JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Stewart]

Corpse:

 

Weekend Actuals (01/27-28)
01 (---) ¥264,991,300 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥264,991,300 ($2.4 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥169,304,100 ($1.5 million), -30%, ¥663,725,000 ($6.0 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK2
03 (03) ¥105,852,600 ($971,000), -25%, ¥7,052,226,400 ($62.3 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK7
04 (02) ¥104,758,400 ($963,000), -34%, ¥428,848,900 ($3.9 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) WK2
05 (05) ¥90,929,000 ($836,000), -22%, ¥295,972,900 ($2.7 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK2
06 (04) ¥74,823,700 ($688,000), -38%, ¥1,442,692,800 ($12.9 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK4
07 (06) ¥59,235,000 ($544,000), -32%, ¥2,544,550,400 ($22.7 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK7
08 (07) ¥52,360,700 ($481,000), -33%, ¥2,978,198,200 ($26.6 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK8
09 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), Space Battleship Yamato 2202: Karma Chapter (Shochiku Media Division) NEW
10 (---) ¥39,188,100 ($360,000), 0, ¥39,188,100 ($360,000), The Dark Tower (Sony) NEW
11 (09) ¥28,837,700 ($265,000), -35%, ¥1,954,345,300 ($17.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK7
12 (---) ¥26,014,000 ($239,000), 0, ¥36,466,750 ($335,000), Detroit (Long Ride) NEW

>The Crimes That Bind, based on the murder case novels by author Keigo Higashino, and the latest starring popular actor Hiroshi Abe, debuts atop the box office with 205,823 admissions sold over the weekend across 335 screens. This is a solid debut, one that's just 4% below the last film based on a Higashino novel and starring Hiroshi Abe, 2012's The Wings of the Kirin. Expect a total above ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million).

>Geostorm held well in its second weekend, and has guaranteed that it'll exceed the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone now. It'll be the first disaster film to reach the mark since 2009's 2012, remarkably. 

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi finally managed a good hold, but it's also fallen too far to take real advantage of it. ¥7.5 billion is still probably out of reach, but if it can hold onto enough screens come late-March, it might be able to crawl to the mark. I have it finishing with ¥7.3/7.4 billion ($65 million), and while respectable, it's certainly disappointing after its debut, and in regard to the totals of its predecessors. After seven weeks in release, Episode VIII in the franchise has exceeded 4.7 million admissions, and begins its slow crawl to the 5 million milestone. 

>Paddington 2 held well in its sophomore weekend, though not as well as the original. The first film experienced excellent holds early on, but its later holds were average/poor, so maybe the sequel can catch up then.

>The 8-Year Engagement and Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura continue their impressive runs, with the former having exceeded the ¥2.5 billion mark (and 2 million admissions) in its seventh weekend of release; while the latter will exceed the ¥3 billion milestone in just a few more days. 

>Space Battleship Yamato 2202: Karma Chapter debuts in ninth place despite only playing on 29 screens, but its weekend gross hasn't been released yet. Sometimes it take a few more days for limited releases from sub-divisions of distributors to be released, so I'll update it the number when it's available. 

>The Dark Tower is a huge bomb for Sony, only selling 30,995 admissions over the weekend on 235 screens and coming in tenth place.

[Stewart]

Corpse. Quite Weekend but still:

 

Weekend Forecast (02/03-04)
01 (01) ¥167,000,000 ($1.5 million), -37%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.9 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), The Scythian Lamb (Asmik Ace) NEW
03 (02) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), -35%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.1 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK3
04 (---) ¥90,000,000 ($820,000), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), Impossibility Defense (Showgate) NEW
05 (03) ¥66,000,000 ($605,000), -38%, ¥7,200,000,000 ($63.6 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK8
06 (04) ¥65,000,000 ($595,000), -37%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.4 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) WK3
07 (05) ¥56,000,000 ($510,000), -39%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.6 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK3
08 (06) ¥44,000,000 ($400,000), -42%, ¥1,550,000,000 ($13.9 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK5
09 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($595,000), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox) NEW
10 (07) ¥35,000,000 ($320,000), -40%, ¥2,625,000,000 ($23.5 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK8

Unexciting weekend, really. The Crimes That Bind should have little trouble claiming a second weekend atop the box-office. 

The Scythian Lamb is likely to be the weekend's top opener, but it's unlikely to be a contender for the top spot and will probably just manage to gross over ¥100 million over the weekend. 

Impossibility Defense is the widest debut this weekend, but it seems to have burned off a lot of interest by opening early on Thursday (taking advantage of the 1st of the month discount) since its pre-sales for Saturday are poor. Unless pre-sales are very misleading, it'll miss the ¥100 million mark and the Top 3.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will be aiming to debut in the Top 10 and if the Academy Awards are kind to it next month (BP win, primarily), go on to have a long, respectable run thereafter. 

I'm hoping the holdovers will hold better than pre-sales today are suggesting, but none of them appear headed for particularly good holds at the moment.

[Stewart]

Response from Corpse: (He apologises for the delays)

 

Weekend Actuals (02/03-04)
01 (01) ¥177,329,400 ($1.6 million), -33%, ¥722,044,900 ($6.5 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥129,147,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥129,147,000 ($1.1 million), The Scythian Lamb (Asmik Ace) NEW
03 (---) ¥128,192,400 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥203,599,800 ($1.3 million), Impossibility Defense (Showgate) NEW
04 (02) ¥100,376,600 ($922,000), -41%, ¥901,150,100 ($8.2 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK3
05 (03) ¥69,103,700 ($635,000), -36%, ¥7,209,767,400 ($63.7 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK8
06 (04) ¥64,281,000 ($590,000), -37%, ¥623,260,500 ($5.6 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) WK3
07 (05) ¥59,881,900 ($550,000), -34%, ¥412,744,200 ($3.7 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK3
08 (---) ¥49,561,600 ($455,000), 0, ¥85,052,200 ($782,000), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox) NEW
09 (06) ¥43,956,500 ($402,000), -42%, ¥1,555,251,500 ($14.0 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK5
10 (07) ¥34,891,000 ($320,000), -40%, ¥2,632,685,200 ($23.6 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK8

Weekend Actuals (02/10-11)
01 (---) ¥165,892,100 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥165,892,100 ($1.5 million), Tonight, At the Movies (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥149,291,400 ($1.4 million), -16%, ¥1,037,251,200 ($9.5 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) WK3
03 (03) ¥88,368,700 ($813,000), -31%, ¥418,985,300 ($3.8 million), Impossibility Defense (Showgate) WK2
04 (02) ¥82,762,100 ($761,000), -36%, ¥328,792,200 ($3.0 million), The Scythian Lamb (Asmik Ace) WK2
05 (---) ¥78,945,000 ($726,000), 0, ¥138,548,100 ($1.2 million), Manhunt (Gaga) NEW
06 (04) ¥72,715,000 ($668,000), -27%, ¥1,053,041,200 ($9.6 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK4
07 (05) ¥56,120,900 ($516,000), -19%, ¥7,322,304,200 ($64.7 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK9
08 (07) ¥44,507,800 ($409,000), -27%, ¥492,785,800 ($4.4 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK4
09 (06) ¥43,975,700 ($403,000), -31%, ¥746,056,600 ($6.7 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) WK4
10 (08) ¥38,215,000 ($351,000), -23%, ¥179,356,300 ($1.6 million), Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox) WK2

[Stewart]

Also update to top lists for 2018:

 

2018 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.125 billion ($9.9 million) / 737,467 [937] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥1 billion ↨
¥500 million ↨
¥399.2 million ($3.6 million) / 355,230 [366] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)
¥359.2 million ($3.2 million) / 303,089 [331] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid with Legend Riders (Toei)
¥330.1 million ($2.9 million) / 224,480 [673] - Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)
¥300 million ↨
¥297.2 million ($2.6 million) / 231,465 [401] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥264.9 million ($2.4 million) / 205,823 [335] - The Crimes That Bind (Toho)
¥264.1 million ($2.3 million) / 191,212 [441] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥262.9 million ($2.3 million) / 203,803 [320] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)
¥242.2 million ($2.2 million) / 170,593 [584] - Geostorm (Warner Bros.)
¥225.8 million ($2.0 million) / 169,100 [455] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)
¥200 million ↨
¥165.8 million ($1.5 million) / 126,490 [298] - Tonight, At the Movie (Warner Bros.)
¥159.1 million ($1.4 million) / 116,803 [285] - The Lies She Loved (Toho)
¥148.8 million ($1.3 million) / 110,618 [334] - Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei)
¥145.9 million ($1.3 million) / 118,798 [059] - Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 (Showgate)
¥137.2 million ($1.2 million) / 115,215 [281] - That is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho)
¥129.1 million ($1.2 million) / 95,156 [298] - The Scythian Lamb (Asmik Ace)
¥128.2 million ($1.2 million) / 93,045 [269] - Impossibility Defense (Showgate)
¥116.7 million ($1.1 million) / 93,103 [382] - Paddington 2 (Kino Films)
¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

 

 

2018 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥7.32 billion ($64.7 million) / 4.94 million [59] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥5 billion ↨
¥3.10 billion ($27.7 million) / 2.47 million [65] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.69 billion ($24.0 million) / 2.15 million [58] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.99 billion ($17.8 million) / 1.79 million [58] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)
¥1.57 billion ($14.1 million) / 1.24 million [E] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)
¥1.55 billion ($14.0 million) / 1.11 million [38] - Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)
¥1.26 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.06 million [E] - Kamen Hensei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid With Legend Riders (Toei)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.87 million [E] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥1.05 billion ($9.6 million) / 0.76 million [24] - Geostorm (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.5 million) / 0.86 million [16] - The Crimes That Bind (Toho)
¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

[BenedictL11]

How is Greatest Showman tracking in Japan?

[KP1025]

18 minutes ago, BenedictL11 said:

How is Greatest Showman tracking in Japan?

Quote

Yeah, a respectable/good total in that range [￥2-3 billion] seems likely to me. 

Fox is giving it a significantly wide release. I actually think it's their widest release in regard to theater count; gotta wait and see how the screen count/seating looks tomorrow. The pre-sales look solid to me at this point, as well, but the lack of any award buzz, like La La Land enjoyed last year, may keep its debut and first week in check. I'm sure it'll develop the strong legs that nearly every musical achieves in the market, though.

 

According to Corpse, somewhere in the $20+ million range seems achievable. 

[Stewart]

Weekend forecast via Corpse:

 

Weekend Forecast (02/17-18)
01 (---) ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥425,000,000 ($4.0 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) NEW
02 (01) ¥98,000,000 ($925,000), -41%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.4 million), Tonight, At the Movies (Warner Bros.) WK2
03 (02) ¥92,000,000 ($870,000), -38%, ¥1,275,000,000 ($11.7 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) WK4
04 (03) ¥51,000,000 ($480,000), -42%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.2 million), Impossibility Defense (Showgate) WK3
05 (04) ¥51,000,000 ($480,000), -39%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), The Scythian Lamb (Asmik Ace) WK3
06 (05) ¥50,000,000 ($475,000), -36%, ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), Manhunt (Gaga) WK2
07 (06) ¥35,000,000 ($330,000), -52%, ¥1,175,000,000 ($10.7 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK5
08 (08) ¥26,000,000 ($245,000), -42%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.1 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK5
09 (07) ¥23,000,000 ($215,000), -55%, ¥7,400,000,000 ($65.4 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK10
10 (09) ¥22,000,000 ($210,000), -47%, ¥825,000,000 ($7.4 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) WK5

Hurry up Spring... 

The Greatest Showman will enjoy a good debut as expected, and while it's currently tracking below La La Land, it could very well mirror its very leggy performance going forward. A total above ¥2.5 billion (~$25 million) would be likely if it opens near the forecast.

All of the holdovers are likely to experience some sizable drops following last weekend's good/great holds, and the holiday that followed last Monday.

And that's it, really; nothing else of note* this weekend unless one of the many limited releases manage to surprise and crack the Top 10 given how easy a position within is on this weekend.

*Star Wars: The Last Jedi will probably achieve a tenth consecutive week in the Top 10, but anything less than 12 (or 14, really, since that's the number to crack the Top 25 now)) isn't exactly impressive -- just thought I'd mention it since I doubt it stayed in the Top 10 for ten weeks in any other market.

[manny1234]

Regarding Black Panther potentials in Japan here is this from Corpse from WOKJ:

"Not much. There just isn't much of an audience for Marvel or DC in Japan, unless Spider-Man or Iron Man are heavily involved. ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) would be a successful total. Regarding black skin... I don't know."

 

CC: @feasby007

[KP1025]

Japan can be a huge market ($100+ million) for the right films, but unfortunately CBMs are not the ones. $10 million would be decent for Black Panther since it would be on par with GotG2, Wonder Woman, and Ragnarok. 

[Stewart]

Corpse: (Well done showman!)

 

Weekend Actuals (02/17-18)
01 (---) ¥390,710,000 ($3.7 million), 0, ¥508,151,200 ($4.8 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) NEW
02 (01) ¥107,279,300 ($1.0 million), -35%, ¥489,147,800 ($4.5 million), Tonight, At the Movies (Warner Bros.) WK2
03 (02) ¥69,524,300 ($658,000), -54%, ¥1,258,971,200 ($11.6 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) WK4
04 (03) ¥51,751,100 ($489,000), -41%, ¥579,172,800 ($5.3 million), Impossibility Defense (Showgate) WK3
05 (04) ¥41,944,600 ($397,000), -49%, ¥467,853,900 ($4.3 million), The Scythian Lamb (Asmik Ace) WK3
06 (05) ¥35,115,500 ($332,000), -56%, ¥233,981,200 ($2.2 million), Manhunt (Gaga) WK2
07 (06) ¥31,259,900 ($295,000), -57%, ¥1,155,459,400 ($10.6 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK5
08 (07) ¥27,893,400 ($263,000), -58%, ¥152,007,900 ($1.4 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare - 4D Re-Release (Toho) WK2
09 (09) ¥25,701,900 ($243,000), -54%, ¥7,404,758,300 ($65.4 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK10
10 (10) ¥24,657,500 ($233,000), -44%, ¥561,432,100 ($5.0 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK5

>The Greatest Showman enjoyed a very good debut at the box office in its debut, down just 6% versus the award-boosted La La Land last year. Opening across 405 screens, the uplifting musical sold an impressive 267,619 admissions over the weekend frame, and 355,081 admissions since opening on Friday. It achieved the biggest opening weekend for Fox since Independence Day: Resurgence. 

Audience scores are positive, and the increase on Sunday is encouraging, as well as the weekday results so far, so expect a leggy performance for this one. Most musicals already earn above average/great legs in the market, but well-received ones can often develop incredible legs and become significant performers. ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) is probably locked up, and ¥3 billion+ ($30 million+) is doable. 

>Tonight, At the Movies managed the best hold among a hard-hit Top 10 following last weekend's strong holds and holiday on Monday, and is the only holdover that was able to stay above the ¥100 million mark as well. It's going to be a challenge, but it might be able to reach the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone. 

>I failed to report that Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare, the limited 4D re-release of the 2016 film, made the Top 10 last weekend (7th place). The Detective Conan franchise has grown considerably at the box-office in recent years, and success of this 4D re-release of the 2016 film ahead of its direct sequel - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer - on April 13th is further testament to its growing appeal, even 22 films later. 

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi achieves a tenth-consecutive week in the Top 10, which is pretty good considering how quickly it fell out of the Top 10 in the majority of other markets (I don't think any other market managed 10 weeks, in fact). It's not, however, impressive for the market itself and is about to wrap up its run in the next few weeks. It appears that it'll reach the ¥7.5 billion milestone (and 5 million admissions), and that's a strong figure, but it's down a hefty 35% compared to The Force Awakens, and will end up being the lowest-grossing Star Wars film (excluding Rogue One) since the original trilogy...

[Stewart]

Comparisons as well:

 

Biggest Live-Action Musicals Opening Weekends [1998-]

¥1.065 billion ($9.7 million) / 729,114 [773] - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥439.0 million ($4.9 million) / 387,118 [334] - Mamma Mia! (2009)
¥426.0 million ($3.6 million) / 328,722 [342] - Into the Woods (2015)
¥415.8 million ($3.7 million) / 289,979 [308] - La La Land (2017)
¥398.7 million ($3.7 million) / 292,516 [400] - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2008)
¥390.7 million ($3.7 million) / 267,619 [405] - The Greatest Showman (2018)
¥334.0 million ($3.3 million) / 248,620 [269] - The Phantom of the Opera (2005)
¥295.4 million ($3.6 million) / 229,225 [360] - Les Miserables (2012)
¥282.4 million ($2.3 million) / 209,806 [259] - Chicago (2003)
¥218.6 million ($1.9 million) / 164,186 [507] - Annie (2015)
¥203.5 million ($1.7 million) / 152,800 [288] - Dreamgirls (2007)
¥130.0 million ($1.1 million) / 98,000 [157] - Moulin Rouge! (2001)
¥120.7 million ($1.4 million) / 88,994 [314] - Nine (2010)
¥119.9 million ($1.0 million) / 90,695 [225] - Hairspray (2007)
¥119.1 million ($1.0 million) / 87,000 [274] - The Producers (2006)
>¥100 million+

Highest-Grossing Live-Action Musicals [1998-]

¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) / 8.95 million - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥5.89 billion ($65.3 million) / 4.80 million - Les Miserables (2012) 
¥4.42 billion ($39.0 million) / 3.23 million - La La Land (2017) 
¥4.20 billion ($37.1 million) / 3.26 million - The Phantom of the Opera (2005)
¥3.50 billion ($28.9 million) / 2.65 million - Chicago (2003)
¥2.60 billion ($28.2 million) / 2.14 million - Mamma Mia! (2009)
¥2.38 billion ($20.0 million) / 1.85 million - Into the Woods (2015)
¥2.05 billion ($19.8 million) / 1.53 million - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2008)
¥1.92 billion ($16.1 million) / 1.50 million - Dreamgirls (2007)
¥1.40 billion ($11.8 million) / 1.11 million - Annie (2015) 
¥1.00 billion ($8.3 million) / 0.78 million - Moulin Rouge! (2001)
¥1.00 billion ($8.0 million) / 0.76 million - The Producers (2006)
>¥1 billion+

[SLAM!]

I have become very interested in seeing how a new anime film, Maquia: When the Promised Flower Blooms performs at the Japanese box office. The film looks very beautiful, and it is the directorial debut of writer Mari Okada, who has previously written anime shows such as Mobile Suit Gundam: Iron Blooded Orphans and The Lost Village and films like Anthem of the Heart. It uses many of the new animation techniques previously used by films such as Your Name and A Silent Voice to display detailed, breathtaking environments. So I am very interested in seeing how it does, and I am very interested in seeing if it does well.

[Stewart]

Greatest Showman doing very well, via corpse:

 

Weekend Actuals (02/24-25)
01 (01) ¥364,200,400 ($3.4 million), -07%, ¥1,351,019,800 ($12.7 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) WK2
02 (---) ¥282,930,700 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥282,930,700 ($2.6 million), Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa) NEW
03 (02) ¥85,592,700 ($803,000), -21%, ¥701,353,300 ($6.5 million), Tonight, At the Movies (Warner Bros.) WK3
04 (03) ¥54,163,900 ($508,000), -22%, ¥1,395,703,000 ($12.8 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) WK5
05 (---) ¥47,540,000 ($446,000), 0, ¥47,540,000 ($446,000), Let's Decorate the Promised Flowers in the Farewell Morning (Showgate) NEW
06 (04) ¥39,416,500 ($370,000), -24%, ¥679,426,200 ($6.3 million), Impossibility Defense (Showgate) WK4
07 (05) ¥27,658,800 ($259,000), -34%, ¥549,070,300 ($5.0 million), The Scythian Lamb (Asmik Ace) WK4
08 (08) ¥25,395,800 ($238,000), -11%, ¥203,146,900 ($1.8 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare - 4D Re-Release (Toho) WK3
09 (09) ¥21,384,800 ($201,000), -20%, ¥7,450,636,200 ($65.8 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK11
10 (07) ¥21,364,700 ($201,000), -32%, ¥1,209,113,800 ($11.1 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK6
11 (10) ¥20,543,700 ($193,000), -20%, ¥596,019,500 ($5.3 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK6
12 (06) ¥18,275,200 ($172,000), -49%, ¥294,175,800 ($2.7 million), Manhunt (Gaga) WK3

>The Greatest Showman delivered an excellent second weekend hold, down just 7% versus its opening last week. And not only is that very, very impressive, its weekdays were also very strong, coming in 23% above its opening weekend. It's delivering, so far, during the weekdays and the weekends, so expect a very long tun. A total of ¥3 billion+ ($30 million) is looking very possible.

>The Legend of the Demon Cat (Kukai) enjoyed a solid second place debut, selling 229,281 admissions across 307 screens. This film is a very rare Japanese-Chinese production, further showing the recent progress made between the two countries in allowing (and developing) films to be distributed in each nation. The film is directed by Chen Kaige (Chinese), and is based on the 2004 Japanese novel by Baku Yumemakura.

>Tonight, At the Movies (Color Me True) continues to hold well, and while it's not locked up yet, it is likely to crawl to the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone, giving Warner Bros. another domestic success.

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi manages to achieve an eleventh-consecutive weekend in the Top 10. As I've mentioned multiple times, it's down 35% compared to The Force Awakens and will become the lowest-grossing Star Wars film since the original trilogy; however, it will at least reach the ¥7.5 billion mark, a number that wasn't looking good a few weeks back.

The box-office has been unexciting, aside from a couple films, for the past month+, but with Spring quickly approaching, numerous big films will be released in the next few weeks to finally liven this up.

[SLAM!]

It's disappointing to see Maquia flop. But hopefully the film can still get US distribution.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)藤子プロ・小学館・テレビ朝日・シンエイ・ADK 2018

Weekend Forecast (03/03-04)
01 (---) ¥700,000,000 ($6.6 million), 0, ¥700,000,000 ($6.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥298,000,000 ($2.7 million), -18%, ¥2,075,000,000 ($19.5 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) WK3
03 (---) ¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥425,000,000 ($4.0 million), Black Panther (Disney) NEW
04 (02) ¥176,000,000 ($1.6 million), -37%, ¥750,000,000 ($7.1 million), Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa) WK2
05 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Shape of Water (Fox) NEW
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($940,000), 0, ¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), The 15:17 to Paris (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (---) ¥75,000,000 ($705,000), 0, ¥75,000,000 ($705,000), Principal: Am I a Heroine in Love? (Aniplex) NEW
08 (---) ¥60,000,000 ($565,000), 0, ¥60,000,000 ($565,000), Bungo Stray Dogs: Dead Apple (Kadokawa) NEW
09 (03) ¥53,000,000 ($500,000), -38%, ¥825,000,000 ($7.6 million), Tonight, At the Movies (Warner Bros.) WK4
10 (04) ¥35,000,000 ($330,000), -36%, ¥1,475,000,000 ($13.5 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) WK6

A lot is going on this weekend. The first weekend of March has been kicking off the start of the spring box-office season for years, but recently more and more studios are competing over the weekend. The weekend has also long been Doraemon's weekend to open every year, and with only a couple exceptions, the blue robot cat always comes out on top.

>Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island is the thirty-eighth installment in Japan's most-attended film franchise ever, and it looks possible that it could set a franchise opening weekend record. Some of the pre-sales data is missing this weekend, unfortunately, but it's outpacing last year's film by a decent amount based on what I've been able to compare. The Doraemon films regularly have one of the ten biggest opening weekends of the year, and since they've also been growing, they're creeping into the yearly top 5 opening weekends in recent years.

>The Greatest Showman will continue to deliver great numbers in the face of so many new openers. Its run so far is very reminiscent of La La Land this same time last year.

>Black Panther will be aiming for a second place start, but I'm currently projecting a third place debut. Either way, though, its pre-sales are good and its earnings from Thursday and Friday ahead of the weekend were solid as well. And don't let a possible third place debut fool you because its gross is very good for Marvel/DC. If it debuts near the forecast, it'll be higher than any superhero film from 2017 except for Spider-Man: Homecoming.

>The Shape of Water and The 15:17 to Paris were very close ahead of the weekend, but the former has the slight edge in Saturday pre-sales and should be considered more of the weekend film, so I'm predicting it'll be the one to round out the Top 5 over the weekend.

[KP1025]

Great hold for TGS. Black Panther also has a decent opening considering its genre. For comparison, Wonder Woman opened to ¥266,512,000 and finished with ¥1.34 billion ($12.2 million).

[Olive]

Weekend actuals

Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island 843M OW, +22% from last one

Black Panther 310M +34% over Thor 3, 503M after 4 days

[fastclock]

Hey Olive, thanks always for the numbers.

Where do you get weekend actuals from Japan?

Does mimorin site compile that number?

 

[Olive]

4 minutes ago, fastclock said:

Hey Olive, thanks always for the numbers.

Where do you get weekend actuals from Japan?

Does mimorin site compile that number?

 

http://eiga.com/ranking/

[fastclock]

4 hours ago, Proxima Olive said:

http://eiga.com/ranking/

Thanks. That is a cool site.