JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Tower]

If you put a lot of effort into making charts you should really back it up somewhere, since you never know when a site could suddenly go down. A lot of information was lost when the Mojo forums went away unannounced.

[LABAS]

toho by local time 2 pm44173last Sunday 39828 10%increase

[catlover]

Wait, what? Frozen increased from last Sunday's update? It looks like other movies recovered too today. Frozen's drop this weekend will be smaller that I thought. Sat-Sun might be bigger than its OW.

[mfantin65]

If the % increase sticks for the day,  that would be a 7000 increase from last sun. Yesterday lo

ssed 9000.  

2000 is only a 1.5% drop for toho. $8.2-8.4m for the weekend depending on ticket prices. 

Edited March 30, 2014 by mfantin65

[Olive]

Japan by 22:00 Sunday

Toho

3/16 64,414

3/23 72,866

3/30 79,636

 

109

3/16 14,850

3/23 15,582

3/30 16,398

Edited March 30, 2014 by Olive

[LABAS]

Toho updatetoday 80450last sun 72866today will definitely be the highestsingle day boxoffice for Frozen.

Edited March 30, 2014 by LABAS

[mfantin65]

TS3 just got upgraded from possible to probable.100m is a foregone conclusion.

 

That has to be al lot of sellouts. If it had more screen it could have a 10m weekend.

Or maybe its good they dont increase theaters. Makes people want it more if they get shut out. It'll keep the admissions and screen count up down the road to make for a huge golden week.

Edited March 30, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

10 reason why Frozen beats TS3. 1. Since 1998 no movie opening over 5m increased second weekend.2. Third weekend held nearly 100%3. Wider demo. First midweek (after reducing 2m for holiday) was 25% larger than TS3 after a much smaller OW.4. Two 20m dollar weeks, probably a third. TS3 didn't have one5. With wider demo mid weeks will hold stronger after spring break. 6. Golden week bump will add several million. 7. Ticket price bump will add a few million. 8. Sing along will add a few million in the land of karaoke. 9. I just dont seeit falling out of bed like SK in week 6.10. Frozen, baby, Frozen!

[keysersoze123]

10 reason why Frozen beats TS3.1. Since 1998 no movie opening over 5m increased second weekend.2. Third weekend held nearly 100%3. Wider demo. First midweek (after reducing 2m for holiday) was 25% larger than TS3 after a much smaller OW.4. Two 20m dollar weeks, probably a third. TS3 didn't have one5. With wider demo mid weeks will hold stronger after spring break.6. Golden week bump will add several million.7. Ticket price bump will add a few million.8. Sing along will add a few million in the land of karaoke.9. I just dont seeit falling out of bed like SK in week 6.10. Frozen, baby, Frozen!

 

historical trends says it will drop hard after next weekend. its inevitable. However strong movies will drop post holidays. We saw that in korea where the movie slowed down after 5 weeks. 

 

I dont see this beat TS3. Though I would be happy if it does. That would mean it will beat IA3 OS and TF3 WW.

[mfantin65]

historical trends says it will drop hard after next weekend. its inevitable. However strong movies will drop post holidays. We saw that in korea where the movie slowed down after 5 weeks. 

 

I dont see this beat TS3. Though I would be happy if it does. That would mean it will beat IA3 OS and TF3 WW.

In SK it was holiday. The numbers were pumped up by everyone, then came the big decline. Its only SB in japan and the kids bumped the mid week by only 50%. TS3 and MU saw 100% increases when summer started. Smaller increase, smaller decline later. Should be at 72m next sunday, another 20m week. Back out 5m for the spring breakers then a 20% decline from there and you have 12m. 84m total. May hold better than that. Over 100m entering golden week which could be 10m+ when comparing to TS3 Obon week. The table is set for it to make run.

Edited March 30, 2014 by mfantin65

[Incarnadine]

historical trends says it will drop hard after next weekend. its inevitable. However strong movies will drop post holidays. We saw that in korea where the movie slowed down after 5 weeks. 

 

I dont see this beat TS3. Though I would be happy if it does. That would mean it will beat IA3 OS and TF3 WW.

Looking at the 2 movies Frozen is often compared to for its Japan run (Monsters University and Toy Story 3), it does appear the 5th weekend is primed for big drops, although big is relative since the drops for MU and TS3 would be considered good in North America.

 

For future reference when Frozen has it's 5th weekend...

 

MU - $3,337,235 (-33.8%) - $58,727,268

TS3- $4,864,813 (-31.8%) - $76,990,462

[catlover]

Beating TS3 in yen or in dollar? Because I think Frozen will beat TS3 in yen and admissions, but to beat it in dollar is much harder. I'm worried about its 7th weekend, just before Golden Week. Thermae Romae 2, Partners the Movie 3, and TSAM2 open on that weekend. Their previous movies made 6b yen, 3.18 yen, and 3.16 yen respectively. So all of them could gross $30m+ or even $40m+. Detective Conan will be still playing too. Frozen will lose a lot of seats and screens. I hope it won't drop that big after spring break and make as much as possible before it's hit by those Golden Week movies. The good thing is, it will still get the holiday boost.

 

Btw, with only TS3 gross in yen (10.8b yen, around $105m), Frozen will still beat IA4 OS and TF3 WW. And I think it will get there.

Edited March 30, 2014 by catlover

[Corpse]

Pretty monstrous Sunday for everything.

 

I'll have weekend estimates up shortly (KJ is back up, so check there first in like 30 minutes)

[druv10]

Per Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates [03/29-30]

01 (01) ¥854 million ($8.4 million), -02%, Frozen (Disney) Week 3
02 (02) ¥277 million ($2.7 million), +02%, Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 4
03 (--) ¥245 million ($2.4 million), 0, Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) NEW
04 (--) ¥182 million ($1.7 million), 0, Team Batista: Final Kerberos's Portrat (Toho) NEW
05 (--) ¥159 million ($1.5 million), 0 The Snow White Murder Case (Shochiku) NEW
06 (03) ¥102 million ($1.0 million), -31%, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) Week 2
07 (04) ¥92 million ($900,000), -13%, Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 3
08 (05) ¥67 million ($650,000), -32%, God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) Week 2
09 (08) ¥39 million ($370,000), -21%, Silver Spoon (Toho) Week 4
10 (09) ¥31 million ($290,000), -34%, Saving Mr. Banks (Disney) Week 2

>Frozen continues its incredible run with one of the biggest third weekends ever. It exceeded ¥4.1 billion ($40 million) on Thursday, so it should now be over ¥5 billion with ¥5.1/¥5.2 billion (~$50/51 million) after 3 weeks, also one of the biggest three week totals ever.

It will begin to slow down starting this upcoming weekend, post-Spring Break, but it will already have accumulated a massive sum that ¥10 billion (~$100 million) is more than likely in reach.

>Doraemon looks like it's the only film to increase this weekend (though Frozen's estimate is close enough to an possible increase with actuals), but given its younger audience it's now much of a surprise. Many of the past films have already increase during this weekend. The latest film should be around ¥2.5 billion (~$25 million) now after 4 weeks.

Good debuts for all three openers.

>The latest Kamen Rider crossover film beat December's release by almost 10%, and is about even with last August's film, so it should be targeting a total of ¥1.2 billion (~$11/12 million).
>The movie adaptation of the TV drama Team Batista sees a solid debut and will have no problem reaching ¥1 billion+ (~$10/11 million).
> And The Snow White Murder Case is one of Shochiku's better openings in more recent months and should also find its way to ¥1 billion (~$10 million).

[mfantin65]

Beating TS3 in yen or in dollar? Because I think Frozen will beat TS3 in yen and admissions, but to beat it in dollar is much harder. I'm worried about its 7th weekend, just before Golden Week. Thermae Romae 2, Partners the Movie 3, and TSAM2 open on that weekend. Their previous movies made 6b yen, 3.18 yen, and 3.16 yen respectively. So all of them could gross $30m+ or even $40m+. Detective Conan will be still playing too. Frozen will lose a lot of seats and screens. I hope it won't drop that big after spring break and make as much as possible before it's hit by those Golden Week movies. The good thing is, it will still get the holiday boost.Btw, with only TS3 gross in yen (10.8b yen, around $105m), Frozen will still beat IA4 OS and TF3 WW. And I think it will get there.

In dollars. It is tracking ahead dollar wise. way ahead in yen. Are the movies you mentioned geared more towards children and males? Frozen is more women than anything else judging by midweek and especially ladies day numbers. Could cause frozen to lose screens. However, TS3 had huge competition for Obon but it had a huge 7th/Obon week , 18m on 498 screens it was up against the borrowers,110m. Bayside shake down 85m, 5-7 weeks. Inception, karate kid, new releases, Pokemon and others. 12 movies w 270-500 screens. it could hold. Edited March 30, 2014 by mfantin65

[edroger3]

My prediction in post #3113 was wrong. Friday over-overstimated.

[mfantin65]

Bom reported 22m OS increase to 674m. 21.5 for japan I assume. 51m  total

[catlover]

 

In dollars. It is tracking ahead dollar wise.  way ahead in yen. 

Are the movies you mentioned geared more towards children and males? Frozen is more women than anything else judging by midweek and especially ladies day numbers. Could cause frozen to lose screens. However, TS3 had huge competition for Obon but it had a huge 7th/Obon week , 18m on 498 screens  it was up against the borrowers,110m. Bayside shake down 85m.inception, karate kid, Pokemon and others all w 300-500 screens.  it could hold.

 

 

None of them are movies for kids, maybe TASM2. But Thermae Romae 2 appeals to women, so it could take some of Frozen's core audience. You're right, TS3 also faced a lot of competitions. What worries me is that those 3 movies open at the same time. While the screen losses for TS3 happened gradually, it will happened rapidly for Frozen. But Golden Week is big enough to accommodate all of them. And if one of those movies disappoints, Frozen could get the screens back.

 

Also

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya  1m

Top intl mkts for #Frozen cash: Korea $77.1M, UK $64.6M, Japan $50.5M, China $48.9M, Germany $48.1M, France $42.6M.

Edited March 30, 2014 by catlover

[druv10]

Per Corpse

 

Biggest Third Weekends/Three Week Totals (2001-)

Third Weekend (% change) / 3-Week Total -> Final Total - Film
¥1.205 billion (-11%) / ¥6.73 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion (-15%) / ¥6.67 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.078 billion (+05%) / ¥5.89 billion -> ¥11.80 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.012 billion (-16%) / ¥6.78 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥998.9 million (-21%) / ¥5.86 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥935.7 million (-20%) / ¥6.13 billion -> ¥10.90 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥890.0 million (-09%) / ¥7.22 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥854.0 million (-02%) / ¥5.10/5.20 billion -> ¥??.?? billion - Frozen (2014) *est*
¥848.1 million (-22%) / ¥4.98 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥799.6 million (-24%) / ¥4.86 billion -> ¥8.55 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥776.5 million (-05%) / ¥5.26 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥772.9 million (-30%) / ¥6.37 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥719.7 million (-23%) / ¥5.95 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥710.3 million (-13%) / ¥4.91 billion -> ¥10.32 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥692.4 million (-37%) / ¥5.03 billion -> ¥8.87 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥683.5 million (-34%) / ¥5.18 billion -> ¥9.05 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥636.9 million (-06%) / ¥4.67 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥624.6 million (-27%) / ¥3.59 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥584.5 million (-15%) / ¥4.68 billion -> ¥8.04 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥580.4 million (-23%) / ¥3.79 billion -> ¥7.75 billion - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥574.1 million (-19%) / ¥3.55 billion -> ¥7.10 billion - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥559.1 million (-54%) / ¥3.68 billion -> ¥7.50 billion - Spider-Man (2002)
¥555.6 million (-31%) / ¥4.36 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥548.8 million (-09%) / ¥3.98 billion -> ¥9.25 billion - Arrietty (2010)
¥547.1 million (-13%) / ¥3.44 billion -> ¥8.96 billion - Monsters University (2013)
¥540.6 million (-22%) / ¥4.42 billion -> ¥9.17 billion - Star Wars: Episide II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥538.4 million (-09%) / ¥2.84 billion -> ¥9.37 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥536.5 million (-20%) / ¥3.66 billion -> ¥7.31 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
¥536.2 million (-26%) / ¥3.88 billion -> ¥10.80 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥533.8 million (-14%) / ¥4.74 billion -> ¥8.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
¥531.7 million (+46%) / ¥3.20 billion -> ¥8.80 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥525.2 million (-22%) / ¥5.31 billion -> ¥9.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)
¥522.0 million (-09%) / ¥2.79 billion -> ¥8.50 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥515.5 million (-12%) / ¥3.77 billion -> ¥7.65 billion - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
¥511.1 million (-28%) / ¥5.22 billion -> ¥10.02 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥506.1 million (-39%) / ¥4.48 billion -> ¥8.15 billion - Hero (2007)
¥504.8 million (-01%) / ¥3.18 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)

 

8th biggest 3rd weekend ever.   

[Omni]

8.4M is a pretty good number. That sub-7.5M projection ruined my digestion yesterday.

 

The target is 70M by Sunday - though I'm projecting 68M or so.