JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

12 minutes ago, Planodisney said:

Dory and Pokemon released on the same day!!!

Hmmmm

Will this hurt Dory?

No. Pokemon isn't that big anymore, from what I hear. In any case, they can both have enough seats.

[CoolK]

i think 150mn is good bet for FD

[cannastop]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12194.html

Looks like Alice 2 is the singular big release this weekend. Nothing new for Saturday.

[cannastop]

17 hours ago, CoolK said:

i think 150mn is good bet for FD

That's actually a huge bar to reach.

[cannastop]

 

The 2016 Anpanman movie has a mere 107,156 available sampled seats for Saturday, July 2.

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12194.html

 

rank seats  shows avg seats theater screens % of overall market
*1　792364　2487　318.6　229　346　66.2%　アリス・イン・ワンダーランド／時間の旅 (Alice 2)
*2　206738　1063　194.5　209　288　72.6%　ＴＯＯ ＹＯＵＮＧ ＴＯ ＤＩＥ！ 若くして死ぬ(Too Young to Die)
*3　128736　*813　158.3　215　320　67.2%　６４－ロクヨン－後編 (64 Part 2)
*4　111879　*690　162.1　218　307　71.0%　植物図鑑 運命の恋、ひろいました (Evergreen Love)
*5　107156　*595　180.1　129　182　70.9%　それいけ！アンパンマン おもちゃの星のナンダとルンダ(Anpanman)
*6　*96888　*678　142.9　212　302　70.2%　貞子ｖｓ伽椰子 (Sadako vs. Kayako)
*7　*80379　*470　171.0　222　348　63.8%　ズートピア (Zootopia)
*8　*72938　*540　135.1　185　256　72.3%　クリーピー 偽りの隣人 (Creepy)
*9　*57857　*408　141.8　217　351　61.8%　デッドプール (Deadpool)
10　*55513　*405　137.1　116　177　65.5%　日本で一番悪い奴ら(Worst Bad Guys in Japan)

 

The good news for Zootopia is that it has 80,379 sampled seats on Saturday, a big boost from 65,005 on Friday. Deadpool was not as fortunate, as it declined from 68,749 on Friday.

Edited June 30, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

So Zootopia's Japan run isn't dead quite yet.

[LMAbacus]

I really want to know if Alice is going to break some admissions record on Friday or if they're wildly overestimating its potential. If it's really that popular, then opening on the first of the month is only going to boost its attendance. The first movie killed it at the box office despite getting horrible ratings on Yahoo, so the sequel getting just as bad reviews might not really hurt it if it's critic-proof.

[cannastop]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12195.html

 

Alice 2 has sold 21,711 sampled tickets by 2pm (or 1400 hours) on its 1st day, Friday. By comparison, Deadpool, which was also released on a discount 1st of the month, sold 25,985 sampled tickets by the same time, but on a Wednesday.

 

Anyways, this probably counts as a gigantic failure for Alice 2. It's not going to keep all those seats for long.

 

I'm actually surprised at how shitty this is, even considering how bad of a bomb it was in all of the other markets.

Edited July 1, 2016 by cannastop

[Stewart]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12195.html

 

Alice 2 has sold 21,711 sampled tickets by 2pm (or 1400 hours) on its 1st day, Friday. By comparison, Deadpool, which was also released on a discount 1st of the month, sold 25,985 sampled tickets by the same time, but on a Wednesday.

 

Anyways, this probably counts as a gigantic failure for Alice 2. It's not going to keep all those seats for long.

 

I'm actually surprised at how shitty this is, even considering how bad of a bomb it was in all of the other markets.

 

Does that look hopeful for Dory then? As it won't have to compete majorly with Alice 2?

[Olive]

Wow, Warcraft OD under 10M yen? LOL

[cannastop]

4 hours ago, feasby007 said:

 

Does that look hopeful for Dory then? As it won't have to compete majorly with Alice 2?

Well, yeah. But Alice 2 was never actually going to be a threat to Dory, even if it was a hit.

Edited July 1, 2016 by cannastop

[edroger3]

Alice 2 OD 1,3/1,4M$, less than 10% saturation.

[Mojoguy]

Holy SHIT! Alice 2 is a big failure worldwide!

USA WOM is still VERY important to Japan, and Alice flopping there and everywhere else REALLY didn't help.

[cannastop]

Corpse sez:

 

Quote

(C)2016 Disney Enterprises， Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Forecast (07/02-03)/2016年07月02日-2016年07月03日
01 (---) ¥475,000,000 ($4.6 million), 0, ¥625,000,000 ($6.1 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥162,000,000 ($1.6 million), -37%, ¥625,000,000 ($6.1 million), Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK2
03 (02) ¥109,000,000 ($1.1 million), -36%, ¥7,400,000,000 ($68.6 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK11
04 (04) ¥91,000,000 ($890,000), -36%, ¥675,000,000 ($6.3 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) WK3
05 (---) ¥85,000,000 ($830,000), 0, ¥85,000,000 ($830,000), Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW
06 (03) ¥82,000,000 ($800,000), -45%, ¥1,800,000,000 ($16.9 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK5
07 (05) ¥66,000,000 ($645,000), -42%, ¥1,450,000,000 ($13.7 million), 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK4
08 (07) ¥48,000,000 ($470,000), -37%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.5 million), Creepy (Shochiku) WK3
09 (06) ¥45,000,000 ($440,000), -58%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($18.4 million), Deadpool (Fox) WK5
10 (08) ¥43,000,000 ($420,000), -39%, ¥185,000,000 ($1.8 million), The Worst Bad Guys in Japan (Toei) WK2

>Alice Through the Looking Glass will easily debut atop the box office, delivering the biggest opening weekend since April, however...

Its Friday opening was pretty lackluster, selling around ~110,000 admissions for ~¥150 million ($1.4 million) based on estimates. And considering Friday was the 1st of the month (discount ticket day), that's pretty low. This doesn't necessarily mean the film is doomed this weekend or thereafter, but it's definitely not going to come anywhere near matching its predecessor's success (Alice in Wonderland is still Disney's biggest live-action film in the market).

The good news is that Saturday's pre-sales are quite solid and indicate that it should end up selling more tickets today than yesterday, suggesting it may simply be a weekend film (Friday is still a regular weekday in Japan at the box office). 

So based on Saturday's pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales, it's looking at maybe 300,000 admissions or so over the weekend. And predicting that its avg. ticket price is high, very likely due to so many premium format showings, it should open pretty close to ¥500 million ($5 million), and while a fair enough start, that'd be down a significant 60% compared to the first film... An opening of this level would also making reaching the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion ($50 million) very unlikely, and a total around ¥4 billion ($40 million) would be the target. 

>This year's Anpanman will probably open on par with all the others films, either just below or slighly above ¥100 million.

>Warcraft is also opening this weekend in Japan, but... it's being dumped as a limited release, playing on just 47 screens. It won't be able to make the Top 10.

 

Edited July 2, 2016 by cannastop

[Jason]

Quote

An opening of this level would also making reaching the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion ($50 million) very unlikely, and a total around ¥4 billion ($40 million) would be the target. 

 

If Alice 2 reaches ¥4 billion in Japan that will actually be pretty comparable to its drop in other markets. (Overall OS drop is about 70% atm, taking into account stronger USD but not ticket price inflation, and neglecting the small amount of remaining potential gross.)

[cannastop]

Quote

Usual Locations - Saturday Admissions (Two-Thirds of Overall Market)

[Sat., 07/02]
TW (LW) Admissions (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (---) 81,181 (------), [232/2,520], Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) NEW
02 (01) 34,345 (-39%), [213/1,077], Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK2
03 (---) 18,380 (------), [145/660], Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW
04 (02) 17,508 (-46%), [226/478], Zootopia (Disney) WK11
05 (03) 15,973 (-49%), [221/703], Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK5
06 (04) 15,159 (-39%), [216/682], Sadako vs. Kayako (Kadokawa) WK3
07 (05) 12,177 (-50%), [229/826], 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK4
08 (08) 8,574 (-34%), [118/413], The Worst Bad Guys in Japan (Toei) WK2
09 (06) 8,452 (-57%), [221/414], Deadpool (Fox) WK5
10 (07) 8,423 (-47%), [188/547], Creepy (Shochiku) WK3
11 (---) 7,928 (------), [29/85], BIGBANG: Made in Korea (Avex Pictures) NEW
12 (---) 5,411 (------), [28/120], Documentary of Kyosuke Himuro (Toho Video Division) NEW
13 (---) 4,926 (------), [7/13], Tsu Prince-sama Song o Maji LOVE LIVE 5th STAGE (Live-Viewing) NEW
14 (---) 4,880 (------), [33/147], Warcraft (Toho-Towa) NEW
15 (09) 4,727 (-55%), [211/275], Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) WK6
16 (15) 4,013 (-14%), [29/66], Er ist wieder da (Gaga) WK3
17 (10) 3,469 (-49%), [10/39], Mobile Suit Gundam Thunderbolt: December Sky (Shochiku) WK2
18 (---) 3,304 (------), [27/114], Setoutsumi (Broad Media Studios) NEW
19 (11) 2,961 (-56%), [153/281], Mars (Showgate) WK3
20 (---) 2,761 (------), [33/136], The Program (Long Ride) NEW
21 (12) 2,512 (-55%), [122/145], Money Monster (Sony) WK4
22 (---) 2,197 (------), [11/39], Brooklyn (Fox) NEW
23 (18) 2,145 (-26%), [213/217], Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK12
24 (13) 2,103 (-58%), [215/256], The Kodai Family (Toho) WK5
25 (16) 1,816 (-58%), [209/218], 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK9

>Alice Through the Looking Glass takes the top spot with the best debut since April, but does so in unspectacular fashion. 

The sequel to the uber-blockbuster hit Alice in Wonderland (still Disney's most-successful live-action film in Japan) was the widest release I've ever seen (so since at least 2010), but only managed to fill 10.3% of its available seating - averaging a disappointing 32 people per showing. 

So, needless to say, it didn't need so many seats/showtimes, but that's the advantage of being the first major release of the summer. As long as its Sunday can match or manage an increase over Saturday (it's looking pretty decent), then it should end up earning ~¥450 million (~$4.5 million) on close to 300,000 admissions over the weekend frame. Unfortunately a debut of ¥500 million+ is looking pretty unlikely, which would have been considered a good, if still underwhelming, opening.

If it opens near the projected figure, it'll be targeting a total of ¥4 billion ($40 million) in Japan, down over 60% compared to its predecessor.

>This year's Anpanman is performing quite well, but most of its theaters are accounted for at the usual locations; so while it'll achieve a third or fourth place ranking here for the weekend, it'll end up coming in a couple positions lower nationwide. 

>All of the holdovers suffered steep drops yesterday as a result of significant seating/screen cuts.

 

[cannastop]

Sampled theaters for July 2-3, 2016

 

rank admissions

*1　173322　1558167　4975　233　******　アリス・イン・ワンダーランド／時間の旅(Alice 2)
*2　*74271　*412304　2127　213　*67.5%　ＴＯＯ ＹＯＵＮＧ ＴＯ ＤＩＥ！ 若くして死ぬ(Too Young to Die)
*3　*43731　*163872　*958　226　*62.5%　ズートピア(Zootopia)
*4　*40207　*235772　1319　145　******　それいけ！アンパンマン おもちゃの星のナンダとルンダ (Anpanman 2016)

 

Alice 2 did worse than Corpse's prediction. I think it will be an actual of ¥425M at the most.

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12244.html

Edited July 3, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

Corpse sez

 

Quote

(C)2016 Disney Enterprises， Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Estimates (07/02-03)/2016年07月02日-2016年07月03日
01 (---) ¥440,000,000 ($4.3 million), 0, ¥595,000,000 ($5.8 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥176,000,000 ($1.7 million), -32%, ¥635,000,000 ($6.2 million), Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK2
03 (02) ¥106,000,000 ($1.0 million), -38%, ¥7,400,000,000 ($68.5 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK11
04 (04) ¥90,000,000 ($880,000), -36%, ¥675,000,000 ($6.3 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) WK3
05 (03) ¥87,000,000 ($850,000), -40%, ¥1,810,000,000 ($17.0 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK5
06 (---) ¥85,000,000 ($830,000), 0, ¥85,000,000 ($830,000), Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW
07 (05) ¥55,000,000 ($540,000), -47%, ¥1,440,000,000 ($13.6 million), 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK4
08 (08) ¥50,000,000 ($420,000), -29%, ¥190,000,000 ($1.8 million), The Worst Bad Guys in Japan (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥46,000,000 ($450,000), -58%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($18.4 million), Deadpool (Fox) WK5
10 (07) ¥44,000,000 ($430,000), -43%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.5 million), Creepy (Shochiku) WK3

>Alice Through the Looking Glass earns itself a comfortable and solid debut atop the box office, though failed at starting off the summer box office season with a bang.

Based on estimates, its weekend admissions should come in a bit shy of 300,000, which is quite disappointing. However, its avg. ticket price should be very high, so its weekend gross won't appear as bad by comparison (though it's still weak). If the estimate holds, its opening weekend will be: 67% behind Alice in Wonderland; 36% behind Maleficent; and 21% behind Cinderella. 

It's worth noting though that the film did open on Friday (all comparable films were normal Saturday openers), so its opening weekend is slightly deflated. But all in all, underwhelming, disappointing debut for Alice. It'll be aiming for a total of ¥3.5-4.0 billion ($35-40 million) in the market; and while that figure will look excellent compared to its totals from other markets (second only to China), it's still well below the blockbuster mark (¥5 billion) and will be down a significant 65-70% from its predecessor in the market. 

>Most of the holdovers experienced somewhat heavy drops (a drop approaching or over 40% is generally poor), but it's primarily due to losing so many seats/showtimes in the wake of Alice occupying so many. I would say they'll recover in the coming weeks since Alice clearly didn't need to be one of the widest releases of all-time, but the summer box office schedule is very crowded so expect them to drop out of the top 10 pretty soon..

 

[LMAbacus]

Looking ahead, August 11 is going to be a doozy. X-Men Apocalypse, Secret Life of Pets and Jungle Book are opening at the same time! I know that superhero movies don't play very well in Japan, but it should still be good for a $2 million opening had it been on a weekend instead of on a Thursday to kick off Obon. I wonder how the seats and showings will be distributed between the three.

[cannastop]

Another update of the multiplier list:
 
All-Time Best Multipliers (¥1 billion Earners) [1998-] 
01. 33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014) 
02. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
05. 23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008) 
06. 19.96 - Les Miserabes (Dec., 2012) 

07. 16.62 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016) [11 Weeks in Release]

08. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
09. 16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013) 
10. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
11. 15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
12. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
13. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
14. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
15. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
16. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
17. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
18. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
19. 13.64 - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
20. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
21. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
22. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013) 
23. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013) 
24. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
25. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
26. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
27. 12.16 - Wolf Children (July, 2012)