Weekly gross - 1.31 billion yen) BOM - $12.9m

wk-12  41284--14855--46155--16659--20043--72832--174643 (Weekly gross - 1.38 billion yen) BOM - $13.6m

wk-13  37019--12719--33109--12876

[druv10]

Frozen Exceeds 17 Million Admissions, Breaking Titanic's Imported Admission Record!Disney's Frozen became the Most-Attended non-Japanese film of all time on Wednesday, exceeding 17 million admissions to overtake Titanic's 17-year record of 16.83 million admissions.Frozen has earned ¥21,582,200,000 ($211.6 million) with 17,018,400 admissions as of Wednesday, its 83rd day in release.http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20140 ... -flix-movi

[lab276]

Frozen Exceeds 17 Million Admissions, Breaking Titanic's Imported Admission Record!Disney's Frozen became the Most-Attended non-Japanese film of all time on Wednesday, exceeding 17 million admissions to overtake Titanic's 17-year record of 16.83 million admissions.Frozen has earned ¥21,582,200,000 ($211.6 million) with 17,018,400 admissions as of Wednesday, its 83rd day in release.http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20140 ... -flix-movi

16 year record, but still nice! Edited June 5, 2014 by lab276

[Incarnadine]

Posted by Corpse:

 

Top 50 Most-Attended Films of All-Time01 :: 23.50 million - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: 19.50 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)03 :: 17.02 million - Frozen (2014) [83 days in release]04 :: 16.83 million - Titanic (1997)05 :: 16.20 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)06 :: 15.50 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)07 :: 14.20 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)08 :: 14.00 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)09 :: 13.00 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)10 :: 12.87 million - Ponyo (2008)11 :: 12.60 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)12 :: 12.55 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962)13 :: 12.10 million - The Last Samurai (2003)14 :: 11.00 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)15 :: 10.69 million - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)16 :: 10.10 million - Avatar (2009)17 :: 9.72 million - The Wind Rises (2013)18 :: 9.61 million - Godzilla (1954)19 :: 9.00 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)20 :: 8.90 million - Armageddon (1998)21 :: 8.80 million - The Sinking of Japan (1973)22 :: 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)23 :: 8.55 million - Jurassic Park (1993)24 :: 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)25 :: 8.34 million - The Return of Godzilla (1955)26 :: 8.30 million - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)27 :: 8.00 million - Antarctica (1983)27 :: 8.00 million - The Da Vinci Code (2006)29 :: 7.80 million - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)30 :: 7.75 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)31 :: 7.71 million - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)32 :: 7.65 million - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)33 :: 7.60 million - Monsters, Inc. (2002)34 :: 7.56 million - Arrietty (2010)35 :: 7.50 million - The Adventures of Milo and Otis (1986)36 :: 7.33 million - The Sands of Kurobe (1968)37 :: 7.30 million - Alice in Wonderland (2010)38 :: 7.20 million - Toy Story 3 (2010)38 :: 7.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1964)40 :: 7.11 million - The Eternal Zero (2013) [163 days in release]41 :: 7.10 million - Bayside Shakedown (1998)42 :: 7.05 million - Monsters University (2013)43 :: 7.02 million - A.I. (2001)44 :: 7.00 million - Seven Samurai (1954)45 :: 6.95 million - Rookies (2009)46 :: 6.90 million - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)47 :: 6.80 million - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (2002)48 :: 6.70 million - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2002)49 :: 6.67 million - A Slope in the Sun (1958)50 :: 6.54 million - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back! (1998)Newest Entries

[edroger3]

Week 13 estimates

 

81 mon  37.017 43,67 122.896 $1.616.532
82 tue  12.713 43,67    42.207 $  555.177
83 wed  33.106 43,67 109.912 $1.445.739
84 thr  12.876 43,67    42.748 $  562.295
85 fri  17.228 43,67    57.195 $  752.326
86 sat  62.047 38,61 205.997 $2.395.645
87 sun  85.804 38,61 284.869 $3.312.889
                    total $10.640.604 -22% (219,0M$)

[KushAboveAll]

Does anyone now where to find a list of highest grossing movies in a single international market?

[edroger3]

Does anyone now where to find a list of highest grossing movies in a single international market?

Best non USA markets single run performances 150M$+ (from various sources)

 

Movie Country  BOM&C. Corpse China Forum

Spirited Away Japan   229,60 244,00

Frozen   Japan   211,60(EST)

Titanic Japan   201,00 212,00

Lost in Thailand   China   200,60

Journey to the West CtD China   196,70   199,80

BIENVENUE CHEZ LES CH'TIS France 193,70

Howl's Moving Castle   Japan   190,00 207,00

Avatar   Japan   186,70 188,70

Avatar   China   182,20   209.30

The Monkey King China   167,80

the untouchable France 166,10

Transformers DotM China   165,10   168,60

Ponyo Japan   164,50 164,50

Skyfall UK 161,10

Avatar   France 158,20

Avatar   Germany  157,50

Princess Mononoke Japan   157,00 164,50

Bayside shakedown 2 Japan   155,10 165,50

Harry Potter 1   Japan   152,90 163,70

Titanic 3D   China   150,07

Avatar   UK 150,00

Edited June 5, 2014 by edroger

[Quigley]

Weekday numbers were underestimated slightly.

 

1.60m Mon

0.60m Tue

1.20m Wed

Estimate: $3.4M

 

Actual is $3.6M:

ScreenDaily reports $837.2M by Wednesday

Since Deadline reported that Disney updated its as-of-Sunday total from $205.9M to $207.5M, then the total on BOM should go from $832M to $833.6M. This means that the movie made 837.2 - 833.6 = $3.6M on these 3 days. So the weekend drop might not be as big as the estimated weekday drops previously suggested.

 

http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/edge-of-tomorrow-climbs-to-33m/5072842.article?blocktitle=INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40079

Edited June 5, 2014 by Quigley

[edroger3]

Week 13 estimates

 

81 mon  37.017 43,67 122.896 $1.616.532

82 tue  12.713 43,67    42.207 $  555.177

83 wed  33.106 43,67 109.912 $1.445.739

84 thr  12.876 43,67    42.748 $  562.295

85 fri  17.228 43,67    57.195 $  752.326

86 sat  62.047 38,61 205.997 $2.395.645

87 sun  85.804 38,61 284.869 $3.312.889

                    total $10.640.604 -22% (219,0M$)

 

 

 

Actual is $3.6M:

ScreenDaily reports $837.2M by Wednesday

Since Deadline reported that Disney updated its as-of-Sunday total from $205.9M to $207.5M, then the total on BOM should go from $832M to $833.6M. This means that the movie made 837.2 - 833.6 = $3.6M on these 3 days. So the weekend drop might not be as big as the estimated weekday drops previously suggested.

 

http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/edge-of-tomorrow-climbs-to-33m/5072842.article?blocktitle=INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40079

 

So multiplier works very well this week.

Edited June 5, 2014 by edroger

[Annayya]

We are talking so much about Home Video release.

Can some one share the drop in box office (in the form of a graph preferably), for a movie before vs after the home video release.

 

A Japanese friend was telling me that the Frozen home video release wont affect box office by more than 15 to 20% per week as long as they keep playing it in a significant number of theaters and do the marketing to still get people into theaters.

[Empire]

Frozen's run in Japan is mind blowing and it doesn't look like it is about to stop. 

[Murgatroyd]

 

Weekday numbers were underestimated slightly.

 

1.60m Mon

0.60m Tue

1.20m Wed

Estimate: $3.4M

 

Actual is $3.6M:

ScreenDaily reports $837.2M by Wednesday

Since Deadline reported that Disney updated its as-of-Sunday total from $205.9M to $207.5M, then the total on BOM should go from $832M to $833.6M. This means that the movie made 837.2 - 833.6 = $3.6M on these 3 days. So the weekend drop might not be as big as the estimated weekday drops previously suggested.

 

http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/edge-of-tomorrow-climbs-to-33m/5072842.article?blocktitle=INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40079

 

 

Actual is ~351,120,000 yen, or $3.43M.

Japanese articles on passing Titanic give a total as of Wednesday of 21,582,200,000.  The total as of Sunday was 21,231,081,650.

[Ajipon]

If this week is looking at a 20% drop, that would mean a weekly drop of appx 10% from two weeks ago. Then next week would be interesting if it can hold another 10% drop. If it's another 20%, then the DVD release would be less relevant.

[Queen Elsa Arendelle]

Frozen wont stop in japan, but disney will stop frozen anyways. it has done it before, and will do it again! 

Edited June 6, 2014 by Queen Elsa Arendelle