JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[druv10]

Per Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [05/10-11]

01 (01) ¥741 million ($7.3 million), -32%, ¥17.05 billion ($167.1 million) - Frozen (Disney) Week 9
02 (02) ¥284 million ($2.8 million), -47%, ¥3.10 billion ($30.4 million) - Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 3
03 (03) ¥164 million ($1.6 million), -62%, ¥3.40 billion ($33.4 million) - Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 4
04 (04) ¥145 million ($1.4 million), -61%, ¥2.25 billion ($22.0 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 3
05 (05) ¥124 million ($1.2 million), -52%, ¥1.50 billion ($14.7 million) - Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) Week 3
06 (--) ¥105 million ($1.0 million), 0, Wood Job! (Toho) NEW
07 (07) ¥77 million ($750,000), -54%, ¥540 million ($5.2 million), Enchanted Kingdom 3D (Toho-Towa) Week 2
08 (06) ¥71 million ($700,000), -66%, ¥1.40 billion ($13.8 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes Back (Toho) Week 4
09 (08) ¥63 million ($620,000), -58%, ¥430 million ($4.2 million), My Little Nightmare (Toho) Week 2
10 (--) ¥45 million ($440,000), 0, The Castle of Cagliostro (Toho) NEW
Note! Full weekend figures for this past weekend (05/03-04) hasn't been released yet, so most of these projections are based on last weekend's estimates instead.

A slow weekend following the insanely busy Golden Week this year.

The majority of films fall over 50% the weekend after Golden Week. Sometimes if a film skews old enough or has become a major box-office hit, sub-50% drops occur. And the younger the film skews, the harsher the drops.

>Frozen will have zero problems defending its #1 spot for a ninth-consecutive week, and will surely be the safe bet this weekend to avoid dropping over 50%. However, it's likely to have its weakest weekend to date seeing its first double digit drop. It only took 8 weekends to fall below its opening weekend! (I honestly wouldn't be surprised at this point if its 9th weekend is still higher than its opening weekend, though). It's grasp on the #1 spot at the box-office will remain unchallenged until the end of the month.

Frozen also exceeded ¥16.2 billion ($159 million) before heading into the weekend, so look for a 9-week total very close to, or slightly above ¥17 billion ($167/168 million).

>Thermae Romae II is the most-likely film not-called-Frozen to not drop over 50% and will stay in its secure #2 position. It should also have exceeded ¥3 billion ($30 million) come Sunday, keeping pace with its predecessor for a little while longer.

>Wood Job! is the only wide opener this weekend and will be lucky to open above ¥100 million ($1 million). Since it is the only wide opener, it is receiving a healthy amount of theaters/screens, so it shouldn't be a total dud.

>And finally, the 10th spot is pretty open for several of this weekend's limited openers. The remastered version of The Castle of Cagliostro (Hayao Miyazaki's film film) I believe has the slight advantage. I see a couple sellouts for it, but Blue Jasmine also looks to be doing alright and I wouldn't be shocked if it managed to make the Top 10. 

 

Most-Consecutive Weeks at #1 [1998-]

16 - Spirited Away [July 21-22 to Nov. 03-04] (2001)
14 - Armageddon [Dec. 12-13 to Mar. 13-14] (1998-1999)
10 - Avatar [Dec. 26-27 to Feb. 27-28] (2009-2010)
9 - Frozen [Mar. 15-16 to May 10-11] (2014)
9 - Howl's Moving Castle [Nov. 20-21 to Jan. 15-16] (2004-2005)
9 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! [July 19-20 to Sept. 13-14] (2003)
9 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets [Nov. 23-24 to Jan. 18-19] (2002-2003)
9 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone [Dec. 01-02 to Jan. 26-27] (2001-2002)
9 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace [July 10-11 to Sept. 04-05] (1999)
8 - The Eternal Zero [Dec. 21-22 to Feb. 08-09] (2013-2014)
8 - The Wind Rises [July 20-21 to Sept. 07-08] (2013)
7 - Alice in Wonderland [Apr. 17-18 to May 29-30] (2010)
7 - Hero [sept. 08-09 to Oct. 20-21] (2007)
7 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [Feb. 14-15 to Mar. 27-28] (2004)
7 - Spider-Man [May 11-12 to June 22-23] (2002)
6 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides [May 21-22 to June 25-26] (2011)
6 - Umizaru: The Last Message [sept. 18-19 to Oct. 23-24] (2010)
6 - 20th Century Boys: The Last Chapter [Aug. 29-30 to Oct. 03-04] (2009)
6 - Ponyo [July 19-20 to Aug. 23-24] (2008)
6 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [Mar. 03-04 to Apr. 08-09] (2006)
6 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [Nov. 26-27 to Jan. 07-08] (2005-2006)
6 - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith [July 09-10 to Aug. 13-14] (2005)
6 - Monsters, Inc. [Mar. 09-10 to Apr. 13-14] (2002)
6 - The Sixth Sense [Oct. 30-31 to Dec. 04-05] (1999)
6 - The Matrix [sept. 11-12 to Oct. 16-17] (1999)
6+

Frozen will earn its 9th-consecutive weekend at #1 this weekend, and will have a minimum of 11-consecutive weeks at #1. But it could potentially challenge Armageddon or even Spirited Away.

 

 

 

That would be great hold post GW. 

Edited May 10, 2014 by druv10

[mfantin65]

Oh shit it crashed

[mfantin65]

Just kiddingToday....23741Wk6.......23857Kinezo down 3% from 2wks ago109 up big because of discountsabove ow has a good chance. 7.1m-7.8m. Not sure how tohox will be.I dont think GW created burn off. It took WOM from, "oh you should see this movie" to "you havent seen it yet? Whats wrong with you?" The "dont want to be left out of the party" mentality has kicked in!300m double locked!!

Edited May 10, 2014 by mfantin65

[LABAS]

TOHO

Frozen 23741

rank 2~5 add together : 21063

 

Frozen still dominates today's market.

[Rsyu]

So no post GW crash which was the main concern for frozen this week. Anything over $7m weekend I'm happy with

[Omni]

Today....23741Wk6.......23857

Splendid! And it was even supposed to be deflated by 109's discounts!

[SamComedian]

Just kiddingToday....23741Wk6.......23857Kinezo down 3% from 2wks ago109 up big because of discountsabove ow has a good chance. 7.1m-7.8m. Not sure how tohox will be.I dont think GW created burn off. It took WOM from, "oh you should see this movie" to "you havent seen it yet? Whats wrong with you?" The "dont want to be left out of the party" mentality has kicked in!300m double locked!!

But the Frozen box office in $ today ( Saturday ) aprox is...?

[23IsEverywhere]

I'm not sure about Saturday, but I'd expect the weekend to be slightly above 6th, 7th, and 1st since the TOHO number is slightly deflated due to 109 discounts

 

Edit:  Please disregard, I am apparently unable to read and mistake 5s for 3s 

Edited May 10, 2014 by 23IsEverywhere

[SamComedian]

I'm not sure about Saturday, but I'd expect the weekend to be slightly above 6th, 7th, and 1st since the TOHO number is slightly deflated due to 109 discounts

then weekend estimates above than $7,5 million ? Is good, that is really awesome! Edited May 10, 2014 by SamComedian

[rhfqkddl45]

Saturday 5/10 admission 2:30 PM Local

 

added to LABAS previous Post

 

           m      t      w      t      f      s       s

First W   ---------------------------18517--29035--38186

Second    9396--10976--21854--12231--33278--32430--39828

Third    14958--19027--46478--25446--21273--29380--45305 (SB)

Fourth   25661--41430--43550--25701--22309--28912--39206 (SB)

five     11300---6600--15565---4400---3900--25002--38584  

Sixth     8552---3795--12737---3642---4167--23857--38683

7th       6919--15728--14489---3828---3850--25879--39237

8th      11905--42217--18274--21316---8933--43529--51195 (GW)

9th      60863--56650--12570---4430---4214--23741

 

 

Toho - 2:30pm 

 

Wk-5...25002

Wk-6...23857

Wk-7...25879

Today..23741

 

kinezo - 2:30pm 

 

Wk-6...5751

Wk-7...5685

Today..5306

 

109 - 2:30pm    

 

Wk-5...6098 (Seats-16323)

Wk-7...6392 (Seats-10730, Thermae2 Seats-14007)

Today..9866 (Seats-15823) - discounts day

 

Weekend Gross

 

Wk-5...$8,286,116

Wk-6...$8,046,563

Wk-7...$7,558,540

 

 

*red=Today admission

Edited May 10, 2014 by Hans13

[rhfqkddl45]

Saturday 5/10 admission 7:00 PM Local

 

 

toho *2:00-7:00pm

 

Wk-6....23857 - 45636 (+91%) 

Wk-7....25879 - 45317 (+75%)

today...23741 - 41015 (+72%)

 

 

109 *2:00-7:00pm

 

Wk-7...6392 - 10140 __+59%

Wk-8...9853 - 15355 __+56% (GW)

today..9855 - 15505 __+57% (discounts day)

 

 

Kinezo *2:00-7:00pm

 

Wk-6...5751 - 10635 (+85%)

Wk-7...5685 - 10330 (+82%)

today..5305 -  8656 (+63%)

 

*red= today 7:00pm update admission

[Omni]

It's down 8% from the 7th Saturday, whose morning business though was slightly inflated by novelty of the singalong and the 3d version. Should be a weekend between 7 and 7.5 million dollars.

If it somehow manages to stay above its OW, it will be crazy!

 

Edit: afternoon business looks quite weak, damn...7.5+ out of question perhaps, around 7M seems likely. Still pretty damn good.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Omni

[rhfqkddl45]

TOHO

Frozen 23741

rank 2~5 add together : 21063

 

Frozen still dominates today's market.

 

TOHO 7:00pm update

 

Frozen - 41015

 

Top 2-5 total - 39028

[edroger3]

Now vs 2 week ago comparaison (toho 19.00)

 

7wkd  now diff diff%

tot 45866 41015 -4851 -10,58%
 

2dj 30070 31181 +1111 + 3,69%
sa 6415  3141 -3274 -51,04%
3dj  5027  4408 - 619 -12,31%
2de  2787  1184 -1603 -57,52%
3de  1567  1101 - 466 -29,74%

 

More of the fall is by large decrease of singalong. This works in favor of a toho x increase (or at least i think..)

[Cynosure]

Are singalong tickets as or more expensive than 2D ? 3D ?

[edroger3]

Are singalong tickets as or more expensive than 2D ? 3D ?

Isn't a ticket price problem, the question is that singalong version was played largely only in toho cinemas, so with more singalong toho had more admissions but the same national market share, or better, the frozen's toho market share was higher than the other cinemas and that caused a decrease of toho x.

Edited May 10, 2014 by edroger

[catlover]

Ah yes, some theaters stopped screening the singalong version if I'm not mistaken. That explains the big drop for singalong at Toho.

 

Btw my total prediction is 255.8m.

[Incarnadine]

So, it's looking like a 7m or so weekend. A good, solid and sort of expected number.

First weekend under OW , but a 9th weekend only 500k under its opening is still awesome.

 

Does anyone know what the record for a 9th weekend in Japan is?

[Quigley]

This is slightly irrelevant to Frozen's box office, but one front where Frozen is losing compared to Despicable Me 2 is Youtube: Let It Go has ~220M views, whereas Happy has ~230M views

[Cynosure]

Spirited Away's 9th weekend was 650 million yen. That's probably the record.