The Dark Knight Rises VS The Amazing Spiderman OS Battle

[Fullbuster]

We'll soon find out. But I think TASM will win easily OS.

Yeah, easily, we know the results.I expect 600M OS for TDKR (big jump compared to TDKR) and 900m for TASM.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

TASM will easily win.

[Bluebomb]

With just Asia, TASM will make gangbusters, especially since it has 3D and TDKR is not coming out in China.

Bolded for truth.

The more time that passes, the more it just feels like July is Batman's month. While, Spidey might have 3D, it loses it's imax theaters in 2 weeks AND has to share 3D theaters with Ice Age 4. There is too much going in TDKR favor right now. Yes, Spidey in the past has performed amazingly well overseas but none of those times has it faced a behemoth like TDKR in it' third week. Anyways, I was researching this and found that most of the international release dates are after domestic release, so this will not be following in Avengers path. The only ones opening before are the small Asain countries where it usually does good business no matter what. I am thinking the TDKR train just cant stop even without the China money.

TDKR - 650M

TASM - 600M

July is Batman's month because Amazing Spider-Man will have opened in almost all of Asia and in some parts of Europe in June. The only Asian country getting this in July is Malaysia.

TASM will crush TDKR OS.

[lab276]

July is Batman's month because Amazing Spider-Man will have opened in almost all of Asia and in some parts of Europe in June. The only Asian country getting this in July is Malaysia.

The end of June, it will be a mostly July movie.

[Bluebomb]

The end of June, it will be a mostly July movie.

June, end of June makes no difference. All of the countries that get TASM starting in June will have their grosses count towards a June release.

[yads]

This looks like being closer than a lot of us expected. OS both might end up around $650m.

Edited June 28, 2012 by yads

[Totem]

TDKR - 720MTASM - 550M

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Yeah. Seems will be very very close now.

[geometry]

Just going off gut feel alone, it really feels like the Batman franchise is due for a quantum leap in OS grosses. Just as BB laid the groundwork for TDK to gross monster numbers DOM, it feels as though OS audiences will be ready and receptive to TDKR now. I smell breakout, although no China release will hurt (is that 100% definite now?). TDKR OS $675TASM is much harder to call, but it fits the profile of popcorny, FX-y, 3D fluff that we know OS auds lap up. I also think those thinking it might struggle in the UK are overstating themselves somewhat... this will play huge to families and teens/kids here, mark my words. I think it'll find its way to around $50m (about £31m) no problem. And key Asian markets will post ridiculous numbers.TASM OS $700

[Olive]

TDKR OS $680

TASM OS $650

[grey ghost]

ASM - 750 m OSTDKR - 675 m OS

[jse]

DC movies have never made more overseas than they have domestically, with the exception of Batman & Robin. But, I will give TDKR the benefit of the doubt and say it might be another outlier. Over 4 years, OST increased 22.75% over AWE OS. That's a compounded growth of 5.26% per year. TDKR will be released 4 years after TDK so i'm giving it the same 4-yr %age increase... 468.6M -> 575M.. without china. China's TDKR gross for now i'll put at 80M, for a total of 655M.TASM is 5 years after SM3 so projected growth imo is ~29%, so 554.3M -> 716M.TASM - 716MTDKR - 655MTASM over TDKR

[Tower]

DC movies have never made more overseas than they have domestically, with the exception of Batman & Robin. But, I will give TDKR the benefit of the doubt and say it might be another outlier. Over 4 years, OST increased 22.75% over AWE OS. That's a compounded growth of 5.26% per year. TDKR will be released 4 years after TDK so i'm giving it the same 4-yr %age increase... 468.6M -> 575M.. without china. China's TDKR gross for now i'll put at 80M, for a total of 655M.TASM is 5 years after SM3 so projected growth imo is ~29%, so 554.3M -> 716M.TASM - 716MTDKR - 655MTASM over TDKR

Obviously if you assume all sequels will have the same percent growth than they will keep their places, but things don't usually work out that way in real life.

[bapi]

TASM - 690MTDKR - 610M

[jse]

Obviously if you assume all sequels will have the same percent growth than they will keep their places, but things don't usually work out that way in real life.

I never implied it works like that every time. It just saying it could work out like that in this case. I believed one was still more popular than the other, and just simply used a third franchise's audience growth rate that i felt would be reasonably representative of OS audience growth for these two franchises. I used a different reasoning to estimate the Avengers' OS gross and its looking like i'll by 100M short there. These are estimates, guesses essentially. I could be over or under. It's afterall a guess.

I forgot to take into account asian audience's love for 3D so i may be overestimating TDKR's take. Probably not you wanted to hear but my opinion shouldn't sway yours anyway.

[Tower]

I never implied it works like that every time. It just saying it could work out like that in this case. I believed one was still more popular than the other, and just simply used a third franchise's audience growth rate that i felt would be reasonably representative of OS audience growth for these two franchises. I used a different reasoning to estimate the Avengers' OS gross and its looking like i'll by 100M short there. These are estimates, guesses essentially. I could be over or under. It's afterall a guess.

I forgot to take into account asian audience's love for 3D so i may be overestimating TDKR's take. Probably not you wanted to hear but my opinion shouldn't sway yours anyway.

I wasn't arguing against spiderman beating TDKR, which is a pretty reasonable proposition, I was just saying that your reasoning for it seems to be based on a methodology that by definition would keep spiderman ahead. and everyone already knows that spiderman 3 beat TDKR, so you would assume they would take that into account.

[Fullbuster]

TASM will win the OS battle, just obvious.But TDKR will gross big too.I expect 790M for TASM and 650 for TDKR.

[Rudolf]

TASM >> TDKR because of 3D

[Totem]

TDKR will win, nothing to me is pointing towards anything different. TASM should finish under 600m or just over 600m by the looks of it.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Yes, TDKR now will win.How dramatically.