JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Olive]

Cinderella was at 4.02B after 4th weekend and added another 1.71B.

I think another 2B for Zootopia is doable.

[LMAbacus]

25 minutes ago, Olive said:

Cinderella was at 4.02B after 4th weekend and added another 1.71B.

I think another 2B for Zootopia is doable.

 

That's only what, $18.4 million? It needs more than that to get $1 billion, and I think it can manage that. It's up 33% from last Monday, and up 6% from its first Monday; Cinderella only earned half its first Monday at this point.

[Omni]

18.4M would be more than enough, as it still has more than 10M left domestic.

[Olive]

5 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

 

That's only what, $18.4 million? It needs more than that to get $1 billion, and I think it can manage that. It's up 33% from last Monday, and up 6% from its first Monday; Cinderella only earned half its first Monday at this point.

It will make more than 10M in North america and current OS -Japan, 15M from Japan would lock 1B WW since it will add another 3M from Turkey.

Current total 970M

DOM +9m

OS-Japan 3M

Jpan 15M

Turkey 3M

[Quigley]

All the numbers since last weekend have been updated. Were they still estimates for so long?

[POTUS 2020]

Zoo up 31% WoW on Monday at 1900. Most holdovers down 30-40%. We got a runner

Shouldn't be much competition from now til summer.1B locked I guess.

Can Japan do the same for TJB during OBON? It's going to need $60m+

Edited May 16, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Scamp4553]

Oh, $1B is definitely locked for Zootopia.

[yjs]

yeah now it finally feels safe to say that $1B is locked. haha. kinda like how we had to make absolute sure to say $300M dom is locked.

[Foul01]

for a change, let's calculate the worst that Zootopia can do.

 

For Domestic,

Zootopia is at around $331.8M now.

If Zootopia drops at a weekly rate of 30% (which it most likely will not), it will end with $338.5M at the end of its run

 

For Japan,

Based on Japanese numbers that Zootopia has grossed 3,729,825,900 yen as of May 15... this is at least $34.2M (using the shitty exchange rate of 109)

The last weekend box office by Zootopia is around $4.2M.

For reference, 

Frozen made an additional $23M after its weekend box office of $3.8M.
Cinderella made another $26M after its weekend box office of $4.2M (actual number is $31M, but I took out $5M because there were two holidays included, assuming $2.5M for each holiday)
So we can safely say Zootopia will at least make another $20M from now on.
Final gross in Japan is at least $54.2M ($34.2M + $20M)

 

For OS-Japan,
As of May 15, the number is $603.8M ($638M - $34.2M) according to BoxOfficeMojo.

(to be honest, I think this number is bull and will be revised to be higher soon but let us just take it as it is for now)
Assuming OS-Japan stops making anymore money (which is frankly impossible),
The final gross of OS-Japan is $603.8M

 

So the absolute worst that Zootopia can do now is $338.5M + $54.2M + $603.8M = $996.5M

 

... so yeah, I would say Zootopia is pretty much locked for 1 Billion World Wide

[Jason]

The key thing at this point is that even conservative estimates of the final total in all markets result in $1B or something very close to it. While it's possible that Zootopia might fall short of a conservative estimate in one of those markets (for example if Angry Birds + DVD release takes a couple millions off of domestic projections), it's very unlikely that it would fall short in all markets, and very likely that it would exceed a conservative estimate in at least one market.

 

Agreed, $1B is locked.

[Quigley]

1 hour ago, Foul01 said:

For OS-Japan,
As of May 15, the number is $603.8M ($638M - $34.2M) according to BoxOfficeMojo.

(to be honest, I think this number is bull and will be revised to be higher soon but let us just take it as it is for now)
Assuming OS-Japan stops making anymore money (which is frankly impossible),
The final gross of OS-Japan is $603.8M

 

So the absolute worst that Zootopia can do now is $338.5M + $54.2M + $603.8M = $996.5M

 

You forgot Turkey.

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, Foul01 said:

for a change, let's calculate the worst that Zootopia can do.

 

For Domestic,

Zootopia is at around $331.8M now.

If Zootopia drops at a weekly rate of 30% (which it most likely will not), it will end with $338.5M at the end of its run

 

This is the one thing I'm waiting on this week to see. The Croods was doing amazing holds up until its first animated competition in Epic came out. It lost 58% of screens that week, and dropped 53%. It also had a Blu-Ray release in October, not June, which allowed it to make $9 million after the theater drop. Zootopia is tracking slightly worse for the same time of the year, so there's potential for it to miss getting an extra $7 million.

[Foul01]

8 minutes ago, Quigley said:

 

You forgot Turkey.

Turkey can be the icing on the cake 

[Planodisney]

There is no way, not 1 chance in a billion that Disney let's this movie wind down 997-999.  Just look at its domestic efforts to get Tangled over 200 and Frozen over 400.

1 billion is locked IMHO.

[LMAbacus]

I wasn't here when it happened, but did Disney really tack on $0.91 million to Tangled's total in its 26th week and pretend it had a higher theater average than it did in its third week like Box Office Mojo suggests?

[Quigley]

36 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

I wasn't here when it happened, but did Disney really tack on $0.91 million to Tangled's total in its 26th week and pretend it had a higher theater average than it did in its third week like Box Office Mojo suggests?

 

I think it played as a double feature with Disney's own Pirates of the Caribbean 4, which opened that weekend. A similar thing had occurred with John Carter, which was attached to some Avengers screenings.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/avengers-john-carter-drive-in-box-office--321610

Edited May 16, 2016 by Quigley

[LMAbacus]

Ah. Well in that case, where's the fudge accusation coming from? In that light its numbers look pretty legit.

[NYer4Life]

1 hour ago, Planodisney said:

There is no way, not 1 chance in a billion that Disney let's this movie wind down 997-999.  Just look at its domestic efforts to get Tangled over 200 and Frozen over 400.

1 billion is locked IMHO.

 

It's great to hear that the main consensus now is that Zootopia is locked for $1 billion!

 

Crazy to think of and just let it sink in...

 

Even if something catastrophic happens and the movie stalls at $996-$999; Disney will track the movie till Labor Day domestically I'm sure if it needs another couple million to push it over...

 

At this point though I don't think that'll ever be necessary.

 

Now the question is, when will Zootopia hit $1 billion? Sometime mid-June or early July?

[baumer]

What do you guys think Deadpool is going to do here?

[Quigley]

Just now, LMAbacus said:

Ah. Well in that case, where's the fudge accusation coming from? In that light its numbers look pretty legit.

 

I never got the whole "fudging theory", because the people who brought it up have no evidence. The fact that Disney chooses to increase the theater count in order for its films to make some last-minute bucks and cross a few milestones is true, but Disney (and all other studios) are not lying about the actual ticket sales. Fudging would be if they were making up the numbers, but no one has brought up any evidence of that.

 

Sidenote: Nikki Finke, as well as many other BO reporters, had made a point when Transformers 4 came out, that of course studios would love to be able to lie about their films. But the rivalry between studios has made everyone become expert box office trackers, so that essentially no one can cheat and studios are expected to report numbers as close to the actual one as possible. That didn't stop Paramount from lying about the Transformers 4 American opening weekend. The actual number was around $98M, instead of $100M, but I presume that the bad news about no film of Summer 2014 succeeding in reaching $100M in OW would have been much worse for the industry in general, so the other studios pretended that what Paramount did was OK.