JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

I have a strong feeling that Frozen will hold very well after spring break, the price hike should not stop japanese audience to see a movie that is really worth watching in theatres multiple times and with a very strong WOM. Skewing older audience always helps you get really good legs in Japan. That is why I have confidence that the South Korea situation wont repeat here.Call me crazy but I am sticking with $230m total. The Spirited Away total in dollars unadjusted.

nice call. I like it. Ticket sales were 20% of the population in SK, they ran out of moviegoers and it crashed. That would be 300m in japan. Anything is possible. We need a 90+ % hold from the first week to see signs of 230m happening- 1.25m monday. 17m week.now we're cooking w grease! Edited April 3, 2014 by mfantin65

[Murgatroyd]

Call me crazy but I am sticking with $230m total. The Spirited Away total in dollars unadjusted.

 

You're crazy.

[LABAS]

TOHO admission day by day 2 PM Local

 

M   T W T F   S   S

First W。 ----------------------------------------18517-- 29035-- 38186Second。 9396--10976--21854--12231--33278--32340--39828Third。   14958--19027--46478--25446--21273--29380--44173Fourth。  25661--41430--43550--25701 

Today is also good. Better than Monday but higher ticket price

[catlover]

With higher ticket price it still has better 2pm update than Monday? And higher than last Thursday?    So new ticket prices don't seem to affect it then.

[edroger3]

So today #9 WW.

[Mojoguy]

Looks like the Japanese audience thinks Frozen is worth the extra cost, which means the tax hike will help end up adding a little more to the final gross in Japan.

Edited April 3, 2014 by Mojoguy

[Omni]

Okay, I'm not on their wagon, but the good thing about Boxx and mfantin's reasoning is that it's actually reasonable. Or at least, it sounds that way.

Except for this, maybe:

 

 

I am sticking with $230m total. The Spirited Away total in dollars unadjusted.

 

[mfantin65]

1% increase over last thur plus 9% price increase. Should come in at 41k+ 2.7mgonna be close to 16m week.hopefully Fri improves.that's more admissions than TS3 or Avatar had during any ot their holiday or summer weeks.If new year, GW or obon was its opening it would have done 23-25m midweek. Huge, and big things to come...

[LABAS]

OW。--------------------------- ---------------  49224--58491--64414Second。19967--21651--43281--26963--68297--67663--72506

Third 。 28363--34679-- 83765--40795--37218--58906--80440Fourth。  40807--69958---74515--39964

 

today BO is around 2.3~2.4 m . Now, Frozen has become world BO NO.9 of all time!

[mfantin65]

  2.6m Thur

13.4m week- last week nearly matched. tomorrow is all gravy on top

65.0m  total

[mfantin65]

Corpse

 

$50 million will easily fall if it opens to $8 million. A multiplier of 5/6 is the average multiplier outside of holiday frames, and well-received films can easily earn a 7/8 without holiday support, too. Multipliers for popular films released before Spring Break (in two weeks) rarely go under 8.An opening of ~$8 million should result in:$60/65 million: the floor or minimum goal (a lot will have to go wrong here; the plagiarism claims will have to go wide-scale, and I doubt they will).$70/75 million: the expected target (typical legs for a well-received film before holidays).$80/85 million: the ceiling or greatly exceeding expectations (it's very, very rare to see multipliers reach or exceed 10 outside of July/Dec.)

 

It would have to be frontloaded as hell to not reach $50 million, and the term frontloaded doesn't really exist in Japan. There is usually no more than 5 or so wide-releases a year that get multipliers under 5. Kamen Rider are some of the most frontloaded films, and even they get over 4 and sometimes 5.Multiplier breakdown:Less than 3: I've never seen a film have less than this, so I don't believe it's doable...Less than 5: Usually reserved for films with very niche appeal or very poorly received films released in January, February, June, or October (the four weakest months of the year).5-7: The norm. The vast majority of releases end up in this range. Even sequels and yearly installments such as Detective Conan or Pokemon have no problem getting here. Films with bad reviews can sometimes pull of a 5, too.8-10: Films that earn a multiplier in this range usually have holiday support and are released during robust times of the year. Great reviews and WOM also play a big role here. Also, films that play nearly exclusively to the senior demo generally have no problems ending up here.10+: Wide-scale appeal, plays well with the 40+ audience (the biggest demo in Japan), and has great reviews. A multiplier of this level almost always requires a release date around Obon (July) or New Year (December) to go this high, too, though there are a few exceptions.15+: Everything that a 10+ film has, but also includes repeat viewings. The Japanese rarely go to the movies, much less to see the same film two or more times (TV remains very popular in Japan). But when they do, big things happen. Fewer than 10 films have earned a 15+ multiplier in the past 15 years, and only one was released outside of July and December.

 

**********************************15 OW Multipier 113m***********************************

 

-------------------------------LOCKED--------------------------------

 

   ___________ ____________  

 

Phenom confirmed w that multiplier.

 

Anybody want to bet 10 Rupees, that's a tasty cup chai in New delhi, that it does a 20x?

Edited April 3, 2014 by mfantin65

[Omni]

I don't know if I would take that bet

 

The Eternal Zero got a multiplier of 24x. How could Frozen possibly be second to a film about kamikaze pilots?

 

180M is theorically doable then. If everything goes right, 1.2B will be reached. IM3 isn't completely safe.

 

I'd LOVE to see such an epic ending...

[Boxx93]

It will get there Omni...just be patient 

[Ray]

How many of those fewer than 10 films with 15+ multipliers in the last 15 years were Hollywood films? It's still early (spring break, etc.), but a few good holds and this could go into unprecedented territory.

[mfantin65]

I don't know if I would take that bet

 

The Eternal Zero got a multiplier of 24x. How could Frozen possibly be second to a film about kamikaze pilots?

 

180M is theorically doable then. If everything goes right, 1.2B will be reached. IM3 isn't completely safe.

 

I'd LOVE to see such an epic ending...

welcome aboard the crazy train

[BadAtGender]

Crazy train would be another 250m or so, then it could pass HP7.5.

[Mojoguy]

Pretty crazy run for Frozen in Japan. It was the perfect storm.  I don't see Disney or any other animation studio being about to replicate such a success like this again anytime soon.

Edited April 3, 2014 by Mojoguy

[edroger3]

How many of those fewer than 10 films with 15+ multipliers in the last 15 years were Hollywood films? It's still early (spring break, etc.), but a few good holds and this could go into unprecedented territory.

Frozen boxoffice run is totally unprecedented.

[mfantin65]

Consecutive weekend increases after open was one thing but 20m, 22m 24m weeks is just amazing and outside of holidays and summer.

Edited April 4, 2014 by mfantin65

[Incarnadine]

Frozen boxoffice run is totally unprecedented.

That's pretty much become Frozen's mantra. It pretty much annihilated expectations in every major market it opened, including domestic.